周二(7月8日)亚市盘中，国际白银短线小幅下行，目前交投于36.66美元/盎司，跌幅0.20%，今日银价开 盘报36.69美元/盎司，最高上探36.76美元/盎司，最低触及36.49美元/盎司。 BMO私人财富首席市场策略师Carol Schleif在明尼阿波利斯表示："市场就像在屏住呼吸等待更多关税 消息。"她表示："市场仍然维持得不错，距离历史高点仅一步之遥，这说明投资者愿意对新闻头条保持 观望态度。" 同时，投资者在等待第二季度财报季于7月中旬启动之际，也因上周美国政府支出计划获得通过而感到 宽慰，其中包括一些对企业友好的税收政策。 【白银走势分析】 短线来看，国际白银小幅下跌，目前交投于36.66美元/盎司，跌幅0.20%，最高上探36.76美元/盎司，最 低触及36.49美元/盎司。今日白银上方阻力位为37.30-37.40，下方支撑位为35.90-36.00. 华尔街股市在周一大幅下跌，原因是特朗普警告称，从8月开始将对包括日本和韩国等关键贸易伙伴以 及一些规模较小的国家的商品加征新一轮全面关税。 周二美股走势不如前一日激烈，但标普500指数和以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数在涨跌之间不断震荡， 投资者 ...

农产品早报 2025-07-09 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆延续下跌，天气较好及贸易战可能波及出口施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，生物柴油政策支撑 需求，整体维持区间震荡趋势。周二国内豆粕现货下跌，华东报 2790 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高，豆粕 成交较弱，提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 233.22 万吨，本周预计压榨 235.17 万吨。 饲料企业库存天数为 7.91（+0.61）天，油厂豆粕库存超 80 万吨，维持累库趋势。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水，对冲美豆跌幅。总体来看，大豆进 ...

【环球时报特约记者 任重 环球时报记者 杨舒宇 倪浩】7月9日美国"对等关税"政策暂缓期到期在即，美国总统特朗普再度突然调整该政策方向。 当地时间7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。消息一出，美股市场周一低开低收，三大 指数均录得6月中旬以来最差单日表现。 关税生效期再延 "关税威胁造成的不确定性似乎正在减缓投资和招聘"。《纽约时报》称，自特朗普去年11月宣布当选以来，美国工厂建设支出有所下降，从业人 员数量也大幅下降。贸易专家告诉哥伦比亚广播公司，"关税威胁以及这种不确定性使得资金处于观望状态。如果你连一周后的成本都无法预估， 又怎能规划未来的一年呢？这些都造成了不确定性，阻碍投资和经济整体增长。" 同时，越来越多的外资倾向于"逃逸"出美国。7日，德勤的一项新调查显示，只有2%的英国大型企业首席财务官仍然认为美国具有投资吸引力， 较2024年底特朗普上任前的59%大幅下降。官方数据也显示，美国第二季度外商直接投资大降5.2%。 还有越来越多的证据表明，美国通胀压力恐进一步加剧。高盛集团的一份报告预计，企业将把60%的关税成本转嫁给消费者。经济信心也开始下 ...

法国总统马克龙：贸易战显然是不遵守WTO的明确决定。 ...

【导读】 特朗普称8月1日关税不会延期，中概股集体大涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注关税以及海外市场的表现。 关税大消息 7月8日晚间，美国总统特朗普表示，他不会将新的8月1日关税支付截止期限再作任何延期，届时各国必须开始支付所谓的"对等关 税"。 特朗普周二在其Truth Social平台上写道："关税将于2025年8月1日开始征收。这一日期没有任何改变，也不会有改变。换句话 说，所有的款项将于2025年8月1日到期并应支付——不会给予任何延期。" 不过，这些单方面向未能达成协议的国家施加关税的通知信函，伴随着一项行政命令，将关税实施日期推迟了三周，实际上给贸易 伙伴延长了谈判时间。特朗普周一晚间在与记者交谈时还表示，他的8月1日截止期"并非百分之百确定"，暗示如果有额外的让 步，他可能会改变主意。 这一保留态度——再加上特朗普表示他仍在协商更多协议——让一些华盛顿和华尔街的人对他是否会真正兑现最新的关税威胁表示 怀疑。 此举只是特朗普贸易议程中的最新一环，该议程多次出现延迟和逆转。特朗普一直利用关税威胁来重塑全球贸易流向，并施压企业 将更多制造业岗位迁回美国，过程也搅动了金融市场。 特朗普最 ...

受美国与贸易伙伴谈判的乐观情绪影响，以及美元走强和美国国债收益率上升的进一步施压，作为避险资产的黄金周二下跌。 截至发稿，现货黄金日内跌幅达1.00%，跌破3300美元/盎司。基准10年期美国国债收益率触及逾两周高点，降低了无息黄金的吸引力；美元指数涨至近两周 高点。 与此同时，市场正等待周三公布的美国联邦储备委员会最新政策会议纪要，多位美联储官员本周将发表讲话，以更深入了解经济和央行的政策路径。 "关税对通胀的持续威胁可能会说服美联储推迟到明年再降息，这将限制黄金价格上涨，"资本经济学（Capital Economics）气候与大宗商品经济学家哈马德· 侯赛因（Hamad Hussain）称。投资者目前预计，美联储将从10月开始降息，到今年年底累计降息50个基点。 Fxstreet分析师指出，3300美元-3295美元区域可能会为黄金的下跌提供缓冲，在该区域下方，金价可能会加速下跌至3270美元水平区域附近的下一个相关支 撑位。这一下行轨迹可能最终会延长至3248-3247美元区间，即6月份的月度低点。 贵金属分析师ChristopherLewis仍认为，考虑到很多地缘政治事件，以及围绕关税战的不确定性，黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Prime Day event from July 8 to 11, 2025, is facing challenges due to the ongoing trade war initiated by former President Trump, which has led to fluctuating tariff policies affecting brand participation and consumer spending [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Spending - Despite resilient economic indicators, short-term consumer behavior, such as preemptive purchases before tariffs take effect, may obscure long-term trends [2]. - A survey indicated that 25% of respondents would skip Prime Day due to tariffs, while 57% would closely monitor price trends [2]. - Amazon's Prime Day is expected to provide insights into consumer spending patterns for the summer [2]. Group 2: Brand Participation and Pricing - Some brands, like Unilever's Blueair, have reduced the number of promotional products due to increased costs from tariffs, with discounts typically around 30% now being reconsidered [3]. - Approximately 60% of products on Amazon come from third-party sellers, some of whom are unable to offer discounts this year due to rising costs [2][3]. - Amazon's CEO stated that tariffs have not significantly raised prices, and the company is working with partners to maintain low prices and a diverse product selection [3]. Group 3: Sales Projections and Market Impact - Adobe predicts that Amazon and other U.S. retailers will achieve $23.8 billion in online sales during the four-day event [1]. - EMarketer estimates that U.S. consumers will spend nearly $13 billion on Amazon during Prime Day, accounting for 75% of all online spending during that period, up from 59% in 2024 [3]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% year-over-year increase in average daily sales during the extended event, despite ongoing macroeconomic pressures [3]. Group 4: Risks of Extended Promotion - Extending the duration of Prime Day may reduce the urgency that typically drives consumer purchases, potentially leading to increased cart abandonment [4].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. President Trump's abrupt halt in trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's proposed "digital services tax" on U.S. tech companies, which Trump labeled as a "blatant attack" [1] - The U.S. decision has thrown U.S.-Canada relations back into turmoil, despite previous agreements made during the G7 meeting to reach a new economic deal within 30 days [1] - As the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" approaches its end, countries like Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating with the U.S. regarding tariff issues [1][3] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for its unilateral imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" since April, which they argue undermines the multilateral trade system and disrupts normal international trade order [3] - The number of countries reaching tariff agreements with the U.S. is significantly lower than expected, with only Vietnam and the UK making progress, while others remain in prolonged negotiations or adopt a wait-and-see approach [3] - Trump's frustration is evident as he publicly expressed concerns about the complexity of negotiations with over 170 countries still without agreements [3] Group 3 - Japan and South Korea are engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations with the U.S., but internal conflicts within Trump's team have complicated the discussions, leaving Japan uncertain about U.S. demands [5] - Despite the challenges, both Japan and South Korea are committed to pursuing trade agreements, with India's Prime Minister Modi also expressing a desire to resolve differences during his visit to the U.S. [5] - There are indications that Trump may visit China in the coming months with a large delegation of U.S. business leaders, aiming to focus on trade cooperation rather than conflict [5] Group 4 - In a recent interview, Trump stated that the U.S. is managing its relationship with China well, despite ongoing accusations against China regarding hacking and intellectual property theft [7] - The complexity of U.S.-China relations is attributed to extreme tendencies within the U.S. diplomatic decision-making, which have led to a misjudgment of the situation and potential crises [7] - The interdependence of U.S. and Chinese enterprises is highlighted as a stabilizing factor, suggesting that the trade war may conclude with the U.S. adopting a more conciliatory approach [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the contradiction in the U.S. approach towards its allies and China, where tariffs are imposed on Asian countries, including Japan and South Korea, while simultaneously seeking dialogue with China [1][3][5] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs of 25% on Japan and South Korea, and additional tariffs ranging from 32% to 40% on other Asian countries, indicating a strategy to curb China's influence in the region [3][11] - U.S. Treasury Secretary's remarks about the importance of U.S.-China relations and the need for face-to-face talks reflect the underlying anxiety within the U.S. regarding its economic dependencies, particularly on rare earth elements [5][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing economic challenges, with a projected GDP decline of 0.5% in Q1 2025 and increasing national debt exceeding $36 trillion, leading to a precarious financial situation [9] - The imposition of tariffs on countries closely tied to China aims to disrupt China's trade relationships in Southeast Asia, which could backfire by strengthening regional ties against U.S. pressure [11][13] - The recent tariff actions against Japan and South Korea may undermine U.S. strategic alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, potentially creating a strategic buffer for China [13][15]

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 2006.200 | | 134.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1394.7 | +53.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 +73.00↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 611.50 | | | 430.90 | +66.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | | 251.84 | -117.70↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 35057 | 536↑ | | | | | SCFIS ...