Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. Given the high basis of Shanghai silver, there is a risk of significant price fluctuations in silver. Key events such as the US January non - farm payrolls, the announcement of the new Fed chairperson, and the possible announcement of US critical mineral tariffs at the end of the month should be monitored [3]. - In the long term, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties will persist due to intensified great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is likely to continue, so the long - term price center of gold is likely to move upward. Long - term investors are advised to mainly allocate by buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On December 31, 2025, London gold spot was at $4329.08/ounce, London silver spot at $71.93/ounce, COMEX gold at $4340.70/ounce, and COMEX silver at $71.54/ounce. Compared with December 30, 2025, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.8% - 0.9% and silver down about 3.8% [3]. - **Price Differences**: On December 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - $0.79/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - $23/kg. The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed, with some showing significant percentage changes [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: As of January 2, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 1065.13 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with December 31, 2025. The silver ETF - SLV position remained unchanged at 16444.13962 tons [3]. - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also changed. For example, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 3.29% from December 31, 2025, to January 2, 2026 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 97704.00 kg, unchanged from December 30, 2025, and the SHFE silver inventory was 691638.00 kg, a decrease of 8.48% [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: As of January 2, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36402970 troy ounces, an increase of 0.41% compared with December 31, 2025, and the COMEX silver inventory was 449773368 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - **Exchange Rates**: On December 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.03, with a decrease of 0.09% compared with December 30, 2025 [3]. - **Interest Rates and Stock Indexes**: On January 2, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.19% compared with December 31, 2025. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.24%. The VIX index decreased by 2.94%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.19%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.14% [3]. 3.5 Market Review and Influencing Factors - **Market Review**: On December 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.65% to 977.56 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.27% to 1707 yuan/kg. During the New Year's Day holiday, as of January 2, London spot gold rose about 0.08% and London spot silver rose about 1.25% compared with the 15:00 closing on December 31 [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Geopolitical tensions in Iran, Venezuela, etc., during the New Year's Day holiday boosted the demand for safe - haven assets, supporting precious metal prices. However, the relatively strong US dollar index and US Treasury yields limited the upward space of precious metal prices. The silver spot market remained tight, and the price differences showed certain trends [3].

贵金属周报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 海外监管加码，贵金属剧烈波动 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 元旦假期前三个交易日，贵金属价格出现大幅回调，主要 是由于国内外交易所持续加码监管所致，特别是CME在12 月29日上调金属保证金后，在30再次宣布上调黄金、白银、 铂金及钯金合约的保证金后，COMEX白银期货从82美元/盎 司以上的历史新高大幅回落，其他贵金属也纷纷出现回 调。在国内元旦假期间，外盘金银价格维持高位震荡，铂、 钯价格出现一定的反弹。 ⚫ 美联储12月例会纪要凸显观点分化。纪要显示，多数官员 认为，若未来通胀如期回落，则进一步降息是合适的，但 在降息时点及幅度上，部分官员支持暂停降息。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold's price has corrected on the chart. In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical situations in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to volatility changes and for long - position investors to buy at low prices [1] - For silver, there may be a correction risk due to potential passive selling from the global commodity index rebalancing in the short term. In a high - volatility market, it is advisable to keep a light long - position and use options to lock in profits [1] - The trends of platinum and palladium may gradually stabilize. With the strong performance of the outer - market, the price center of platinum is gradually rising, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. Palladium's fundamentals are relatively weaker and it tends to follow the market. The platinum - palladium ratio is expected to rise further, and investors can choose the right time for hedging arbitrage [1] Group 3: Market Data Summaries Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 977.56 yuan/gram on December 31, down 0.74% from the previous day [1] - AG2602 contract closed at 17,074 yuan/kilogram on December 31, down 5.88% from the previous day [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 527.25 yuan/gram on December 31, down 10.61% from the previous day [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 425.20 yuan/gram on December 31, down 4.97% from the previous day [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4341.90 on January 2, up 0.23% from December 31 [1] - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 72.27 on January 2, up 1.81% from December 31 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2161.80 dollars/ounce on January 2, up 4.43% from December 31 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1695.50 on January 2, up 2.08% from December 31 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4332.51 on the current day, up 0.33% from the previous day [1] - London silver was at 72.82 on the current day, up 1.74% from the previous day [1] - Spot platinum was at 2132.00 dollars/ounce on the current day, down 4.22% from the previous day [1] - Spot palladium was at 1641.00 on the current day, down 1.14% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 974.39 yuan/gram on the current day, down 0.80% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17,059 yuan/kilogram on the current day, down 5.85% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 512 yuan/gram on the current day, down 9.49% from the previous day [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 3.17, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 15, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 0.39, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 77.40% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.56, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 97.00% [1] Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 60.08, down 1.56% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver ratio was 57.25, up 5.46% from the previous day [1] - NYMEX platinum/silver ratio was 1.28, up 2.31% from the previous day [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 5.94% from the previous day [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.2% from the previous day [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged from the previous day [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.94%, up 0.5% from the previous day [1] - US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.21% from the previous day [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9699, down 0.15% from the previous day [1] Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,704, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 691,638 kilograms, down 8.48% from the previous day [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36,402,970, up 0.41% from the previous day [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 449,773,368, up 0.08% from the previous day [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,361,515, unchanged from the previous day [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,264,198, down 0.70% from the previous day [1] - SPRD gold ETF position was 1065, down 0.51% from the previous day [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 16,444, unchanged from the previous day [1]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver rising nearly 150% and gold surpassing $4,300 per ounce, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979 and indicating a systemic loss of confidence in the global monetary system centered around the US dollar [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) fell over 9% in 2025, with a 10.6% drop in the first half of the year, representing the worst performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Credibility - The decline in the dollar's purchasing power is driven by a collapse in the credibility of the Federal Reserve's policies, with three interest rate cuts since September 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75% [3] - There are concerns about the politicization of monetary policy under the Trump administration, which could lead to a repeat of the 1970s "Great Inflation" scenario, where a lack of discipline in monetary policy resulted in a collapse of dollar credibility and a 2,300% increase in gold prices over a decade [3] Group 3: De-dollarization Trends - Central banks globally are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with emerging economies like China, India, Turkey, and Russia leading the charge, indicating a strategic shift away from the dollar [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine conflict, have heightened awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on dollar assets, prompting a reassessment of the dollar's safety [4] Group 4: Gold and Silver as Strategic Assets - Gold's status as a non-sanctionable and non-freezable ultimate settlement asset has been elevated, while the internationalization of the renminbi is creating a parallel payment system, enhancing gold's role as a neutral medium of exchange [5] - Silver's price surge reflects both its financial attributes and a surge in industrial demand, particularly driven by its role in the electrification and green transition [7][8] Group 5: Structural Changes in Precious Metal Demand - The buying structure for precious metals has fundamentally shifted, with central bank purchases, private accumulation, and industrial demand providing stronger support compared to the past decade dominated by ETFs and futures [9] - The disconnect between "paper gold" and "physical gold" indicates a growing preference for tangible assets over financial derivatives, reflecting a loss of confidence in dollar-denominated financial assets [9] Group 6: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Current market conditions are often compared to the 1979-1980 gold bull market, but a more accurate reference may be the 1971-1974 period following the Nixon shock, where gold prices rose nearly 400% amid a vacuum in monetary order [10] - The ongoing rise in precious metals is not merely speculative but represents a collective vote of global capital against the dollar-centric monetary logic, signaling an irreversible loss of confidence in the existing unipolar currency system [10][11]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-2.85%，伦敦银回升2.82%。金银比从前周的64回落至58.37，10年期TIPS回升至1.94%，10年期名义利率回落至4.19% （2年期3.47%），美元指数录得98.45。 ◆ 假期前贵金属板块剧烈调整，年末和元旦前止盈盘大量离场，铂钯作为贵金属板块风险偏好的风向标，连续跌停也带崩白银表现。整体上我 们认为：1、现在盘面明显感觉到资金从贵金属撤退，做高切低。2、白银抢跑结束，后续继续上涨需要等待现实紧缺兑现，主要靠伦敦和中 国市场。3、白银会先降波，高位搭建震荡平台，等待后续20%的涨幅。 ◆ 然而理性来看，白银在26年的逻辑我们认为依旧未变。白银更大上涨风险在2 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：975-1050元/克、16500-19500元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-2.85%，伦敦银回升2.82%。金银比从前周的64回落至58.37，10年期TIPS回升至1.94%，10年期名义利率回落至4.19% （2年期3.47%），美元指数录得98.45。 ◆ 假期前贵金属板块剧烈调整，年末和元旦前止盈盘大量离场，铂钯作为贵金属板块风险偏好的风向标，连续跌停也带崩白银表现。整体上我 们认为：1、现在盘面明显感觉到资金从贵金属撤退，做高切低。2、白银抢跑结束，后续继续上涨需要等 ...

2025 年，在金融市场"贵金属"无疑是这场盛宴中最耀眼的明星。社交平台上，有位网友投资者靠投资黄金狂赚近 70 万元！ 地缘政治的紧张局势也为贵金属市场的火爆添了一把火。中东和俄乌地区的地缘政治冲突持续不断，这些地区的不稳定因素如同高悬在全球经济头顶的达 摩克利斯之剑，让投资者们忧心忡忡。在这种充满不确定性的环境下，投资者们纷纷寻求避险资产，以保护自己的财富。而黄金，作为传统的避险资产， 自然成为了投资者们的首选。当冲突爆发时，市场的避险情绪急剧升温，对黄金的需求也随之大幅增加。就像在暴风雨中，人们纷纷寻找避风港，黄金就 如同那坚固的港湾，吸引着投资者们的资金涌入，从而推动了黄金价格的上涨 。 全球央行的购金热潮也是推动贵金属价格上涨的重要力量。近年来，各国央行纷纷增加黄金储备，这一趋势在 2025 年尤为明显。据世界黄金协会发布的 2025 年三季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，尽管金价处于创纪录高位，三季度全球央行依然加快了购金步伐，净购金量总计 220 吨，较二季度增长 28%，较上年同比增长 10%；前三季度全球央行净购金总量达 634 吨，虽低于过去三年的异常高位数值，但仍显著高于 2022 年之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, in 2025, marking it as a historic year for these investments, with gold and silver experiencing their largest annual increases since 1979 [2][3]. Precious Metals Performance - On January 2, 2025, precious metals saw a strong start, with gold prices reaching nearly $4,400 per ounce, closing at $4,332.505, a 0.33% increase. Silver also rose significantly, with a peak increase of 4.17%, closing at $72.824, a 1.74% rise [2][3]. - In 2025, gold prices increased by over 64%, while silver prices surged by over 147%. Platinum and palladium also saw substantial gains, with increases of over 126% and approximately 76%, respectively [3][16]. Investment Sentiment - Investors have shown strong interest in gold and silver as safer investment options compared to the stock market, with many reporting significant profits from their investments in these metals [3][16]. - A notable investor reported earnings of nearly $700,000 from gold investments, indicating a robust sentiment towards precious metals [3][16]. Market Analysis - According to industry experts, gold has maintained its status as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures [8][21]. - Silver's performance is more influenced by industrial demand and global economic recovery, leading to greater price volatility compared to gold [21][22]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, experts predict that gold prices may rise to around $5,000 per ounce, with potential for further increases if geopolitical risks escalate or if the Federal Reserve accelerates interest rate cuts [23][24]. - Silver's long-term outlook remains positive due to demand from the technology and green industries, but it is also subject to significant price fluctuations based on economic conditions [24][25].

在安徽地区，黄金和铂金的价格也有所不同，合肥金至尊金店的黄金价格为1361元/克，铂金价格为871元/克，芜湖菜百首饰金店的黄金价格较低，为1342 元/克，铂金价格为705元/克，蚌埠的中国黄金店面同样提供了基础与零售两种价格，分别为977元/克和993元/克。 贵金属市场最新价格及纯度信息 黄金回收：972元/克，99.90%纯度 2026年1月1日，黄金价格突然下跌，让不少投资者措手不及，国际金价跌到了每盎司4361美元，国内金店也纷纷调价，周大福的项链现在每克1363元，周生 生稍微便宜点，每克1355元，老凤祥也降到每克1363元，一些小城市的金店更实惠，铜陵的菜百首饰和中国黄金，每克只要1342元。 福州的中国黄金店面黄金的基础价格为977元/克，零售价稍高，达到993元/克，厦门周大生金店的黄金价格较高，为1363元/克，铂金价格是849元/克。 泉州水贝黄金的黄金价格为1122元/克，铂金价格相对较低，为545元/克，莆田潮宏基金店的黄金和铂金价格与厦门周大生相近，分别为1363元/克和849元/ 克，漳州周六福金店的黄金价格略低于莆田，为1348元/克，铂金价格为819元/克。 中信期货的小 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.12 million ounces as of November 2025, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [1] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, with expectations of two more cuts in 2026, which may support gold prices [1] - Experts predict that gold prices may stabilize at around $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with potential to rise to $6,000 if geopolitical tensions worsen or if the Fed accelerates rate cuts [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The global silver market is expected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in 2025, continuing a five-year trend of supply shortages [2] - Silver prices have shown high volatility, recently reaching a record high of $83 per ounce before retreating below $80, reflecting a more elastic price response compared to gold [2] - The demand for silver is bolstered by its industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where annual consumption exceeds 200 million ounces [2] Group 3: Deposit Rate Trends - Deposit rates for fixed-term savings have entered a "1" digit era, with significant declines in high-interest products like large-denomination certificates of deposit [3] - The trend of declining deposit rates is expected to continue due to a loose monetary policy aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reducing financing costs [3] - The likelihood of deposit rates increasing in 2026 is low, with expectations of stability or slight declines instead [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are expected to see demand growth driven by sectors like renewable energy and automotive lightweighting [4] - The storage chip industry is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity in 2026, with a potential "super cycle" driven by AI advancements [4] - Investors are advised to consider ETFs related to chips or semiconductors for diversified exposure to the industry [4] Group 5: Risk Management in Investment - Experts emphasize the importance of risk management in asset allocation for 2026, given the increased geopolitical risks and market volatility [5] - Investment strategies should focus on long-term, stable asset allocation rather than high-leverage, high-volatility opportunities [5] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing high-dividend assets for stable cash flow with investments in technology growth funds during market corrections [6]