Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates remain unchanged, aligning with market expectations [1] - Since January's meeting, there has been ongoing pressure from Trump on Powell to lower interest rates, including threats of dismissal, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1]

在美联储释放出可能推迟降息的明确信号后，市场的焦点已迅速转向今晚20:30公布的通胀数据，交易员们正从中寻找价格压力持续的证据。 在周三的政策会议上，美联储决定维持利率不变。更重要的是，美联储主席鲍威尔的表态暗示，投资者可能需要等待更长时间，才能迎来今年的 首次降息。这一鹰派信号立即使市场情绪发生逆转，货币市场对9月降息的押注概率从会前的80%骤降至40%。 如果即将公布的PCE价格指数显示通胀具有粘性，那么市场对于"更长时间维持高利率"的预期可能会进一步巩固。据经济学家预计，核心PCE月 率将从0.2%攀升至0.3%。鲍威尔此前已明确表示，粘性通胀仍是一个风险。 受此影响，美国国债在周四收复了部分失地。此前一天，鹰派的美联储决议导致国债遭到抛售，推动美国两年期国债收益率在周三单日上升7个基 点。周四，该收益率回落1个基点至3.93%，但整个7月份已累计攀升超过20个基点。十年期美国国债收益率则在周四小幅下降3个基点，至 4.34%。 如果即将公布的PCE价格指数显示通胀具有粘性，那么市场对于"更长时间维持高利率"的预期可能会进一步巩固。据经济学家预计，核心PCE月 率将从0.2%攀升至0.3%。鲍威尔此前已 ...

值得注意的是，尽管黄金价格在利率决议公布后表现相对稳健，但鲍威尔随后在新闻发布会上缺乏明确 前瞻性的言论，削弱了市场对年内降息的信心。GTC泽汇表示，这种"数据依赖型"表态令投资者陷入观 望，黄金作为非息资产在高利率环境下吸引力受到一定抑制。 与此同时，部分市场分析人士认为，鲍威尔虽未正面释放降息信号，但讲话中仍透露出偏向宽松的语 气。例如，他提到长期通胀预期依旧锚定在2%目标附近，并认为关税带来的价格压力属于短期现象。 GTC泽汇认为，这可能意味着在通胀没有持续性走高的前提下，美联储仍具备政策调整的空间。 联邦储备主席鲍威尔近日重申，美联储在是否降息的问题上仍持观望态度，这一表态显著打击了市场对 9月宽松政策的预期，令黄金价格面临短期压力。GTC泽汇表示，当前的政策语境缺乏明确指引，使得 市场风险偏好与避险情绪之间出现反复，黄金走势因此呈现调整格局。 从市场预期变化来看，鲍威尔讲话后，降息概率有所回落，反映出投资者对短期宽松的信心削弱。GTC 泽汇表示，尽管如此，部分经济学家依旧认为9月存在政策调整的可能性，尤其是在未来经济数据若出 现走弱的情况下，委员会可能会选择先发制人的应对策略。 尽管本次会议如市场普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with a significant reduction in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 65% to below 50% [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve's decision was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [4]. - The meeting statement included new language indicating "economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year," reflecting concerns about growth momentum [4]. - There is a shift in focus from solely inflation to also considering employment market risks, suggesting that if employment deteriorates, the Fed may prioritize action [4][8]. Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - The potential for a rate cut in September will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment [7]. - If inflation data shows an increase due to tariffs or rising import prices, it could delay any rate cuts [7]. - The current unemployment rate is stable, but weak corporate investment and reduced immigration could lead to job market deterioration, with a threshold of 4.5% unemployment potentially triggering a rate cut [7]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the Fed's meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the annual expected rate cuts revised from 2.2 to 1.8 times [8]. - The risk of "moderate stagflation" in the U.S. economy is rising, with second-quarter real private consumption growth at only 1.2% and weak corporate capital expenditures [8]. - Short-term market volatility increased, with declines in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar, reflecting the market's absorption of the Fed's hawkish signals [10]. Group 4: External Variables - Political pressure from former President Trump on Fed Chair Powell regarding rate cuts poses a challenge to the Fed's independence [10]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico, could impact inflation risks if tariffs are escalated [10].

美国财长贝森特：不确定不降息的理由是什么。为美联储主席候选人列出一份好名单。美联储委员会将 有两席空缺。 ...

（文章来源：金十数据） 特朗普：鲍威尔又不降息，他行动太迟了，而且实际上，他太愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化了，不适合担任 美联储主席。 ...

但鲍威尔手握通胀数据这道防火墙。尽管整体通胀有所回落，核心PCE物价指数仍停留在2.6%，距离2%目标尚有差距。他深知1970年代政治干预央行引发 的滞胀灾难，在美联储内部会议中反复强调：决策必须基于经济数据，而非政治压力。面对特朗普不降息就换人的威胁，他在镜头前那个微小的摇头动作， 成为技术官僚最后的无声抵抗。 特朗普这个人最大的毛病，就是志得意满！本来这件事只出了80分的成绩，他偏要说自己做到了100分。 前几天，美国总统特朗普在摄像机簇拥下径直走向主席鲍威尔，这是二十年来首次有在任总统踏入这个全球金融权力的圣殿。他借视察大楼翻新工程之名， 手指天花板抛出质问：31亿美元！远超预算。 特朗普话音未落，鲍威尔面无表情地摇头纠正数据错误。这场精心编排的逼宫戏背后，特朗普真正目的昭然若揭：当面施压美联储立即启动降息。 PAN 8 3 rig the 27200 20000 15 12 483 are 7 2 2 011 0-11 AND START arm ar sing in 20 03 11 - 6 ten The a are all 018 TIPE AM rall and Press of the st ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with no guidance on a potential rate cut in September [1] - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, primarily due to reduced consumer spending and weak exports, although business investment, particularly in equipment and intangible assets, has increased [3] - The housing market remains weak, with a long-term shortage in housing supply and insufficient construction rates [3] Employment Market - Powell expressed an optimistic view on the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth is still outpacing inflation, providing support for consumption and economic stability [4] - There are no clear signs of weakness in the job market, which contributes to the Fed's reluctance to rush into rate cuts [4] Inflation Concerns - Powell stated that the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target is more than halfway complete, with service inflation slowing but goods inflation rising [6] - As of June, the overall PCE price index increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.7% [6] - Tariffs are identified as a new variable affecting inflation, with some goods becoming more expensive due to tariffs, leading to a slight increase in market inflation expectations [6] Tariff Details - Powell elaborated on tariffs, indicating that their impact on prices is slower than previously anticipated, and the current inflation data reflects only the beginning of tariff-induced inflation [7] - He emphasized the challenge of isolating the effects of tariffs from overall price changes, as prices are a composite result [7] - The Fed aims to ensure that price increases due to tariffs do not evolve into persistent inflation, balancing the timing of their actions to avoid unnecessary harm to the job market [7] Future Guidance - The Fed has not provided strong signals for the market, neither committing to a September rate cut nor closing the door on future cuts, opting instead to observe incoming data [10] - Powell highlighted the importance of upcoming data releases in determining the Fed's next steps, including inflation trends, the ongoing impact of tariffs, and labor market resilience [10] - The market is advised to remain patient and await clearer signals before making assumptions about potential rate cuts [10]

7 月 FOMC：降息渐近前的分歧 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 31 日 —宏观点评报告 事件 北京时间 7 月 31 日凌晨，美联储公布 7 月议息结果，联邦公 开市场委员会以 9 票赞成、2 票反对的投票结果将基准联邦基 金利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变 ▌ 利率变动前的非一致票 联储投票如预期般出现矛盾，本次议息会议上美联储的理事 沃勒和鲍曼主张降息，对利率决议投反对票，是近 30 年以来 首次有两位理事同时投下反对票。6 月份议息会议以来，鲍曼 和沃勒连续的鸽派发言推动的降息交易升温，两者均认为关 税通胀是一次性冲击，且就业市场有走弱风险，建议提前降 息。争议的出现意味着对于降息的讨论变多，历史上联储出 现非一致票的时候往往也意味着利率变动的接近（加息或降 息），因此整体上投票的分歧对于降息来说反而是一个较好 的信号，关注沃勒和鲍曼周五的发言 ▌ 经济持续降温，关注非农 非农依然是主要的降息触发因素。美国当前保持了通胀抬头 压力有限，且经济稳定降温的格局，二季度美国 GDP 环比折 年率为 3%，但主要是关税抢进口停止后，净出口项由拖累转 为支撑所致，2025 年二季度美国净进口同比贡 ...

金十数据7月31日讯，美国6月核心PCE物价指数将于北京时间今晚20:30公布。昨日公布的二季度核心 PCE物价指数年化季率高于预期，暗示6月或出现通胀回升势头。但若数据不及预期，料推动9月降息的 押注升温。届时警惕行情波动…… 查看更多重要日程 今晚必盯！美联储最青睐通胀指标来袭 ...