Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is undergoing significant regulatory changes in 2026, impacting competition in the food delivery and retail sectors, with a shift from aggressive price wars to a focus on service quality and consumer trust [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly Committee announced investigations into the food delivery platform market and the alleged monopolistic behavior of Ctrip, indicating increased regulatory scrutiny [1][2]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will eliminate VAT export rebates for solar products starting April 1, 2026, reflecting a broader regulatory tightening [1]. - The market supervision authority released a list of major cases related to "involution" competition, highlighting ongoing efforts to address unfair practices in various industries [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the food delivery sector is shifting from a "burning money" model to a focus on optimizing user experience and sustainable business practices [2][3]. - Major platforms are transitioning from merely delivering food to providing a broader range of retail services, indicating a strategic pivot towards becoming comprehensive retail infrastructures [4][5]. - The competition is expected to evolve into a "full-scenario retail war," integrating offline experiences, supply chain efficiency, and product quality [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly rejecting "involution" products characterized by extreme price cuts, signaling a demand for better quality and service [6][7]. - The market is anticipated to segment into two layers: one focused on efficiency and cost-effectiveness, and another on emotional and personalized experiences [8][12]. - The rise of local and individual creators is fostering a diverse ecosystem, enhancing consumer engagement and satisfaction [12][14]. Group 4: Food Safety and Transparency - Regulatory efforts are shifting from reactive measures to proactive prevention in food safety, aiming for a comprehensive regulatory framework to ensure consumer trust [9][10]. - New standards and regulations are being developed for pre-packaged food, emphasizing transparency and accountability in the food supply chain [9][10]. - The implementation of traceability systems and enhanced monitoring is expected to improve food safety and consumer confidence [10][11].

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between RMB 90 million and RMB 110 million, representing a decrease of RMB 134.735 million to RMB 114.735 million compared to 2024, which is a year-on-year decline of 60% to 51% [3][5] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for 2025 is also projected to be between RMB 90 million and RMB 110 million, with a similar decrease compared to 2024 [3] - The company’s performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by its financial department and has not been audited by registered accountants [4] Group 2 - In 2024, the total profit was RMB 257.973 million, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 224.735 million and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of RMB 222.646 million [5] - The company reported earnings per share of RMB 0.61 for 2024 [6] Group 3 - The primary reasons for the expected decline in performance include an ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the photovoltaic industry, increased competition, and rising costs of materials such as silicon and silver paste [7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its sales strategy by prioritizing profit, enhancing its market share in key areas, and leveraging its existing energy storage project reserves to support profitability [7] - The company aims to enhance its global supply chain, focus on customer needs, and invest in R&D and technological innovation to maintain its competitive edge in the energy storage sector [7] Group 4 - The company has provided a total of RMB 133.48 million in joint liability guarantees for its subsidiaries from December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, without any counter-guarantees [11] - The board of directors approved a guarantee limit of up to RMB 55.265 billion for 2026, which will facilitate financing and business operations for its subsidiaries [12] - The total amount of guarantees provided by the company to its subsidiaries is RMB 4.072998 billion, accounting for 177.85% of the company's latest audited net assets [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market is characterized by high volatility and elevated levels, suggesting that a "long money, long investment" strategy may be a rational choice for investors [3][5][6] - The A-share market's upward momentum is driven by the shifting balance of power between China and the U.S., leading to capital flow and value reassessment [9][10] - Recent market fluctuations indicate strong support levels, with a notable rebound after a brief dip below previous lows, reflecting a robust market sentiment [5][9] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is witnessing a consensus on the value of resources in a "weak fiat currency" era, with the Trump administration's interference in Federal Reserve decisions accelerating the price increase logic for commodities [3][6][7] - Coal prices are supported by a recent uptick in spot prices and favorable policies, with the coal sector attracting long-term investment due to its stable high dividend yield [4][15][18] - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with recent highs nearing $5,600 before dropping below $5,000, yet the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, suggesting potential buying opportunities during corrections [4][18][24] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. economy faces challenges, including concerns over "stagflation," which may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy options, increasing the appeal of gold as a hedge against asset depreciation [22][23] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine contribute to heightened market risk aversion, providing additional support for gold prices [23][24] - China's economic recovery may be accelerated by rising commodity prices, which could help break the negative feedback loop affecting domestic economic growth [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the organic silicon industry [1][100]. Core Insights - The demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, driven by applications in electronics, construction, manufacturing, and textiles, with significant growth expected in photovoltaic adhesives and new energy lithium battery adhesives [7][22]. - Supply expansion in the organic silicon sector is slowing down, with the industry entering the tail end of a capacity expansion cycle, leading to limited new capacity in the coming years [7][68]. - The "anti-involution" trend is positively impacting the industry's recovery from the bottom, with recent meetings among industry leaders resulting in price increases for organic silicon intermediates [7][84]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Organic silicon demand is projected to grow at rates of 8.0%, 7.0%, and 8.8% from 2025 to 2027 in China [7]. - The supply of organic silicon is expected to see limited new capacity additions, with only 45,000 tons projected from Xinjiang Qiya Group by 2027 [7][68]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of organic silicon intermediates has increased by approximately 27% from November 2025 to January 2026, reflecting strong industry support for price stabilization [7][84]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual decrease in inventory levels and maintaining a reasonable operating rate of 70%-75% [88]. Key Companies and Investment Focus - The report highlights key companies in the organic silicon sector, including Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, Sanyou Chemical, and Hengxing Technology, as potential investment targets [7][100].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高后大幅回落。本周螺纹表需继续下滑，产量短期趋稳，库存继续累积。热卷需求、产量均小幅上升，库存继续下 降，压力逐步缓解。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。随着有色贵金 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed signs of recovery after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66%. The ChiNext Index, however, rose by 1.27% due to strong performance from heavyweight stocks [1][20] - Over 2400 stocks rose while nearly 2900 declined, indicating mixed performance among individual stocks. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 400 billion yuan from the previous day, reflecting a notable decline in trading sentiment [1][20] Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced declines, with telecommunications and semiconductor sectors leading the gains. Recently strong sectors like metals and mining showed signs of correction [1][21] - The market has been characterized by high volatility, with fluctuations around the 4150-point mark. The influx of external funds initially indicated strong buying intent, but the market subsequently retreated following increased trading in broad-based ETFs [1][21] Investment Strategy - Given the current high volatility in both equity and commodity markets, a long-term investment approach is suggested as a rational choice for investors [1][21] Commodity Market Insights - The driving factors for both equity and commodity markets remain unchanged, with strong medium to long-term investment value still present. The "weak fiat currency" era has led to a consensus that resources are becoming increasingly valuable, accelerated by interventions from the Trump administration affecting Federal Reserve decisions [2][22] - Precious metals and industrial metals are seen as core choices for capital seeking to hedge against currency depreciation risks, pushing commodity prices into a slow upward trend [2][22] A-Share Market Dynamics - The core logic driving the rise of A-shares is the shifting balance of power between China and the U.S., leading to capital flows and value reassessment. The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry is influencing global capital allocation, providing long-term upward momentum for A-shares [4][24] - Quality stocks with core competitiveness in the A-share market, previously undervalued, are now experiencing value reassessment as China's national strength and industrial advantages become more pronounced [4][24] Future Outlook - On a macro level, both the U.S. and China appear to have found new solutions to their domestic issues. The U.S. is adopting a "shrinking plunder" strategy, focusing on core interests while avoiding overextension, which may have profound implications for the global economy and geopolitical landscape [6][25] - For China, the continuous rise in commodity prices, particularly precious metals, may help break the negative feedback loop of prices and accelerate the economic recovery process, potentially exceeding investor expectations [7][26] Investment Focus - The investment strategy should focus on "anti-involution + technology," as the gradual implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to lead to value reassessment in related cyclical sectors. The technology growth sector is also anticipated to receive strong policy support [8][28] - The coal sector has shown resilience, with recent price increases in thermal coal providing support for near-term performance. The market is expected to see a recovery in coal demand due to infrastructure investment and industrial recovery [10][29][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the building materials industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [49]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with some consumer building materials products seeing price increases due to rising raw material costs [2][5]. - The cement sector is expected to show resilience in profitability, supported by significant infrastructure projects and urban renewal initiatives in 2026, despite a projected decline in cement production in 2025 [4][41]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on high-end products and green transformation, while traditional segments face challenges from real estate market weaknesses [42][43]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing a trend of price stabilization and recovery, driven by demand for renovation and urban renewal, despite a slowdown in new construction [44]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - In Q1 2026, cement companies are expected to implement significant production cuts, with an average shutdown period of 46 days nationwide, aimed at balancing supply and demand [4][41]. - The average cost of P.O42.5 bulk cement is reported at 197 RMB/ton, with a gross profit margin of 17% [4]. - The industry is projected to recover gradually, contingent on effective supply-side policies and infrastructure investment [4][41]. Glass and Fiberglass - The flat glass market is expected to stabilize as production capacity is controlled and environmental standards are enforced, although demand remains weak due to real estate sector challenges [42]. - The fiberglass industry is in a recovery phase, with a focus on eliminating inefficient capacity and enhancing production quality through technological upgrades [43]. Consumer Building Materials - Major companies like Keshun and Sankeshu have announced price increases due to rising costs of raw materials, indicating a trend towards price recovery in the sector [44]. - The demand for renovation and urban renewal is expected to drive growth, while leading companies are enhancing their market share through brand strength and service improvements [44]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, including Shangfeng Cement, Tapa Group, and Huaxin Cement [4][45].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market has weak domestic demand but high exports, with the market sentiment turning weak and the disk fluctuating. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation and is expected to fluctuate. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to fluctuate within a range. The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by over - supply and policy concerns [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Catalog Steel - The steel disk rose and then fell sharply. Thread demand declined, production was stable, and inventory accumulated. Hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Steel mill profits were poor, and downstream acceptance was insufficient. The iron - water production stabilized. Domestic demand was weak, and exports were high. The market sentiment was weak, and the disk fluctuated [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk fluctuated. Global shipments decreased seasonally but were still strong year - on - year. Port inventory in China continued to accumulate.成材表需 remained low, and iron - water had no obvious recovery momentum. Steel mill import ore inventory increased, and winter - storage demand was released. The market is expected to fluctuate [2] Coke - Coke prices回调. The first - round price increase was fully implemented, and coke production decreased slightly. Inventory increased slightly, and trader purchasing willingness may improve. Carbon supply was abundant, downstream iron - water was at a low level, and steel profits were average, with a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke disk was at a premium, and prices were likely to fluctuate within a range [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices回调. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1395 vehicles. Coking coal production increased slightly, and terminal inventory increased significantly. Total coking coal inventory increased, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Carbon supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and steel profits were average. The coking coal disk was at a premium to Mongolian coal, and prices were likely to fluctuate within a range [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices回调. South32's quotes for South African semi - carbonate lumps and Australian lumps increased. Manganese ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly. Iron - water production was at a seasonal low. Silicon manganese production changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. Prices were affected by over - supply and policy concerns [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices回调. Some areas' power costs decreased, but semi - coke prices increased. Iron - water production was at a low level. Export demand was over 30,000 tons. Metal magnesium production increased, and overall demand was resilient. Supply changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. Prices were affected by over - supply and policy concerns [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Arctech, forecasts a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a decrease of 51%-60% year-on-year due to ongoing challenges in the photovoltaic industry [1] Industry Summary - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with overall operating rates declining across the supply chain, exacerbated by rising costs of materials such as silicon and silver paste [1] - Increased competition and external uncertainties are putting further pressure on profitability within the industry [1] Company Summary - Arctech aims to respond to the industry's challenges by prioritizing profit in its sales strategy, optimizing shipment structure, and focusing on high-value regions and long-term strategic customers to enhance market share [1] - The company has a substantial reserve of energy storage projects and contracts that are now entering a harvest phase, providing strong support for its profitability [1] - Arctech is committed to global supply chain management, customer demand orientation, and social responsibility, while also emphasizing technological differentiation and increased R&D investment [1] - The company plans to maintain its leading position in the energy storage sector and explore new markets and applications for sustainable long-term growth [1]

"2026年A股市场吸引力有望进一步提升，建议关注高景气核心资产、出海相关赛道以及供需格局向好的领域。"摩根资产管理中国资深环球市 场策略师蒋先威表示，随着外部不确定性减弱，叠加国内企业盈利周期触底回升，以及"反内卷"政策对部分行业产能扩张的约束，工业企业利 润修复进程有望加快。 宏利投资管理亚洲区股票投资部主管蔡尚琴持有相似观点，在她看来，2026年上半年，亚洲股票前景依然向好，主要受惠于有利的货币环境及 盈利能见度提升。她指出，全球投资者对亚洲股票的配置比例仍处偏低水平，意味着存在较大的重新配置空间。 21世纪经济报道记者李域 岁末年初，宏利投资管理、摩根资产管理、联博基金等多家外资机构相继发布 2026 年市场展望，看好A股配置价值已成为外资机构的普遍共 识。 联博基金副总经理、投资总监朱良则建议关注中国"转型"契机下的资本市场表现。联博基金认为，2026年较优配置应包含长期资产与部分红利 型、营收健康的企业，尤其关注科技AI、创新药与稳健新消费企业。 A股市场吸引力进一步提升 2025年，A股市场表现亮眼，上证指数上涨18.41%，创下近六年以来最优的年度市场表现。深证成指、创业板指全年则分别上涨29 ...