Core Insights - ASML reported strong Q2 2025 results with revenue of €7.7 billion, net profit of €2.3 billion, and a gross margin of 53.7% [1] - The company anticipates continued growth driven by artificial intelligence in the logic and memory chip markets, with EUV business expected to grow by approximately 30% year-over-year [2] - For the full year 2025, ASML expects revenue growth of about 15% and a gross margin of around 52% [3] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was €7.7 billion, with service sales contributing €2.1 billion [1] - New orders totaled €5.5 billion, including €2.3 billion in EUV orders [1] - Gross margin for Q2 was 53.7%, exceeding expectations due to service upgrades and lower-than-expected tariff impacts [1] Market Outlook - ASML forecasts Q3 2025 revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 52% [2] - The company expects the Chinese market to account for over 25% of revenue, aligning with order backlog [2] - For 2025, the service business is projected to grow by about 20% [2] Long-term Projections - ASML maintains a long-term revenue target of €44 billion to €60 billion by 2030, with gross margins expected to reach 56% to 60% [4] - The company acknowledges increasing uncertainties from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including tariffs [4]

德国央行：德国二季度经济恐停滞不前 金十数据7月16日讯，德国央行表示，在今年年初出人意料的强劲扩张之后，德国经济可能在第二季度 未能实现增长。德国央行在周三发布的月度报告中指出，"德国经济在第二季度可能陷入停滞"，因为前 期透支的增长效应正在消退。报告还表示，经济的基本趋势仍然"总体偏弱"。与此同时，它警告称，美 国总统特朗普最近威胁要征收30%的关税，这将构成"相当大的经济下行风险"。德国央行还在报告中指 出，近期情绪指标的改善，部分可能源于市场对更具扩张性的财政政策抱有希望。然而，这种政策对经 济表现的提振预计将滞后显现。同时它补充道，短期内，德国出口行业还将面临来自美国关税政策的额 外阻力。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The crude oil market rating for this week is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly. In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened. The rating is adjusted to neutral oscillation [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow suit. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack is expected to continue its downward trend, while LU's unilateral movement follows crude oil [21] - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries increased slightly. Supply increase resilience needs further observation. Demand is weak but has recovery expectations. The price follows crude oil, but the upward drive is limited before demand improves [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. Overseas prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the market is oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The impact of tariffs is emerging. The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy. Suggestions for trading include holding short positions or using option strategies [3] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. There is a negative feedback in the spot market during the off - season. There is short - term callback pressure [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, but the market is in an oversupply state. The upside is limited, and the futures are unlikely to fall sharply [5] - **Zinc**: Inventory is rising, indicating a supply - surplus and demand - weak situation. The market continues the idea of shorting on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The external market's inventory accumulation drags down the price. The domestic market is relatively resistant to decline, but there is a risk of following the external market down [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fell sharply. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season. There is still room for a rebound in Shanghai nickel, waiting for a better short - selling position [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin opened lower and oscillated. The inventory in London is falling. The domestic output is expected to improve marginally. The market continues the short - allocation direction [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is oscillating and rebounding. The inventory is rising. The upside is limited, and short positions can be gradually arranged [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices are rising. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be oscillating strongly [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are rebounding. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term trend follows steel products, and the upward space is limited [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices follow steel products and may continue to rise in the short term [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. They follow the trend of rebar, with limited upward momentum [18][19] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices continued to fall. Demand is weak, and the market is affected by the "anti - involution" concept. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [14] - **Glass**: The market is affected by the real - estate situation. The short - term follows the macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases require supply contraction [33] Chemicals - **Urea**: Supply is sufficient, and agricultural demand is weakening. Pay attention to export - quota policies [24] - **Methanol**: The main contract fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is rising, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The cost support is weakening. There is a seasonal improvement expectation in Q3, and a negative monthly - spread is expected in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end is oscillating, and the supply is sufficient while demand is weak [27] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The futures are oscillating weakly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are weakening, and caustic - soda prices are oscillating strongly [29] - **PX & PTA**: Prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the repair of PTA's processing margin [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling. The short - term is bullish, with the risk of falling oil prices [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber is bullish, while bottle - chip's processing - margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is neutral - bearish. The domestic inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The market is oscillating [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in an adjustment state. The long - term idea is to go long on dips [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market is in a consolidation phase. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Pay attention to weather and policies in the short term [39] - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic market is oscillating [40] - **Live Pig**: The supply is abundant in the medium term, and the price has downward pressure [41] - **Egg**: The spot price is rebounding seasonally. The futures' upside is limited, and the long - term cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices are rising due to weather concerns. The domestic market is affected by demand. The inventory is expected to be tight [43] - **Sugar**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [44] - **Apple**: The new - season apple price is increasing. The market is bearish on the production estimate [45] - **Timber**: The supply has some positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [46] - **Pulp**: The price is rising slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe or trade short - term [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market shows a divergence. The short - term risk preference is oscillating slightly strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Prices are rising. The bond market should pay attention to the risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: Spot prices are stable. The 08 contract will converge with the spot, while the 10 - contract's rise is due to multiple factors. It is not recommended to chase the rise [20]

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[8] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[8] Core Goods and Services - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable increases in clothing and furniture prices, which rose by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to May[12] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with declines of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on CPI[12] - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, saw a rebound, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points, although still in negative growth territory[14] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[17] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[17] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated due to ongoing inflationary pressures[18]

Group 1 - The US Treasury yields are fluctuating near a one-month high, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.48% and the 30-year yield above 5% following a recent increase of 5 basis points [1] - The recent inflation data indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are gradually impacting prices, leading to a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now below 50% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is crucial for assessing the inflationary effects of tariffs, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall PPI and a 0.2% increase in core PPI, both higher than the previous month's growth [4] Group 2 - The market is reassessing the impact of tariff policies, with analysts highlighting the need to monitor the PPI data for further evidence of tariffs driving inflation [4] - Despite better-than-expected consumer data, some product prices are showing signs of tariff transmission, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming Beige Book will provide insights into the current economic landscape, focusing on overall economic growth, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages [4]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, in line with expectations, but the annual and monthly rates of core CPI were slightly lower than expected. After the data release, precious metals declined. The market believes the data is insufficient to change the Fed's wait - and - see stance. With room for negotiation on US tariff policies before the deadline, risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the US PPI data tonight [1] Industry - related Summaries Tariff - US Treasury Secretary signaled that there's no need to worry about the deadline for suspending additional tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation "is in good shape" [2] - EU Commission Vice - President will talk with the US Trade Representative [2] - Trump reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier - free treatment. If goods are transshipped from Indonesia, tariffs will be combined with those of the country of origin [2] - US Commerce Secretary said the US doesn't levy tariffs on raw steel but only on finished steel [2] - Indian central bank governor is hopeful for a good trade agreement [2] Inflation - The US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations; the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, falling short of the expected 3% but up slightly from last month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market - expected 0.3% [2] - Interest rate futures show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month is very small, but the possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September is high [2] - The "Fed whisperer" said the CPI report won't change the Fed's policy direction [2] - Trump said consumer prices are low and the Fed should immediately cut the federal funds rate by 3 percentage points [2] - Fed's Collins expects the core inflation rate to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should be actively patient [2]

Group 1 - Silver prices rebounded on July 16, reaching a high of $38.04 per ounce, driven by heightened market concerns over U.S. President Trump's escalating tariff policies and increased risk aversion [1] - The U.S. June CPI data showed a 0.3% month-on-month increase, the largest in five months, with core CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year, raising concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher and potentially extending the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. PPI data, which will serve as a leading indicator for inflation trends and directly impact the future movement of gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing an upward trend, with the day's highest price at $38.04, and the market is looking at resistance levels between $39.22 and $39.32, while support levels are between $36.52 and $36.62 [3]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock price plummeted following the release of its Q2 2025 earnings report, despite exceeding revenue and profit expectations, due to a cautious outlook for future growth and narrowed annual guidance [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - Q2 net sales reached €7.7 billion (approximately $8.95 billion), surpassing the expected €7.52 billion [3]. - Q2 net profit was €2.29 billion, exceeding the forecast of €2.04 billion [3]. - The actual net new orders for Q2 were €5.5 billion, significantly higher than the anticipated €4.19 billion [3]. Future Guidance - For Q3, ASML expects revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, below the market expectation of €8.3 billion [7]. - The company has narrowed its full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 to approximately €32.5 billion, down from a previous range of €30 billion to €35 billion [7]. - ASML expressed uncertainty about achieving growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [8]. Market Context - ASML is a critical player in the semiconductor supply chain, producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment essential for advanced chip manufacturing [9]. - The demand for AI-related chips is a significant growth driver for ASML, with the company recently delivering a next-generation High NA EUV machine [9]. Regulatory Environment - The company faces uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies affecting the shipment of new equipment and components, which could impact profit margins [11]. - Current semiconductor products are exempt from tariffs in the U.S., but future implications for chip manufacturing equipment remain uncertain [11]. - The potential lifting of export restrictions on AI processors could positively influence chip demand [11].

7月16日周三，黄金市场延续了周二的疲软态势，现货金回落至每盎司3327美元附近，较前一交易日下 跌0.5%，期金也录得0.7%的跌幅。表面上看，美国6月CPI数据符合市场预期，并未带来显著超预期的 通胀惊喜，按理说应对金价构成支撑。然而，黄金走势的转弱，背后隐藏着更复杂的逻辑组合，尤其与 市场对关税政策、美联储路径以及避险需求之间微妙关系的重构密切相关。 尽管CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比仍维持在2.7%的水平，通胀并未"失控"，但这已经是近半年以来最强的一 次月度增长，市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧开始升温。同时，特朗普最新在社交平台上发文，再次强调希 望美联储降息，称"消费者物价很低，应该降息"，这无疑向市场施加了一种政策预期的暗示。然而，目 前的物价路径并不完全支持这种激进降息的诉求，因此市场定价并未明确转向。 市场对于特朗普可能进一步加征关税的预期正在升温。他提出对来自欧盟和墨西哥的商品征收高达30% 的关税，给投资者传递出一个矛盾信号：一方面关税可能推动输入型通胀，增加物价压力；另一方面， 美联储如果对此作出反应而非预判，则可能迟滞降息进程。因此，黄金作为对冲政策不确定性的工具， 在预期分歧中一时失去了明 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration's tariff policy has led to a significant increase in inflation in the U.S., with the Consumer Price Index rising by 2.7% year-on-year in June, up from 2.4% in May, marking the largest increase since February [1] - Prices for sensitive goods such as furniture, toys, and clothing have seen notable increases in June, indicating the direct impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1] - The data suggests that as some companies begin to pass on tariff costs to consumers, the public is starting to feel the effects of these tariffs [1] Group 2 - The broad nature of the U.S. tariff policy and its inconsistent implementation have disrupted markets, leading to increased uncertainty among businesses and consumers regarding the extent of future price increases [2] - Economists generally agree that tariffs will raise prices and harm economic growth, although there is disagreement on the magnitude of the impact and the timing of price increases [2]