这种变化不是简单的"加品类"，而是聚焦消费者的真实需求做调整，家里想换什么、需要换什么，政策 就尽量把补贴覆盖到，进一步释放政策红利。 二是补贴标准调整，把钱花在刀刃上。近期，多地针对以旧换新补贴采取"摇号"、资格券、先到先得用 完即停的方式，这不是削减补贴，而是在一定的预算下提升分配效率与公平性，把有限的资金更精准地 投向真实换新需求，让真正需要的人群受益。例如，"每日额度用完即止"的动态管控，能让资金均匀覆 盖整个周期，提升不同时间段参与人群的公平性；摇号机制则进一步打破"拼手速"的局限，通过随机分 配，让更多普通消费者有机会参与。 近期，多地消费者在购物时留意到，以旧换新政策正围绕涉及品类、补贴方式等核心环节进行调整。相 关调整不仅紧扣"往实里做"的鲜明导向，更在细节处下功夫、在变化里藏温度，将便利与关怀实实在在 送到消费者手中，让政策红利更可感、更暖心。 一是品类扩容，持续释放政策效能。以前提到以旧换新，大家第一反应就是换家电、换汽车。现如今， 各地都在品类方面"添新"，例如部分地方把适老化改造纳入，旧的普通马桶换成智能助老马桶能拿补 贴。 （文章来源：证券日报） 这种调整，本质上是财政补贴提质增效的 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：废铝供应紧缺持续，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0 1 - 0 2 0 1 - 1 4 0 1 - 2 6 0 2 - 0 7 0 2 - 1 9 0 3 - 0 3 0 3 - 1 5 0 3 - 2 7 0 4 - 0 9 0 4 - 2 1 0 5 - 0 6 0 5 - 1 8 0 5 - 3 0 0 6 - 1 1 0 6 - 2 3 0 7 - 0 5 0 7 - 1 7 0 7 - 2 9 0 8 - 1 0 0 8 - 2 2 0 9 - 0 3 0 9 - 1 5 0 9 - 2 7 1 0 - 1 6 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The August CPI turned negative at -0.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food prices, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Core CPI continues to improve, reaching 0.9% year-on-year, supported by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry, as well as services [4][5] CPI Analysis - The food price index fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables, fruits, and pork contributing significantly to the decline [3][4] - The drop in vegetable and pork prices may not be sustained due to high base effects from last year, where prices surged due to extreme weather conditions [3][4] - The core CPI's increase is attributed to a 37.1% rise in gold jewelry prices and a 27.3% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing 0.31 percentage points to the core CPI [5][6] PPI Analysis - The PPI ended its downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is beginning to show, but its impact on prices is limited, with various industries experiencing reduced price declines [8][9] - Predictions indicate that the PPI may have reached its bottom in July, with future declines expected to narrow, although a positive trend in the next year remains challenging [9][10] Consumer Goods and Services - Prices of durable goods are showing improvement, with household appliances increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and communication tools by 0.8% [6][7] - The automotive sector is experiencing a reduction in price declines due to improved competition management, with fuel vehicle prices decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year [6][7] - Despite the rise in consumer prices for certain goods, the PPI for related industries has not improved, indicating a potential slowdown in demand [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the home appliance industry, highlighting three main investment themes: white goods, export opportunities, and core components [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 7.34% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 482.5 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.14% to 37.41 billion yuan [4][15][18]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with white goods showing steady growth, while kitchen appliances faced declines in both revenue and profit [4][38][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.3% from April to June 2025, lagging behind the 1.3% increase in the CSI 300 index [10][11]. 2. Q2 2025 Revenue and Profit Trends - The home appliance industry saw a total revenue of 482.5 billion yuan, marking a 7.34% increase year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 37.41 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.14% growth [4][15][18]. 3. Sub-sector Performance 3.1 White Goods - White goods revenue reached 300.21 billion yuan, growing by 5.81% year-on-year, while net profit was 30.38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.86% [38][39]. 3.2 Kitchen Appliances - Kitchen appliance revenue fell by 8.36% to 7.944 billion yuan, with net profit declining by 13.80% to 0.813 billion yuan [43][44]. 3.3 Small Appliances - Small appliances achieved a revenue increase of 14.10% to 37.23 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 14.68% to 2.599 billion yuan [49][50]. 3.4 Black Goods - Black goods revenue grew by 8.23% to 100.34 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 13.93% to 1.342 billion yuan [53][55]. 3.5 Components - The components sector reported a revenue increase of 15.74% to 36.739 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 14.38% to 2.278 billion yuan [58][61]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the white goods sector, export-oriented firms, and key component manufacturers, highlighting their potential for growth amid favorable market conditions [4][5][6].

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 新能源： 9月1-7日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售18.1万辆，同比去年9月同期下降3%，较上月同期下降 1%，全国新能源市场零售渗透率59.6%，今年以来累计零售775.2万辆，同比增长25%；9月1-7日，全国乘用车 厂商新能源批发17.9万辆，同比去年9月同期增长5%，较上月同期增长12%，新能源厂商批发渗透率58.1%，今 年以来累计批发912.2万辆，同比增长33%。 2.2025年9月全国乘用车市场零售 9月第一周全国乘用车市场日均零售4.3万辆，同比去年9月同期下降10%，较上月同期下降4%。 9月1-7日，全国乘用车市场零售30.4万辆，同比去年9月同期下降10%，较上月同期下降4%；今年以来累 计零售1,506.9万辆，同比增长9%。 2025年9月车市零售开局走势平稳，相对于2023年基本持平，但弱于2024年9月初的表现。由于2024年7月 底开始的国家以旧换新政策加力扩围，带动8月零售走强超预期，但厂商的8月目标并不高，因此部分经销商的 去年8月末销量转到9月初，实现月度销量进度的更均衡，这也导致今年的9月初车市出现一定的负增长，尤其 是部分地区的以旧换新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating a "Look Forward" investment rating for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.34% in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 482.5 billion yuan [4][19]. - The net profit for the industry in Q2 2025 was 37.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.14% [4][22]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from real estate policy changes and trade-in incentives; 2) Export opportunities driven by large customer orders; 3) Core components seeing increased demand due to the favorable market conditions for white goods [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.3% from April 1 to June 30, 2025, compared to a 1.3% increase in the CSI 300 index [14][18]. 2. Q2 2025 Home Appliance Industry Performance - Revenue growth of 7.34% year-on-year, with total revenue of 482.5 billion yuan [4][19]. - Net profit growth of 3.14% year-on-year, totaling 37.41 billion yuan [4][22]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.36 percentage points to 23.21% [25]. 3. Sub-Industry Performance 3.1 White Goods - Revenue reached 300.21 billion yuan, growing by 5.81% year-on-year [41]. - Net profit was 30.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.86% [42]. 3.2 Kitchen Appliances - Revenue declined by 8.36% to 7.944 billion yuan, with net profit down 13.80% to 0.813 billion yuan [46]. 3.3 Small Appliances - Revenue increased by 14.10% to 37.23 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 14.68% to 2.599 billion yuan [51]. 3.4 Black Goods - Revenue grew by 8.23% to 100.34 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 13.93% to 1.342 billion yuan [55]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree, due to their favorable valuation and growth potential [4][5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley provides a mixed evaluation of Apple's 2025 fall launch, indicating that the favorable pricing of the iPhone 17 series is offset by the moderate market outlook for the iPhone Air [3][4]. Group 1: iPhone Air Pricing Concerns - The iPhone Air, priced at $999, may face sales challenges due to its high price relative to its features, which are seen as lacking compared to the Pro models [3][6]. - The iPhone Air is described as the "thinnest iPhone ever" but has limited advantages over the Pro versions, leading to expectations of modest sales growth [3][6]. - Historical data suggests that Plus series models typically account for only a small percentage of total iPhone sales, and while the Air may see some incremental sales, it is unlikely to meet optimistic market growth expectations [6]. Group 2: Pro Series Advantages - The iPhone 17 base model maintains a favorable starting price of $799, with storage increased to 256GB, aligning with Chinese subsidy policies, which may support Apple's recovery in that market [3][8]. - The Pro models have seen significant upgrades in features while maintaining competitive pricing, which is expected to drive consumer interest and improve Apple's average selling price and profit margins [9]. - The Pro series is anticipated to be the main driver for improving the product mix, with substantial upgrades in camera systems and overall functionality [9]. Group 3: Trade-In Offers and Accessories - U.S. carriers are offering more generous trade-in incentives for the iPhone 17 series compared to the previous iPhone 16 cycle, which may stimulate consumer upgrade demand [11][12]. - In terms of accessories, while there are notable innovations in products like the Apple Watch and AirPods, their impact on overall investment logic is considered limited, with the primary growth driver expected to come from the iPhone product line [13].

Economic Recovery - The manufacturing PMI for August is at 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery from July, but overall economic growth momentum may have peaked [1] - The economy is expected to show a non-linear characteristic due to increasing uncertainties in the external environment, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1][2] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a dual bull structure in stocks and bonds, driven by nominal GDP growth [1][2] Industrial Production - Industrial production is expected to maintain stability, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% for August [3] - The "Two New" policies are supporting domestic industrial demand, while export activities are still providing some support during the US-China tariff exemption period [3][4] - The manufacturing new orders index for August is at 49.5%, indicating a contraction in market demand [4] Consumer Spending - The expected year-on-year growth for social retail sales in August is 3.5%, slightly down from 3.7% in July [5] - The "Eight Provisions" are expected to continue suppressing public consumption, particularly affecting the restaurant and tobacco sectors [6] - The impact of the "old-for-new" policy on consumer spending is diminishing, with a reduction in fiscal support leading to pressure on retail sales [7][8] Investment Demand - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August is projected at 1.1%, with manufacturing investment growth at 5.2% and infrastructure investment at 3.0% [9][10] - The real estate sector continues to experience a decline, with investment down by 12.7% [15] - The overall capital expenditure in the real estate chain is lagging behind economic recovery, indicating a need for policy acceleration [10][14] Export Trends - Export growth for August is expected to be 6.9%, with a potential downtrend approaching due to previous over-importing by the US [17] - The import growth rate is projected at 2.8%, influenced by domestic demand policies and base effects [17] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to remain stable, while PPI continues to decline, with August projections at -3.4% year-on-year [18][21] - Consumer goods prices are expected to show limited elasticity, with pork prices stabilizing and oil prices remaining weak [19][21] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate for August is projected at 5.3%, with seasonal pressures from recent graduates [22] - Employment policies are being implemented to alleviate youth unemployment, with a focus on creating new job opportunities [22] Financial Data - New social financing for August is expected to be 2.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease [23] - M2 growth is projected at 8.7%, reflecting weak credit demand and a shift towards non-bank financial products [25][26]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is Guangdong Shunwei Precision Plastic Co., Ltd., with stock code 002676 and abbreviation Shunwei Co. [1] - The company specializes in plastic air conditioning fan blades and automotive parts [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from plastic air conditioning fan blades was 967 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.94% [3]. - The revenue from automotive parts was 338 million CNY, accounting for 21.34% of total revenue [3]. Group 3: Market Impact and Strategy - The downturn in the domestic real estate sector is expected to have some impact on the fan blade business, but factors like the old-for-new policy, increased demand in overseas emerging markets, and the trend towards smart home air conditioning are providing strong support [2][3]. - The company’s core competitiveness lies in its leading design and technology R&D advantages, complete industrial chain, and management strengths [3]. Group 4: Customer Base and Payment Situation - The main customers for the automotive parts business include overseas Tier 1 suppliers like Magna and Inteva [3]. - The payment situation with downstream customers, primarily well-known domestic and international home appliance and automotive parts companies, is reported to be normal [3]. Group 5: Research and Development - The company has 432 R&D personnel as per the 2024 annual report [3]. - The R&D model for plastic air conditioning fan blades involves meeting specific technical requirements from manufacturers and utilizing advanced computational techniques for optimal design [4].

Group 1 - The heavy truck wholesale sales in August reached approximately 84,000 units, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 1% but a year-on-year increase of about 35%, indicating a strong performance in the off-season [1] - Cumulative wholesale sales of heavy trucks from January to August amounted to approximately 708,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - The domestic terminal sales of heavy trucks in August are expected to grow by about 50% year-on-year, benefiting from the trade-in policy [1] Group 2 - The demand for gas vehicles has rebounded significantly in August, with terminal sales expected to increase by over 15% month-on-month and over 30% year-on-year, returning to positive growth [2] - The penetration rate of gas vehicles increased from less than 22% in July to 26%-27% in August [2] - The terminal sales of electric heavy trucks are expected to exceed 16,000 units in August, representing a year-on-year increase of over 160% [2] Group 3 - Both China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power reported their Q2 revenues, with China National Heavy Duty Truck at 133 billion and Weichai Power at 557 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% and a decrease of 3% respectively [3] - The net profits for China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power were 3.6 billion and 29.3 billion respectively, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 15% and 8% [3] - The heavy truck industry is expected to see an upward trend in the second half of 2025, with leading companies likely to benefit significantly [3] Group 4 - The heavy truck industry is anticipated to recover in 2024, with domestic sales remaining stable and overseas markets continuing to grow [4] - The trade-in policy is expected to stimulate demand for terminal replacements, driving domestic sales towards the central level in 2025 [4] - The increase in export and natural gas sales proportions is expected to optimize the profit structure significantly, with profit elasticity likely to exceed sales elasticity [4]