Core Viewpoint - The recent statement by Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates a shift in the internal perspective on current monetary policy, suggesting a potential move towards interest rate cuts due to reassessments of economic fundamentals, employment, and inflation [1] Group 1: Reasons for Supporting Rate Cuts - Waller's first reason highlights that new import tariffs may temporarily raise prices, but these are one-time changes and should not warrant a high interest rate response, as inflation expectations remain stable [3] - He emphasizes that the current federal funds rate is significantly above the neutral rate, which is estimated to be around 3%, while the current rate exceeds 5%, indicating a tight monetary policy that is not supported by economic data [3] - Economic growth is projected to be weak, with GDP growth in the first half of the year potentially at only 1%, and unemployment nearing long-term levels at 4.1%, suggesting that maintaining high rates is a lagging response to economic conditions [3] Group 2: Employment Market Concerns - Waller warns against being misled by seemingly stable employment data, noting that many labor market indicators may be revised downwards, and private sector job growth is nearly stagnant [4] - He points out that risks in the employment market are accumulating, advocating for preemptive measures rather than reactive ones when unemployment rises significantly [4] - The statement signals that the current high interest rate policy may be disconnected from the actual macroeconomic situation, with inflation near targets and economic growth insufficient, making continued high rates seem inappropriate [4]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9204, with an opening price of 9110 and a current price of 9213, reflecting a 0.70% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 9244, while the lowest is 9095, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The analysis suggests that silver will benefit more than gold from the anticipated easing of monetary policy, with a recommended trading range for the main silver contract set between 9020 and 10000 per kilogram [4] Group 2 - AMP's chief economist Shane Oliver indicates that Australia's unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since the pandemic, supporting the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia should lower interest rates [3] - The basic forecast from AMP predicts rate cuts in August, November, February, and May of the following year, with the potential for quicker policy easing due to weak employment data [3] - The initial consumer confidence index for July from the University of Michigan is expected to rise to 61.5 from June's final value of 60.7, with inflation expectations also being closely monitored [3]

Core Insights - The market may be underestimating the long-term inflation risks in the U.S., as highlighted by a recent Deutsche Bank report, which indicates that despite stable inflation expectation indicators, deeper analysis reveals that genuine concerns about future inflation are nearing a decade-high level [1][2] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - Key indicators for long-term inflation expectations, such as the 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate and inflation swaps, have recently risen to near twelve-month highs, yet remain within a controlled range [1] - The apparent calm in inflation expectations is misleading, as a "risk premium" indicator, which reflects true inflation concerns after stripping out oil price volatility, has surged to its highest level since 2014 [2][5] Group 2: Oil Price Influence - The correlation between oil prices and long-term inflation expectation indicators is significant, with a reported 75-80% correlation since the mid-2014 oil price crash [2] - After removing the influence of oil prices, the residual inflation expectations have shown a notable increase, approaching the highest levels since late 2016 to early 2017 during the "Trump reflation trade" period [2] Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Current inflation expectations are primarily driven by policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the unpredictable tariff policies of the Trump administration and ongoing challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - If the current administration follows through on its tariff and Federal Reserve policy threats, the existing risk premium could further escalate [5]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market showed significant divergence, with gold prices dropping from $3330 to a low of $3310 due to a stronger dollar and reduced rate cut expectations [1] - Silver, on the other hand, increased by 0.55% but faced resistance at the $38 level [1] - Despite strong economic data and rising U.S. stock markets, global economic weakness continues to provide support for precious metals [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policy is a focal point, with Japan negotiating to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2] - June import prices rose by only 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2] - The increase in import prices suggests a direct impact of tariffs on prices, potentially raising inflation expectations further [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - Current short-term support for gold is at $3337, with other indicators showing a bullish arrangement, although the overall trend appears to be downward [3] - Key support is noted around $3320, with strong support at the $3300 level if prices drop further [3] - Resistance levels to watch include $3358-$3360, with a breakthrough potentially leading to testing $3377 [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver prices are currently consolidating around the $38 level, with a daily close above this level opening the door for upward recovery [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are in control, but a flat RSI slope suggests a lack of catalysts for establishing new positions [4] - For a bullish outlook, silver must break above $38.50, with subsequent targets at $39.00, $39.50, and $40.00 [4]

Group 1 - The impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation has become a focal point in the market, with significant increases in tariffs since the beginning of the year, but the transmission effect on inflation has not been immediate [1] - The delayed transmission of tariffs to inflation is attributed to several factors, including phased implementation and transportation time lags, which typically require months to significantly affect prices [1] - Companies have adopted strategies such as restructuring trade and increasing domestic procurement to mitigate the actual tariff burden, while some industries have stockpiled inventory to temporarily avoid passing on tariff costs to consumers [1] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is merely delayed and not eliminated, with expectations that tariffs will gradually raise U.S. inflation levels starting in the third quarter [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is significantly influenced by concerns over tariffs pushing inflation, leading to a postponement of interest rate cuts [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, along with the potential impacts of immigration policy and the "Big Beautiful" Act, may contribute to increased inflation levels in the fourth quarter [3][7] Group 3 - Market participants express concern that while the magnitude of tariff transmission to inflation may be less than expected, its persistence could exceed expectations, leading to increased volatility in U.S. Treasury yields [5] - Analysts note that the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the time lag in its inflation impact create uncertainty regarding the timing of these effects [5] - The overall uncertainty in monetary policy is expected to rise by 2026 due to the delayed effects of tariffs and other economic factors, potentially slowing the pace of interest rate cuts [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][3][4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall volatility of oil prices has decreased, lacking market drivers, and oil prices are oscillating repeatedly. Most energy and chemical products' markets have unclear unilateral drivers and generally follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rebounded. WTI August contract rose $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel (1.75% increase), Brent September contract rose $1.00 to $69.52 per barrel (1.46% increase), and SC2508 closed at 524.1 yuan per barrel, up 10.5 yuan (2.04% increase). Last week, US crude oil inventories declined, and Iraq's crude oil production decreased by about 200,000 barrels per day. Chevron's production in the largest US oil field is approaching a plateau. Entering the hurricane - prone season, its impact on oil prices needs attention. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX light - sweet crude oil futures decreased by 10.8% [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan per ton. As of the week ending July 14, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventories decreased by 1323000 barrels (5.35%) week - on - week, and Fujairah's fuel oil inventories decreased by 682000 barrels (6.65%) week - on - week. The short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil for range - bound oscillations [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.3% at 3,628 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 26.18%, down 0.82% week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.34%, down 0.14% week - on - week; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 33.72%, down 0.88% week - on - week. The short - term market follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% yesterday; EG2509 closed at 4,372 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. As of July 17, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% (up 1.37% from the previous period), and the PTA load reached 79.7%. Polyester prices are oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro environment and crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 14,665 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 95 yuan per ton to 12,585 yuan per ton. In June 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 703000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The price has returned to an oscillating trend. Iran's plant operating load has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has increased to a relatively high level, with limited subsequent increments. Downstream profits have recovered, and subsequent operations will remain stable [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and there is little room for further decline. The agricultural film market will strengthen seasonally, and the market is expected to gradually trade on demand recovery, with prices expected to fluctuate narrowly [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price in the East China PVC market changed little on Thursday. The overall supply has decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further. The upside rebound space is limited [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of multiple energy and chemical products on July 17 and 16, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. It also explains the calculation methods and data sources [9] 3.3 Market News - Signs of tightness in the crude oil spot market supported oil prices. Last week, US crude oil inventories declined, and Iraq's crude oil production decreased due to drone attacks. Chevron's production in the largest US oil field is approaching a plateau. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers warned that Trump's preference for Fed interest - rate setting may lead to a surge in inflation expectations and higher long - term borrowing costs [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Presents the historical closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: Displays the historical basis trends of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32] - **Inter - term Contract Spreads**: Shows the historical spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [40][42][45] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Illustrates the historical spreads and ratios between different products, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][61][62] - **Production Profits**: Presents the historical production profit trends of products like ethylene - glycol, polypropylene, etc. [66][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [71] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry and many achievements [72] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical abilities, and has won many awards [73] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [74]

Core Viewpoint - The silver price is experiencing short-term pressure due to strong U.S. economic data supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to delay interest rate cuts, but long-term inflationary pressures from tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The latest paper silver price is trading at 8.793 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.27% [1]. - Tariff policy uncertainties are bolstering silver's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term pressure from rising dollar and yields [2]. - The escalating trade tensions may heighten market risk aversion, potentially leading to a rebound in paper silver prices [2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The EU is urged to act swiftly and firmly in U.S. tariff negotiations, with a deadline set for August 1, after which a 30% tariff on EU goods may be imposed [2]. - Japan is in urgent talks with the U.S. to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2]. - Recent data shows that June import prices rose only 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Paper silver opened at 8.719, reached a high of 8.782, and closed at 8.769, forming a long lower shadow hammer pattern [3]. - Resistance levels for paper silver are noted at 8.82-8.83, while support is seen at 8.60-8.70 [3].

周五（7月18日）亚盘时段，国际白银价格窄幅震荡，最新白银价格交投于38.17美元，涨幅0.12%，特 朗普政府的关税政策是当前市场关注的焦点，关税政策的不确定性为白银的避险功能提供了支撑。 国际银价在从周低点37.50美元反弹后稳定在37.85美元上方，但白银行情仍偏向上行。动量方面，相对 强弱指标（RSI）偏向向上，表明多头掌控局面。 若银价攀升至38.00美元上方，则将为进一步上行扫清道路。下一个阻力位将是38.50美元，随后是今年 至今高点39.12美元，接着是39.50美元和40.00美元。 反之，如果白银价格跌破37.00美元，空头可能会将银价推向20日移动均线36.78美元，随后测试36.00美 元。 日本正与美国商务部长就避免25%关税进行紧急谈判，若8月1日前无法达成协议，关税将正式生效。路 透社报道显示，6月进口价格环比仅上涨0.1%，低于预期的0.3%，但来自中国、日本和欧盟的进口价格 涨势强劲，表明外国出口商并未完全吸收关税成本。富国银行高级经济学家Sarah House指出，进口价 格的上涨显示出关税对物价的直接影响，这可能进一步推高通胀预期。 尽管短期内银价受到美元和收益率上涨的压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain; exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. The government may further strengthen pro - growth policies in the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After passing the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump shifted his focus to external pressure to advance tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff events on demand expectations [2]. - Domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new - energy metal sectors, while overseas inflation expectations benefit the energy and non - ferrous sectors. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in May was mixed. Investment weakened, exports were under pressure, and only consumption was resilient. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw - material industries. The growth of industrial added value and new - energy vehicle and industrial robot production was rapid in June, while the growth of social retail sales slowed down. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing declined, and overall fixed - asset investment weakened. Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and automotive have been expected to increase, and some commodity prices have recovered [1]. - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, shifting the US from a stage of "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to a stage of "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten" policies. The Fed may consider a rate cut, and tariff negotiations are accelerating. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a medium - term supply - side easing. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. The short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - The market opened low and closed high, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell and may impose tariffs on Japan and other countries. The eurozone's June inflation data met expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates for some time due to the inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, necessitating a tight monetary policy to control inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1%, indicating a labor market that is "stable and close to full employment" [1]. - Inflation is currently above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target of 2%, facing upward pressure from tariffs [1]. - The upcoming PCE data is expected to show a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the PCE price index for June, with the core PCE index rising by 2.8%, higher than May's levels [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December of the previous year [2]. - Federal Reserve policymakers are reluctant to resume rate cuts unless they are certain that tariffs will only lead to one-time price adjustments rather than sustained inflation [2]. Group 3: Future Implications - There are indications that trade policies will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, with expectations of further price increases later in the year [2]. - The potential vacancy on the Federal Reserve board, due to the expiration of a term in January, may lead to changes in policy direction, especially with the upcoming end of Powell's term in May [2].