Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's performance in September, indicating a four-week period of overall fluctuation, similar to the five-week fluctuation observed in May. It suggests that the market is likely to experience a contraction in trading volume before the upcoming holiday [1][3]. Market Outlook Before the Holiday - Historical data from the past ten years shows that only last year saw an increase in margin trading before the holiday, while other years, including 2014, experienced a decrease. Therefore, a contraction in trading volume is expected before the holiday [3][4]. Market Outlook After the Holiday - Following the period of fluctuation, there is potential for upward movement. Historical data indicates that if there is a fluctuation before the holiday, the market often performs well afterward [4]. - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized maintaining ample liquidity and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply, indicating a clear intention to support the capital market [4]. - The article notes that while overseas trading volumes are currently significant, historical trends suggest that sectors that have performed well in the first three quarters often see average performance in the fourth quarter. Therefore, a rotation among technology, finance, and cyclical sectors is anticipated in the upcoming quarter [4].

来源：中国基金报 特朗普在社媒发卡通图片，威胁"解雇"鲍威尔 据美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道，当地时间27日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台发布了一张卡通图 片，画面显示，他正在解雇美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔。 图片来源：特朗普社交媒体账号 据报道，这张图片被认为由AI生成（或数字绘制）。在图片中，特朗普手指鲍威尔，大喊"你被解雇 了！"后者抱着装有个人物品的纸箱站立。两人身后是美联储的徽章图案。 报道提到，特朗普曾多次批评鲍威尔在降息问题上采取谨慎态度，并给其起了 "慢半拍鲍威尔" 的绰 号。 报道还称，尽管美联储9月早些时候已实施2025年首次降息，特朗普仍发出了这一最新 "解雇威胁"。鲍 威尔的主席任期将于2026年5月结束。 目前，白宫尚未立即回应置评请求。 美国媒体报道称，在特朗普本届任期内，因与美联储在降息问题上的分歧，特朗普多次对鲍威尔提出批 评，并威胁要解雇他。美国媒体称，特朗社交媒体账号上的这张漫画表明，他针对美联储主席的公开施 压再次大幅升级，凸显出白宫与美联储之间的紧张关系达到前所未有的程度。 ▲ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [3]. Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are trading around interest rate cuts, with silver showing potential for a short squeeze due to low inventory levels and continued inflows into ETFs [1][33]. - Industrial metals like copper are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine and a reduction in global copper supply, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits demand recovery [1][33]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing active trading ahead of the holiday, with expectations of strong supply growth in the fourth quarter [1][33]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to trade based on interest rate expectations, with silver's strong performance linked to low inventory levels and ETF inflows [1][33]. - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and reducing concerns about interest rate cuts [1][33]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 tons in global copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months [1][33]. - Aluminum supply is increasing as production capacity is restored, but prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [1][33]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stable, with active trading as companies prepare for the holiday season, and supply expectations remain strong for the fourth quarter [1][33]. - The report notes a slight increase in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels decreasing [1][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies to monitor, including 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, 万国黄金集团, 中金黄金, 紫金矿业, 山东黄金, 赤峰黄金, 银泰黄金, 招金矿业, 洛阳钼业, 明泰铝业, and others [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated interest rate cuts in China have not materialized, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remaining stable for four consecutive months, while the Federal Reserve has initiated a new easing cycle with a 25 basis point cut [1][2][5] Group 1: Monetary Policy Context - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, reflecting a cautious approach amid various economic pressures [1][5] - The Fed's recent rate cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25% marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of further cuts in the fourth quarter [1][2] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Domestic economic conditions, including weak inflation and pressures in the real estate market, have led to expectations for a follow-up rate cut in China to stabilize the RMB and stimulate economic recovery [2][5] - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on net interest margins, which have dropped to approximately 1.45%, limiting the scope for further rate reductions [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market Challenges - The stability of the real estate market is under threat, with 69 out of 70 major cities reporting a decline in second-hand housing prices, particularly in first-tier cities [6][9] - The core issues in the real estate market extend beyond financing costs, highlighting structural problems in supply and demand [7][9] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To address the real estate market's challenges, a combination of fiscal policy and structural adjustments is recommended, including optimizing market supply and enhancing demand through employment and income stability [9][11] - The government is encouraged to pause new land auctions and repurchase undeveloped land to alleviate supply pressures, aligning with recent policy directions [9][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for new monetary policy actions, including further rate cuts, is anticipated as the Fed's easing opens up more operational space for the PBOC [9][11] - The overall expectation is that with the gradual release of policy effects and ongoing economic recovery, the real estate market may stabilize over time [11]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market ended a previous streak of weekly gains, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's future policy direction and Chairman Powell's warnings on valuations [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen 2.8% in September, outperforming historical averages, and has a year-to-date increase of 13% [6] - Investor sentiment improved following NVIDIA's announcement of a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, leading to a net inflow of $12.06 billion into U.S. equity funds in the week ending September 24 [7] Group 2: Economic Data - Recent economic data indicates resilience, with initial jobless claims significantly lower than expected, suggesting a stable labor market despite Fed concerns [3] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a slight increase in inflation, with the year-over-year rate rising from 2.6% to 2.7%, marking the highest level since March [3] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.8%, the strongest performance since Q3 2023, indicating a significant rebound from a 0.5% contraction in Q1 [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Fed officials expressed differing views on inflation and labor market conditions, with Powell indicating a need to balance persistent inflation risks against a cooling job market [4][5] - The upcoming employment report is highly anticipated, with expectations of a net increase of 85,000 jobs, which could influence the Fed's decision to maintain current policies [5] Group 4: Sector Performance - The communication services sector experienced the largest decline, down 2.7%, influenced by significant drops in stocks like Meta Platforms and Alphabet [6] - The energy sector led gains with a 4.7% increase, followed by utilities and real estate sectors, while technology and industrial sectors saw slight increases [6]

Group 1: Agricultural Impact - U.S. soybean production reached a historical high in 2025, but prices have plummeted by 40% compared to 2022, leading to significant distress among farmers [1] - The trade war has caused U.S. soybean market share in China to drop from 40% in 2016 to 20% in 2024, with farmers expressing frustration over the government's handling of the situation [2] - The number of farm bankruptcies increased by 55% in 2024, indicating a severe crisis in the agricultural sector [2] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The Trump administration's tariffs were expected to generate over $300 billion in revenue, but actual revenue was only $100 billion by July 2025, highlighting a significant shortfall [3] - Tariffs have led to a drastic reduction in U.S. soybean exports to China, from 22 million tons in 2024 to just 3 million tons, resulting in a complete loss of related tariff revenue [3] - The U.S. economy is facing a potential slowdown, with a 65% probability of recession as consumer prices for everyday goods have risen by 30% due to tariffs [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25% in response to rising unemployment and low job growth, with expectations of further cuts [4] - Despite potential cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points, the structural issues caused by tariffs may negate the positive effects of lower interest rates on consumer spending [4] Group 4: Business Challenges - Companies are facing a dilemma as tariffs increase production costs while incentivizing domestic manufacturing, creating a challenging environment for supply chains [6] - Retailers and importers are struggling with reduced product lines and legal challenges against the government due to the financial strain caused by tariffs [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy has unexpectedly shown strong growth in Q2, with GDP increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.3% [1][4] Economic Growth Factors - The growth is attributed to increased consumer spending and a significant decline in imports, while investment and exports have decreased [4] - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, grew by 2.5% in Q2 [4] - Non-residential fixed investment rose by 7.3%, while residential fixed investment fell by 5.1% [4] - Government consumption and investment decreased by 0.1%, and exports declined by 1.8%, with imports dropping sharply by 29.3% [4] Contribution to Economic Growth - Personal consumption expenditure contributed 1.68 percentage points to the economic growth for the quarter [4] - Net exports contributed 4.83 percentage points, while government consumption and investment had a negligible negative impact of 0.01 percentage points [4] - Private inventory investment negatively impacted growth by 3.44 percentage points [4] Economic Imbalance - The current economic situation reflects a "strong consumption, weak investment" and "warm domestic demand, cold external demand" imbalance, which poses risks for sustained economic recovery [4] Employment Market and Federal Reserve Actions - Despite the strong economic growth, the U.S. job market has shown signs of weakness, with new job creation falling short of expectations [8] - In response, the Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, bringing it to a range of 4.0% to 4.25% [8] - The Fed aims to find a compromise solution amid rising inflation and risks in the job market [10]

与此同时， 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨0.50%报3789.8美元/盎司，本周累计上涨 2.27%；COMEX白银期货涨2.77%报46.365美元/盎司，本周累计上涨7.95%。 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨0.32%报65.19美元/桶，本周涨4.47%；布伦特原油主力合约涨 0.23%报68.74美元/桶，本周涨4.10%。 在消息面上， 美联储最关注的通胀指标——美国8月核心PCE价格指数涨幅符合市场预期，显示通胀企 稳，暂时缓和市场对通胀上行的担忧。分析人士认为，这份数据为美联储应对劳动力市场降温提供了更 多空间，并强化了市场对未来进一步降息的预期。数据公布后，芝商所美联储观察工具预计，美联储10 月降息的可能性为89.8%，12月降息的可能性为65.1%。 美国8月核心PCE同比上升2.9%，符合市场预期，显示通胀压力有所缓解。美联储理事鲍曼重申，美国 就业市场极为"脆弱"，通胀则接近美联储目标，因此呼吁坚定降息。鲍曼还提出，美联储应努力将资产 负债表控制在最小规模，并改革其货币政策执行机制。 鲍曼表示，应该考虑出售抵押贷款支持证券，美联储的紧急工具不应成为永久性的；预计通 ...

9月26日公布的数据显示，美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率与前值持平，为2.9%，8月核心PCE物价指数 月率也与前值持平，为0.2%。同时公布的美国8月PCE物价指数年率从前值2.6%小幅升至2.7%，8月PCE 物价指数月率也从前值0.2%小幅升至0.3%。 上述美国最新的8月PCE和核心PCE物价数据并未出现市场担心的大幅反弹，这反映出美国经济的通货 膨胀反弹的风险并非如市场预期那样严重。更加准确地说，正如笔者在先前文章中所阐述的，美国经济 所面临的主要问题不是通货膨胀，而是经济下行的风险。 显然，美联储基于上述经济数据将会在对货币政策做出决策时更加注重就业市场的情况，而非通货膨 胀。由此，美联储未来将会进一步降息，只是降息的幅度和速度将会非常谨慎。 目前美国经济似乎仍然具有很强的韧性，然而在制造业和就业市场方面却都显示了疲态。市场中总是有 一些有识之士对美国的经济前景怀有疑虑，但是谁都不知道那根压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草究竟是什么。 巴菲特先生说："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才能够知道谁在裸泳"。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research and its continuous evolution, highlighting the team's commitment to providing valuable independent research outcomes for 2025 and beyond [8][10]. Group 1: Macro Investment - The article outlines ten essential readings for macro investment, tracking major asset performances and macro trends since the beginning of the year, including changes in gold, RMB/USD exchange rates, and bond yields [8]. Group 2: Domestic Economy - Six key judgments regarding the domestic economy have been made, addressing areas such as tariff impacts, policy framework shifts, and new economic drivers, which differ from mainstream market expectations [8]. Group 3: 2025 Outlook - The year 2025 is positioned as a pivotal year for the research team, focusing on restructuring research frameworks and systematically presenting research findings, adhering to the principle of providing actionable insights [8]. Group 4: Classic Review - A review of Trump's "big cycle" and the re-evaluation of the dollar exchange rate is presented, discussing global trade imbalances and the U.S. twin deficits, along with potential solutions to these issues [10]. Group 5: Excess Savings - The article discusses the phenomenon of excess savings surpassing 10 trillion, questioning who is contributing to this increase and exploring potential release paths compared to international experiences [12]. Group 6: Interest Rate Trends - The article analyzes the implications of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, examining historical patterns of long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the associated market dynamics [16]. Group 7: High-Frequency Tracking - Following the Federal Reserve's September meeting, global stock indices have generally continued to rise, indicating a positive market response to the anticipated interest rate cuts [18].