Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant frustration among EU member states [1][2] - The EU initially attempted to negotiate a balanced tariff of 10% but ended up facing a unilateral 30% tariff, indicating a failure in their negotiation strategy [1] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's decision to delay countermeasures against the U.S. has been criticized as a missed opportunity for a strong response [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is focused on implementing new customs tariffs rather than considering the impact on consumer prices, showcasing a hardline stance [2] - The EU's response has been perceived as weak, with the Commission acting as a spokesperson for U.S. policies rather than defending EU interests [2] - The situation highlights the vulnerability of the EU in the face of U.S. trade policies, suggesting that the EU may be seen as a tool for U.S. interests rather than a unified entity [2]

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of international operations for domestic enterprises, highlighting the increasing significance of overseas investments for domestic economic development [11] - The recent meeting between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Brazilian President Lula underscores the strengthening of China-Brazil relations, with bilateral trade reaching a record $181.5 billion in 2023 [11] - The Chinese government is committed to enhancing support for enterprises operating abroad, focusing on financial, insurance, and safety measures to create a better environment for business [11] Group 2: Overseas Policy Insights - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19] - The tariffs range from 25% to 50% depending on the country, with significant implications for international trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. administration's focus on reducing trade deficits may lead to further escalations in trade tensions, impacting global markets [19] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, driven by improved market sentiment [25] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest in A-shares [25] - The MSCI China A-share Index also saw a 1.06% increase, reflecting overall market optimism [25] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield has shown slight recovery, reflecting market adjustments to the evolving monetary policy landscape [49] - The expansion of the Bond Connect program to include more non-bank institutions is expected to enhance overseas asset allocation opportunities for domestic investors [50] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals have continued to decline, while precious metals have rebounded slightly, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [49] - The IEA reports that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, which may impact oil prices moving forward [49] - The Chinese government has set clear goals for new urbanization, which may influence agricultural and commodity markets in the long term [49]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, potentially affecting $84 billion worth of American imports, amid significant trade negotiation tensions between the two parties [1][3]. Summary by Sections EU's Retaliatory Measures - The EU has identified a second list of retaliatory tariffs targeting $84 billion worth of U.S. imports, including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [1][5]. - The initial list aimed at $95 billion worth of U.S. goods was reduced after consultations with businesses and EU member states [1][5]. - The EU's response is a direct reaction to U.S. President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods, which has created a significant divide in trade negotiations [3][4]. Negotiation Dynamics - The EU's trade commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, indicated that while there is a close agreement on the trade agreement text, substantial differences remain in certain areas [3][4]. - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs is seen as a way to gain leverage in negotiations, although it has shocked EU officials [3][4]. Impact on Trade Relations - The proposed 30% tariff would drastically alter the transatlantic trade relationship, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade dynamics [3][4]. - Experts believe that the EU's acceptance of a 10% tariff as a baseline was already a significant concession, and the 30% threat is unacceptable [4][8]. Composition of the Retaliatory List - The retaliatory list includes over €65 billion worth of industrial goods, with significant items being aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [8]. - Agricultural products affected exceed €6 billion, primarily fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) [8]. Broader Trade Strategy - The EU is considering all possible measures to protect its economy, including potential actions against the U.S. service sector and the use of coercive measures [8][9]. - The EU is also looking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is interested in enhancing cooperation with CPTPP members [9][10].

实际上，美国对所谓的"对等关税"早已信心不足，这种损人不利己的招数要落地执行将会遭遇巨大阻 力，因此生效日期一拖再拖，从最开始的4月9日再给90天缓冲期，在大限将至的7月9日又延长到8月1 日，本来划定最后期限是美国的极限施压，可是一退再退的日子，让全世界看到了美国的色厉内苒，现 在签是立刻输，观望中国的态度和后续行动，拖下去就有可能赢。对中美新一轮会谈，中国始终持乐观 开放态度，有意愿继续交流，保持积极沟通，两国经济体量大，涉及层面广，细节多，距离达成最终协 议尚有一段路走，美国只是着急喊话没有用，必须拿出诚意落到实处，与我们相向而行，这样才能做好 榜样。 美国发出全球加税令，谁都没吓倒，首批14国竟无一低头，财长贝森特急忙喊话中国，再见一面吧。近 日，美国方面陆续向日本、韩国等14个国家发出关税信函，将从8月1日起分别对来自这14个国家的进口 产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。本以为经过90天的缓冲，这些国家能够"认清形势"，没想到竟然都不 准备服软，传统盟友日本和韩国被征税25%，表示要"继续周旋下去"，其他国家最高征税达到40%，泰 国甚至喊出了"战斗到底"的口号。面对如此棘手情况，美国急需寻找到解决 ...

Policy and Macro Analysis - The report highlights the increasing internationalization of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing their importance to domestic economic development as stated by Premier Li Qiang during a meeting with Chinese companies in Brazil [11] - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19][24] - The report notes that the U.S. tariffs vary significantly by country, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff, while other countries like Japan and South Korea face tariffs of 25% [23] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, influenced by the U.S.-China discussions [4][27] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest [27] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.06% during the same period, reflecting overall market optimism [27] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has signaled a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [47] - The DR007 rate remained low, dropping to 1.46% on July 8, indicating a relaxed liquidity environment [47] Commodity Market Analysis - The report notes a decline in non-ferrous metals prices, while crude oil has seen a slight recovery, and precious metals have rebounded [5] - The IEA has reported that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, impacting commodity pricing strategies [5] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index has shown slight strengthening, closing at 97.87, while the Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.17 against the dollar [5] - The report indicates that the continuous increase in foreign exchange reserves and the expansion of gold reserves by the central bank reflect a stable financial strategy [5] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to asset rotation in July, emphasizing the need to prevent overheating in the market [5] - It anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing to address potential uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to Japan, coinciding with the upcoming Japanese Senate elections, which may influence U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, particularly regarding the proposed 25% "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [1][2] - Nomura Securities reports that the Japanese government is coordinating a meeting between Yellen and Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizuki Ryozo, to discuss the recent tariff proposals [1] - The report indicates that while a breakthrough in trade negotiations is unlikely in the immediate future, even a delay in the implementation of tariffs could limit the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The articles note that U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to Japan may also facilitate discussions on tariffs for specific industries, including the automotive sector [1] - There is a historical context suggesting that any potential meeting between Yellen and Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, could significantly impact exchange rate trends, as previous discussions hinted at U.S. efforts to curb the rise of the USD/JPY [2] - Kato has indicated that he does not plan to meet with Yellen next week, as he is likely to attend the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Africa, which may lead the market to anticipate discussions on exchange rates if he cancels his trip [1][2]

Market Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy expectations are heating up in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel, and the prices of some commodities are recovering. The comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition can focus on industries like steel, refining, and new energy vehicles [2]. - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience [2]. - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw material industries. The foundation for domestic economic stabilization still needs to be consolidated [2]. - In late June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In June, China's social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to May [2]. - In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with faster - growing industries including integrated circuits, ships, and automobiles. Imports increased by 1.1%, with fast - growing items such as zero - accessories of automatic data processing equipment and fresh fruits [2]. - Service consumption is the key to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, and the main short - board lies in supply [2]. - Small and medium - sized banks need to balance investment returns and risk - taking in bond investments [2]. - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US has shifted from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" stage to the "easier to loosen, harder to tighten" policy stage [3]. - The "equivalent tariff" 2.0 phase has officially started, with different tariff increases on countries such as Japan, South Korea, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Trump also threatened to impose a "unified tariff" on other countries [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. Household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, and enterprise loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of M2 was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was $1147.7 billion [6]. - The People's Bank of China stated that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation and will maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [6]. - The yield of Japan's 40 - year government bonds rose 16.5 basis points to 3.49%, and the yield of 20 - year government bonds reached the highest level since 2000 [6].

Group 1 - The core issue is the unexpected imposition of a 25% tariff on all goods exported from Japan and South Korea to the US, which has led to a significant deterioration in relations between these countries and the US [2][4][13] - Japan and South Korea are seeking to reduce their military dependence on the US and are taking steps towards greater autonomy in security matters, marking a shift in their long-standing alliance with the US [1][9][11] - The tariffs have caused immediate economic repercussions, with stock markets in Tokyo and Seoul dropping sharply, and major companies like Toyota and Hyundai experiencing significant losses in market value [2][4] Group 2 - Japan's government is considering selling US Treasury bonds as a countermeasure against the tariffs, indicating a potential shift in financial relations [6] - South Korea is accelerating the development of its domestic defense systems and has signed agreements to acquire advanced military technology from Russia, showcasing a move away from reliance on US military support [11][15] - The military cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea is under strain, with joint exercises being scaled back and Japan asserting more control over its defense budget and strategies [13][15][17] Group 3 - The crisis triggered by the tariffs is seen as a turning point in US-Japan-South Korea relations, with both countries taking significant steps to assert their independence from US influence [17] - The potential for an "Asian version of NATO" is being questioned as Japan and South Korea explore new military partnerships and defense strategies outside of the US framework [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - China's export resilience in June exceeded expectations, reflecting a slight improvement in export growth in Q2 compared to Q1, driven by the "expedited shipping" effect ahead of the expiration of the "reciprocal tariff" exemption and a recovery in the global manufacturing cycle [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports were supported by short-term "rush export" demand as the deadline for the "reciprocal tariff" exemption approached on July 9 [1] - The overall export growth rate in Q2 showed a slight strengthening, indicating improved competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [1] Group 2: Import Trends - In June, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in dollar terms increased by 4.5 percentage points from May to 1.1%, primarily driven by improvements in upstream imports and the "de-escalation" of tariffs between the US and China [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the "rush export" phenomenon may partially deplete demand, and the upward adjustment of US tariffs could impact imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall year-on-year export growth rate in Q3 [1] - However, the recent increase in US tariffs on the EU and Mexico may enhance the relative competitiveness of Chinese exports [1]

Group 1 - The EU has chosen to handle the new round of US tariffs with restraint, extending the suspension period for countermeasures until early August, indicating a preference for negotiation over confrontation [1][2] - The US plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on imports from various countries, including Mexico and the EU, starting August 1, which has raised concerns among European leaders about inflation and uncertainty [2][3] - Experts suggest that the EU's hesitation in negotiations stems from its limited leverage due to the intertwined economic and defense interests with the US, making it unlikely for the EU to gain significant benefits from any trade agreement [1][8] Group 2 - The EU is facing pressure from the US to reduce the trade deficit, particularly in sectors like aerospace and automotive, but the EU's ability to make concessions is constrained by strong domestic industries [4][5] - The EU's trade surplus with the US is substantial, estimated at over €190 billion in 2024, but the EU's reliance on the US market complicates its negotiating position [8][9] - The ongoing trade negotiations are influenced by broader geopolitical considerations, with the EU's defense dependency on the US limiting its willingness to adopt a confrontational stance [9][10] Group 3 - The potential for a trade agreement between the US and EU remains, but the likelihood of reaching a deal before the August 1 deadline is uncertain, and any agreement may not significantly enhance trade relations [10][11] - Experts predict that the EU may have to accept higher baseline tariffs as part of any agreement, with estimates suggesting a range of 15% to 20% for the EU [11]