2025年全球金融市场迎来重磅变量——日本央行在12月将政策利率上调至0.75%，创下三十年以来新 高，彻底告别了长期超宽松货币环境。这场被市场预判概率高达85%的加息操作，源于日本核心CPI连 续50个月突破2%目标、日元贬值濒临红线的双重压力，看似是日本的内部政策调整，却在全球经济紧 密联动的背景下引发蝴蝶效应。对中国而言，这波加息不仅冲击着A股、汇率等金融市场，还通过大宗 商品、贸易链条间接影响到畜牧业等实体产业。结合2025年权威数据和市场动态，今天就拆明白这波加 息对中国的具体影响，以及相关领域该如何应对。 金融市场：短期扰动不改长期逻辑，板块分化明显 日本加息对中国金融市场的影响主要通过资金流动、汇率传导和情绪扩散三条路径，整体呈现"短期波 动、中长期结构性分化"的特征。 - 资金流动方面：日元长期是全球套息交易的核心融资货币，约1万亿美元级套息盘在加息后借贷成本 上升，可能引发平仓潮，部分北向资金（日元套息盘占比不足5%）阶段性撤离A股，2025年4月日本加 息后就曾出现北向单周流出180亿的情况，短期冲击外资重仓的消费白马和高估值科技股。 - 汇率与资产定价方面：中日10年期国债收益率在202 ...

短期震动难改长期基本面 哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊最近搅动全球金融市场的日元加息。 咱先复盘下2024年到2025年初的三次日元加息，这走势简直像给现在的市场提前演了场预演，而且每次 修复速度还和美联储政策松紧绑在一起，2024年两次加息赶上美联储降息，所以市场回血都贼快。 日元加息这事儿最近算是捅了全球金融市场的马蜂窝，前有三次加息的历史行情可鉴，后有当下的流动 性变局待解，普通投资者想躲坑还真得扒开细节好好琢磨。 但很多人没注意，日元长期低息甚至负利率，早就成了全球影子货币，还撑起了万亿级的套息交易，成 了不少高风险资产的资金来源。 2024年3月19日，日本央行把利率从-0.1%调到0至0.1%区间，加息头几天纳斯达克指数还挺稳甚至微 涨，结果两天后就开始连跌，不过后来还是爬起来创了新高。 同年7月31日那次加息最猛，利率直接提到0.25%，日经指数当天就暴跌超12%，累计跌了近20%。同期 纳斯达克也跌了近10%，但俩指数后来都很快修复还刷了新高。 到2025年1月24日，利率涨到0.5%，纳斯达克只大跌3%就反弹了，不过之后一直萎靡震荡，直到3到4月 特朗普政府搞出史诗级关税风波，全球市场都被带 ...

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近，日本央行行长放了话，将提高日本利率，从0.5%上升到0.75%。 并且还说，希望在利率升至0.75%后，进一步阐明未来的加息路径。 换句话说，日本这是要 持续的加息了。为什么日本在这个时候加息呢？他们不是声称提振经济吗？加息怎么提振经济？ 一、不可能三角 这个世界上有很多不可能三角，正所谓鱼和熊掌不可兼得。今年早些时候，日本就计划要通过扩张财政来提振经济。财政扩张就意味着日本政府要 大规模举债。 我们知道日本政府的债务规模可一点不小！继续扩张债务规模，一定会让市场担心日本政府能不能如期还钱。 也就是说，当债务规模过大时， 主权信用就会受到影响。反映到国债利率上就会持续上升，现在日本长债利率已经是迭创新高了。 这就会使得日本政府未来要偿还的利息越来越多！ 日本政府就不想降低国 ...

日本债市风暴正愈演愈烈，令全球金融市场陷入紧张氛围。 随着市场对日本央行12月加息的预期急剧升温，日本国债收益率全线飙升至数十年来的高点。今日最新行情显示，日本30年期国债收益率上行 2.5个基点，至3.445%，创下历史新高。 20年期国债收益率上行3个基点至2.94%，为1999年6月以来的最高水平。作为关键基准的10年期国债收益率也上升1.5个基点至1.905%，是2007年 以来首次触及该水平。 市场的紧张情绪即将迎来直接考验。日本财务省计划于今日出售约7000亿日元的30年期国债。瑞穗证券首席策略师Shoki Omori表示，预计此次 拍卖的需求将"略显疲软"，这无疑为本已脆弱的市场增添了新的不确定性。 此轮债市剧震的根源，直指市场对日本央行货币政策即将转向的强烈预期。行长植田和男的最新表态，已将12月加息的可能性从十天前的20%推 高至80%。市场担忧，在圣诞假期前流动性枯竭的背景下，任何政策意外都可能被放大，其冲击波或将迅速传导至全球，对美股等风险资产构成 潜在威胁。 鹰派信号引爆加息预期 许多交易员对2022年圣诞节前的市场动荡记忆犹新。当时，日本央行同样在12月会议上意外调整收益率曲线控制（ ...

Price Surge - The spot silver price reached a historic high of $58.8 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 100%, significantly outpacing gold's approximately 60% rise [1][3] - Gold also saw a notable increase, reaching $4264 per ounce, the highest in six weeks [1][3] - The gold-silver ratio has approached 70, the lowest since August 2021, indicating a strong performance of silver relative to gold [3] Supply Constraints - The primary factor supporting the surge in silver prices is a persistent supply shortage, with global silver inventories at a near 10-year low and experiencing a supply deficit for five consecutive years [5] - Silver stocks in London have decreased from 31,023 tons in June 2022 to 22,126 tons in March 2025, a decline of approximately one-third [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory has also reached its lowest level in nearly a decade, exacerbating supply tightness [5] Demand Explosion - In contrast to the supply side, silver demand is experiencing a multifaceted surge, particularly in India, the largest consumer of silver, with an annual consumption of about 4000 tons [7] - Indian silver prices have soared to a historical high of 170,415 rupees per kilogram, reflecting an 85% increase since the beginning of the year [7] - Industrial demand for silver is growing significantly due to factors such as the electrification of vehicles, expansion of the AI industry, and increased demand for photovoltaics [7] Financial Attributes - Silver's financial characteristics are also playing a crucial role in its price surge, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies [9] - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to 85% due to soft U.S. economic data and dovish comments from officials [9] - Concerns over macroeconomic risks from Japan, including potential interest rate hikes, have led to fears of forced unwinding of carry trades, further impacting silver prices [9] Gold Linkage - The strong performance of silver is closely tied to the gold market, with global gold demand reaching 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, marking the highest trading volume for Q1 since 2016 [11] - China's gold investment demand surged, with gold bar and coin investments rising to 124 tons, a 48% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 12% year-on-year increase [11] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net increase of 244 tons in official gold reserves in Q1 2025, marking the 16th consecutive year of net gold purchases [11] Logical Transformation - The traditional pricing logic of gold is undergoing a fundamental change, with the correlation between gold prices and real U.S. interest rates weakening since 2022 [13] - The driving force behind rising gold prices is now the unprecedented scale of central bank gold purchases, averaging 1073 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for 23% of global gold demand [13] - This shift is influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar, repositioning gold as a strategic monetary anchor and a hedge against geopolitical risks [13] Institutional Forecasts - In response to the strong surge in silver prices, several institutions have raised their price forecasts, with UBS predicting silver prices could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, and Solomon Global suggesting it may exceed $100 per ounce [15] - Market participants are showing optimism, as the cost differential between bullish and bearish silver options has surged to the highest level since 2022, indicating strong expectations for price increases [15] - The recent price movements are driven by speculation, attracting more capital into the silver market [15]

本周，日本央行行长上田和夫明确表示，日本央行将在12月的政策会议上综合评估加息的利弊，这是迄今位置最明确的加息信号。他在随后的新闻发布会上 也指出，一旦利率上调至0.75%，央行将进一步阐释未来加息路径，同时12月的政策决策也将考虑工资及其他经济数据。 道明证券（TD Securities)的外汇策略主管Jayati Bharadwaj称："日本央行似乎对加息表现出更大的舒适度。我们预计他们将在12月实际加息，这也让我们更 接近此前的判断，同时提振了日元。" 10月通胀走高，为央行加息提供支撑 根据日本在11月份公布的最新数据，日本在10月的核心通胀率高达3%。为今年7月以来的最大涨幅。剔除生鲜食品和能源的核心通胀率则上升至3.1%，环比 上扬0.1%。 在通胀数据公布后，市场对日元波动的担忧就不断积聚。日本高级官员多次发声，表达对汇率快速单边波动的关注。日本财政大臣片山皋月表示，近期日元 市场出现"单边且急剧"的波动，不排除可能采取干预措施。数据显示，截至11月，美元兑日元汇率已累计上涨约2.19%，过去半年内累计上涨9.52%。 作为全球最后的超级宽松政策提供者，日本金融环境的收紧来得比市场预期更快、更猛 ...

全球市场正密切关注日本，一场由财政政策引发的风暴正在酝酿。你是否也感受到，当下的投资环境愈 发充满挑战？ 让我们先将目光聚焦于日本。近期，日本金融市场遭遇罕见的抛售潮，债券和日元同时面临严峻的考 验。这不仅仅是简单的市场波动，更是投资者对日本经济深层风险的集体担忧，足以引发全球投资者的 不安。 这场风暴的导火索，是日本政府史无前例的财政扩张。为了刺激经济，日本官方宣布2025财年将追加高 达21.3万亿日元的财政预算，创下历史新高。然而，这一看似积极的举措，却适得其反，点燃了市场的 恐慌情绪，投资者纷纷抛售日债和日元。 经济数据的疲软，无疑加剧了市场的担忧。数据显示，日本第三季度GDP环比下降0.4%，同比更是大 幅下跌1.8%，为六个季度以来的首次萎缩。这不仅暴露了日本经济的脆弱性，也让人们对财政刺激的 效果产生了质疑。 要知道，日本政府债务占比早已远超国际警戒线。如今，继续依赖借贷来实施大规模财政刺激，无疑让 市场对日本的财政可持续性产生了深深的忧虑。 业内专家一针见血地指出："日本财政政策的强刺激，叠加疲软的经济数据，导致债券市场抛压巨大。 国债利率飙升将大幅增加政府的借款成本，进一步扩大财政赤字。" ...

在日本央行行长植田和男12月1日暗示本月晚些时候可能加息后，日本国债收益率大幅上涨，从美国到 欧洲以及亚洲其他地区的全球主权债券收益率也纷纷走高，全球债券市场迎来抛售潮。 日本央行上一次加息还要追溯到今年1月，当时利率从0.25%上调至0.5%，日本借贷成本达到17年来的 最高水平。植田和男本周意外表示，日本央行将在12月19日结束的政策会议上"权衡利弊"，考虑是否提 高政策利率。 这场来自日本的债市波澜也迅速引发了全球债券市场的抛售潮，波及美国、澳大利亚、新西兰、法国、 意大利、希腊市场上的债券交易。美国10年期国债收益率大幅攀升至4.1%附近。 市场正严阵以待，美联储本月大概率降息，而日本央行或加息，2024年8月日元套息交易平仓引发的市 场巨震会否重演？ 日本12月会加息吗？ 市场原以为日本央行可能在日本新任首相高市早苗的施压下暂缓加息。但随着植田和男意外表示，将在 下次会议深入讨论加息可能性，许多机构开始修正观点。 植田和男认为，随着日本近期与特朗普政府达成贸易协议，日本经济前景已有所改善。随着美国关税影 响的不确定性逐渐消退，日本央行的经济和物价预测目标得以实现的可能性正在增加。这番表态表明， 日本 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, leading to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields and a global bond market sell-off [1][2] - The last interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan occurred in January, raising rates from 0.25% to 0.5%, marking the highest borrowing costs in 17 years [1] - Market expectations are shifting as many institutions revise their views on the likelihood of a December rate hike following Ueda's unexpected comments [1][3] Group 2 - Ueda believes that Japan's economic outlook has improved, particularly after a trade agreement with the Trump administration, which reduces uncertainty from U.S. tariffs [2] - The current negative real interest rates in Japan mean that even with a rate hike, borrowing costs will remain low, effectively just easing the monetary policy rather than tightening it [2] - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan is under pressure to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy, with Ueda's comments seen as a signal to test market reactions [2][3] Group 3 - A December rate hike is considered highly probable, with estimates exceeding 70%, driven by the closing window for policy timing rather than an overheating economy [3] - Japan's core inflation has stabilized above 2% for several months, and wage growth is showing positive momentum, increasing the necessity for a rate hike [3] - The Bank of Japan's potential shift to a more hawkish stance could have significant implications for global markets, as it would be the last major central bank to abandon ultra-loose policies [2][3] Group 4 - The anticipated rate hike has already led to a "double whammy" in the Japanese market, with both stocks and bonds facing downward pressure [4] - If the Bank of Japan raises rates, it will confirm a new structural uptrend in Japanese government bond yields, impacting both short and long-term rates [4][5] - The immediate reaction in the currency market is expected to be a strengthening of the yen, with projections suggesting a potential drop in the USD/JPY exchange rate to the 135-140 range [5] Group 5 - The shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy in Japan could lead to a tightening of global financial conditions, affecting risk assets and potentially leading to a re-evaluation of leveraged positions in various markets [7][8] - The rise in Japanese bond yields may prompt a withdrawal of funds from U.S. investments, increasing the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses [7] - Concerns are raised about the impact of rising Japanese rates on global debt levels, particularly in high-debt economies, which could lead to a more pronounced risk premium in long-term rates [8] Group 6 - The potential for a "carry trade" unwind due to rising Japanese rates could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly affecting emerging markets and high-valuation growth stocks [9] - Unlike previous market shocks, the current environment is characterized by a more prepared market, with less extreme leverage and a gradual approach to rate hikes [9] - The overall expectation is for a moderate deleveraging process rather than a systemic crisis, with a focus on managing risks associated with currency mismatches and leveraged positions [9]

再创收盘历史新高 贵金属方面，市场对美联储本月降息预期升温的同时，也更加看好"鸽派"的白宫国家经济委员会主任哈 西特被提名为下任美联储主席的前景。外界预计，一旦哈西特出任美联储主席，美联储将在明年继续推 进宽松货币政策，国际金价周一上涨，并升至六周来的高位。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月交割 的黄金期价收于每盎司4274.8美元，涨幅为0.47%。 12月1日白银期价上涨 来源：南国今报 当地时间周一（12月1日），市场对美联储12月降息的预期仍在升温，同时，随着美日利息差收窄，大 量套息交易资金逐步平仓日本海外头寸，加剧全球风险资产价格下跌风险。此外，周一公布的最新数据 显示，美国11月供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为48.2，低于预期，并连续第9个月陷入萎 缩区间，令市场谨慎看待美国经济基本面，投资者情绪受到打压，美国三大股指周一集体收跌。截至收 盘，道指跌0.90%，标普500指数跌0.53%，纳指跌0.38%。 12月1日国际金价升至六周来高位 此外，白银期价周一延续上周涨势，并再创收盘历史新高。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年3月交割的 白银期价收于每盎司59.142美元，涨幅为3.46% ...