Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 69.85 billion RMB in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion RMB, up 16.9% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations due to operational model transformation and network optimization [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from stable profits from express delivery, diversified business growth, and international expansion, leading to a revaluation from an express delivery company to a comprehensive logistics service provider [1][3] Revenue and Volume Growth - The average daily volume of parcels increased by 21.0% year-on-year to 3.56 billion parcels, with total parcel volume growing by 19.7% to 3.54 billion parcels [2] - The average price per parcel decreased by approximately 11.0% year-on-year to 14.55 RMB, continuing the trend of "price for volume" established over the past 24 years [2] Business Segments and Cost Optimization - Revenue from express logistics grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international business revenue increased by 9.9% year-on-year, driven by competitive product offerings and enhanced international network capabilities [2] - The company achieved a gross margin of 13.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 8.0% to 9.29 billion RMB [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 11.8 billion RMB, 14.2 billion RMB, and 16.0 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding EBITDA of 34.9 billion RMB, 38.5 billion RMB, and 41.3 billion RMB [3] - The valuation for A-shares is set at 8.0x EV/EBITDA for 2025, above the average of 4.8x for comparable companies, while H-shares are valued at 7.7x EV/EBITDA, also above the average of 5.2x [3]

北京时间 3 月 19 日下午，安踏（2020.HK）发布了 2024 年全年业绩。由于安踏在今年一月份和去年十月份已经公布过 2024Q3、Q4 的运营表现，因此，市场对于 总收入的预期把握相对较准， 但引发市场担忧的核心点还是在于安踏盈利能力的下降。 具体要点如下： 1.整体业绩：营收小超预期，盈利能力不及预期 ：24H2 公司实现营收 370.9 亿元，同比增长达到 13.4%，与前期公布的零售流水相比，营收端小超市场预期 （356.5 亿元）。毛利率和预期基本一致，但在激烈的市场竞争下，由于公司加大了市场推广力度叠加对现有店铺的升级调改，费用支出高增使得核心经营利润不 及预期。 2、FILA 偏弱，安踏稳健，其他品牌高增： 分品牌看，安踏主品牌实现营收 174.5 亿， 小超 市场预期（170.8 亿）。 海豚君认为主要系安踏主品牌下半年增加了 高性 价比产品的推出，并增加了在高性价比店型——超级安踏中的陈列 。FILA 和市场预期基本一致，中个位数的增长，相较于前两年双位数以上的增长明显回 落。 让海豚君眼前一亮的是其他品牌在高基数下仍然实现了 64% 的高速增长，全年营收超过 100 亿，妥妥成了 ...

百令系列中选全国中成药集采，有望实现以价换量公司核心产品百令系列主要包括百令片、百令胶 囊等，百令片为成熟品种，百令胶囊于2023 年12 月29 日获得国家药监局颁发的《药品注册证书》，成 为全国首个获批的同名同方药，于2024 年12 月正式销售。公司百令片中标2024 年京津冀"3+N"联盟药 品集采，有助于增加在"3+N"联盟地区（包括天津、四川、湖北等21 个联盟省份）的竞争力，同时，百 令片和百令胶囊中选2024 年全国中成药集采，有望改善百令片2021 年未中选湖北联盟集采的不利影 响。短期看，百令片2024 年销量增长15.25%，价格下降3%致收入减少7.23%，但长期看，集采中选有 望实现以价换量，带来百令系列的恢复性增长。 佐力药业(300181)：业绩保持稳健增长 以价换量效 果显著 事件： 公司发布2024 年度业绩快报及2025 年一季度业绩预告。2024 年实现营收25.80 亿元，同比增长 32.81%；归母净利润5.05 亿元，同比增长31.79%；扣非归母净利润5.03 亿元，同比增长34.75%；EPS 为0.72 元/股。2025 年一季度实现归母净利润1.78-1.8 ...