消息面上，根据小鹏汽车2月1日公告，公司1月交付新车20011辆，同比下降34.07%，环比下降 46.65%。交银国际认为，1Q26车市受季节性淡季与前期消费透支的双重影响，整体表现平淡。尽管以 旧换新政策的延续对年初预期形成支撑，但受限于15万元以内车型补贴力度退坡，消费者观望情绪加 剧，倾向于等待地方补贴细则落地，致使年初部分购车需求延后释放。 智通财经APP获悉，小鹏汽车-W(09868)续跌超3%，截至发稿，跌3.07%，报64.75港元，成交额5.28亿 港元。 ...

总量：2026年车市迎来"开门红"，2026年1月国内批发销量10万辆，同比+39%，环比基本持平。其中终端销量 为3-3.1万辆，同比减少5%-10%；出口销量超2.6万辆，同比增长超20%。批发端高增长一定程度有部分车企销量结算周期差 异造成。展望2026Q1，国内以旧换新政策延续，春节后补贴有望落地，国内销量有支撑；海外同期低基数叠加亚非高景气 下，出口有望持续高增。 结构：新能源明显回落，天然气有所回升。 新能源：2025年年末以旧换新政策截止叠加新能源购置税退坡造成的透支效应下，2026年1月新能源重卡销量 大幅回落。2025年1月销量约为0.7万辆，新能源渗透率约22%。根据我们最新外发报告，随着节后补贴落地，新能源渗透率 有望回到25年下半年稳态渗透率28%以上，全年有望达33%。 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 加入社群 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货 报告和精准人脉。 CATL ： 往期推荐 储能市场增长高于动力 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删 ...

国家税务总局利用税收大数据对消费情况进行跟踪分析显示，2025年我国消费市场活跃。 家电（核心股）产业链相关港股： 美的集团(00300)、海尔智家(06690)、海信家电（核心股）(00921)、TCL电子(01070)、创维集团 （00751）、小米集团-W（01810） 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2025年，在以旧换新政策带动下，冰箱等日用家电（核心股）零售业、燃气灶等厨具卫具零售业、手机 等通信设备零售业销售收入同比分别增长17.4%、12.9%和18.6%，消费需求加速释放。 智通财经获悉，新一轮以旧换新行动正在各地火热进行。在济南市济阳区，这几天就开展起乡村国补活 动，上百款家电（核心股）、3C产品走进村镇，当地政府专项下发国补资格码，村民不仅可以直接享 受国补，还能额外享受到商家补贴，上千名附近村镇居民涌入活动现场，热闹非凡。 中信建投发布研报称，2026年面临铜价中枢上移与人民币升值的双重考验，该行认为其对家电（核心 股）龙头盈利的冲击整体可控。过往经验看，顺价是化解成本压力最为有效的核心手段。国补落地下需 求有支撑，元旦后提价存共识。凭借强大的终端定价权、 ...

每经AI快讯，国家税务总局利用税收大数据对消费情况进行跟踪分析显示，2025年我国消费市场活 跃。2025年，在以旧换新政策带动下，冰箱等日用家电零售业、燃气灶等厨具卫具零售业、手机等通信 设备零售业销售收入同比分别增长17.4%、12.9%和18.6%，消费需求加速释放。以旧换新行动有力拉动 着乡村消费，销售平台数据显示，2025年乡镇及以下地区家电订单量同比增长64%，用户数同比增长 38%。（央视新闻） ...

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy is expected to maintain resilience in early 2026, supported by tax cuts and capital expenditures from tech companies, with the Fed likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%[2][13] - In Europe, the Eurozone is experiencing weak recovery, with geopolitical issues, particularly related to Greenland, posing significant uncertainty for the economy[2][21] - The ECB maintains its policy rate unchanged, with expectations of no rate cuts in 2026, as inflation pressures continue to ease[2][21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's GDP growth in 2025 is expected to meet targets despite a slowdown in Q4, with exports likely to remain strong in early 2026 due to tax policy adjustments and semiconductor industry performance[3][26] - Fixed asset investment is showing signs of stabilization, but the real estate sector remains cautious, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% in new construction area[3][30] - Consumer spending is under pressure from high base effects and weak internal demand, with retail sales growth slowing in December 2025[3][32] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The PBOC announced a structural monetary policy package, indicating room for further rate cuts and a focus on supporting the real economy[4][42] - Fiscal policies are being coordinated with monetary measures, including interest subsidies and risk-sharing policies to stimulate investment and consumption[4][44] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic changes could significantly impact domestic economic conditions and financial markets[5][45] - The interplay between domestic policies and economic performance remains critical, with potential for significant shifts in response to external pressures[5][45]

证券研究报告 港股通 中国重汽 (3808 HK) 聚力开门红，出口拓宽成长路 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港 商用车 进入 26 年，公司全力冲刺"开门红"，为新一年的销量增长打下坚实基础。 展望 26 年，行业端受益于两新政策快速衔接（内销）和亚非拉地区重点突 破（出口），我们看好重卡行业保持高景气度。公司作为头部重卡企业或率 先受益，维持"买入"评级。 25 年交出亮眼答卷，26 年"开局即冲刺" 王立献* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525020001 wanglixian@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 2025 年，中国重汽集团整车销量突破 44 万辆，其中重卡销量 30 万辆，不 仅连续 4 年销量稳居国内重卡行业第一公司，更成为全球重卡销量龙头。我 们认为公司取得亮眼成绩，主要原因系：①强大生产制造能力支撑；②国内 市场充分受益于两新政策范围扩大（扩大至国四）和快速衔接；③海外市场 的持续耕耘（12 月与哈萨克斯坦卡拉干达州州长举行会见并签约）。进入 26 年，集团召开"新征程·谋新篇·势夺首季开门红"的生产经营大会。 我们认为该会议为公司 Q1 开门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, implemented from 2024 to 2025, is supported by a total of 450 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funding, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and boost retail sales, although its multiplier effect appears to be less than expected [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The State Council issued measures in July 2024, allocating approximately 150 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds for the "old-for-new" policy, with an additional 300 billion yuan planned for 2025, expanding the range of eligible products from 8 to 12 categories [2]. - The estimated sales driven by the subsidies in 2024 and 2025 are projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from various sectors including automobiles and home appliances [3]. Group 2: Impact on Retail Sales - Retail sales growth for "old-for-new" related products showed an initial acceleration followed by a decline, with significant growth in categories like communication equipment and cultural office supplies, while automotive consumption lagged behind overall consumer spending [4][10]. - The first year after the policy implementation saw a 10% increase in sales for related categories, but the second year showed only a 2% increase, indicating a diminishing effect of the policy [7][10]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics and Coverage - The total number of beneficiaries from the "old-for-new" policy was only 480 million, with a notable drop to 80 million in the second half of 2025, suggesting limited reach among the broader population [25]. - The primary beneficiaries are higher-income groups, as the average price of eligible products, particularly automobiles, is high, limiting participation from lower-income consumers [25]. Group 4: Future Policy Adjustments - The 2026 policy adjustments include expanding the subsidy range to include smart glasses, standardizing subsidy amounts, and shifting from fixed to proportional subsidies for vehicle replacements, aiming to enhance fairness and effectiveness [24]. - To increase the coverage of the "old-for-new" policy, considerations include increasing funding, lowering average product prices, and focusing on job creation and income stability rather than solely on sales volume [26].

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, implemented from 2024 to 2025, is supported by a total of 450 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funds, with subsidies reaching over 480 million consumers. This policy is expected to drive sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan and contribute 0.6 percentage points to the growth of retail sales of consumer goods. However, the policy's multiplier effect appears to be less than expected, with a declining number of beneficiaries in the latter half of 2025 [1][2][29]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The "old-for-new" policy has undergone a process of "introduction - strengthening - expansion," with the State Council allocating approximately 150 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds in July 2024 and 300 billion yuan in 2025 to support the initiative [2]. - The number of product categories eligible for subsidies increased from 8 to 12, including new subsidies for digital products like smartphones [2]. Group 2: Sales Impact and Trends - Retail sales growth for five major categories related to the "old-for-new" policy showed an initial acceleration followed by a decline, with significant growth in communication equipment and cultural office supplies, while home appliances and furniture saw negative monthly growth rates [4][14]. - The first full year after the policy's implementation saw a 10% increase in sales for related categories, significantly higher than the 3% growth in the year prior [8][11]. Group 3: Effectiveness and Challenges - The initial impact of the policy was strong, but the growth in retail sales is expected to weaken in the second year due to the nature of durable goods, where consumers may not replace items frequently [15]. - The expansion of eligible products is expected to support continued retail sales growth, particularly in categories like communication equipment and cultural office supplies [20]. Group 4: Automotive Sector Insights - The "old-for-new" subsidy for automobiles has had a limited effect on retail sales, as high vehicle prices and macroeconomic factors significantly influence consumer behavior [24]. - Despite a substantial number of vehicles benefiting from the subsidy, the overall impact on automotive retail sales remains modest compared to other categories [24]. Group 5: Environmental and Safety Benefits - The policy promotes green production and living practices, with significant energy savings and carbon emission reductions achieved through the promotion of low-carbon products and improved recycling systems [27]. - The initiative has also enhanced product safety, with a notable increase in the number of compliant electric bicycles being replaced [27]. Group 6: Future Considerations and Adjustments - The 2026 policy adjustments aim to increase the beneficiary population and improve subsidy effectiveness, including expanding the range of eligible products and standardizing subsidy amounts [28][29]. - There is a need to consider lowering the average price of subsidized products to enhance purchasing willingness among lower-income groups and to shift the focus of the policy towards job creation and income stability [30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Jiangsu Province's initiative to promote large-scale equipment updates and optimize the implementation of the "old for new" consumption policy by 2026, including subsidies for various consumer goods [1][3] - The central economic work conference in December 2025 emphasized the importance of releasing potential and improving efficiency rather than increasing stimulus measures, indicating a cautious approach to economic growth in 2026 [1] - The retail sales of social consumer goods are projected to grow by 3% in 2026, lower than the 3.7% growth in 2025, due to high base effects, reduced subsidy scales, and pressures on income growth [3] Group 2 - The "old for new" policy is expected to significantly influence retail sales, with a doubling of subsidy scale compared to the previous year, although the actual impact may not meet expectations [3] - Service retail sales showed a positive trend with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, indicating a recovery in this sector, while goods consumption faces challenges [3] - Recommendations include increasing counter-cyclical policies, particularly fiscal measures to support service consumption and stabilize the real estate market, aiming to shift the economic development model from export and investment-driven to consumption-led growth [3]

央视网消息：这两天，重庆巫溪年货市集正在火热进行中。2026年，当地将年货市集与以旧换新政策深度融合，并通过年味游戏、 民俗汇演等方式，打造新春县域消费新场景。 据了解，本次年货市集将持续至1月28日。这期间，消费者除了采购年货，还可以在现场参加美食比拼赛事、年味主题游戏，欣赏 地方特色文艺表演等。 值得一提的是，本次年货市集深度融合以旧换新政策，专门设置了汽车展销专区，叠加国家以旧换新政策红利、地方政府补贴及商 家专属让利，打造特色购车消费场景，为群众送上实实在在的新春福利。 在重庆市巫溪县的年货市集上，来自渝、陕、鄂三地的农特产品摆满了展位，吸引顾客驻足选购。 ...