Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy is expected to boost marginal improvements in passenger car demand in Q1 2026, with subsidies remaining at the same cap as in 2025 but shifting from fixed amounts to percentage-based subsidies [8][11] - The report highlights the anticipated release of Tesla's Optimus V3 in Q1 2026, which is expected to increase interest in the robotics sector, with numerous domestic companies preparing for IPOs [12] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for companies involved in overseas expansion, reflecting strong demand for overseas orders and indicating that international business will become a significant growth point for automotive parts companies [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Companies in the automotive supply chain that are expected to benefit include Tesla, Figure, Zhiyuan, and Yushu, with a focus on humanoid robotics, liquid cooling, and autonomous driving technology [3][14] - Specific liquid cooling related stocks include Yingweike, Yinlun, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Feilong, and Chuanhuan Technology [3][14] - Other related stocks include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, and several others, with a total of over 30 companies in the robotics supply chain preparing for IPOs [3][14][15] Market Trends - The report notes a decline in weekly passenger car sales, with a 13% year-on-year drop in wholesale sales during the week of December 22-28, 2025 [16] - The automotive parts sector outperformed the broader market, with a 3.63% increase, while the overall automotive industry saw mixed results [35][36] Company Announcements - Geely Auto reported a December 2025 sales figure of 236,800 units, a 13% increase year-on-year, and set a 2026 sales target of 3.45 million units [47] - NIO delivered 48,100 vehicles in December 2025, marking a 54.6% year-on-year increase, with a total annual delivery of 326,000 units [49] - XPeng delivered 37,500 vehicles in December 2025, achieving a total of 429,400 units for the year, a 126% increase [48]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 aims to boost consumer spending and enhance domestic demand, with a focus on optimizing the use of funds and improving policy effectiveness [1][2][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The government plans to continue supporting consumer spending through the "old-for-new" policy, which has shown significant results, with sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people in 2025 [1][2]. - The 2026 fiscal policy will prioritize the optimization of the "old-for-new" program, focusing on key consumer goods such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters [2][3]. - The central government has allocated 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support the "old-for-new" policy, ensuring funds are available for peak consumption periods like New Year and Spring Festival [4]. Group 2: Financial Coordination - The emphasis on fiscal and financial policy coordination is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of consumer support measures, with a focus on lowering credit costs and increasing policy coverage [4][5]. - The government aims to improve the efficiency of fund allocation and usage, ensuring that financial resources are directed towards high-impact consumer goods to maximize the benefits of fiscal spending [2][4]. - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to create a synergistic effect, enhancing overall market vitality and improving the quality of life for consumers [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy-duty truck sector [7]. Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle replacement policy will support the replacement of old trucks with low-emission vehicles, prioritizing electric trucks, while maintaining the subsidy levels from 2025 [2][5]. - The heavy-duty truck sector is expected to benefit from continued domestic demand support and growth in exports, with a projected total sales volume of 1.06 million trucks in 2026, including 700,000 units from domestic demand [11]. - The report highlights the low valuation and high dividend yield of the heavy-duty truck sector, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile for investors, with specific recommendations for Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [11]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy will continue to support the replacement of old trucks, with subsidies for scrapping old vehicles ranging from 12,000 to 45,000 yuan per vehicle, and new purchases of National VI diesel and electric trucks receiving subsidies of 40,000 to 65,000 yuan and 70,000 to 95,000 yuan respectively [11]. - The expected replacement rate of 20% for old vehicles could lead to an increase of 94,000 to 96,000 heavy-duty truck sales in 2026 [11]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant trend towards higher battery capacities in new electric trucks, with 126 models exceeding 600 kWh, indicating a shift towards longer-distance applications [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks is projected to reach 30% in 2026, supported by differentiated subsidy policies [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the heavy-duty truck sector due to prior investments in new energy by domestic companies, alongside favorable market conditions [11]. - The overall low valuation and high dividend yield of the sector provide a good safety margin for investors, making it an attractive investment opportunity [11].

2026年"两新"政策发布之后，元旦提振消费的力度进一步加大。 2025年12月30日，国家发展改革委和财政部联合对外发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》（以下简称《通 知》），提出在汽车报废更新、汽车置换更新、家电、数码和智能产品等领域，实施消费品以旧换新政策。 近日，国家发展改革委会同财政部，已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 2026年元旦，消费品以旧换新政策的落地情况如何？21世纪经济报道记者走访西安市区线下门店获悉，自2026年1月1日以来，位于西安的大部 分线下门店，已启动最新的"国补"政策。 "我们目前主要补贴品类是电视、冰箱、洗衣机等，除了部分厨电机器不参与补贴外，基本都有千元左右的补贴。"西安市北大明宫钻石店商家 对21世纪经济报道记者表示。 此外，根据河北、河南、四川等地的数据，以旧换新政策与节日热度形成共振，进一步提振了元旦消费。 对于最新的以旧换新政策，国家发改委国家信息中心研究员魏琪嘉表示，从新一轮政策的支持重点看，在保持政策连续性、稳定性的同时，政 策在精准化方面有了很大的提升，政策组合拳的效果非常值得 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles. The policy is expected to significantly boost the sales of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][9][18]. - The report maintains a judgment of "price increase and stable volume" for domestic passenger car demand in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry despite potential market fluctuations [18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2026 Vehicle Replacement Policy - The policy supports scrapping and replacing personal vehicles with subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 CNY) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 CNY) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [9][10]. - It also includes support for scrapping old commercial vehicles and promoting the electrification of city buses [9][10]. 2. Market Share Tracking in PHEV Segment - The report focuses on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as they adjust their market strategies and configurations [11]. - The analysis indicates significant variance in market shares due to increased supply and competitive strategies [11]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy aligns with expectations, and the report anticipates a rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger car sales due to the subsidy structure [18]. - The report reflects on the previous year's strategy of "emerging from deflation," which has proven to be correct, and emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes and strategic adjustments by leading companies [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, and others for potential growth [19]. - Specific companies are categorized into "right-side" and "left-side" targets based on their operational performance and market positioning [19].

摘要 ► 本周行情 ：汽车板块本周表现优于市场 本周（ 2025 年 12 月 29 日 -2026 年 1 月 4 日） A 股汽车板块上涨 1.9% ，在申万子行业中排名第 4 位，表现优于沪深 300 （ +1.8pct ）。细分板块 中，汽车零部件、商用载客车、摩托车及其他、商用载货车分别上涨 3.8% 、 0.4% 、 0.2% 、 0.1% ，乘用车、汽车服务分别 -1.3% 、 -2.3% 。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合 【 吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、比亚迪、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力 】 。 ► 华为增资人形机器人赛道，持续关注机器人板块。 12 月 29 日，华为全资持股的东莞极目机器有限公司注册资本由 38.9 亿元增至 46.9 亿元，由华为全资认缴。公司法定代表人为华为列席常务董事李建国， 定位于人形机器人资源整合平台，聚焦机器视觉、自然语言处理等关键技术方向。中期来看，特斯拉量产进程与技术路线迭代或仍是核心主线，宇树科技等国产 机器人主机厂即将密集进入 IPO 阶段，有望成为板块强事件催化。客户维度：重视特斯拉确定性主线 + 其他核心主机厂重大更新；产品维度： ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"下部分行业格局快速变化导致就业压力的风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 旧换新"政策观察 追求精细化，开启新阶段——2026 年"以 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 04 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "old for new" policy in 2026 aims to stimulate consumer spending, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with significant financial support from the government [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 625 billion yuan for the first batch of special long-term bonds to support the "old for new" policy [2]. - The policy covers various sectors, including automotive, home appliances, and digital products, with a focus on enhancing consumer spending during the New Year holiday [3][4]. - The policy aims to optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies by removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector [4]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - In Xi'an, most offline stores have begun to implement the new subsidy policy, offering around 1,000 yuan in subsidies for products like televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines [2][5]. - Sales data from January 1 to 2, 2026, in Hebei showed a total sales volume of 5.90 billion yuan, with 813.24 million yuan in subsidies utilized [7]. - In Henan, the sales of household appliances reached 26.86 million yuan in the first two days of the holiday, indicating a positive impact from the policy [8]. Group 3: Market Trends - The policy has led to a significant increase in sales of energy-efficient and water-efficient appliances, with 92% of products sold in major stores meeting these standards [5][12]. - The sales of smartphones and smartwatches saw a remarkable increase of 170% and 115% respectively, indicating a strong demand for digital products [6]. - The policy is expected to drive innovation and upgrades in the electronics and home appliance industries, benefiting both consumers and the economy [10][12]. Group 4: Policy Adjustments - The new policy includes specific adjustments, such as a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for new car purchases and a 12% subsidy for electric vehicle scrappage [9]. - Subsidies for home appliances are set at 15% of the product price for energy-efficient models, with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [9]. - The policy emphasizes the importance of standards in promoting energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions [12].

"新年零点一过就成功下单了！"吴女士兴奋地说，她购买的手机，原价5999元，在享受企业优惠及品牌 补贴后，通过银联云闪付领取资格并支付，又额外享受国家补贴500元，实际支付仅4849元。此外，她 还可以参加抽奖活动。"非常划算！"吴女士说。 2026年"国补"新政不仅延续了对汽车、家电的补贴，还将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品购新 补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品（含适老化家居产 品）。在京东MALL的新年车展现场，一辆崭新的广汽埃安i60新能源SUV完成了补贴核销手续，标志 着全国首单汽车"国补"也在广州诞生。"前不久，因为错过了2025年以旧换新补贴，感到很'蚀底'，没想 到赶上了2026年的最新政策。"埃安i60车主郑先生开心地说。 全城联动 政策引领带动节庆消费 当人们喜迎新年到来的时候，2026年全国首单线下"国补"在广州落地。2026年1月1日0时，在广州京东 Mall，不少消费者早早来到店内，计划抢饮2026年"国补"头啖汤。市民吴女士成功下单一台手机，成为 2026年全国首位享受国家以旧换新线下家电数码补贴的幸运消费者。 借"国补"政策东风，广州商贸 ...

2026 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究 4Q25 特斯拉交付低于预期，2026E 以旧换新补贴延续或提振销量 12 月蔚来重回新势力榜首：1）蔚来交付量同比+54.6%/环比+32.7%至 48,135 辆（NIO 品牌同比+54.8%/环比+75.4%至 31,897 辆、乐道品牌同比-13.1%/环 比-21.9%至 9,154 辆）；2）理想交付量同比-24.4%/环比+33.3%至 44,246 辆； 3）小鹏交付量同比+2.2%/环比+2.1%至 37,508 辆。 新年购车优惠陆续推出：特斯拉：国产 Model 3 全系将于 2026/2 交付， Model Y 长续航版本维持 2026/2 交付、后轮驱动版本维持 2026/1 交付，Model YL 将 于 2026/2 交付；Model 3 和 Model Y 延续 5 年 0 息金融政策，Model YL 延续 3 年 0 息金融政策。新势力：1）理想：L6 交付周期维持 1-3 周，MEGA 交付周期 维持 1-4 周，i8 交付周期维持 2-4 周，L9 交付周期维持 1-5 周（vs. 12 月为 3-5 周），L7 和 L8 交付周 ...