中国从美国进口的原油天然气等能源资源占比较小，关税对石油炼化产品的价格影响有限。2024 年中国原油进口量 55349 万吨，液化天然气（LNG）进口量 7738 万吨，其中从美国进口的原油仅 963.8 万吨，占比仅 1.74%，从美国进 口的 LNG 仅 443.3 万吨，占比 5.73%。2025 年 2 月，中国从美国进口原油共 26.45 万吨，环比减少 67.35%，同比减少 65.08%；进口 LNG6.58 万吨，环比减少 66.14%，同比减少 5.39%，中国从美国进口的原油天然气逐渐减少。因此相比 于乙烷、丙烷，中国从美国进口的原油天然气占比较小，进口依存度较低，中国对美加征关税带来进口价格提升的影 响范围更小，因此主要的石油下游炼化产品诸如 PX、PTA 的价格及供给受关税带来的影响较轻，价格抬升的幅度及周 期较气头产品更小，可能在较短时间内可以寻求供应替代方案从而恢复到正常水平。 事件简介 在美国政府宣布对所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"后，4 月 4 日，中方一系列反制措施落地，除了对美国加征 34%关 税外，中方还对美国相关实体进行了制裁。自 2025 年 4 月 10 日起，中国对 ...

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 2024Q4 ，国内煤头尿素价差为 900 元 / 吨，同比 -575 元 / 吨，环比 -240 元 / 吨；醋酸价差为 1158 元 / 吨，同比 -224 元 / 吨，环比 -286 元 / 吨； DMF 价差 1556 元 / 吨，同比 -181 元 / 吨，环比 +68 元 / 吨； 己二酸价差为 -2347 元 / 吨，同比 -329 元 / 吨，环比 +695 元 / 吨。煤价方面， 2024Q4 国内动力煤（ Q5500 ）市场均价 826 元 / 吨，同比 -14% ，环比 -3% 。 24Q4 煤价持续下行，公司成本端持续受益，但 受产品供需走弱影响，尿素、醋酸等产品价差下滑，公司荆州基地一期投产贡献增量，以量补价带动公司 Q4 业绩同比大幅增长。 煤价下跌成本下行，煤化工产业链盈利有望改善 2024 年初以来，受煤炭下游钢铁、水泥等非电用煤需求疲软的影响，煤价持续下跌。 2024 年初以来，煤 炭主要产地安监趋严，国务院、应急管理部等部门出台严格的安监政策，主产地供应有望偏紧。《煤矿安 全生产条例》于 2024 年 5 月 1 日起施行，针对当前煤矿领域存在的 ...

摘要 ■ 投资逻辑 投资建议： 我们看好全年新技术相关标的在光伏板块中的投资机会，当前时点建议关注以下三条主线：1）有望率先实现盈利修复的头部TOPCon电池企业；2）更具"成长"标签的新技术类设备/组 厂商；3）少银/无银金属化浆料方案供应商。（详细内容请见正文） 投资逻辑： TOPCon路线：电池组件盈利持续修复，头部产能升级有望加速出清进程。 随着分布式结束全额上网时代及新能源全面入市的政策节点将近，Q1后半段开始终端需求持续向好，产业链中下 价格随之修复，根据infolink，2月中旬以来，硅片/电池/组件环节涨幅中枢分别为7%/13%/7%，各环节盈利持续修复，其中TOPCon电池片环节根据我们测算，头部企业210R电池片已有1-2分 净利，综合考虑各型号产品出货比例后，整体仍在盈亏平衡以上，率先实现阶段性盈利转正，技术优势十分明显。同时2025年TOPCon提效降本预期乐观，边缘钝化、栅线优化、背面pol 薄、多分片等技术导入有望助力TOPCon电池效率提升0.5%以上，根据我们测算，截至Q1末头部企业TOPCon电池非硅成本约0.14元/W，预计年底有望降至0.13元/W以下，根据我们判断 TO ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.226 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.26%, with a net profit of 0.854 billion yuan, up 31.61% year-on-year and 3.52% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company's performance in Q4 2024 improved due to increased production and sales of core products, despite a decline in gross margin [6] - The company has launched new production capacities in the adipic acid and melamine resin sectors, which are expected to drive future performance [7] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.358 billion, 4.893 billion, and 5.377 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 18.71%, down 2.14 percentage points year-on-year, with major products experiencing price declines [6] - The average prices for key products in 2024 showed a decline, with DMF, acetic acid, and urea prices decreasing by 14.4%, 11.7%, and 14.3% respectively [6] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 46.658 billion yuan in 2024 to 65.822 billion yuan in 2027 [14] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a total production capacity of 526,600 tons for adipic acid, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its competitive position in the chemical new materials and fertilizer sectors [9] - The company maintains a leading market share in DMF production, with a domestic market share of 30% [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacities and a strong cost control advantage, with product prices currently at a low point [10] - The projected revenue growth for the next few years is expected to be 4.6% in 2025, 8.2% in 2026, and 2.3% in 2027 [11]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 国内传统油气市场需求减弱，新兴领域表现突出 公司核心业务防爆电器板块2024年实现营收25.06亿元，同比下降 3.5%。国内传统油气领域因资本开支收 缩导致新建项目减少，拖累板块发展，但是公司积极拓展新兴市场，取得显著成绩。2024年防爆电器板块 收入中，安工智能系统营收3.62亿元，同比增长超 72%，尤其在危化园区的安工智能产品呈现供不应求态 势，订单增长显著；军工核电实现营收1.35亿元，同比增长超21%；海工收入1.68亿，同比增长19%。防爆 电器板块在海外市场表现突出，受益于海外运营中心的前瞻布局，防爆电器的外贸板块2024年营收达9.44 亿元，同比增长35%，创历史新高。另外，专业照明板块实现营收2.79亿元，同比增长3.6%，受到下游需 求萎缩与行业竞争加剧的双重压力。新能源板块实现营收11.07亿元，同比增长314.7%，为收入增长贡献 重要动力。 公司继续加强海外市场拓展，国内重点开拓新疆煤化工方向 防爆电器国际市场需求旺盛，目前公司的外贸业务除了北美地区，其他区域均有销售。沙特子公司已于 2024年9月投入运营，目前正在进行合格供应商入围和市场拓展工作， ...

文 ｜ 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 ▍ 主题环境：海外扰动加大，市场成交量萎缩，对业绩确定性高、估值相对位置低的资产关注度 提升。 1）国家主席习近平系统阐述了中国扩大开放、深化合作的政策方向。 2 0 2 5年3月2 8日，习近平 主席会见4 0余位国际工商界代表。习近平强调，外资企业是"中国式现代化的重要参与者，改革 开放和创新创造的重要参与者，联通世界、融入经济全球化的重要参与者"。面对全球经济不确 定性，习近平重申"对外开放是中国的基本国策"的坚定立场，承诺"利用外资政策没有变也不会 变"。 2）美国"对等关税"即将落地，外部扰动加大。 特朗普在当地时间3月2 3日表示，他将于4月2日 同时实施广泛的针对每个贸易伙伴的"对等关税"（r e c i p r o c a l t a riffs）以及额外的"行业特定关 税"（a d d iti o n a l s e c t o r-s p e c ifi c t a riffs）。美国关税政策的启动、反复无常和不确定性，以及 欧盟等主要贸易伙伴的关税反制，导致全球贸易困难升级，或将进一步抑制全球经济增长。 随 ...

上周150家上市公司获调研，化工品涨价行情受关注。 上周（3月24日至28日） 机构调研热情高涨，截至3月28日收盘， 共有150家上市公司披露机构调研纪要， 三花智控、劲仔食品、云天化等7家公司接受超百家机构调研。 上周内化工板块一度有亮眼表现，10余家上市公司集中接待机构调研，其中 云天化、卫星化学各自接待了 约140家机构调研，化工品涨价可能获得高度关注。 以磷产业为主业的云天化上周累计上涨超5%，周内最大涨幅达9%。 在调研中，云天化透露，近期国内磷 酸二铵市场维持稳定，受硫磺价格波动、春耕用肥以及复合肥开工率提升影响，磷酸一铵价格有所上涨。 受成本支撑以及供需偏紧影响，目前国际磷肥价格保持较高水平。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 = | F9 后复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 © ② > | 不大化 U | | 600096 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 600096.SHI云天化1 2025/03/28 收63.39 幅-2.56%(-1.66) 开64.95 高65.14 低63.04 均 .. 四 | | | -0.61 -2.56% | | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Basic Chemical Industry: Continuous Increase in Urea Price [1] - Report Date: March 30, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Shuxian, CFA [1] - Research Assistant: Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the weekly data of the basic chemical industry, including the price and profit changes of various chemical products, as well as the performance of related listed companies [2][8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - The basic chemical index had a 0.0% change in the past week, 0.9% in the past month, 2.8% in the past three months, 9.6% in the past year, and 5.3% since the beginning of 2025 [8] - Among related companies, Satellite Chemical had a significant increase in stock price, with a 7.2% increase in the past week, 6.8% in the past month, 23.9% in the past three months, and 38.1% in the past year [8] - The report also provides the profit tracking data of related companies, including total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB [8] - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI this week were 17,870 yuan/ton, 16,280 yuan/ton, and 11,983 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -170 yuan/ton, -420 yuan/ton, and +18 yuan/ton [2][8] - The corresponding gross profits were 3,971 yuan/ton, 3,407 yuan/ton, and 199 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of -100 yuan/ton, -336 yuan/ton, and -44 yuan/ton [2][8] - **Oil, Gas, and Olefin Industry Chain** - The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha this week were 1,531 yuan/ton, 4,523 yuan/ton, 540 yuan/ton, and 4,593 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -34 yuan/ton, +165 yuan/ton, +0 yuan/ton, and +35 yuan/ton [2][8] - The theoretical profits of ethylene production from ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking were 1,162 yuan/ton, 2,055 yuan/ton, and -197 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of +76 yuan/ton, +47 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton [2][8] - The theoretical profits of propylene production from PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking were -333 yuan/ton, 1,610 yuan/ton, and -453 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -159 yuan/ton, +0 yuan/ton, and -49 yuan/ton [2][8] - **Coal Chemical Industry Chain** - The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2,671 yuan/ton, 1,905 yuan/ton, 4,150 yuan/ton, and 2,642 yuan/ton respectively, with a week-on-week change of -29 yuan/ton, +64 yuan/ton, +110 yuan/ton, and -25 yuan/ton [2][10] - The corresponding gross profits were 725 yuan/ton, 218 yuan/ton, -291 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of +50 yuan/ton, +68 yuan/ton, +213 yuan/ton, and -28 yuan/ton [2][10] 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trend** - Not provided in the report - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector** - The report shows the price and profit trends of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [2][8] - **2.3 Oil, Gas, and Olefin Sector** - It presents the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, and naphtha, as well as the profit comparison of different production processes [2][8] - **2.4 Coal Chemical Sector** - The report shows the price and profit trends of coal chemical products such as synthetic ammonia, urea, and DMF [2][10]

Group 1 - The company announced a guarantee provided by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jinkai Limited, for a financing lease of up to 250 million yuan for its subsidiary, Fugu County Shenzhou Runze Wind Power Co., Ltd. [2] - Additionally, Jinkai Limited's subsidiary, Dasheng New Energy, provided a guarantee of up to 520 million yuan for its subsidiary, Chengde Fengning Co., Ltd., along with a pledge of 100% equity valued at 74.55 million yuan [2][5] - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantee balance provided by the company and its subsidiaries was 1,635.09 million yuan, accounting for 182.83% of the company's latest audited net assets [3][7] Group 2 - The company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Jinkai Xinjiang Coal-to-Gas Co., Ltd., with an investment of 200 million yuan, aimed at developing coal-to-natural gas projects [11][12] - The establishment of the subsidiary is part of the company's strategy to enhance its market competitiveness and support the transition to low-carbon energy [14][15] - The company aims to leverage its renewable energy capabilities to support the coal chemical industry in achieving a low-carbon transformation [15]

化工逆袭！ 最近，化工股涨疯了，今天更是集体涨停。整个化工板块有25只股票一度涨停或涨幅超过10%。三维股份、华融化 学、善水科技涨幅更是超过20%，江苏索普、渤海化学、福莱新材、丹化科技、红宝丽等涨停。最近，周期股如有 色、煤炭、化工等此起彼伏，究竟发生了什么？ 根据百川盈孚，2025年3月25日溴素市场均价为2.8万元/吨，相较于前一日上涨3000元/吨，相较于2025年初价格上涨 6500元/吨。2025年初至今，溴素市场价格经历多轮跳涨，累计涨幅已达30%。 此外，市场不时出现一些小品种价格暴涨的消息。据报道，近期双季戊四醇的原材料价格涨势也十分惊人，从2024 年10月的每吨2万多元，一路飙升至2025年3月的5.5万元/吨至6.3万元/吨区间，今年以来涨幅也超过了30%，部分高 端型号报价甚至突破了7万元/吨大关。这可能是近期化工股突然爆发的直接原因。 化工涨疯 3月27日早盘，化工股集体大爆发。整个化工板块有25只股票一度涨停或涨幅超过10%。 化工板块大幅拉升，还是与涨价及涨价预期有关。 2025年初至今，溴素市场价格经历多轮跳涨，累计涨幅已达 30%。此外，3月之后，脂肪醇价格一路走高，并突 ...