Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Low inventory and high aluminum - water ratio provide support, but the off - season demand restricts the upside. Follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend, macro - sentiment, and downstream start - up [4]. Summary According to Related Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, and the shutdown is expected to affect a total production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward, and winter storage was lackluster this year, providing limited price support [3]. Aluminum - On June 20, the weekly arrival volume of domestic port bauxite was 4.2009 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly departure volume of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 3.0638 million tons, a decrease of 1.0108 million tons from the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is expected to gradually emerge in late June [3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it may affect the import of alumina and bauxite from the Middle East. However, few of China's imported bauxite passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and China's alumina exports to the Middle East are small, accounting for 13% of the total exports from January to May 2025 [3]. - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry was strong, with the weekly start - up rate dropping 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% from the previous week. On June 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous Monday. The de - stocking rate weakened, but the low inventory still supported the market, while the spot premium gradually declined. The proportion of aluminum water remained high, and the market ingot production was still tight [3]. - Overseas macro - instability persists. Low inventory and the expectation of a high aluminum - water ratio support the aluminum price, but the inventory trend has been volatile. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on ore prices is gradually emerging, and the off - season demand pressure limits the upside space [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation with a strong bias, cautious long [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term increased volatility, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views - Overseas, the weakening of the US dollar index and the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have led to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, the strong consumption growth in May and the easing of geopolitical tensions and dovish Fed statements have supported domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, Fed Chair Powell is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran has reduced global risk aversion, weakening the US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in May is stable, with strong consumption but slowdown in investment and industrial production, which helps boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Equity Index**: Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continues to rise. With strong consumption, stable economic growth, and supportive factors, short - term cautious long. Focus on geopolitical risks, trade negotiations, and domestic policies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Powell's statement and the Fed's stance have affected the market. The deterioration of US consumer confidence and the easing of the Middle East conflict have put short - term pressure on precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices have affected the market. Although demand is not significantly deteriorated and inventory is falling, supply is increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. With the recovery of pig iron production and steel mill replenishment, and the increase in supply and inventory, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline in the medium term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, prices were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay in the short term. The production in Yunnan may increase, and the overall alloy production has little change. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline if oil prices fall [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, soda ash prices oscillated weakly. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: On Tuesday, glass prices oscillated strongly. Supply is stable at a low level, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate industry, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Fed officials' dovish statements have an impact. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has affected imports. Wait for the right time to short. Pay attention to trade negotiations and tariff policies [10]. - **Aluminum**: The easing of the Middle East situation has led to a decline in aluminum prices. There is significant inventory accumulation, and demand may weaken in the future [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, demand is weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term with limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by various factors [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weighted contract rebounded, but there are unverified market rumors. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices are affected by coal prices. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [13]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is at a low level with limited further decline, and demand is weak. If the photovoltaic industry increases production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's stance on the cease - fire and oil exports has affected the market. The market will focus on potential supply surplus later this year, and oil prices will remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline has led to a fall in asphalt prices. Although inventory is being depleted, the price increase is limited. It will follow the high - level fluctuation of crude oil in the short term [14][15]. - **PX**: Crude oil decline has led to a decline in PX prices, but the downward space may be limited. Demand is increasing, and the tight supply pattern will continue. It will follow the weak oscillation of crude oil [15]. - **PTA**: The basis remains stable, but the decline in crude oil may lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester inventory, there may be production cuts in the future [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of supply - side impacts will continue to suppress prices, with short - term increased volatility [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Crude oil price decline will lead to a decline in short - fiber prices. It will follow the polyester sector and oscillate strongly. Wait for the peak - season demand to deplete inventory [16]. - **Methanol**: The price has declined, but due to potential supply shortages and improved profits, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. - **PP**: The futures price has declined. With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to fall. Pay attention to the development of the conflict [17]. - **LLDPE**: The price has adjusted. With stable supply and demand and the decline in oil prices, the price is expected to continue to weaken with increased short - term volatility [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans declined, affected by soybean oil and crude oil. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for crop growth [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The high - level operation of oil mills has made the supply - demand of soybean meal gradually loose. The market sentiment is weak, and the basis is expected to remain unchanged [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Not enough information provided in the given text. - **Live Hogs**: The expected high - point of pig prices from August to September may not be high, and there will be selling pressure on the LH09 contract [20].

美联储巴尔：实际利率受到其他因素的显著影响，但美联储的政策确实发挥了作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed's policies will not be a long-term driver of housing supply [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current policies are not designed to address long-term housing supply issues [1] - Powell emphasized that the Fed's role is not to directly influence housing supply but rather to manage monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects a broader understanding that housing supply challenges require solutions beyond monetary policy [1]

金十数据6月24日讯，美联储哈玛克表示，利率只是适度具有限制性，官员们可能会在一段时间内保持 借贷成本稳定。哈玛克星期二称，尽管最近取得了进展，但美联储在达到通胀目标之前还有"一段距 离"。她还表示，官方数据是回顾过去的，可能无法完全反映当前的形势，包括近期油价上涨可能会推 高通胀预期。哈玛克说："在委员会开始非常温和的降息以使政策回归中性之前，政策很可能会维持相 当一段时间。" 美联储哈玛克：政策可能在相当长一段时间内保持不变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Hammack, expressed that the Federal Reserve's policy is "close to neutral" [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy stance, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may be approaching a balanced position regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy is perceived to be approaching a neutral stance [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current policy is seen as nearing neutrality, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1]

Core Insights - The current interest rates are only slightly restrictive and may remain stable for some time [1] - The Federal Reserve is still some distance from achieving its inflation target, and official data may not fully reflect recent changes, including the recent rise in oil prices [1] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with some suggesting as early as July and others indicating a wait until the fall [1] - Chairman Powell prefers to observe economic performance further before making any policy adjustments [1]

美联储哈玛克：美联储的政策具有适度的限制性。 ...

鲍曼（美联储副主席）支持最快7月降息，称就业市场风险超过通胀担忧，并暗示可能放松银行资本金要求。 古尔斯比（芝加哥联储主席）表示，若关税未推高通胀，美联储可能恢复降息。 黄金周一（6月23日）早盘高开后冲高3398附近受阻转跌，到欧盘前最低跌至3347附近，随后开始震荡上涨，欧盘上涨至3382附近后受阻回落下探3356，美 盘再次上涨，凌晨在33933/3394位置受阻后走跌，整体走震荡，日线收出一根带有上下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、中东局势 伊朗袭击美国驻卡塔尔基地，但未造成伤亡，也未封锁霍尔木兹海峡，市场风险溢价回落。 特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗达成全面停火，停火于美国东部时间24日零时开始，分两个12小时阶段执行，伊朗官方确认同意停火。 2、美联储政策 二、技术面 1、日线级别：周一，黄金于早盘及凌晨时段先后发起两次上攻，但均遭遇强劲抛压，呈现冲高回落态势，最终以阴线报收于日线图。从技术分析视角来 看，当前黄金价格上方的关键阻力位于3400-3405区域，该区域构成了短期上行的重要屏障。只要金价未能有效突破这一阻力区间，预计将持续维持震荡偏 弱的运行格局。 在支撑位方面，首先值得关注的是30日均线所处的 ...