1月的金价暴跌并非单一因素造成，而是多重因素的共同作用。投资者的情绪变动和政策预期的变化，以及高盛报告中提到的期权市场的投机行为，都加剧 了金价的剧烈波动。黄金市场的暴涨背后隐含着投机泡沫，而市场情绪一旦逆转，便会迅速带来价格的下跌。 尽管短期内金价出现了大幅回调，但分析师普遍认为，这一波暴跌并不意味着黄金牛市的终结。瑞银等机构仍对黄金保持乐观预期，认为美联储降息和全球 经济压力可能推动金价在2026年继续上涨。地缘政治风险、美国债务增加等因素依然可能推动黄金需求，给金价提供支撑。 不过，市场的变化也给黄金投资带来了不小的风险。黄金的价格不仅受到基本面影响，还容易受到市场情绪和政策预期的波动。若央行暂停购买黄金，或者 美元因鹰派政策走强，金价可能面临更大的回调。2026年，黄金价格可能会面临进一步的下行压力，分析师的年末预测价位在4000美元至5000美元之间，最 极端情况下甚至可能跌至3500美元。 2026年1月，黄金和其他贵金属市场经历了剧烈波动。黄金价格一度从历史新高5596美元/盎司暴跌至4686美元/盎司，跌幅接近10%。尽管整体上涨超过 12%，但价格的快速下跌仍然让市场措手不及。 白银的波动尤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp decline in precious metals suppresses the atmosphere of non - ferrous metals, and short - term panic still has a suppressing effect. However, in the long run, the outlook is not pessimistic. Copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize, aluminum prices may stabilize under certain conditions, and different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][5][6]. - The market may return to real - world trading. Tin prices may face a significant correction risk in the short term, nickel prices have a large risk of decline, and lithium prices face pressure but may have short - term support at the bottom [15][17][19]. - The stainless steel price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position layout can be considered at around 14,000 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME copper 3M closed down 4.63% to $13,070/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 to 174,975 tons, and the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly inventory increased by 0.7 to 233,000 tons [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines remains tight, the supply of refined copper in China maintains high growth, and the downstream consumption willingness recovers after the copper price drops. The expected surplus is alleviated, and copper prices are expected to gradually stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - $13,500/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 3.03% to $3,135/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,600 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 63,000 to 742,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,000 to 145,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic inventories are accumulating, but it does not constitute a major negative for prices. LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and domestic inventories perform better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,180/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy dropped sharply. The main AD2603 contract closed down 4.32% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, and the trading volume was 45,500 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,200 tons [8]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the demand is relatively average, in the context of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the price has short - term support [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 1.69% to 16,918 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $42 to $2,004/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the smelting profit is supported by high - priced silver, the TC is at a low level, the primary lead production rate remains relatively high, and the primary lead ingot inventory is accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste has increased, the recycled smelting profit has slightly declined, but the recycled lead production rate has increased marginally. The downstream battery enterprise production rate has slightly declined. The industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.46% to 25,860 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $62.5 to $3,399/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 25,790 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,800 tons [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the industrial sector, the zinc ore raw material inventory has increased, the decline rate of zinc ore has slowed down. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME zinc 3 - 15 month spread has increased. The overseas natural gas price has increased, causing concerns about the cost of European smelting enterprises. The zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2 on the sector sentiment [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 30, the tin price冲高回落, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 409,000 yuan/ton, down 8.32% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 30 to 8,524 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 7,095 tons [14]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: In the context of the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is expected that the tin price may have a large correction risk in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - $51,000/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 30, the nickel price dropped significantly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5.07% from the previous day. The spot market premiums remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The nickel price has a large risk of decline in the short term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the significant increase in domestic nickel inventory put pressure on the nickel price. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range for Shanghai nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 155,107 yuan, down 5.71% from the previous working day and 11.28% for the week. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan, down 10.08% from the previous day's closing price and 18.36% for the week [18][19]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the stop - profit orders increased significantly, causing the lithium price to decline rapidly. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 15.9% for the week. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the sustainability of supply - side contraction is uncertain, and there is significant pressure on the upside of the lithium price. In the context of low downstream inventories, there may be short - term support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 136,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 30, 2026, the alumina index fell 1.64% to 2,768 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading total position decreased by 32,900 to 613,500 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 213 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 79 yuan/ton. The Friday futures warehouse receipts were 171,100 tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous day [21]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday at 15:00, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton, up 0.83% (+120). The unilateral position was 293,500 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons. The social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons, a 2.91% increase month - on - month, and the 300 - series inventory was 616,700 tons, a 2.86% increase month - on - month [24]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Last week, the market volatility increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market sentiment was affected. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover speed slowed down. The supply side has significantly contracted. The core upward logic has not changed, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to lightly lay out long positions at around 14,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,700 yuan/ton [25].

报告要点： 上周五，凯文沃什被特朗普宣布提名为新任美联储主席。在新任联储主席候选人（包括哈 塞特、沃勒、里德尔）中，沃什的货币政策表态偏鹰派，且反对美联储无序扩张资产负债表透 支信用。消息公布后，市场对于美元信用受挫和联储后续大幅降息的预期有所缓和，金银价格 出现大幅下跌。 专题报告 2026-02-02 蒋文斌 宏观金融组 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 贵金属：沃什被提名为联储主席，金银价格受挫 贵金属研究 一、凯文沃什被提名为联储主席令金银价格重挫 特朗普宣布"温和鹰派"凯文沃什为新任美联储主席提名人选，宽松货币政策预期受到 重挫，是金银价格在周五出现大幅下跌的主要原因：特朗普于周五宣布正式提名前美联储理事 凯文沃什为新任联储主席。在沃什前一联储理事任期中，他主张减少货币政策对于市场的干预， 呈现温和偏鹰派的表态。在利率和资产负债表操作方面，沃什反对进行长期的量化宽松和零利 率政策，并批评美联储的资产负债表扩张大幅透支央行信用。在联储政策目标方面，他强调要 坚守 2%的通胀目标。而在联储的职能权限方面，他批评美联储" ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，贵金属剧 烈波动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-02 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称希望与伊朗"能够达成协议" 特朗普对于伊朗的态度暗昧不清，市场地缘风险短期回落，市 场风险偏好走低。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 1 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期 PMI 虽不及预期，但潜在利空因素仍然较多，后续市场震荡转 弱的概率较高。 综 宏观策略（黄金） 合 唐纳德•特朗普提名凯文•沃什出任美联储主席 晨 报 周五贵金属剧烈波动，黄金大跌白银暴跌，特朗普提名凯文沃 什为下任美联储主席，由于其鹰派的历史，市场预期后续货币 政策将采取降息+缩表的模式，短期流动性释放预期下降。 农产品（棉花） 截至 1 月 22 日当周，25/26 年度美棉周度签约量环比同比大降 至 4.62 万吨，但装运有所提速。25/26 美棉出口签约进度仍落后， 后续出口情况仍需持续跟踪。 能源化工（原油） 欧佩克+原则上同意三月份继续暂停原定增产计划 油价略偏强，中东地缘冲突风险支撑油价。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 2025 年完成港口货物吞吐量 183.4 亿吨 ...

一方面，短期推升通胀的因素难以避免。数据显示，2026年1月1日至12日当周，俄CPI累计上升 1.26%，截至1月12日年度通胀率为6.27%，较上月出现反弹。市场分析认为，超过一半的涨幅受消费篮 子中波动较大且受调控的商品与服务推动，包括水果、蔬菜、酒类、汽车、住房与公用事业费用、交通 运输、燃油以及旅游服务等。 另一方面，俄央行还将面对更深层次的通胀压力。有专家指出，2025年下半年出现的价格增速放缓趋势 可能难以持续。增值税上调、小企业税制改革以及预期的关税上涨，均可能成为推动通胀走强的重要因 素。市场预计，增值税调整将在今年上半年进一步推高物价，但到下半年，高通胀问题有望缓解，货币 政策可能相应放宽。 在此背景下，有专家提示需警惕潜在的滞胀风险。俄罗斯科学院经济研究所首席研究员伊戈尔·尼古拉 耶夫表示，2026年，俄主要经济威胁来自滞胀风险，而应对滞胀十分困难。刺激经济增长的措施通常会 推高通胀，而抑制通胀的政策又可能拖累经济复苏。他指出，目前通胀"虽尚未构成危机，但很可能演 变为危机"。 因此，俄罗斯工业家和企业家联盟主席亚历山大·绍欣呼吁，应扭转经济持续降温的局面，推动经济走 向可持续增长。绍欣 ...

特朗普宣布提名新任美联储主席的几小时后，全球贵金属市场经历了前所未有的震荡，黄金价格如瀑布般倾泻而下。 凌晨的贵金属市场一片恐慌，现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌破每盎司4700美元，遭遇40年来的最大单日跌幅。更令人震惊的是，现货白银价格一 度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅。 全球市场在短短48小时内蒸发了超过15万亿美元，显示极端避险情绪与高波动性。 这场历史性的暴跌直接导火索是美联储新主席的提名。美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一消息迅速引发市场地震。 01 暴跌现场 贵金属市场迎来了被称为"黑色星期五"的交易日。北京时间1月31日凌晨，现货黄金价格上演惊魂一幕，盘中一度下跌超过12%，创下1983年以来的最大单 日跌幅。 黄金盘中最低触及4682美元/盎司，最终收跌9.25%。 白银市场则更加惨烈，现货白银日内最大跌幅达到惊人的35.89%，收盘重挫26.42%至85.259美元/盎司。这一单日跌幅创下白银市场历史纪录，远超黄金的 波动幅度。 这场历史性暴跌的直接导火索来自美国政治层面。1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 现年 ...

文章编辑时间2026.2.1晚间20：50，所有观点不构成任何投资建议！仅供学习交流。 自律藏着人生的无限可能，其深度亦丈量着人生的高度，每一步深耕都自有回响，越自律者越行越远。 我是浮竹，深耕主流币走势研判，凭专业积淀拆解盘面逻辑，输出务实交易思路。 市场概述 特朗普提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席，市场将其视为鹰派选择，引发加密货币等风险资产抛售。沃什虽 近年有从鹰派向鸽派转变的趋势，但市场仍担忧他会维持相对鹰派的货币政策，资金成本上升，借钱炒 币者压力倍增。 地缘政治紧张局势加剧，美伊局势升级，市场避险情绪升温，但资金却未流向传统避险资产，而是因流 动性收紧担忧被抛售 技术面 BTC在目前78000美元附近盘整。在凌晨快速向下插针最低触及75500美元，跌破了上篇文章说的点位， 随后反抽走结构性行情，目前已经跌到周线级支撑位附近，短线看76000美元关口的支撑情况，若跌则 下看70000美元，上方支撑看82000-85000美元。ETH跌的更狠最低插针2200美元附近，要是跌破2000美 元，则下看到1800-1500美元。 操作上目前做现货比较保稳，现货可以分批进，恐慌指数如果破10则加仓。 这个周末可算过 ...

Group 1 - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index also dropped to 49.8%, showing a general downturn in economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, as many industries enter a traditional off-peak period in January [2] - The PMI index is affected by a high base effect from December 2025, which saw a significant increase, thus impacting January's figures [2] - Weak internal investment and consumption demand, along with high external uncertainties, are major factors dragging down the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3 - The raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, while the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [3] - The difference between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index indicates a transfer of profits upstream [3] - Recent structural policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises and technology firms are expected to take time to positively impact the manufacturing sector [3] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index's decline is influenced by the downturn in industries such as construction, with the index falling to 49.4% [4] - The real estate sector's business activity index dropped below 40.0%, indicating a weak overall sentiment in that industry [4] - Financial services and capital market services showed higher activity levels, with indices above 65.0%, reflecting a more active market [4] Group 5 - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is declining due to seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and insufficient effective demand from the real estate market [5] - The manufacturing production index is expected to decline significantly in February due to the extended Spring Festival holiday [5] - Future manufacturing sentiment will be influenced by export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [5]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent economic indicators and policy decisions that may impact investment strategies, particularly in the context of industrial profits and monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 1: Important Events Review - On January 27, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous year. In December, profits of these enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year [2]. - On January 28, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement removed references to increasing employment risks, indicating improvements in economic conditions, particularly with signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, suggesting a more cautious approach from Fed decision-makers [2]. - On January 29, U.S. President Trump stated that he had engaged in discussions with Iran amid escalating tensions and planned to continue dialogue while threatening military action to urge Iran to accept the terms of an agreement [2]. - On January 30, President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for quicker interest rate cuts while also supporting a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, positioning him as relatively hawkish compared to other candidates [2]. Group 2: Market Overview - The bond market continued its recovery, while the equity market showed weak fluctuations. The sentiment in the bond market improved, with long-term bond yields declining again at the beginning of the week. Many local governments set GDP targets that were either in line with or slightly lower than the national growth rate of 5% from the previous year, indicating a shift away from aggressive growth targets [4].

Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a dramatic drop, with prices plunging nearly $500 from a peak of $5,596 to around $5,100 before rebounding above $5,300, indicating extreme volatility and investor anxiety [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was expected, but Chairman Powell's comments sparked a significant market reaction, with gold prices surpassing $5,500 and silver reaching $119, reflecting a disconnect between market sentiment and Fed communication [3][4] - Geopolitical risks have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, contributing to a 25% increase in gold prices and over 55% for silver in the past year, indicating a shift beyond typical commodity bull markets [6] Investment Sentiment - Investors are increasingly focused on potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership by May 2026, with expectations that a more dovish successor could drive further investment in precious metals [4] - Current market conditions suggest that gold is becoming a key asset in portfolios, potentially replacing traditional bonds as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with projections indicating that a rise in gold allocation could push prices to $8,000-$8,500 [7] Price Predictions - Major financial institutions like UBS have raised their gold price targets for 2026 to $6,200, with bullish scenarios suggesting prices could reach $7,200, further fueling market optimism [9] - However, analysts warn of market instability, citing extreme price fluctuations and the potential for a significant correction due to overcrowded positions among momentum traders [9][11] Technical Observations - The recent flash crash highlighted the market's fragility, as trading platforms experienced outages due to overwhelming order volumes during price swings, underscoring the concentrated nature of market participation [11] - The copper market shows contrasting dynamics, with strong demand driven by energy transition and electric vehicle adoption, yet high inventories challenge the bullish narrative [12] - In the aluminum market, supply constraints from China's production limits and shifting demand towards green technologies suggest a positive medium-term outlook, although short-term price sustainability remains debated [13] Overall Market Sentiment - The current market environment is characterized by significant divergence, with bullish forecasts from major banks juxtaposed against warnings of excessive positioning and volatility risks [13] - The Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain policy credibility have not fully reassured the market, and any new geopolitical developments could trigger rapid price movements [13]