分析师：就业市场最终将推动美联储降息 金十数据5月8日讯，Renaissance Macro的Neil Dutta认为，就业市场最终将推动美联储的降息步伐。他表 示："劳动力市场状况已经降温。美联储凭什么认为这会自行稳定下来？它不能也不会，这意味着最终 需要采取政策应对措施。" ...

金十数据5月6日讯，Monex Europe的分析师在一份报告中说，在美联储周三的政策决定和加拿大周五的 就业数据公布后，加元面临下跌的风险。美联储可能会打压市场对其降息的押注，因通胀居高不下且就 业市场依然稳固。他们说，加拿大就业数据疲弱也有可能进一步加速对加元的抛售。与上周美国就业数 据形成对比的是，加拿大经济数据可能显示出一些与关税相关的疲软，这可能强化对加拿大央行6月降 息的预期。 Monex：加元短期内存在下行风险 ...

"抢进口"：短期为美国经济提供缓冲 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 一季度在"抢进口"影响下，美国 GDP 环比增速转负。抢进口行为或能一定程度延 缓关税对美国经济的冲击，短期内或不会立刻看到美国通胀与就业数据恶化。在就 业市场仍稳，通胀反弹风险尚不明晰的情况下，美联储短期内或难以降息。 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 登记编号 S0880525040119 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.05 2025-05-06 宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2025.4.28-2025.5.2），全球大类资产价格 中，主要经济体股市多数上涨。日经 225 上涨 3.2%，标普 500 上涨 2.9%，恒生指数上涨 2.4%，发达市场股票指数上涨 2.9%，新兴市 场股票指数上涨 1.9%。大宗商品价格涨跌分化，其中，IPE 布油期 货上涨 1 ...

Employment Situation Report - The U.S. added +177K new jobs in April, surpassing the +133K expected by analysts, while the unemployment rate remained at +4.2% [1][2] - Previous months' job numbers were revised down, with March's jobs revised from +228K to +185K and February's from +151K to +117K [2] - Hourly wage growth slowed to +0.2% from +0.3% expected, with year-over-year growth at +3.8%, down 10 basis points from estimates [3] Sector Performance - Education & Health Services led job growth with +70K jobs added, followed by +29K in Transportation & Warehousing and +24K in Leisure & Hospitality [4] - Federal agencies saw a minor job loss of -9K, which was lower than expected due to severance packages associated with recent layoffs [4] Market Reaction - The labor market's resilience is reflected in pre-market index movements, with the Dow up +425 points, S&P 500 up +60 points, and Nasdaq up +215 points [5] Q1 Earnings Reports - ExxonMobil reported earnings of $1.76 per share, beating estimates by 4 cents but missing on revenue [6] - Chevron posted earnings of $2.18 per share, beating estimates by 3 cents but missing revenue expectations by -2% [6] - Shell reported a strong earnings beat of +19.5% ahead of the market opening [6] Company-Specific Earnings - Wendy's reported earnings of 20 cents per share, in line with estimates, but revenues of $523.47 million slightly missed consensus [7] - Piper Sandler achieved a +69% positive earnings surprise with earnings of $4.09 per share and revenues of $383 million, outperforming consensus by +7.8% [8]

Employment Situation Report - The U.S. added +177K new jobs in April, surpassing the expected +133K [1] - The Unemployment Rate remained stable at +4.2% [1] - March's job numbers were revised down from +228K to +185K, and February's from +151K to +117K [2] Wage Growth and Labor Participation - Hourly Wages increased by +0.2%, lower than the expected +0.3%, with year-over-year growth at +3.8% [3] - The Average Workweek increased by 10 basis points to 34.3 hours [3] - Labor Force Participation reached 62.6%, matching the highs of September last year [3] Sector Performance - Education & Health Services added +70K jobs, followed by +29K in Transportation & Warehousing and +24K in Leisure & Hospitality [4] - Federal agencies saw a slight reduction of -9K jobs, attributed to severance packages from recent layoffs [4] Market Reaction - The positive employment report contributed to pre-market gains, with the Dow up +425 points, S&P 500 up +60 points, and Nasdaq up +215 points [5] Q1 Earnings Overview - ExxonMobil reported a +69% positive earnings surprise at $4.09 per share, with revenues of $383 million, outperforming consensus by +7.8% [6] - Despite the earnings news, ExxonMobil shares are down -15% year to date [6]

金十数据5月2日讯，美国非农就业报告将于北京时间今晚20:30公布，4月数据将首次揭示关税不确定性 对就业市场的潜在影响。狂风骤雨即将来袭，敬请投资者留意风险… 相关链接 4月非农增幅将大大下降？20:30揭晓 ...

财报季、关税成为美股市场的关键变量。 五一假期，美股正常交易，三大指数集体走强，纳指一度超2%，受财报超预期刺激，美股大型科技股全线大 涨，微软一度大涨超10%，Meta最高涨超8%。 与此同时，关税政策的变数仍持续扰动美股市场。美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，预计今天结束前将有 关税消息宣布。有分析人士称，预计这将是一项与印度达成协议的声明，有越来越多迹象表明印度能达成协 议。 另外，美联储密切关注的美国就业市场出现了意外动荡。美国劳工部最新发布的数据显示，截至4月26日当 周，首次申请失业救济人数为24.1万人，大超市场预期。美联储理事沃勒此前多次强调，如果美国劳动力市场 严重恶化，美联储可能会更多、更快降息。 大涨 北京时间5月1日晚间，美股开盘后，三大指数全线走强，截至22:50，道指涨0.78%，纳指大涨2.35%，标 普500指数涨1.37%。 受财报超预期刺激，美股大型科技股集体大涨，微软大涨超10%，公司2025财年第三财季全线超预期，云计算 业务强劲增长；Meta一度大涨超8%，第一季度广告收入录得两位数增长，大幅上调今年支出指引。另外，英 伟达涨超4%，博通、亚马逊涨超3%，特斯拉涨超2 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 18,000 to 241,000, the highest level since February, significantly above the market expectation of 223,000 [1] - The total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits rose to 1.92 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating a prolonged reemployment cycle for the unemployed [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims increased to 226,000, which helps smooth out weekly fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The ADP employment report indicated that U.S. hiring slowed to the lowest level in nine months, with some service sectors experiencing layoffs [2] - Despite expectations that the unemployment rate will remain low at 4.2%, the unusual fluctuations in initial claims have cast a shadow over the job market [2] Group 3 - Following the release of the jobless claims data, the U.S. dollar index fell by 17 points, currently reported at 99.74 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve official Harker hinted at a possible interest rate cut in June, emphasizing the need for patience in monetary policy amid high uncertainty [1][3][5] - Harker's statement reflects a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve in the current economic climate, aligning with recent comments from other officials, indicating flexibility in policy-making [3][5] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in June have significantly increased, with a 57.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 4.9% probability of a 50 basis point cut according to CME's FedWatch tool [4] Group 2 - Recent economic data presents a complex picture, with some indicators showing growth, such as a stable job market and increased consumer spending, while inflation pressures and global uncertainties raise concerns about sustainable growth [5] - The Federal Reserve must consider various factors in its rate policy, including economic growth, inflation levels, employment conditions, and global economic situations, while balancing growth and inflation control [5] - The current inflation level in the U.S. has decreased from its peak but remains above the Fed's 2% target, necessitating careful monitoring of economic data and global developments for future rate decisions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The changes in President Trump's immigration policy are not expected to have an immediate impact on the job market according to San Francisco Fed President Daly [1] Group 1 - President Trump's immigration policy changes are not anticipated to cause "immediate" effects on employment [1]