21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 4月28日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革 委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜 介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。 面对美国滥施关税，后续中国如何加力扩内需为外界所关注。4月25日，中共中央政治局会议分析研究 当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济 增长的拉动作用。尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度，扩 围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上回应记者提问表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方 法也非常明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内大循环。下一 步，国家发展改革委将认真落实党中央、国务院决策部署，扎实做好这三方面工作。 在提振消费方面，近期已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下达超过1600亿元，后 续还有1400亿元左右，我们会根据各地支付进度陆续下达。还将建立实施育儿补贴制度，创设专项 ...

Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.34 yuan [12] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, up 62.13% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.31 yuan [12] - The company's gross margin improved due to higher margins on staple and canned products, with gross margins increasing by 1.88 and 4.02 percentage points year-on-year to 28.16% and 31.87% respectively in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12][13] - The company focused on enhancing its own brand marketing, leading to a significant increase in brand recognition and sales, with a 131% year-on-year growth in GMV during the Double 11 shopping festival in 2024 [13][15] - The company expanded its overseas market presence, entering 9 new countries in 2024, and its overseas revenue growth rate was 14.62% for the year, with further production capacity expansion planned for Canada and the US [15][16] Industry Research - The overall number of equity funds increased to 6,774 by the end of Q1 2025, with a total scale of 74,529.42 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,005.15 billion yuan from the previous quarter [9] - The average equity fund position increased, with flexible allocation funds seeing the largest rise of 1.44 percentage points to 71.90% [9][10] - The industry saw an increase in allocation towards automotive and non-ferrous metals, while reducing exposure to electric power equipment and non-bank financials [10][11]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need for policies to address external shocks, focusing on expanding domestic demand and investing in the AI industry [1][4][17] - The macro policy tone from the April Politburo meeting is described as both proactive and reserved, with an emphasis on implementing more active macro policies and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments [1][17] - The report highlights the importance of service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, alongside a strong focus on technological innovation and the implementation of the "AI+" initiative [1][17] Group 2 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.38% during the week of April 21-25 [7][11] - The report notes that sectors such as automotive, beauty care, and basic chemicals performed well, indicating a recovery in the export-related industries [7][14][16] - The report suggests that the AI industry is expected to see significant growth, with major Chinese internet companies increasing their capital expenditures significantly in Q4 2024, indicating a strong future performance for the domestic AI industry chain [14][24] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall market valuation is relatively low, with the Wan De All A Index's price-to-book ratio at 1.53, which is below historical averages, suggesting strong long-term investment value [14][41] - The report highlights the potential for structural market trends post-May Day holiday, with a focus on domestic demand expansion and the AI industry as key themes [15][24] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment, including service consumption, AI industry chain components, and self-sufficiency areas such as national defense and industrial machinery [24][25][26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to focus on resilient companies with high dividends and those benefiting from domestic demand expansion, recommending companies such as Dongfang Yuhong, Sankeshu, Tubao, Weixing New Materials, and Beixin Building Materials [1] - The report highlights the expected commencement of major national projects, particularly the Yarlung project, and recommends companies involved in these projects, such as Zhongyan Dadi [1] - The report notes the high demand in the civil explosives sector, recommending companies like Guangdong Hongda and Xuefeng Technology [1] - The report discusses the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on domestic investment expectations, recommending companies like China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1] - The report mentions the trend of domestic substitution in the paint industry, recommending companies like Maijia Xincai and Songjing Co., Ltd. [1] - The report anticipates a renewed catalyst for the "Belt and Road" strategy amid trade tensions, recommending international engineering companies such as China State Construction and China Metallurgical Group [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 17th week of April, new home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 21% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 21% year-on-year [2][21] - The national cement market price fell by 0.5% this week, with price adjustments mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China [3][23] Cement Industry - The average operating load of cement mills nationwide is 49.04%, down 1.83 percentage points from last week [3][34] - The report indicates that the cement price is expected to continue its downward trend due to weak supply-demand dynamics [23] Recommendations - Companies with strong operational resilience and high dividends are recommended to benefit from domestic demand stimulation, including Dongfang Yuhong and Weixing New Materials [8] - Companies in the copper mining sector, such as Jinchengxin, are expected to see significant growth due to resource release and strong demand [8] - Companies involved in the Yarlung project and civil explosives are also highlighted for their growth potential [8] - The report suggests focusing on infrastructure investment, recommending companies like China State Construction and China Communications Construction [8] - The report identifies domestic paint companies as beneficiaries of the trend towards local substitution [8]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高，而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量，还是就业意愿来看，美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高，也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响，美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险，特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭，对低收入人群损害更大，加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上，从经济视角来看，美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题，但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源：US Census Bureau，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is experiencing mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight increase while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index has declined. Key stocks to watch include Youyou Food and New Dairy [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% during the week of April 21-25, 2025, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index fell by 1.66% [1] - The top five performing stocks in the food and beverage sector were Youyou Food, Anji Food, Haoxiangni, Kuaijishan, and New Dairy [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on Hong Kong food and beverage stocks such as Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer, Budweiser, Mengniu Dairy, and others [2] - The white liquor sector is advised to consider leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on both strong alpha and cyclical beta stocks [2] - In the consumer goods sector, there is a short-term emphasis on snacks and dairy products, with recommendations for companies like Anjijia Food and Yili Group [2] Group 3: Consumption Trends - In March 2025, China's retail sales showed a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3] - The importance of domestic demand is increasing due to external uncertainties, with expectations for further consumption policy support [3] Group 4: Industry Developments - The new national standard for special medical infant formula food will be implemented on March 16, 2027, allowing companies to register products according to the new standards starting from the announcement date [5] - The 112th National Sugar and Wine Fair attracted 6,612 exhibitors and showcased over 300,000 new products, highlighting the industry's innovation trends [11] Group 5: Company News - Shanxi Fenjiu's board of directors underwent significant changes ahead of the 2024 annual report, with new candidates nominated to enhance governance [14] - Luzhou Laojiao has reportedly not received any official notice regarding the suspension of orders and shipments, despite media reports suggesting otherwise [16]

4月22日至23日，省委副书记、省长周乃翔在临沂市、菏泽市调研，强调要深入学习贯彻习近平总书记 重要指示精神，认真落实党中央、国务院决策部署，按照省委工作要求，牢牢把握高质量发展这个新时 代的硬道理，稳扎稳打、踏踏实实，统筹推进扩内需、稳外贸、惠民生、保安全等各项工作，推动经济 持续稳健向好、进中提质。 在临沂市，周乃翔来到临沂现代物流城、深度（山东）数字科技集团有限公司，调研商贸物流运行、数 字商贸等情况，希望临沂市千方百计扩大内需，加快商城国际化、数字化转型，进一步做优服务、降低 物流成本，打造临沂未来发展新的增长极。在万德福冻干科技有限公司，他了解产品出口等情况，希望 企业创新贸易方式，加大国际市场开拓力度，积极拓展内销市场。他指出，各级各有关部门要强化助企 服务，支持企业稳订单拓市场，努力稳住外贸基本盘。 在菏泽市，周乃翔来到巨野县核桃园镇前王庄村，指出要大力发展乡村旅游业，尊重农民意愿，优化生 态环境，加强文化遗产、乡村风貌保护，完善利益联结机制，促进群众增收致富。山东三禛电器装配有 限公司是一家韩资劳动密集型企业，周乃翔与企业负责人亲切交流，希望企业不断增强竞争力，创造更 多就业岗位。他强调，要扎 ...

文/ 国盛证券首席经济学家 熊园 ， 国盛证券宏观分析师 朱慧 按 惯 例 ， 4 月 底 将 召 开 经 济 工 作 相 关 的 政 治 局 会 议 ， 基 于 一 季 度 经 济 表 现、 对等关税 进展。 本 文 前瞻 认 为， 会议 总基 调应 会更 加积 极、 更 加扩 张、应会有"真金白银"（实际规模与节奏相机抉择），立足当下、着眼长 远 ， 全 力 " 稳 预 期 、 稳 增 长 、 稳 外 贸 、 稳 就 业 、 稳 股 市 、 稳 楼 市 " 等 各 种"稳"，应会加力推动既定的存量政策落地，也应会推出一批增量政策， 尤其是"更大力度的中央加杠杆、更持续的稳股市稳楼市、更精准的扩内 按惯例，4月底将召开经济工作相关的政治局会议，基于一季度经济表现、对等关税进展，近期总理座谈会、国常会、国新办发布会等系列会议，我们有4 点前瞻： 前瞻1 经济形势上，应会肯定一季度经济起步平稳、开局良好、延续回升向好态势，但应也会直面困难，着重强调"今年的形势比较特殊"，包括外部环境更趋严 峻复杂、外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定压力、内需增长动力不足等。 一方面，应会肯定经济运行中的积极因素持续增多，如延续 ...

长江证券指出，在国际宏观扰动下，把握布局科技产业趋势的窗口期，应对策略：1）首先，以史为 鉴，参考2018年特朗普实施关税正式落地的A股市场表现，自主可控+扩内需+稳定类（如公用事业等红 利板块）+反制行业表现较好。2）考虑到目前A股、港股和美股市场均已大幅调整，短期情绪达到较低 的位置，其中美股的波动率VIX指数攀升至历史较高位置，预计短期市场或出现阶段性反弹。3）未来 市场风险偏好的持续提升需等待国内外政策的变化，一是美国债券和股市流动性问题或倒逼美联储释放 更多流动性，二是国内出口数据若出现较大变化，或需更多货币财政政策支持，三是贸易关系的变化。 未来潜在风险点是中概股相关的金融政策，或对港股市场产生风险偏好的压制。在宏观扰动下，把握布 局产业趋势的窗口期，重点关注恒生科技指数、AI+（含机器人）和新消费方向。 公开信息显示，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）在A股上市的同赛道ETF中规模和流动性双双领先，支持 T+0交易。恒生科技指数ETF（513180）兼具新科技与新消费属性，在外围扰动下具备韧性：1）新科 技：恒生科技代表了中国AI核心资产，成分股深度聚焦AI产业链的上中下游，其中阿里、腾讯、小 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，扩内需信号进一步明确，主要涉及就业、地产、股市、服务消费等。 1 、高层定调：总理在三次会议或调研上，均高度关注经济问题。 1 ） 4 月 15 日， 总理在北京调研 消费及地产相关内容。 2 ） 4 月 17 日， 总理主持国务院专题学习，以预期管理为主题，提出要"要 讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影 响。 要把握政策力度，必要时敢于打破常规 "。 3 ） 4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会，研究稳就业 稳经济问题。提出要" 锚定经济社会发展目标 ，加大逆周期调节力度"。 2 、股市楼市： 1 ） 4 月 15 日 ，总理在北京调研时提出，"当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场 仍有很大的发展空间"。 2 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常会，"要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产 市场平稳健康发展"。 3 、消费及就业 ： 1 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常 ...