Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the methanol industry, suggesting a volatile market environment with mixed signals from supply and demand dynamics [4]. Core Insights - The core logic of the report highlights increased maintenance of production facilities, a rise in port deliveries, and a growing willingness to replenish stocks among downstream buyers [4][2]. - The report notes that while coal prices are under pressure, the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward momentum for prices but also constrained downside potential [1]. - Methanol production capacity utilization is expected to rise in the short term, but planned maintenance and production cuts may lead to a decrease in output in the future [1]. Market Dynamics - Futures market sentiment is positive, leading to smooth transactions in the afternoon with some companies halting sales to support prices, resulting in a general increase in spot prices [1]. - The total futures holdings decreased by 2,007 contracts, indicating a slight reduction in market activity [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The report discusses the impact of maintenance on production facilities, with several key plants undergoing repairs, which may affect overall industry output [1]. - Port inventories have increased by 24,500 tons to 561,900 tons, but the pace of inventory accumulation aligns with expectations, suggesting a potential recovery in market demand [1]. Price Movements - The report provides specific price movements, with the closing price for methanol futures on May 12, 2025, at 2,270 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.93% increase from the previous trading day [5]. - Regional price differences are noted, with Jiangsu's price at 2,422 CNY/ton, a 1.02% increase, while prices in other regions like Inner Mongolia and Henan remained stable [9]. Industry Chain Profits - The report details production profits for various production methods, with Northwest coal-based production showing a profit of 597 CNY/ton, while MTO processes remain in significant losses [13]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid are experiencing varying profit margins, with acetic acid showing a profit of 242.12 CNY/ton [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weak and volatile [1] - Alumina: Consolidating at low levels [1] 2. Core View The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum and alumina, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads in the futures market, as well as inventory, production costs, and corporate profitability in the spot market. It also provides the latest market news and trend strength indicators [1][3]. 3. Summary by Catalog Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 19,910 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 186,779 lots, an increase of 71,128 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was $2,470/ton, up $52/ton. The LME注销仓单占比 was 37.69%, down 0.31% [1]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,843 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 859,878 lots, a decrease of 110,097 lots. The position was 272,614 lots, a decrease of 1,213 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 608,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons. The aluminum spot import profit and loss was -1,251.34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.72 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina Spot**: On May 12, 2,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shandong at a factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton. Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum factory tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina this week, with a winning bid price of about 3,230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [1][3]. Market News - On May 12, Shandong traded 2,000 tons of spot alumina at a factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton [1]. - Xinjiang's electrolytic aluminum factory tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina this week, with a winning bid price of about 3,230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from last week [3]. Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 0 - Alumina trend strength: 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and the palm oil market is affected by the entry into the production - increasing season, with a weakening fundamental situation compared to other oils. The export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure, and the domestic supply of soybeans and soybean meal in the second quarter is expected to be sufficient, which will continue to put pressure on the price. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the soybean oil main contract closed at 7786, with a price increase of 26 and a percentage increase of 0.34%. [2] - **Spread and Ratio - Spread**: The current and previous values of spreads and ratio - spreads for various futures are given, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil being 54 currently and 62 previously. [2] 3.2 International Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures like BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. are provided. For instance, BMD palm oil closed at 3795 ringgit/ton, with a price decrease of 94 and a percentage decrease of - 2.42%. [2] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: The current spot prices, percentage changes, and spot basis of domestic products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, etc. are shown. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8180, with a percentage increase of 0.12% and a spot basis of 394. [2] - **Spot Spread**: The current and previous values of spot spreads between different products are presented, like the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 480 currently and - 550 previously. [2] 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current and previous values of import and crushing profits for products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. are given. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 769, and the previous value was - 838. [2] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for futures such as soybean oil, palm oil, etc. are provided. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 5,355, and the previous value was also 5,355. [2] 3.6 Industry Information and Comment - **Industry Information**: Malaysian palm oil export volume from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, and a US private exporter reported a sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans to Pakistan. [3] - **Protein Meal Comment**: The night - session soybean meal was weak. Before the substantial adjustment of tariffs, the export situation of US soybeans is still under pressure. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the second quarter, which will put pressure on prices. [3] - **Oil Comment**: The night - session soybean and palm oils were weakly volatile, while rapeseed oil was strongly volatile. The domestic short - term supply of soy - based oils is tight, but the supply of imported soybeans in the second quarter is sufficient. The fundamental situation of palm oil is weaker than that of other oils. [3]

2025年05月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，正套离场 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：正套离场，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡有支撑 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油区间震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：偏强运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：关税忧虑缓解内盘估值承压 | 24 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，短期仍有回弹趋势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘高低硫价差暂时小幅回撤 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：中美关税缓和，近月短期偏强；10-12反套轻仓持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡市， ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 锰硅：矿端报价扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 硅铁：电费成本扰动，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 总体来看，锰硅近期供需格局边际收紧，市价较低，现货成交较弱，期货仓单提货明显；硅铁成本 重心下移，后续应继续关注合金厂的生产节奏变动和钢厂生产节奏的博弈，跟踪需求端高炉铁水产量的 节奏变动对双硅的需求支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,482 元/吨，周环比变化-108 元/吨，成交 440,882 手，持仓 82,029 手，持仓环比变化-39,724 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡，收于 5,758 元/吨，周环比变化 6 元/吨，成交 21326 手，持仓 42605 手，持仓环比变化-14,562 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 10 ...

大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2505合约4154.00元/吨，较前日变化-82.00元/吨，幅度-1.94%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-34，较前日变化+82，幅度32.14%。 大豆用于压榨需求支撑减弱，价格震荡偏弱 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期价互有涨跌，因为中美贸易关系依然令人担忧，美国春播 工作进展顺利，截至收盘，大豆期货下跌4.25美分到上涨2.75美分不等，其中5月期约下跌4.25美分，报收1030.50 美分/蒲式耳;7月期约下跌2美分，报收1039.25美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨2.75美分，报收1022美分/蒲式耳。4月8日， 黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.06元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.05元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨 日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14元/斤，较昨日平； ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures may rebound to 3900 - 4000 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures may stop falling and rebound around 7800 yuan. US soybean oil demand may be poor, and domestic soybean arrivals will increase, making factory soybean oil supply shift from tight to loose, with a long - term bearish outlook [1]. Meal - US soybeans are in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation currently. Brazilian supply pressure continues, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. Domestic supply is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [2]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of second - round fattening and slaughter [5][6]. Corn - Market supply is tight, and spot prices are strong. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and port inventories need to be digested. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, they may be under pressure [8]. Sugar - Supply concerns are alleviated. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern after the festival [12]. Cotton - In the short - term, macro factors dominate the market, and there may be large fluctuations. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and domestic cotton prices may show a shock trend [13]. Eggs - In May, demand may support egg prices to remain high and stable. In June, the contradiction of supply exceeding demand may peak, dragging down egg prices. 06 and 07 contracts' previous high - position short orders can be closed at low prices [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot and futures prices are stable, palm oil spot and futures prices decline slightly, and rapeseed oil spot and futures prices rise slightly. There are also changes in various spreads [1]. - **Inventory**: Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories change, and palm oil inventory remains the same [1]. Meal - **Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices have minor changes, and soybean prices also show different trends. There are changes in various spreads and oil - meal ratios [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans change to different extents [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline slightly, and the position of the main contract increases [5]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or have minor changes, and various spot indicators also show different trends [5]. Corn - **Corn**: Futures prices decline slightly, spot prices are stable, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. - **Corn Starch**: Futures prices decline, spot prices rise, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, and ICE raw sugar prices rise. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [12]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions decline, and import sugar prices also change. There are changes in production, sales, and inventories [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts are stable or have minor changes, and ICE US cotton prices decline. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [13]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions have minor changes, and various indicators such as spreads and import prices change [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: Futures prices of different contracts have minor changes, and spot prices in different regions decline slightly. There are changes in basis, spreads, and other prices [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Prices of egg - laying chicken seedlings, culled chickens, and other related indicators change [15].

2025 年 05 月 08 日 铝：价格承压 氧化铝：继续磨底 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19465 | -320 | -565 | -1060 | -950 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 19340 | ー | । | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2381 | -47 | -57 | -124 | -271 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 266742 | 128036 | 105362 | 131711 | 162672 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 194811 | 11053 | -473 | 1037 | -6315 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 12659 | 3079 | 2620 | -3457 | -11861 | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 38. 50% | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 7, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5598, down 0.39%. The ferro - silicon 2506 contract closed at 5430, up 0.04%. The iron alloy production profit is negative, and the spot production enthusiasm is low. For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream hot - metal production may have peaked. For ferro - silicon, the steel demand expectation is generally weak. Manganese - silicon should be treated as oscillating weakly, and ferro - silicon should be treated as oscillating. Investors should control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese - silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,598 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the position was 660,341 hands, up 5,988 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 27,105 hands, unchanged; the 9 - 5 contract spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 123,166, down 1,405; the basis of the main contract was 12 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. - **Ferro - silicon (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5,430 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the position was 461,065 hands, up 21,684 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 10,455 hands, unchanged; the 9 - 5 contract spread was 26 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 17,881, up 19; the basis of the main contract was 120 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese - silicon**: The price of Inner Mongolia FeMn68Si18 was 5,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guizhou's was 5,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Yunnan's was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5,602.42 yuan/ton, down 94.58 yuan [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The price of Inner Mongolia FeSi75 - B was 5,510 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai's was 5,520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia's was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese - silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the manganese ore port inventory was 405.50 million tons, up 32.80 million tons [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese - silicon**: The enterprise start - up rate was 40.74%, down 0.85 percentage points; the supply was 182,805 tons, down 3,255 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 181,800 tons, up 24,200 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 15.44 days, down 1.17 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 128,211 tons, up 1,462 tons [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The enterprise start - up rate was 30.75%, down 0.16 percentage points; the supply was 99,000 tons, up 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 83,600 tons, down 11,200 tons; the national steel mill inventory was 15.44 days, down 0.82 days; the demand of the five major steel types was 20,560.40 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 84.35%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 92.03%, up 0.41 percentage points; the monthly crude steel output was 92.8414 million tons, up 16.8722 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - When China's steel exports are at the level of 60 - 70 million tons, there are few trade frictions, indicating that the world steel market needs Chinese steel. - In April, the Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) was 50.7, 1.2 percentage points lower than in March, reaching the lowest in seven months in the expansion range. - In Q1 2025, China's steel exports continued the "one increase and three decreases" trend of last year, and imports continued the pattern of decreasing volume and increasing price. - South Korea imposed a five - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel coils from Vietnam [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market - **Manganese - silicon**: The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 110 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 420 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement was cautious, and the tender quantity decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Ferro - silicon**: The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 70 yuan/ton [2]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - For both manganese - silicon and ferro - silicon, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages [2].

，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9335 | 119 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2565 | 17 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 139 302424 | -10 菜粕月间价差(9-1) ...