Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Context - In 2025, China plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4.0% and an additional government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan[1] - China's fiscal deficit rate is currently below the average level, with developed countries and emerging markets projected at 4.5% and 5.5% respectively for 2025, indicating that China's target is not excessively high[2] - The central government's debt burden rate is approximately 25.3%, which is relatively low compared to major global economies, providing ample room for leveraging[3] Group 2: Government Debt and Financial Assets - By the end of 2025, the total government debt is estimated to reach about 96.0 trillion yuan, approximately 66.5% of GDP, significantly lower than the debt burden rates of the US (124.1%), Japan (245.7%), and the EU (83.2%)[4] - The net financial assets of the Chinese government were recorded at 109.3 trillion yuan in 2022, supporting the capacity for large-scale borrowing[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Financing Costs - The government plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to lower financing costs, allowing for the issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds at a lower cost[5] - In 2024, government interest payments accounted for 4.5% of the general public budget expenditure, and this is projected to rise to about 5.0% in 2025, still lower than the IMF's estimates for developed and emerging markets[5] Group 4: Economic Growth and Structural Transformation - The proactive fiscal policy aims to counter short-term economic challenges while promoting long-term structural transformation, with a target economic growth rate of 5% for 2025[6][7] - The shift in fiscal spending towards consumption is expected to enhance domestic demand, with household deposits reaching 152.2 trillion yuan, indicating significant consumption potential[8] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds in 2025, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement programs, reflecting a focus on boosting consumption[8] Group 5: Debt Management and Investment Space - The ongoing debt management efforts are expected to enhance transparency and reduce risks, while also freeing up investment space for key sectors such as technology and green initiatives[9][10] - The fiscal policy is designed to guide the economy towards an innovation-driven model, with a budget allocation of 1.2 trillion yuan for scientific and technological expenditures in 2025[11]

中国宏观经济报告 2025/3/6 中国宏观经济研究员 阎奕锦 010-66555831 yijin_yan@chiefgroup.com 2025 年财政政策如何发力 昨天的《政府工作报告》指出，2025 年要实施更加积极的财政政策；要统筹安排收入、 债务等各类财政资金，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力。今天财政部公布了《关于 2024 年 中央和地方预算执行情况与 2025 年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，我们将二者结合起来，综 合分析今年政府对财政政策的详细部署情况。 我国预算体系包括一般公共预算、全国政府性基金预算、国有资本经营预算和社会保 险预算，即大家所称的"四本账"。一般公共预算是主体，其收支差额对应财政赤字；政府 性基金预算是一般公共预算的重要补充，按基金项目编制，做到以收定支。国有资本经营 预算占比最低，按照收支平衡的原则编制，不列赤字，并安排资金调入一般公共预算。社 会保险基金预算按照统筹层次和社会保险项目分别编制，做到收支平衡。 2024 年财政收支呈现的特点 ➢ 非税收入支撑一般公共预算收入增速录得正值 2024 年全国一般公共预算收入 219702.12 亿元，为预算的 98.1%，比 ...

文/ 财政部党组书记、部长 蓝佛安 中央经济工作会议明确提出，2 02 5年要实施更加积极的财政政策，持续 用力、更加给力，打好政策"组合拳"。持续用力，就是要做好政策衔接， 既让已出台的政策发挥最大效能，又及时出台新的有力度的政策，根据外 部影响程度动态调整，前后贯通、接续发力。更加给力，就是要用好用足 政策空间，加强超常规逆周期调节，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有 效性，使政策力度更大、效果更好，各方面更有获得感。具体体现在五个 方面：一是提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度。二是安排更 大规模政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑。三是大力优化支出结 构、强化精准投放，更加注重惠民生、促消费、增后劲。四是持续用力防 范化解重点领域风险，促进财政平稳运行、可持续发展。五是进一步增加 对地方转移支付，增强地方财力、兜牢"三保"底线。 一、迎难而上、积极作为，2024年财政工作取得新进展新成效，有力促进完成全年经济社会发展目标任 务 2024年是实现"十四五"规划目标任务的关键一年，外部压力加大、内部困难增多。以习近平同志为核心 的党中央沉着应变、综合施策，特别是三季度打破常规、果断出手，及时推出一揽 ...

Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year[7] - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to 2024[7] Budgetary Performance in 2024 - The national general public budget revenue for 2024 was 21,970.21 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget, with a 1.3% increase from 2023[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.4% to 17,497.20 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue surged by 25.4% to 4,473.01 billion yuan[2] - General public budget expenditure reached 28,461.23 billion yuan, completing 99.7% of the budget, with a growth of 3.6%[3] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue fell by 12.2% to 62,090.40 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Total government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, completing 84.4% of the budget, with a slight increase of 0.2%[4] State-Owned Capital Management - State-owned capital operating budget revenue exceeded expectations at 6,782.88 billion yuan, achieving 114.5% of the budget, with a modest growth of 0.6%[5] - Expenditure in this budget decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan[5] Social Insurance Fund Stability - Social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.70 billion yuan, surpassing the budget by 1.2%, with a growth of 5.2%[6] - Expenditure in this fund was 106,061.28 billion yuan, completing 99.3% of the budget, reflecting a 7% increase[6]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a focus on enhancing resource allocation and precise funding to support economic recovery and growth [1][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Shandong Provincial Finance Department aims to deepen the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy, emphasizing resource coordination and precise funding to provide solid fiscal support for economic recovery [2][3]. - The fiscal policy will prioritize improving people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and enhancing economic resilience, linking these aspects to boost living standards and create new economic growth points [2][6]. Group 2: Investment in People's Livelihoods - Shandong will increase basic livelihood investment, ensuring that the proportion of livelihood expenditure remains stable at around 80% [2][7]. - The province will enhance fiscal regulation effectiveness and provide strong support for consumption, including expanding the scope of policies for trade-in programs for consumer goods [2][7]. Group 3: Economic Resilience and Investment - Shandong will focus on developing new productive forces by supporting education, technology innovation, and green low-carbon initiatives to stimulate internal economic dynamics [3][8]. - The province will also aim to expand effective investment by leveraging government investment to attract social investment and enhance the efficiency of special bonds [3][8]. Group 4: Fiscal Reform Initiatives - The Shandong Provincial Finance Department plans to deepen fiscal and tax reforms, launching a series of signature reform outcomes unique to Shandong [4][9]. - Key reforms will include improving the modern budgeting system, enhancing budget management, and increasing financial support for major strategic tasks and basic livelihoods [4][9].

在2025年3月5日的江苏代表团审议和6日的联组会中，习近平主席强调经济大省要挑大梁并要求加强科 技创新和科技人才培育。江苏代表团审议方面，强调了深化改革与高水平开放、发展新质生产力、落实一体 化协同战略、促进共同富裕。相较去年新增了破除地方保护与市场分割、加强与京津冀和粤港澳等区域协 同、重点解决就业教育医疗等民生问题。 联组会方面，强调了深化教育综合改革、推动科技与人才良性互动、推进数字化战略与学习型社会。相 较2024年新增了建立科学教育评价体系、完善学校管理自主权、提升依法治教水平、推动"双减"政策持续深 化、实施基础学科和交叉学科突破计划、打造校企地联合创新平台、部署国家教育数字化战略、推动智慧教 育发展、构建终身学习体系等内容。 二、 "下力气做大做强国内大循环" 两会期间，李强总理参加了云南代表团审议、河北代表团审议和经济、农业界委员联组会，强调下力气 做大做强国内大循环。在云南代表团提出打造文旅康养融合的消费升级版、推进"绿电+先进制造业"绿色发 展、建设西南开放枢纽和巩固脱贫攻坚成果；在河北代表团要求深化京津冀产业协同创新、推动传统产业科 技赋能、加强雄安新区建设；在联组会上明确实施积极财政 ...

光刻机作为半导体设备中占比最大的 类 预计将继续保持强劲需求 年 全球 1 、 《 人形机器人，由外到内，智能革命》摘要 ■ 人形机器人由于其与人类形态和行为高度相似，能够在复杂环境中与人类协作，成为具身智能的理 想载体。 ■ 国产替代的趋势也日益明显，成本和供应链优势将逐步显现，未来国内品牌有望在全球市场上占据 更大份额。 ■ 随着任务需求的多样化，灵巧手和柔性皮肤等技术将成为机器人"手"的关键组成部分，推动精细化 和安全性的末端交互。 ■ 随着国产机器人硬件的不断升级和量产化，生产成本的快速降低使得国产品牌在市场竞争中逐渐具 备优势，预计会加速国产替代的趋势。 ■ 当前，机器人视觉技术由美国和日本厂商主导，然而，由于中国厂商能够在成本上具有明显优势， 预计未来中国厂商将在该领域崭露头角。 2、 《光刻机 自主可控大势所趋》摘要 ■ 光刻机的技术不断进步，尤其是在 EUV（极紫外）光刻技术 方面，随着芯片制程的不断缩小， EUV光刻机的需求和应用逐步增加。 ■ 根据瑞利准则，光刻机的分辨率越高，其能够清晰投影的最小图像尺寸就越小，从而支持更先进的 制程节点。 ■ 光刻机是一个高度精密的系统，主要由光源、光路 ...

今年的政府工作报告提出，实施更加积极的财政政策。统筹安排收入、债券等各类财政资 金，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力。今年赤字率拟按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个百分 点，赤字规模5.66万亿元、比上年增加1.6万亿元。 具体如何发力，财政预算报告给出了更详细的答案。根据界面新闻的梳理，积极的财政政策 主要体现在四个方面：广义财政显著扩张、非税收入大幅下降、支出结构优化以及中央支出 显著提升。 财政部在预算报告中称，综合判断，国内外环境变化带来的影响将持续向财政传导，2025年 财政收支矛盾仍然突出，必须把困难挑战考虑得更充分一些，把政策举措准备得更周全一 些，为促进经济持续健康发展提供坚实保障。 广义财政显著扩张 根据预算报告，2025年拟安排财政预算赤字率4%左右，比上年提高1个百分点，赤字规模 5.66万亿元、比上年增加1.6万亿元。这里的赤字率是指狭义赤字率，即政府预算内的收支差 额和名义国内生产总值（GDP）之比。 此外，今年新增地方政府专项债规模为4.4万亿元，较上年增加5000亿元；发行1.3万亿元超 长期特别国债，较上年增加3000亿元；发行5000亿元特别国债，补充国有大行核心一级资 本。新增地 ...

金融数据前瞻来看，投放节奏因素叠加基数因素，我们预计2月人民币贷款增量在1万亿元以上、 社融增速小幅改善至8 . 2%左右。2月货币当局延续对流动性的精准投放，加之财政发力弥补了信贷 增长的趋缓，当月资金环境维持趋紧态势。展望后续而言，两会货币政策取向稳健，财政端定调积 极，下阶段央行流动性的指引方向、政府债的发力程度、信贷需求趋稳与供给端季末冲量间的博 弈，或为资金市场和信用市场的核心决定因素。3月初流动性环比有所改善，但仍需关注月末时点 的跨季情况。 ▍ 利率跟踪：2月资金利率延续偏紧，债券利率触底回升。 1）政策利率按兵不动。 2 0 2 5年2月，OMO与MLF利率未有调整。但两会货币当局"适度宽松"定 调不改，延续支持性的货币政策，年内总量或结构性降准降息可期，但节奏或取决于经济运行态 势、财政发力节奏、汇率与债市走势及银行负债端利率的配合情况。 2）资金利率总体中性，边际趋向均衡 。2月DR0 0 7平均利率2 . 0 3%，较上月上行1 0 b p s，同业存 单利率较MLF利率差距收窄2 0 b p s，短端流动性延续偏紧，下阶段虽外部环境仍有约束，但在置 换债资金回流与信贷投放趋稳下，流动性 ...

Development Stages of Special Bonds - Special bonds have undergone four main stages since their inception in 2015: exploration (2015-2018), innovation and expansion (2019-2021), transformation and regulation (2022-2024), and optimization and improvement (from late 2024) [3][4][6][18]. - In the innovation and expansion phase (2019-2021), the issuance of special bonds rapidly increased, with new quotas rising from CNY 1.35 trillion in 2018 to CNY 3.75 trillion in 2020 [25][26]. Current Characteristics and Usage - As of 2024, 40.5% of special bonds were allocated for new project construction, while 40.4% were used for debt replacement, and 19.2% for repaying maturing bonds [7]. - The proportion of special bonds used as project capital has been increasing, reaching 9.8% in 2024, with a policy cap of 30% [7]. Challenges and Issues - Special bonds have faced issues such as unclear positioning, with projects lacking revenue being funded by general debt, while high-revenue projects are left to market mechanisms [9]. - The allocation of special bond quotas often reflects the distribution of hidden debts rather than efficiency, which undermines the intended positive incentives [9]. Recommendations for Improvement - It is recommended to clarify the positioning of special bonds to ensure they are used for projects that can cover their own costs, thus preventing pressure on general public budgets [13]. - The distribution of quotas should prioritize high-quality projects in regions with population inflows and strong industrial bases, while using general debt for areas with declining populations [13].