2025 年 12 月 29 日现货白银上演极端波动行情：开盘暴力拉升突破 80 美元 / 盎司关口，迅速触及 83 美元 / 盎司，日内涨幅一度超 5%，年内累计涨幅扩大至 52 美元；但随后 30 分钟内大幅跳水逾 6 美 元，日内振幅达 9 美元，最新报 76.5 美元 / 盎司，跌幅超 3%。同期，现货黄金高开逼近 4550 美元 / 盎 司新高后回落，跌破 4500 美元关口至 4497 美元 / 盎司。 此次异动并非偶然，Wmax拆解数据后明确三大核心驱动：一是地缘政治升级、美元弱势延续为贵金属 提供底层支撑，契合年末历史涨势规律；二是年末流动性稀薄加剧短期走势偏离基本面；三是白银纸货 与实物供需错配，Wmax供需模型验证显示实物库存难以满足交割需求，叠加美国关键矿产进口调查可 能引发贸易限制，进一步激化市场争夺。值得注意的是，Wmax风险预警系统已捕捉短期回调信号，贵 金属高位下短期投资者获利了结意愿升温，瑞银提示的交易风险与Wmax测算的"高位波动率阈值"共 振，成为白银大幅跳水的重要诱因。 2026 年贵金属走强的结构性支撑 Wmax结合宏观经济模型与行业数据推演，识别出2026年贵金属市场 ...

下周看点颇多，新年即将到来，美联储将发布12月会议纪要，外界将关注有关未来政策路径讨论的细 节。随着贵金属周五全线爆发，本轮行情能走多远受到越来越多关注。美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽 连斯基将进行会晤，俄乌局势能否迎来关键转折点或成为短期内油价走势的关键。 欧洲三大股指走高，英国富时100指数周涨0.99%，德国DAX 30指数周涨1.09%，法国CAC 40指数周涨 1.22%。 本周国际市场风云变幻，贵金属市场迎来井喷。美股全线上涨，道指周涨1.20%，纳指周涨1.22%，标 普500指数周涨1.40%。 国际油价结束连续两周下跌，外界关注地缘政治因素。WTI原油近月合约周涨0.39%，报56.74美元/ 桶，布伦特原油近月合约周涨0.28%，报60.64美元/桶。 尽管近期的供应中断推动油价从12月16日的近五年低点反弹，但当前油价仍大概率录得2020年以来最大 年度跌幅。受原油产量攀升引发市场对明年供应过剩的担忧影响，布伦特原油与西得克萨斯中质原油今 年以来的跌幅已分别达到18%和20%。Aegis Hedging宙斯盾对冲基金在周五发布的报告中表示："地缘 政治溢价虽为油价提供了短期支撑，但并未从根 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices have reached new highs, driven by increased safe-haven demand and geopolitical risks, marking a strong end-of-year market trend [1][3]. Precious Metals Performance - On December 26, gold futures rose by 1.11% to $4,552.7 per ounce, while silver futures surged by 7.69% to $77.196 per ounce, both setting new closing records [3]. - Platinum futures also hit a historic high, surpassing $2,400 per ounce with a weekly increase of over 22%, and palladium prices rose approximately 13% to $2,023.3 per ounce, the highest level in over three years [7]. Market Drivers - The decline of the US dollar and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly related to US sanctions on Venezuela's oil trade, have significantly enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. - The global silver market has faced a supply-demand imbalance for five consecutive years, contributing to the upward pressure on prices [9]. Future Outlook - Many international financial institutions predict that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, supported by expectations of continued loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and ongoing central bank gold purchases [11]. - The anticipated increase in US national debt, projected to exceed $20 trillion in 2026, alongside potential Fed rate cuts, may lead to a continued trend of capital flowing from US Treasuries to gold and silver [13]. Copper Market Insights - Concerns over a potential supply shortage in the global copper market have led to a more than 4% increase in copper futures on December 26, reinforcing the annual price rise [15].

Group 1: Core Issues of "Involution" Competition - "Involution" competition distorts market mechanisms and hinders innovation, leading to inefficient resource allocation and a lack of dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] - The imbalance between supply and demand is a fundamental cause of "involution" competition, with China's manufacturing capacity outpacing domestic effective demand, as evidenced by a 2.9% year-on-year growth in retail sales and a 1.7% decline in fixed asset investment [1] - Insufficient innovation is a deep-rooted cause of "involution" competition, with many companies relying on price competition due to market saturation and limited new market space, leading to intensified internal competition [2] Group 2: Role of Platform Economy - Platform-driven business models exacerbate "involution" competition, as leading platforms monopolize data and algorithms, shifting competition from product innovation to traffic-driven strategies [3] - The reliance on platforms leads to increased costs and diluted profits for merchants, while many small businesses become "digital vassals," limiting their differentiation capabilities [3] Group 3: Government Influence - Government overreach and neglect contribute to "involution" competition, with local governments pursuing short-term economic growth through protectionism and irrational industrial layouts, resulting in overcapacity in certain industries [4] - Inadequate regulatory frameworks and a lack of understanding of new technologies hinder the correction of disorderly competition in various sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures market experienced a significant rally, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing, escalating geopolitical tensions, and increased capital flow regulations by central banks to address inflation and financial stability challenges [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.31% to $4,562.00 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 3.98% [1]. - COMEX silver futures surged by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, achieving a weekly gain of 18.06% [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is being supported by rising geopolitical risks and low market liquidity as the year-end approaches [3]. - A significant factor in silver's recent price surge is the supply mismatch following a historic "short squeeze" event in October, compounded by speculative inflows [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analyst Peter Krauth is optimistic about silver's long-term prospects, predicting a potential rise to $300 per ounce, driven by supply-demand imbalances and a significant correction in the gold-silver ratio [4]. - Krauth's forecast is based on the expectation that the gold-silver ratio, which has decreased from a peak of 104 to around 68, will further decline to 15 during a forthcoming market "frenzy" phase [4]. - Factors such as a weakening dollar, high government deficits, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks are also seen as catalysts for the current precious metals rally [4].

Core Viewpoint - The collective strength of precious metals is driven by three core logic factors: expectations of monetary policy easing, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] Monetary Policy Easing Expectations - The global liquidity easing cycle is the primary driver of the current rise in precious metals, with the Federal Reserve having completed three rate cuts by 2025 and expectations for further cuts in 2026 [2] - A low interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, prompting a shift of funds from fixed-income assets to precious metals [2] - The continuous weakening of the US dollar, which has fallen by 8.37% in 2025, enhances the purchasing power of non-US currency holders, stimulating global demand for precious metals [2] Geopolitical Risks and Supply-Demand Imbalances - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, contribute to a strong safe-haven premium for precious metals [3] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves to diversify assets and reduce reliance on US dollar assets, further supporting the bottom for precious metals [3] - Silver's price surge is driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with industrial demand increasing by 15% due to a 30% rise in global photovoltaic installations in 2025, while supply growth remains weak [5] Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market's siphoning effect has amplified the upward trend in precious metals, with significant inflows into silver futures funds reflecting strong retail investor interest [6] - Market sentiment is self-reinforcing, with reports of substantial profits attracting more investors, leading to a trend-driven market behavior [6] Regulatory Measures and Market Signals - Regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to cool the overheated market, such as trading limits on silver futures to curb excessive speculation [7] - The introduction of purchase limits on silver LOF funds indicates structural risks in the market, as funds reach trading limits and leverage constraints [8] Valuation and Volatility Risks - Precious metals are currently at historically high valuations, with silver up nearly 150% and gold up 70% in 2025, indicating accumulated risks of a price correction [9] - Price volatility has become the norm, with significant daily fluctuations in silver futures posing challenges for investors [9] Consumer Market Reactions - The surge in precious metal prices has led to a negative sentiment in the consumer market, with potential buyers postponing purchases due to increased costs [10] - Historical trends show a negative correlation between precious metal prices and consumer demand, suggesting that high prices may suppress physical demand [10] Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - There is a divergence of opinions among institutions regarding the precious metals market in 2026, with some predicting significant price increases while others caution against the unsustainable high premiums [11] - Professional investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and consider increasing gold allocations while managing exposure to more volatile silver [12] - Retail investors should avoid speculative behaviors and consider phased buying strategies to mitigate risks associated with high premiums and market volatility [12] Conclusion - The precious metals bull market in 2025 is a result of multiple macroeconomic factors, but risks such as regulatory tightening and high valuations are emerging [13] - Investors should remain aware of both supportive factors and potential market corrections, emphasizing risk management in their strategies [13]

镍期货市场：美指震荡下跌以美元计价大宗商品受青睐，隔夜伦镍收涨0.13%；伦镍最新收盘报15660 美元/吨，上涨20美元/吨，涨幅为0.13%，成交16136手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍弱势震荡，尾盘大幅收 跌，沪镍主力合约2602最新收报125100元/吨，跌幅为1.47%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月24伦镍库存报255696吨，较前一日库存量增加1092吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2602合约开盘报127500元/吨，较前一日结算价格上涨 540元，9:20分沪镍主力合约最新收报124010元/吨，跌2950元；沪期镍开盘高开低走，盘面维持弱势震 荡；年末市场呈现典型的跨年特征，港股假期休市使得交投阶段性清淡，北向资金暂停也削弱了短期流 动性。机构调仓与获利了结意愿增强，推动部分资金从前期涨幅较大的科技成长板块流向估值相对较 低、防御属性较强的蓝筹品种。与此同时，多家上市公司披露减持计划，引发市场对部分热门标的估值 压力的担忧，进一步强化了资金的避险心态，抑制市场投机需求。镍自身过剩及高库存压制震荡下跌。 供需端及产业链现状 当前镍市运行的核心逻辑仍围绕供需失衡与高库存压力展开。印 ...

Group 1 - Silver is entering 2026 with a significant transformation, having broken through $55 per ounce by the end of 2025 and establishing a solid base in the $50-54 range, marking a nearly 150% increase for the year [1] - The recent surge in silver prices, reaching a historical high of $72.68 per ounce, indicates a structural supply-demand imbalance that is intensifying [1] - China, as a crucial physical hub for silver, is experiencing noticeable supply tightness, with exchange inventories dropping to their lowest levels in a decade following record exports [1] Group 2 - The global impact of China's declining reserves is immediate, occurring against a backdrop of a structural deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with ground inventories decreasing and mine supply not responding quickly enough [1] - Most of the new production is not expected to materialize until after 2027-2028 [1] - In the short term, paper silver prices are showing a sideways trend, with support levels at 15.5-15.80 and resistance levels at 16.00-16.50 [2]

过去几周，白银抛物线般的上涨行情无疑引人注目——随着现货白银价格周三升破72美元，银价在今年已经翻了一倍多，比2022 年时17美元的低点价格更是高出了逾三倍。 从历史上看，当前银价的飙升与下图所示的两次先前的历史性跳涨几乎如出一辙，甚至这一回的疯牛行情要更为猛烈。 金融危机后的白银飙升 我们先来看距离我们目前更近的那一次白银史诗级大牛行情——随着2008年金融危机的动荡在2009年开始缓解，白银价格开启了 一轮500%的涨势，在两年内从8.50美元上涨至50.00美元。美联储对危机的过度货币反应，加上严重的投机，为白银市场创造了一 场完美风暴。 在金融危机期间，美联储史无前例地将利率降至零、推出量化宽松政策(QE)并实施了一系列货币救助。由此导致实际利率（经通 胀调整后）跌入负值区间。下图就显示了，2年期美国国债实际收益率如今在2009年的急剧下挫，并持续走低至2011年中期…… 白银价格的上涨当时恰与实际收益率的下降同步。这种由实际收益率反映的货币政策扭曲，使白银受益——因为白银往往被投资 者视为对冲极端货币政策行为的高贝塔工具。 尽管货币环境利好此轮白银涨势，但供需失衡同样推高了价格。白银供给弹性较低， ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged to a historical high due to supply shortages and resilient demand, with spot prices reaching $2,355.61 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 23% in the past week and nearly 150% year-to-date [1][3]. Supply Factors - South Africa, the main producer of platinum, is facing structural issues such as power shortages and aging infrastructure, leading to a 13% year-on-year decline in platinum group metal production in Q1 2023. It is projected that production will decrease by 6% in 2025 [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a third consecutive year of global platinum market shortages in 2025, with a potential shortfall of 30 tons [3]. Demand Factors - The demand for platinum is being bolstered by increased usage in traditional automotive catalysts and the growth of the hydrogen energy sector. Despite the rise of electric vehicles, the number of existing and newly added fuel vehicles remains substantial, leading to increased platinum usage per vehicle due to stricter emission regulations [3]. - The decision by Europe to relax the 2035 ban on fuel vehicles further strengthens the demand outlook for platinum in the automotive sector [3]. - The hydrogen energy industry is opening new growth avenues for platinum, as it is an essential catalyst in fuel cells and water electrolysis, with significant long-term price support expected [3]. Investment Trends - The rising gold prices have led to a "substitution effect," with platinum becoming a more attractive option for consumers and investors, resulting in a notable increase in demand [4]. - The WPIC projects a 7% year-on-year increase in platinum jewelry demand to 67 tons by 2025, the highest level since 2018, and a 6% increase in investment demand to 23 tons [4]. - China is expected to be a key driver of platinum bar and coin demand, with a projected 47% year-on-year increase to 16 tons by 2025, marking a four-year high [4]. Market Dynamics - The recent rise in platinum leasing rates indicates a tight supply in the spot market, pushing industrial users to buy directly rather than borrow, which contributes to upward pressure on spot prices [4]. - Other precious metals, including gold, silver, and palladium, have also shown strong performance, with gold surpassing $4,500 per ounce and silver reaching historical highs [4]. Macro Factors - The current bull market for precious metals is supported by expectations of macroeconomic easing, tight spot supply, and resilient demand, with a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields reducing the holding costs for precious metals [6]. - The ongoing competition for key resources globally is leading to a rebalancing of pricing for money and resources, with platinum and palladium being part of this dynamic [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the strong momentum for platinum is likely to continue due to persistent supply-demand tightness and the expanding industrial demand from the hydrogen sector [6]. - However, the sustainability of platinum and palladium prices will depend on key variables such as leasing rates, macroeconomic conditions, and the speed of supply recovery [7]. - Despite tight supply, there remains a significant amount of above-ground inventory, which could act as a buffer against potential price declines [7].