GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：需求季节性提振有限，样本屠宰企开工率 34.12%，较上月微降 0.30 个百分点；鲜销率 均值 85.70%，环比下滑 0.75 个百分点，批发市场白条销量难形成有效拉动，终端消费承接力 不足。 供给：全国重点省份养殖企业生猪计划出栏量环比涨 3.20%。年底规模企业冲刺出栏计划，前 期二次育肥猪源集中出栏，全国生猪均重达 123.68kg，大猪供应偏多，整体供应压力较大。 生猪 库存：屠宰企业主动入库积极性低，但猪肉供应偏多导致鲜销困难，部分企业被动入库，冻品 库存呈 "入库量大于出库量" 的增加态势，库存压力抑制企业补库意愿。 利润：养殖端处于微亏状态，在猪价持续承压的情况下，虽然养殖成本有所下降，但利润空间 难以有效修复。当前市场缺乏推动价格强势回升的动力，预计短期养殖利润将继续承压。 结论：供需失衡格局短期难扭转，12 月价格将低位震荡、短暂回弹后承压回落，养殖端微亏持 续，需 ...

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 05 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

周三(12月3日)欧盘时段，现货白银收窄亚盘跌幅，暂守于58美元关口附近，美国11月"小非农"ADP就 业人数将于今晚21:15公布。美联储下周议息会议在即，官方非农就业人数与通胀数据却罕见"缺席"。 在缺乏关键指引的背景下，今晚小非农就业人数或成美联储窥探就业市场的唯一窗口，届时白银行情恐 出现剧烈波动！ 【要闻速递】 周一公布的制造业数据弱于预期，进一步加大了降息压力。投资者们正密切关注即将公布的关键数据， 包括周三的11月份ADP就业报告和周五的9月份个人消费支出(PCE)指数，后者是美联储首选的通胀指 标。尽管这些数据可能不会颠覆降息决定，但它们将为美联储的利率路径提供更多指引。 进入12月，白银价格继续保持抛物线式的上涨势头，目前COMEX现货白银交投于58.63美元/盎司附 近，盘中早些时候曾刷新历史高点至59.65美元/盎司。 值得一提的是，白银的大部分涨幅集中在11月的最后一周，当时价格飙升14.5%，首次突破每盎司55美 元的历史纪录。这一突破性上涨发生在CME交易因技术故障暂停10小时之后，交易于上周五北美时段 恢复，这也从侧面反映出市场对白银的狂热追捧。 德商银行：预计未来一年银价将进一 ...

文 |姑苏九歌 编辑 |姑苏九歌 12月1日那天，手机上的期货APP差点炸了现货白银价格"噌"地一下冲破每盎司57美元，纽约商品交易所的白银期货更猛，直接摸到57.81美元，这可是实打 实的历史新高。 紧接着伦敦金属交易所的铜价也坐不住了，11210.5美元一吨，同样是历史头一遭。 盯着K线图看了半天，这俩金属最近半年跟开了挂似的，白银从8月底到现在涨了快30%，铜也涨了13%，普通投资者估计都看懵了，不就是白银和铜吗，咋 突然成了市场新宠？ 今天咱就聊聊，这波涨价到底啥逻辑，普通人能不能跟着喝口汤。 价格飙涨的直接推手 伦敦金属交易所的铜价12月1日摸到11210.5美元，美国Comex铜价也涨了1%。 有做期货的老铁跟我说，最近贸易商跟疯了似的把铜库存往美国运，就为了赚那边的溢价。 本来铜矿供应就紧张，这一来一回，市场上的铜更不够用了。 智利那边的铜矿最近不是罢工就是品位下降，挖出来的矿石铜含量比几年前降了快一半，产量自然上不去。 先说白银，这玩意儿最近跟坐火箭似的。 有个在上海做贵金属贸易的朋友跟我吐槽，11月底去上海黄金交易所调货，发现白银库存只剩715.875吨，创了七年新低。 你猜怎么着？10月份 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - International copper prices have reached new highs, with London copper futures reported at $11,197.5 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 27.5% [1] - The initial driver for the price increase is a tightening supply due to operational disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is one of the largest copper-gold mines globally, producing 1.7 billion pounds of copper annually [1] - The expected recovery of the Grasberg mine is projected for the first half of 2026, indicating a significant short-term capacity gap in the international copper market [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The construction boom of data centers and the growing demand from the renewable energy sector and grid upgrades are further increasing the demand for copper [1] - Several analysis firms have raised their projections for refined copper shortages by 2026 to between 300,000 to 400,000 tons [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and a weaker dollar, is exerting upward pressure on copper prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The inclusion of copper in the U.S. critical minerals list has led to increased arbitrage activities, concentrating inventories in the U.S. and tightening non-U.S. markets [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that copper prices are forming a self-reinforcing upward mechanism characterized by "inventory drawdown—spread widening—accelerated stockpiling," which is expected to keep prices high next year [2] Group 5: Price Forecasts - Major Wall Street institutions have raised their copper price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices between $10,000 to $11,000 per ton next year, while JPMorgan and Citigroup are more optimistic, forecasting prices to exceed $12,000 per ton [3] - UBS estimates that copper prices could rise to $13,000 per ton by the end of 2026, and Bank of America anticipates prices to surpass $13,500 per ton by 2027 [3] Group 6: Industry Developments - Glencore and Teck Resources are involved in a significant copper deal, proposing a merger between the Quebrada Blanca mine and the larger Collahuasi mine in northern Chile, which would create one of the world's major copper mining operations [4]

Core Insights - Silver futures reached a historic high on December 2, with a daily increase of over 6% and a weekly rise of 13.42%, closing at $57.08, surpassing the previous high of $51.29 from mid-October [1][3] - The current silver market is characterized as entering a structurally strong phase, with price levels being continuously reshaped [1][3] - Gold has gained significant market attention over the past two years, with a nearly 95% increase since October 2023, driven by multiple factors including institutional buying, geopolitical uncertainties, and concerns over currency purchasing power and sovereign debt [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing an unprecedented supply gap, with declining mineral supply and simultaneous growth in industrial and investment demand, leading to a typical supply-demand imbalance [2][4] - This structural gap is expected to push prices into a longer-term upward phase [2][4] - Silver's relative accessibility has attracted more retail investors, reinforcing its status as a "people's precious metal," similar to its historical role as a primary circulating metal [2][4] Performance Comparison - While gold has increased approximately 95% over the past 21 months, silver has seen a more rapid rise, doubling in price over the past year with a 100% return [2][4] - This relative advantage may lead to renewed investor interest in silver, creating a self-reinforcing demand cycle that could further extend the upward trend [2][4] Market Perception - Investors are currently focused on whether silver's historic rise represents a revaluation of its economic attributes or a catch-up to gold's previous gains [2][4] - Regardless of the answer, silver has clearly moved beyond its long-standing "subsidiary role," with its independent value logic being increasingly recognized by the market [2][4]

Core Insights - The stock prices of port and shipping companies in A-shares have surged due to increased international shipping rates and a significant rise in container shipping index futures [1] - The rise in shipping market prices is attributed to route restructuring, tight capacity, and supply-demand imbalances [1] - Geopolitical factors and climate change have led to longer shipping routes around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in increased travel time and fuel costs [1] - The global oil production increase has boosted transportation demand, with OPEC+ implementing multiple production hikes this year, leading to a notable rise in maritime oil exports [1] Company Performance - In 2023, 14 shipping companies in China reported net profit growth in the first three quarters, with some exceeding their total net profit from the previous year [1] - An Tong Holdings (600179), Jin Jiang Shipping (601083), and Liao Port Co. (601880) showed significant profit growth, with increases of 311.77%, 64.76%, and 37.51% respectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel**: In 2025, LME and SHFE nickel prices showed a downward trend throughout the year. The core issue was the exacerbation of supply - demand imbalance. Currently, nickel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In 2025, stainless steel prices generally followed the trend of nickel prices, showing a downward trend. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was difficult to reverse. Currently, stainless steel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [13]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends - Nickel and stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in 2025, and have now dropped to a 5 - year low. In 2026, both are expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand [1][5]. 2. Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: In 2025, there were many disturbances in Indonesia. The nickel ore price first rose and then fell. The RKAB total approval volume increased, but the actual production was far lower than the approved quota. It is expected that the RKAB approval volume will decline in 2026 [31][34]. - **Philippines**: In 2025, the nickel ore price showed a "high - level shock - seasonal decline - rainy - season support - weak stability" pattern. The export volume to Indonesia increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to grow throughout the year [36][37]. - **Sulfide Nickel Ore**: After the clearance of high - cost production capacity in 2024, the supply of overseas sulfide nickel ore has gradually stabilized [40]. 3. Refined Nickel - **Production**: From January to November 2025, domestic refined nickel production increased by 21.8% year - on - year. The import volume from Russia and Norway increased significantly [44]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global nickel inventory reached a 5 - year high. The main reason was the intensification of the supply - demand contradiction [48]. 4. Nickel Intermediates and Nickel Sulfate - **Nickel Intermediates**: In 2025, the production and price of MHP and high - nickel matte both increased. It is expected that the price of MHP will face downward pressure in the second quarter of 2026 [51][52]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: From January to October 2025, the production decreased by about 10% year - on - year. In the long term, the price is expected to continue to be weak [57][58]. 5. Ferronickel - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the total production of China and Indonesia increased by 11.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's supply proportion continued to rise [64]. - **Price**: In 2025, the ferronickel price fluctuated greatly and is currently close to the cost line. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term, but the downward space is limited [69]. 6. Stainless Steel - **Capacity and Production**: In 2025, the capacity continued to be released, and the supply increased steadily. The export volume remained stable, while the import volume decreased significantly [75][76]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory remained at a high level and showed a trend of re - accumulation [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost remained stable, and it was still difficult for the profit to turn positive in the short term [90][91]. 7. Terminal Demand - **Traditional Sectors**: In 2025, the real estate sector was sluggish, while the home appliance industry was outstanding. Overall, the demand showed a downward trend [94][95]. - **Lithium - Battery Industry**: The production of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly, driving nickel consumption. However, the proportion of ternary batteries continued to decline [101][102]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance - **Nickel**: In 2026, the oversupply of primary nickel is expected to shrink slightly [106][107]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel industry will improve the current supply - demand pattern under policy guidance, and the oversupply in China is expected to shrink in 2026 [112][113].

本周行业会议上矿商与冶炼厂围绕加工费激烈博弈，冶炼产能过剩令矿商占据主导，加工费跌至负值。大量精炼铜因关税预期流向美国，预计明年一季度 美国将持有全球90%铜库存，加剧其他地区供应短缺，全球最大铜生产商智利Codelco日前向中国开出每吨350美元创纪录溢价，全球铜市面临"极度错 配"。降息预期升温之际美元走软，也助推铜价走高。 分析指出，这场博弈的影响正在向全球扩散。随着美国因关税预期吸引大量精炼铜，全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）等供应商已向部 分中国客户开出每吨350美元的创纪录溢价。同时，美元因美联储降息的预期升温而走软，降低了海外买家采购成本，进一步支撑铜价上行。 矿商与冶炼厂正面交锋 美东时间28日周五美股早盘时段，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的期铜交易价涨至11210美元/吨附近，创盘中历史新高，日内涨幅扩大到2.5%，到收盘涨 近2.3%左右，报11189美元/吨，刷新一个月前所创的收盘最高纪录。这是继10月29日创下收盘纪录后，铜价再度突破关键阻力位。 伦铜创新高正逢铜供应极度吃紧。据周五稍早媒体报道，本周在上海举行的行业会议上，矿商与冶炼厂围绕加工费展开激烈谈判，矿商施压要求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tensions, driven by fierce negotiations between miners and smelters, tariff expectations from the U.S., and record metal premiums, leading to copper prices reaching new highs [1]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - On October 28, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to approximately $11,210 per ton, marking a 2.5% intraday increase and closing at $11,189 per ton, a new record high [1]. - The recent price surge follows a previous record set on October 29, indicating a significant upward trend in copper prices [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Tensions - The copper supply chain is under extreme pressure, with miners pushing for record-low processing fees during intense negotiations with smelters at an industry conference in Shanghai [1][3]. - The annual premium for refined copper shipped to China has reached an all-time high, reflecting the tight supply situation [2]. Group 3: Global Market Implications - The intense negotiations between miners and smelters are causing a ripple effect globally, with major suppliers like Codelco offering record premiums of $350 per ton to certain Chinese customers, significantly higher than the previously agreed $89 [2][4]. - The expectation that the U.S. will absorb a large amount of refined copper is leading to a supply mismatch, with projections indicating that by Q1 2026, the U.S. could hold 90% of the global copper inventory [4]. Group 4: Currency Influence - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, is contributing to the rise in copper prices by lowering procurement costs for overseas buyers [5]. - The ICE dollar index has been declining, which supports metal prices, including copper, amidst supply disruptions and policy-driven buying [5].