"前阵子抢都抢不到的黄金，现在居然降价了！"2026开年，持续火热的黄金市场迎来降温，国际现货黄金在4490美元/盎司附近震荡，国内金价跟着回调， 上海黄金交易所、各大金店和银行的价格都出现松动。对想入手黄金的人来说，这波回调是抄底机会还是陷阱？国内最新金价到底多少？央行购金放缓、美 联储政策摇摆背后，普通人该怎么操作？用大白话一次性说透。 先看最核心的国内最新金价，不同渠道价格差异不小，一张表就能看明白： ? 上海黄金交易所：Au99.99报价约1005元/克，Au(T D)跌破1005元，沪金期货主力合约1007元左右，比上周高点回落了2?%； ? 品牌金店（足金999）：全国平均价1386元/克，比上个月降了50多块。深圳水贝作为黄金集散地，价格低至1245元/克，北京、上海、广州等一线城市在 1283-1290元之间，海南因税费和消费环境，价格仍坚挺在1302元； ? 银行金条：工商银行、建设银行维持在1021元/克左右，中国银行1024元/克，中国黄金工艺金条1020元/克，整体波动不大； 如果是长期投资者（打算持有3年以上），这波回调确实是个机会。世界黄金协会预测，2026年金价可能再涨15?0% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, with gold prices supported by weak manufacturing data and expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [3][11] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are facing supply disruptions amid geopolitical tensions, leading to fluctuating prices, while aluminum prices are influenced by international supply constraints and domestic demand [4][12][13] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in lithium-related stocks [17][18] - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are showing stable price increases, with limited low-priced offerings in the market [19] Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, leading to fluctuations in gold prices, with the market awaiting key economic data [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingbao, and various H-shares [3][11] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen a rise due to supply concerns from Chile and Ecuador, with market optimism for year-end prices [4][12] - Aluminum prices have been volatile, influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic consumption patterns [13][16] - Notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and various H-shares [4][16] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have increased significantly, with futures prices nearing 150,000 yuan/ton, indicating strong demand from the supply chain [17] - Key stocks in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianhua, and others [18] 4. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are on the rise, with limited low-priced offerings in the market, indicating a tightening supply [19] - Stocks to monitor include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others [19] 5. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 8.6%, outperforming the broader market, with tungsten showing the largest gains among sub-sectors [22][30] - Top-performing stocks include Zhizhe New Materials and Dongyangguang, with significant price increases noted [33] 6. Valuation - The current P/E ratio for the non-ferrous metals industry stands at 32.29, with aluminum showing potential for valuation increases due to supply constraints [35]

去年金价涨了64%，银价更夸张，涨了147%，今年开年这几天又涨了15%以上，完全是疯了，白银这边供需特别紧，全球每年用12.4亿盎司，产量才10亿出 头，缺口越来越大，COMEX库存比五年前少了七成，上海的储备也是十年最低，有些地方现货只够卖一个月。 2026年才过去不到十天，金价已经冲到每盎司4475美元了，上周还在4400左右晃悠，我看了眼自己去年买的那点黄金ETF，涨幅都快赶上工资了，这不是我 一个人的感觉，整个市场都在发热。 国际金价在1月10日小幅波动，跌了0.03%到4475.8美元/盎司，看着没涨，其实是高位横盘，国内这边更猛，上海黄金T D报999.5元/克，沪金期货直接破 千，到了1001.8元/克，这价格说实话，普通人看着都晕，我在银行APP上看了一眼，中国黄金的基础金价是993元/克，这还算便宜的。 你要去买首饰就不一样了，我平时不关注这些，今天特意查了下，六福和周大福都是1398元一克，一条二十克的项链就得快三万，老凤祥便宜点，1396元， 也差不了多少。菜百和中国黄金合作款倒是1370元就能拿下，稍微良心点，这些价格里头都包含工费和品牌溢价，和投资用的金条不是一个概念。 黄金T D ...

Core Insights - The international gold price experienced a significant increase in 2025, with an annual rise of nearly 70%, marking the largest annual increase since the 1979 oil crisis [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising global risk aversion and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, as well as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current upward trend in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with a rise of approximately 18% that year [1] - By 2024, international gold prices surpassed $2800 per ounce, with a yearly increase of about 27%, and in 2025, prices broke through $3000 in March and $4000 in October, reaching nearly $4600 by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices also rose significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical risks, such as the US tariff war, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and instability in the Middle East, have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - Central banks globally have accelerated diversification of reserves, significantly increasing gold holdings, which has been a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [2] - From early 2025 to late November, global central banks reported a net purchase of 297 tons of gold, indicating robust demand [2] Group 3: Broader Precious Metals Market - The rise in international gold prices has also led to substantial increases in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% [3] - The strong performance of gold has activated a rotation in the precious metals sector, attracting capital into silver and platinum group metals [3] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, driven by sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, has also supported price increases [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by factors such as the direction of US monetary policy, ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical developments, and the stability of the US dollar credit system [3] - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by multiple interwoven forces and dynamic balance, with persistent structural demand from investors and central banks likely to support prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of the S&P 500 index and gold prices in 2025, with the S&P 500 rising by 17.48% and gold prices soaring by 71% to around $4,514 per ounce, suggesting a shift in investment preferences towards gold as a safe haven asset amid market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to various market disturbances, including trade policy disruptions, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, concerns over technology stock bubbles, and persistent inflation, leading investors to seek gold as a hedge against these risks [5]. - A study from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business indicates that the introduction of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2004 has permanently elevated gold prices, making gold investment as accessible as stock purchases, with North American gold ETFs nearing $200 billion and those outside the U.S. at $175 billion [5][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Comparisons - Recent developments in tokenized gold stablecoins may further drive gold prices higher, as these cryptocurrencies are backed by gold reserves and can be used as collateral for investments in other risk assets [6]. - Despite the current bullish sentiment, the researchers caution that gold may not be a reliable long-term hedge against inflation due to its high price volatility compared to the low volatility of inflation, which could lead to potential losses for investors relying on gold to outpace inflation [7]. - Historical data over the past 40 years shows that gold prices may enter prolonged downtrends, and comparisons with the S&P 500 index over the last 20 years indicate that equities have outperformed gold significantly [9][12].

1月9日，2025年对于贵金属市场而言是极具里程碑意义的一年。EasyMarkets易信观察到，在史无前例 的投资需求推动下，黄金和白银价格双双飙升至历史高点。然而，通过分析全球三大铸币厂的最新销售 数据可以发现，实物贵金属的需求在不同地区呈现出显著的差异化特征。尽管整体市场热度高涨，但北 美等传统市场的实物需求却意外显得有些"后劲不足"。 从区域表现来看，北美投资者虽然在衍生品市场占据主导，但对实物金币的兴趣有所回落。 EasyMarkets易信表示，美国铸币局去年售出的美国鹰扬金币仅为183，500盎司，同比降幅超过55%。 与之形成对比的是，澳大利亚珀斯铸币局的实物黄金销量增长了16%，达到454，514盎司。该铸币局认 为，对2026年初降息的强烈预期、主要经济体的前景不明朗以及地缘局势的动荡，共同支撑了实物金条 作为避险核心资产的地位。 英国市场则展现出了惊人的爆发力。英国皇家铸币局表示，其黄金销量在去年第四季度猛增144%，单 克金价更是在10月首次突破100英镑。EasyMarkets易信认为，实物市场的结构正在发生变化，大批"新 面孔"的加入为市场注入了动力。数据显示，去年该铸币局的客户数量创 ...

Group 1 - Gold demonstrated strong resilience during trading on January 9, rebounding from an intraday low of $4,415 per ounce to close at $4,487, marking a daily increase of $20.80. This performance underscores the core role of safe-haven assets in a complex environment despite increasing global market uncertainties [1][3] - Silver futures faced more significant pressure during the same period, with prices dropping by $1.30, a decline of 1.67%, ultimately settling at $76.89. Silver had previously touched a low of $73.52 before a mild recovery alongside gold [4][5] - The divergence in the performance of gold and silver highlights a subtle shift in investor sentiment and reflects distinctly different fundamental drivers behind the two markets [5] Group 2 - RadexMarkets warns investors of potential volatility due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) annual rebalancing scheduled from January 9 to 15, which aims to accurately reflect the global commodity landscape based on last year's liquidity and production data. Historical trends indicate that rebalancing periods often lead to increased trading activity and short-term price dislocations [2][5] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with recent economic data showing that job openings in November fell to 7.7 million, below the expected 7.8 million, marking a 14-month low. This weak labor demand suggests a potential basis for the Federal Reserve to pursue further monetary easing [2][5] - Despite the U.S. dollar index rising by 1.23% over the past nine trading days, gold has managed to remain close to its historical high set on December 29. The decoupling of gold from its traditional negative correlation with the dollar signals significant market developments, indicating that geopolitical risks and strong central bank demand for gold are currently dominating pricing factors [3][6]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The current trend in the precious metals market reflects a deep tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with spot gold hovering around $4,460 after a dip to $4,423 earlier in the week, marking a decline of over 1.7% [1][3] - This pullback is viewed as a self-correction following high-level market fluctuations, driven by profit-taking, rising geopolitical tensions, and continued accumulation of gold by major global institutions [1][3] - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, has become a significant catalyst for risk-averse sentiment, further supporting gold prices amid concerns over the economic outlook due to weak domestic employment data [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The 4-hour chart for gold shows a complex oscillation pattern, with the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) slowing down, while the 100-period and 200-period SMAs provide strong structural support at $4,370 and $4,267, respectively [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated to around 55, indicating a cautious stance among buyers as the market awaits key fundamental indicators such as the upcoming non-farm payroll data [4] Group 3: Silver Market Insights - The silver market has also garnered attention, with prices rising to approximately $78.50, although the RSI indicates overbought conditions [2][4] - If silver fails to stabilize above the $80.00 mark, it may face downward pressure towards $77.88 or even $75.00, while breaking through the resistance at $81.44 could open up upward potential towards $82.88 and historical highs of $85.87 [2][4] Group 4: Digital Assets Overview - The cryptocurrency market has started relatively smoothly but faces challenges from regulatory scrutiny and volatility in traditional stock markets, particularly as the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill enters a critical review phase [5] - The transparency of policies will significantly influence the speed of capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market, despite a decreasing correlation between the S&P 500 index and digital assets [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy Outlook - The investment strategy for 2026 should focus on balancing defense and growth, with a recommendation to closely monitor the key technical support level of $4,370 for gold, as the market seeks a solid foundation for the next phase of breakout [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the surge in precious metal prices, with gold reaching $4,490 per ounce and silver surpassing $77 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply-demand imbalances [2][3] - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly the escalation of U.S. military actions in Venezuela and ongoing tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, have significantly increased global risk aversion, leading to a surge in gold prices [2] - The global gold supply is projected to grow only 2.1% in 2025, while demand, particularly from central banks and institutional investors, has surged, with a 15% year-on-year increase in central bank purchases [2] Group 2 - Silver's price increase is attributed to a dramatic rise in industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic industry, which now accounts for 55% of global silver demand [3] - The market for silver is characterized by lower depth, with its market value being only one-tenth of gold, leading to significant price volatility, often exceeding 5% in a single day [4] - Speculative investments in silver ETFs have led to high premium rates, indicating strong short-term speculative sentiment in the market [4] Group 3 - For ordinary investors considering gold, the article suggests a dual approach: emotional value for wealth preservation and investment return, with a recommendation for a "dollar-cost averaging" strategy to mitigate volatility [5][6] - The article warns that silver investments carry higher volatility, with price fluctuations being 1.5 times that of gold, and advises caution for inexperienced investors [6] - Long-term investors are encouraged to consider paper silver or silver ETFs to smooth out cost fluctuations, with potential price support from ongoing expansion in the photovoltaic industry [6] Group 4 - Analysts are divided on future gold prices, with bullish forecasts from firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,800 to $4,900 due to currency devaluation and prolonged geopolitical conflicts [7] - Cautious perspectives from firms like TD Securities suggest that strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds could lead to a price correction to the $4,000 range, recommending gradual reduction of positions during rebounds [8] - Neutral views, such as those from Bridgewater Associates, recommend maintaining a 5%-10% allocation of gold in financial asset portfolios as a stabilizer [9] Group 5 - The article emphasizes that gold should be viewed as a long-term hedge against inflation and risk diversification rather than a short-term profit tool, advising investors to avoid high leverage and to invest only spare funds [10]

回望刚刚过去的2025年，如果要问什么东西涨价的最疯狂，相信所有人都会告诉你答案，这就是黄金，有媒体统计黄金去年一年创了50多次历史新高，统计 来看更是46年最大的涨幅，如此夸张的涨价，让人不禁想问今年黄金还会接着涨吗？ 一、金价一年创50多次历史新高 据央视财经的报道，2025年，大宗商品市场走势明显分化：贵金属领跑，能源板块承压。以黄金为例，金价创下了50多个历史新高，跑赢了美国的主要股指 和美元指数。背后的推动因素包括各国央行的购买、美联储降息的大环境、货币贬值交易的重燃、以及ETF资金的涌入等等。不容忽视的还有白银，2025年 COMEX白银期货的涨幅是黄金的两倍还多。而大宗商品板块，原油价格持续疲软。WTI和布伦特原油期货下挫的幅度均逼近20%。 据格隆汇的报道，2025年最后一个交易日金价下跌，但全年计，金价升64%，创1979年以来46年最大升幅。金价上升主要是美联储减息、地缘政治风险升 温、各国央行增持，以及资金持续流入黄金ETF交易所买卖基金等推动向上。 金融畅销书《货币战争》作者里卡斯(James Rickards)近期在媒体访问中预期，金价2026年底前有望冲上一万美元，白银亦可能上望2 ...