4月3日-4日，美股缩水约6.6万亿美元，为史上最大的两日市值蒸发。 4月3日，人民币兑美元汇率迅速跌破7.3；4月9日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中跌至7.4290。4月3日以来，澳元、韩元、越南盾等亚太货币亦跌至数年新 低。 4月7日，延续了前几个交易日跌势后，国际金价跌破3000美元/盎司关口，至三周来最低水平。 "有时候几十年什么都没有发生，有时候几周却发生了几十年的事。"——在美国总统特朗普征收"对等关税"后，这成为全球金融市场巨震最为恰切的注 脚。 这场金融风暴背后的起因是远超市场预期的关税之战。 据新华社报道，当地时间4月2日，特朗普在白宫签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴 征收更高关税。 短短几日后，美国与多国的博弈再度加剧。 据新华社报道，国务院关税税则委员会4月9日发布公告称，经国务院批准，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美 国的进口商品加征关税的公告》规定的加征关税税率，由34%提高至84%。其他事项按照税委会公告2025年第4号文件执行。 4月11日，中国财政部发布公告，称将调整《国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond ETF market is experiencing significant trading activity and inflows, indicating strong investor interest and potential growth in this sector [1][2][6]. Trading Activity - The company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.02% to a price of 105.64 yuan, while the national development bond ETF (159651) showed mixed trading with a price of 105.77 yuan [1]. - The national treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) rose by 0.04%, reaching 117.16 yuan [1]. - The company bond ETF had a turnover rate of 15.82% with a transaction volume of 2.04 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume for the company bond ETF was 2.527 billion yuan [1]. Fund Flows - The company bond ETF saw a net inflow of 1.166 billion yuan over four days, with a peak single-day inflow of 527 million yuan [2]. - The national development bond ETF attracted a total of 69.658 million yuan in net inflows over the same period [2]. - The national treasury ETF for 5 to 10 years recorded a net inflow of 31.368 million yuan over nine trading days [2]. Fund Size and Shares - The latest size of the company bond ETF reached 12.894 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant increase in size, growing by 49.713 million yuan over the past week [1]. - The national development bond ETF also saw an increase of 2.142 million shares in the past month, ranking it among the top in its category [1]. Market Conditions - The bond market has largely priced in high tariffs, with future trends remaining uncertain [6]. - The yield on government bonds has rebounded significantly, reflecting a shift away from pricing in financial crisis risks [6]. - The RMB has depreciated against a basket of currencies, with the USD/RMB exchange rate reaching 7.4, which may limit monetary easing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in China's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) operations in the bond market and the implications for liquidity and interest rates in the financial system [1][6]. Group 1: Current Issues in the Bond Market - After the Spring Festival, funding rates have significantly deviated upwards from the reverse repurchase rate, with the 7-day rate exceeding the upper limit of the interest rate corridor during tax periods [2]. - The market is experiencing confusion regarding policy pricing due to the lack of a policy anchor for government bond rates and the unknown acceptable interest rate level from the PBOC [2]. Group 2: MLF Operations - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has resumed net injections, characterized by three key features: advance announcement of bidding, cessation of publishing the winning rate, and a return to conventional monetary tool attributes [3]. - The MLF's cost is now close to the interbank deposit rate, indicating its potential role as a regular liquidity tool moving forward [3]. Group 3: OMO Announcements - Starting March 25, the PBOC began to publish both the bidding and winning amounts for reverse repos, which may provide new insights into the central bank's policy stance [4]. - The difference between the bidding and winning amounts can reflect the market's liquidity demand and the PBOC's monetary policy attitude [4]. Group 4: Government Bond Transactions - The PBOC has not resumed government bond purchases, opting instead for a significant reverse repo injection of 800 billion yuan [5]. - The current demand for long-term liquidity from commercial banks remains high, and the resumption of government bond transactions may be necessary for providing long-term liquidity [5]. Group 5: Implications of Policy Changes - The recent policy changes suggest a more transparent communication method between the PBOC and the market, enhancing channels for expectation management [7]. - The PBOC's decision to pause government bond purchases may be influenced by the need to maintain independence and avoid exacerbating supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [7].

二季度债市或仍需保持谨慎，30年国债指数ETF(511130)近5个交易日合计"吸 金"超5.5亿元 超额收益方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF成立以来超越基准年化收益为0.14%。 截至2025年3月26日 11:06，30年国债指数ETF(511130)多空胶着，最新报价108.39元，盘中成交额已达10.28亿元，换手率16.63%。 规模方面，30年国债指数ETF最新规模达61.89亿元，创近1年新高。 资金流入方面，30年国债指数ETF近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"5.51亿元，日均净流入达1.10亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债指数ETF本月以来融资净买额达648.01万元，最新融资余额达1.80亿元。 绝对收益方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月 数比为8/3，上涨月份平均收益率为1.90%，月盈利百分比为72.73%，月盈利概率为72.89%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。 回撤方面，截至2025年3月25日，30年国债指数ETF ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the financing demand in the real economy remains to be boosted, particularly in traditional industries, which require further monetary policy support. The current cautious stance of the central bank may lead to continued pressure on the bond market in March, but a potential "targeted reserve requirement and interest rate cut" is expected to materialize in the second quarter, guiding a new downward trend in the bond market [6][14][19] - In February 2025, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 22,333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan. The government bonds contributed significantly to this increase, with a year-on-year rise of 10,956 billion yuan, marking the highest level in recent years. However, the growth of special bonds was limited, with only an additional 1,000 billion yuan in the first two months [8][11][14] - The report indicates that the short-term outlook for the bond market is less favorable, with interest rates likely to rise above 1.90% by the end of March due to banks' needs to realize OCI floating profits. However, in the long term, interest rates are expected to decline again as monetary policy loosening takes effect [6][14][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently utilized, and there may not be a strong necessity for further easing in the short term. The central bank's cautious approach, combined with obstacles in credit issuance, may lead to different market reactions in the short and long term [11][13][14] - The financing willingness of enterprises and residents remains low, particularly in traditional sectors, which still require monetary policy support. The report suggests that the second quarter may see the implementation of monetary policy measures to stimulate financing demand in the real economy and alleviate banking operational pressures [14][19][27] - The report recommends gradually positioning investments around the end of March to capitalize on the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the second quarter, which could drive a new round of strength in the bond market [14][19][27]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The inflation rate in February showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of -0.4% and the previous value of 0.5% [3][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of -2.1% but higher than the previous value of -2.3% [5][20] - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are expected to remain low, with CPI fluctuating between 0-1% in the near term, while PPI is anticipated to show slight recovery [7][27] Data Summary - February CPI year-on-year growth was -0.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2% [3][9] - February PPI year-on-year growth was -2.2%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.1% [5][20] - The core CPI for February showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.1%, marking the first negative growth in nearly four years [4][10] Specific Analysis - The report highlights that the CPI's decline is primarily due to the significant drop in food prices, which fell by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing to over 80% of the total CPI decline [4][10] - The PPI's decline is attributed to seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, slow post-holiday resumption of production, and falling prices of some international commodities [5][20] - The report notes that the core CPI's negative growth reflects weak demand and a need for improved supply-demand relationships to stabilize prices [7][30] Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI will experience low fluctuations in the near term, while the PPI is expected to gradually recover as the impact of seasonal factors diminishes [7][27] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a loose monetary policy to support economic recovery and stabilize prices [7][30] - The bond market is expected to face short-term adjustments, but the long-term trend remains unchanged, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize between 1.8% and 2.0% [7][30]

在到达止损位时，必须坚定止损，绝对不能拖延，心存侥幸地做希望交易，让"跌了 - 有希望"的人性弱点在脑子里发酵和强化。越拖延越下不了手，直到 情绪奔溃，越怕止损在最高点，越有可能止损在（收益率的）最高点。 ——笔记哥《应对》 犹记得，去年4月以来，央妈每次苦口婆心、提示风险，债农总是不屑一顾、名曰"倒车接人"。而近期债市"倒车撞人"，终于让债农认清谁才是市场的 Queen。 不打你，不是打不过你，而是舍不得打疼你。娃儿们可长点心吧！ 【笔记20250310— 30年国债升破2.0%（-午后股市回升+2月通胀数据低于预期+资金面平衡宽松=中上)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展965亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有970亿元逆回购到期。此外，今日国库现金定存中标总量1500亿元。合计净投放1495亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格较为平稳，DR001与DR007均在1.8%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.10) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].

看法说多了，自己都信了，以至于错了还在坚持，甚至自己都知道错了，也为了面子而坚守，找各种理由说服自己继续坚持。这是在潜移默化中自己迷失 自己。 1月LPR按兵不动、符合预期，资金面有所缓和、资金价格仍不便宜，债市利率小幅上行。 周末主席同特朗普通电话，市场对中美关系的悲观预期有所缓和。早盘债市情绪偏弱，10Y国债利率小幅高开在1.65%。1月LPR报价保持不变，符合预 期。股市冲高回落，10Y国债利率小幅下行至1.64%。午后存单表现持续偏弱，利率小幅上行至1.647%。 今日全球市场的焦点无疑是"懂王登基"，从发行虚拟币"夫妻双双把韭割"，到计划上任后立即签署100项行政命令，只有你想不到，没有懂王做不到。不 过影响今日债市的核心变量并非中美关系改善的叙事，而依旧是资金面，虽较上周有所改善，但也谈不上宽松，资金价格仍然偏贵。本周三有9595亿元逆 回购到期，"救我救我"，希望央妈能包个春节红包给大家开心过年。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250120— 懂王登基，流量变现（-周末中美元首通电话-资金面偏紧=小上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1230亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有 ...

3、十年国债期货主力合约刷新史高，已经把周三周四挖的坑都填回去了。注意这个是期货合约，一些现货的etf可能离史高还差几分钱。就像前面说的， 明年预期下调40-50bp，这样的背景下债市的价格很难靠人为打压。说实话债市目前最大的风险来自股市，一旦股市突然暴起狂牛，会有大量抛售债券转 投股市，9月底那一波已经证明了这个逻辑，a股不雄起的话，债牛无人能挡。 我来叻～帮大家把周末的事情捋一下。 1、首先是回溯一下周五，20日，12月份的LPR一如预期，没有任何变化。5年期的维持3.6%，1年期的3.1%。最近甚至有部分地方（比如广州）的银行上 调了房贷利率，从2.x%涨回到了3%，但这并非因为当地房市回暖反弹，而是因为银行的息差太小造成经营压力，被迫又往回调。在这种背景下LPR短期 很难继续下跌，需要一点时间来消化存贷的息差压力。 整个2024年LPR一共下调过3次，分别是2月份下调0.25%，7月份下调0.1%，10月份下调0.25%，另外银行还把前几年上浮比例的部分也取消了，这些在客 观上很大幅度降低了月供的压力。缓解了楼市的压力。 至于明年，我已经讲过好几遍了，大概是下调40-50bp的预期，诸位到时候就喜迎2 ...