Evercore分析师克里希纳·古哈（Krishna Guha）指出，选择最终人选需在政策立场、市场认可以及维护 美联储政治独立性之间艰难权衡： 对特朗普而言，核心挑战在于物色一位既能强力推进降息议程，又具备足够公信力以顺利通过参议院确 认程序的人选。尽管共和党在参议院占有多数席位，但优势微弱，且部分党内资深议员仍坚定维护美联 储不受政治干预的传统。 前波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦（Eric Rosengren）在接受CNBC采访时强调，希望新任主席能恪 守"货币政策应基于联储法定的充分就业和物价稳定双重目标制定，而非屈从于政治压力"的原则。但他 坦言，最终人选能否坚守这一底线"仍存在变数"。 凯文·沃什：拥有深厚的联储政策经验，市场与联储内部对其熟悉，被认为具有独立性同时与政府 关系良好。但其过往在通胀问题上立场偏鹰派，对大规模资产购买持保留态度，这与后金融危机 时代的主流政策思路存在差异。 斯科特·贝森特：近期成为热门人选，具备市场背景，在政府内部被视为"冷静的力量"。然而，其 缺乏直接的货币政策制定经验，且与政府关系过于紧密，可能引发对其独立性的质疑。 凯文·哈塞特：经济学专业背景扎实，但在货币政策领 ...

Group 1 - The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. rose to 247,000, the highest level in eight months, indicating potential job market weakness due to trade policy uncertainties [1][3] - Many companies, including Procter & Gamble, Dow, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Microsoft, and Meta, have announced significant layoffs, with Procter & Gamble planning to cut 7,000 jobs, approximately 15% of its non-production workforce [2] - The U.S. private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the expected 115,000, marking the lowest level since the beginning of 2023, reflecting a slowdown in hiring [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.3% for the third consecutive time, with concerns about rising unemployment and inflation complicating its dual mandate [1] - Economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies has led to decreased employer hiring intentions, contributing to a softening labor market [3][4] - Reports indicate that states like Kentucky and Tennessee have seen a notable increase in unemployment claims, potentially linked to layoffs in the automotive sector due to import tariffs [3]

本周迎来CPI数据！就业市场和关税战将会如何博弈？黄金如何布局？阿汤哥正在用订单流实时分析， 点击观看 相关链接 实时黄金订单流分析 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The binding of the Trump administration's tariff and tax - cut policies will become more obvious, and it is highly likely that the two policies will either pass or be rejected simultaneously [2][11] - The US employment market is operating stably. In May, employment signals were contradictory, but non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the weekly wage index growth rate is close to the pre - pandemic level, which may not change the downward trend of core inflation [2][14] - The focus of monetary policy lies in the persistence of the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - CBO estimates that the OBBBA may lead to a reduction of $3.7 trillion in federal fiscal revenue and $1.3 trillion in expenditure from 2025 - 2034, along with $55.1 billion in debt costs, resulting in an increase of about $3 trillion in government debt. However, tariffs may reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion from 2025 - 2035, but will also cause negative economic impacts and inflation in the next two years [2][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy faces legal challenges, and the OBBBA is still under discussion in the Senate. The binding of tariff and tax - cut policies will be stronger [2][11] - In May, the US employment market had contradictory signals. ADP employment increased slightly, while non - farm employment grew strongly. Non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the non - farm hourly wage growth rate was stable [2][14] - From June 2 - 7, 2025, agricultural product prices mostly declined, and commodity prices showed mixed trends. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.55% week - on - week, and the price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export volume, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [22][28][29] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [83][85][87] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, LME copper spot settlement price, and production material price index, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [94][96][100] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [147][151]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes maintaining a cautious stance in a market characterized by narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the current economic conditions and market trends [1]. Weekly Recommendations - Suggested positions for the main board and small-cap sectors are both at low allocations, indicating a conservative approach [2]. Market Performance Summary - In the first week of June, the market saw a rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.88%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13%, and the CSI 500 index increased by 1.60%. Despite the macroeconomic challenges following April's tariff impacts, market trading activity has improved [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized, and Trump is expected to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair. In China, the central bank is set to disclose monthly reverse repurchase amounts, with June's scale rising to 1 trillion, which is seen as a rolling support for economic stability. The market is closely monitoring production and consumption data following May's export surge [4]. - Recent U.S. employment data shows a flat unemployment rate and a decline in labor participation, indicating a cooling job market. The upcoming nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair may influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts. However, a significant economic recession is anticipated before any major rate cuts occur, as the dollar's credibility could be at risk [4]. Technical Analysis - The market continues to exhibit a narrow oscillation pattern without a clear new trend direction. Institutional funds have flowed into both the main board and small-cap sectors, but these movements have not yet confirmed a new trend [4]. Summary of Market Outlook - The market experienced a slight rebound amid expectations of a U.S.-China summit, with increased trading activity. However, the Chinese economy is still grappling with insufficient domestic demand and fluctuating external demand, while the U.S. faces fiscal challenges amid significant external shocks. The global economic landscape remains fragile, and any changes in expectations regarding major legislative actions or trade tensions could trigger a new round of equity adjustments [5]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low allocation until new signals emerge, while the small-cap sector also remains at a low allocation due to a lack of reversal signals, with a preference for the main board [5]. Short-term momentum models recommend focusing on the banking and telecommunications sectors [5].

大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美第二轮贸易谈判将启，美国非农就业强于预期 海外市场多数上涨，美债利率大幅上行。 当周，海外多数上涨，纳指上涨2.2%，仅日经225下跌0.6%。 10Y美债收益率上行10bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌0.2%至99.2，离岸人民币小幅升值。WTI原油大涨6.2% 至64.6美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨0.6%至3308.2美元/盎司。 中美将启动第二轮贸易谈判。 特朗普6月6日宣布，将于6月9日在伦敦与中方开启第二轮贸易谈判，或重 点讨论协议到期后的关税走廊及调整机制、关键矿产出口恢复等问题。美国谈判代表将包括财政部长贝 森特、商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔。 5月美国非农就业强于预期，欧央行6月降息25BP。 美国5月非农新增就业13.9万人，市场预期12.6万人。 失业率维持于4.2%，但数据背后就业市场仍存在走弱迹象；5月美国ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5；欧央行6 月会议降息25BP，拉加德表示降息周期即将结束。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market shows short-term resilience, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations of 126,000 [1][6][7] - The healthcare sector (+78,000) and leisure and hospitality (+48,000) accounted for 90% of the total job gains, indicating that service consumption is a key support for the U.S. job market [1][7] - The manufacturing, retail trade, and government employment sectors were drag factors in May, with federal government employment turning negative, possibly reflecting the impact of layoffs [1][8] Group 2 - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate (U3) from 4.19% to 4.24% [2][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.7%, indicating wage stickiness that may support consumer spending [2][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-on-year increase of 5% in May, although it was lower than the previous value of 5.3% [2][10] Group 3 - The employment diffusion index decreased from 56 to 54.2, indicating a slowdown in job growth breadth, with the manufacturing employment diffusion index dropping to 41.7, the lowest since August 2024 [3][11] - The proportion of full-time employment fell to 49.3%, and the total employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.7%, the lowest since the pandemic [3][11] - The number of individuals transitioning from employment to non-labor force status rose to 5.41 million, the highest monthly increase, potentially due to federal administrative leave and tightened immigration policies [3][12] Group 4 - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, below the expected 62.6% [3][12] - The labor force participation rate for foreign-born individuals fell from 66.5% to 65.9%, likely related to the U.S. government's termination of Temporary Protection Status for Venezuelan nationals [4][14] - The Supreme Court's decision to end TPS could impact approximately 348,000 individuals, potentially reducing the labor supply by about 20,000 jobs per month over the next year [4][15] Group 5 - Overall, the May employment data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of rate cuts in June and July [5][17] - The market's limited expectations for rate cuts were reflected in the rise of major U.S. stock indices following the employment data release [5][17] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded by 11 basis points to 4.50% on the same day [5][17]

加拿大新增就业好于预期 但失业率升至7%的多年高位 金十数据6月6日讯，5月份，加拿大就业市场仍然低迷，又一个月的招聘活动低迷，失业率升至2016年 以来的最高水平（不包括疫情最严重时期）。加拿大统计局周五表示，上月加拿大新增就业岗位8800 个，增幅不大。随着加拿大人口继续扩张，劳动力市场的增长落后，意味着失业率连续第三个月小幅上 升，至7.0%。就业增长数据强于预期，因联邦选举引入临时工，分析师曾预计5月就业人数将减少 12,500人，逆转上月增加的约37,000个公共行政职位。在1月份就业激增之后，加拿大的就业几乎没有增 长，因为人们担心特朗普政府对贸易和进口关税的敌对态度打击了招聘意愿。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The average hourly wage in the U.S. has increased by 0.4%, surpassing the expected median of 0.3%, indicating a stable job market [1] Group 1: Employment Market - The average hourly wage growth of 0.4% is double the growth rate from April [1] - Job vacancies in April have shown an increase, further supporting the stability of the employment market [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Power - Year-over-year income growth stands at 3.9%, significantly outpacing the rate of inflation [1] - The increase in wages suggests that the purchasing power of American workers is improving [1]

【资讯导读】 ·美国扩大移民限制清单哈佛外籍学生签证遭波及 ·欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2% ·美国4月贸易逆差缩至616亿美元 ·美国初请失业金意外攀升 【市场资讯】 ·美国白宫宣布全面限制阿富汗、缅甸、伊朗等12国公民入境，并部分限制布隆迪等7国人员。特朗普同 步签署公告，收紧哈佛大学外籍学生签证政策，此举被解读为针对移民与教育领域的"国家安全审查"升 级。 ·堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周四表示担心关税可能重新引发通胀，称价格上涨压力可能在未来几个月显 现，但其全部影响可能要更久之后才能完全显现。这番讲话表明，施密德可能倾向于维持美联储政策利 率不变。 ·COMEX黄金期货下跌0.68%报3376.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货上涨3.31%报35.795美元/盎司。 ·COMEX黄金期货下跌0.68%报3376.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货上涨3.31%报35.795美元/盎司。 ·2年期美债收益率上涨6.19个基点报3.924%，5年期美债收益率上涨7.13个基点报3.995%，10年期美债收 益率上涨3.93个基点报4.395%，30年期美债收益率上涨0.61个基点报4.883%。 · ...