Core Viewpoint - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a rebound due to effective policy measures, although export pressures remain [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of growth [2]. - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5% [2]. - New export orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points, continuing its upward trend for two months [2]. - Special bond issuance reached approximately 21,607 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a 44.7% increase compared to 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2]. Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year, particularly through special bonds and local government financing to support economic growth and counteract tariff impacts [3][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is anticipated to be a critical point for policy adjustments [3][5]. Inflation and Economic Growth - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has recorded negative growth for 32 consecutive months since October 2022 [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in May, with four consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is projected to be around 5.2%, with a target of 5% for the full year [4]. Future Outlook - Economic downward pressure persists, influenced by tariff fluctuations and weak domestic demand [5]. - The government may introduce additional policies to support key sectors and stabilize the economy, including potential monetary easing if external conditions worsen [6].

托育服务概念股开盘大涨。电力板块集体拉升，华银电力（600744）7天6板。 电力板块走强 电力板块走强，华银电力7天6板，拓日新能（002218）涨停，韶能股份（000601）、桂冠电力（600236）、豫能控股（001896）涨超5%。 证券、银行、多元金融等大金融股集体走强，大智慧2连板，越秀资本（000987）涨停，工商银行、邮储银行（601658）再创新高，第一创业 （002797）、永安期货（600927）涨超5%。 7月9日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，沪指高开0.04%，深证成指高开0.04%，创业板指低开0.08%。开盘后快速拉升，沪指站上3500点，再创年内新高； 创业板指翻红。 托育服务概念股大涨 托育服务概念股大涨，华媒控股（000607）竞价涨停，爱婴室（603214）、豆神教育（300010）、和晶科技（300279）、创源股份（300703）、孩子王 （301078）、孚日股份（002083）等跟涨。 港股走弱，截至发稿，恒生指数和恒生科技指数均跌逾1%。 消息面上，国家发改委等七部门联合发布《关于加快推进普惠托育服务体系建设的意见》，其中提出，支持用人单位利用存量土地或设施规划建 ...

国家统计局：6月份，CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨，CPI由降转涨主要受工业消费品价 格有所回升影响。 受环比下降及对比基数变动影响，6月PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项宏观政策加力 实施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。 ...

中国6月PPI同比 -3.6%，前值 -3.3%。 ...

中国6月CPI年率0.1%，预期0.0%，前值-0.1%。CPI月率-0.1%，预期0.0%，前值0.2%。PPI年率-3.6%，预期-3.2%，前值-3.3%。PPI月率-0.4%，前值-0.4%。 https://t.co/9qhcCsup3P ...

Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI is expected to show a slight year-on-year recovery in June, with estimates ranging from 0% to 0.01% year-on-year growth, while month-on-month changes are projected at -0.1% [2][4] - Food prices are experiencing seasonal declines, with fruits down 2.3%, pork down 2.3%, and eggs down 6.4% month-on-month, although vegetable prices have increased by 1.3% due to seasonal factors [2][3] - Non-food prices are anticipated to improve marginally, driven by rising oil prices and a recovery in service consumption [3][4] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI is expected to remain low, with year-on-year estimates ranging from -2.78% to -3.4%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to May [4][5] - Internationally, crude oil prices surged by 9.1% month-on-month, contributing to a rise in the CRB index, while other product price increases remain limited [4][5] - Domestic industrial product prices showed a slight recovery, with the South China Industrial Products Index rising by 0.8% month-on-month in June [4][5]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in investment sentiment[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 3.70%, while retail sales total monthly year-on-year growth is at 6.40%[3] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately 0.5% month-on-month in June, while non-food prices remain stable, leading to an overall CPI decrease of about 0.1%[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to fall by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is considered high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 11, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 4, 2025, is 2.19%, compared to the actual yield of 1.64%[19]

Core Viewpoint - The data from the Ministry of Finance indicates a decline in national tax revenue, reflecting a complex relationship between GDP growth and tax income, with a widening gap expected in the coming years [2][3]. Tax Revenue Trends - In the first five months of 2025, national tax revenue reached 79,156 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to January-April [2]. - The gap between GDP growth and tax revenue is projected to widen, with a difference of -8.4% in 2024 and -8.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to various factors, including macroeconomic conditions and structural changes in industries [3]. PPI Impact - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has a significant influence on tax revenue, with a continuous negative growth affecting nominal GDP and tax bases [4][6]. - In May, PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, impacting the tax revenue from value-added tax and corporate income tax [6][7]. Corporate Income Tax - Corporate income tax revenue for January-May 2025 was 21,826 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a projected annual decline of 0.5% for 2024 [7][8]. - The decline in corporate income tax is primarily due to shrinking corporate profits, influenced by PPI declines and reduced demand [8][10]. Personal Income Tax Recovery - Personal income tax revenue for January-May 2025 reached 6,572 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, driven by economic recovery and improved tax collection capabilities [12][13]. - The growth in personal income tax is supported by rising urban residents' disposable income and the contribution from high-income sectors [12][13].

欧盟统计局7月4日公布数据显示，欧元区5月PPI环比下降0.6%，同比上涨0.3%。 ...

智通财经7月4日电，欧元区5月PPI同比增长0.3%，预期增长0.3%；5月PPI环比下降0.6%，预期下降 0.5%。 ...