农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 多移仓至 7 月和 9 月合约。现货市场方面，受期货上涨带动现货延续偏强表现。 | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米减仓上行，期价收十字星。5 月合约临近交割月，多空主动减仓，主 | | | | 目前，东北玉米价格仍延续上涨的模式，普遍涨幅在 10-20 元/吨，价格持续上 | | | | 涨产区贸易商出货积极性一般。部分贸易商参与中储粮拍卖，拍卖的玉米价格高 | | | | 于现货价格。华北地区玉米价格继续偏强运行。期现货价格联动上涨，市场短期 | | | | 看涨热情较高，早间深加工企业门前到货车辆依然维持低位，企业玉米收购价格 | | | | 继续上涨，华北大部分企业玉米收购价格上调 10-20 元/吨。销区市场玉米价格 | | | | 上调，部分港口报价上调。期货表现持续偏强，产区贸易商看涨心态高涨，港口 | | | | 跟随积极上调报价，但下游提货速度一般，远期订单询价较多，签单数量有限。 | | | | 技术上，玉米 7 月合约突破前高，价格突破密集成交区 ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（4月30日） 6. 俄铝副总裁叶莲娜·别兹杰涅日内赫在接受俄媒《生意人报》采访时表示，受制于高企的氧化铝价格 和外部制裁压力，俄铝自2024年底起已启动产能优化措施，整体铝产量削减了10%。此次减产在西伯利 亚等地的各工厂均匀进行，但并未关闭任何工厂或完全停产。 7. 远兴能源回复称，公司根据各企业纯碱产品的产量、库存及市场情况有序安排接单，产品价格随行就 市。随着阿拉善天然碱项目一期的投产，产能逐步释放，公司主营产品纯碱、小苏打的市场份额稳中有 升。 1. 中钢协数据显示，按照焦煤长协煤钢联动方案数据测算，2025年4月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值环比3月 下降25元/吨，跌幅1.89%。 2. Mysteel卫星数据显示，2024年4月21日-4月27日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量 1258.8万吨，环比上升40.0万吨，库存小幅累库，目前库存绝对量略高于年初以来的平均水平。 3. 农业农村部办公厅印发《养殖业节粮行动实施方案》的通知。其中提到，力争到2030年，全国养殖业 消耗的饲料中粮食用量占比降至60%左右，其中，豆粕用量占比降至10%左右。持续调整优 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].

【TrendForce】 3月20日，TrendForce集邦咨询公布最新面板价格。具体来看：预期需求走弱，电视面板价格涨势收敛；显示器面板有望全面涨 价，且涨幅稍扩大；笔电面板价格仍持平。 电视面板 TrendForce集邦咨询研究副总范博毓表示，3月份电视面板需求目前虽然仍稳定，但以北美终端市场来看，在超级杯销售结束后，2月份起需求就开 始走弱，加上关税的不确定性高，有可能导致消费趋向保守。 国内虽有以旧换新政策的带动，但政策带动的需求已逐渐出现钝化的效应，加上自4Q24至1Q25，品牌客户持续维持高采购动能，导致目前品牌的 终端库存水位都有偏高的趋势，对于第二季面板需求可能下滑的杂音已经出现。 面板厂当然已经意识到这样的风险，因此持续讨论需要执行产能调控的可能时间点与幅度，以希望维持住整体供需状态稳定。 不过就目前观察，在预期需求走弱的态势下，电视面板价格的涨势有开始收敛的迹象。以3月份的电视面板价格走势来看，32吋预估上涨0.5美元。 43吋预估上涨1美元。50吋持平，55吋，65吋与75吋皆上涨1美元。 显示器面板 整体而言，以3月份的显示器面板价格走势来看，Open Cell面板预估上涨0.2~0 ...