Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, highlighting the performance of various sectors and the impact of geopolitical events on commodity prices, particularly gold and oil [4]. Market Performance - As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3382.14 points, down 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component is flat at 10163.07 points, and the ChiNext Index is at 2054.48 points, down 0.14%. Over 3000 stocks in the market are in the red [1]. - The stablecoin theme continues to gain traction, with solid-state batteries, oil and gas, and AI wearable concept stocks being active. In contrast, sectors like IP economy, gold, innovative drugs, computing power, and low-altitude economy are experiencing pullbacks [1]. Sector Analysis - The brain-computer interface sector shows a significant increase of 6.29%, while the battery sector rises by 2.46%. Conversely, the film and television sector declines by 1.62%, and the digital currency sector decreases by 1.84% [2]. - The home appliance sector has seen a cumulative increase of 1.9% from January to May 2025, ranking 12th among sub-industries. The sector is characterized by a recovery in domestic sales and challenges in exports [4]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has heightened geopolitical risks, leading to short-term increases in gold and oil prices. Historical data suggests that such geopolitical events primarily serve as catalysts for short-term price movements rather than long-term trends [4]. - The article emphasizes that the main drivers of gold prices are actual interest rates and global uncertainty, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [4].

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-17 原油价格并未进一步走高 黄金陷入震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，据华尔街日报，中东和欧洲的官员说，伊朗一直在紧急发出信号，表示它寻求结束敌对状态，恢复有关其 核项目的谈判，并通过阿拉伯中间人向以色列和美国发出了信息。这些官员说，在以色列猛烈的空袭中，德黑兰 对阿拉伯官员说，只要美国不加入空袭，他们愿意重返谈判桌。周末发生的地缘政治冲突数据并未祸及霍尔莫斯 海峡的运输，而原油价格也并未进一步走高，同时美联储对于降息的态度仍然偏谨慎，美元逐步企稳。故黄金价 格昨日出现回落。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-16，沪金主力合约开于 798.40元/克，收于 792.30元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.26%。当日成交量为 228842手，持仓量为 176263手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 792.68 元/克，收于 785.78 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 下降1.37%。 2025-06-16，沪银主力合约开于 8801元/千克，收于 8858元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 571364手，持仓量 412329手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,864 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the CPI in May remains at -0.1%, reflecting a trend of negative growth in consumer prices for four out of the first five months of the year, with the market closely monitoring price trends as a key macroeconomic variable [2][3] - The PPI in May shows a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous month's decline of 2.7%, indicating a worsening trend in producer prices [2] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to falling energy and food prices, with vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year and energy prices decreasing by 6.1%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [2] Group 2 - The current price level is described as stable yet weak, with ongoing negative growth potentially having adverse effects on macroeconomic growth, leading to delayed consumer spending on major purchases and increased corporate inventory [4] - The downward trend in prices is causing actual interest rates to rise, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1%, resulting in a real interest rate of 1.05%, which may discourage private sector leverage [5] - The central bank's recent interest rate cuts aim to support the real economy and encourage investment and consumption, particularly in the real estate sector, but persistent price declines may weaken the effectiveness of these policies [6] Group 3 - To enhance price levels, it is essential to promote consumption, and addressing policy bottlenecks that affect consumer spending is crucial [7]

日本央行行长植田和男：日本的实际利率仍然处于深度负值。 ...

技术上，纽期金、银呈现突破态势，前者站上3400美元，后者逼近年内高点。 策略上，黄金配置、投机多单头寸持有为主。 消息面上，2026年票委、达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，由于劳动力市场稳定、通胀略高于目标以及前景不 明朗，美联储正在密切关注一系列数据，以判断可能需要采取何种应对措施。2025年票委、芝加哥联储 主席古尔斯比表示，在关税政策带来的不确定性消散之后，美联储可以继续降息。俄乌第二轮谈判草草 结束，双方关于止战条件分歧依然巨大。经济数据方面，美国5月ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5，预期 49.5；连续三个月萎缩。美国4月核心PCE物价指数年率2.52%，为去通胀进程启动以来最低，月率小幅 回升至0.12%，为年内次低水平。名义利率回升幅度超盈亏平衡通胀率，实际利率小幅回升对黄金压力 增强。短端美德利差开始走阔对美元支撑增强。 资金面上，金银配置资金同时增持，截至6月3日，SPDR持仓933.07吨（+2.86吨），iShares持仓 14351.82吨（+48.07吨）。金银投机资金同时流出，前者连续6日减持，CME公布5月30日数据，纽期金 总持仓40.88万手（-13818手）；纽期银总持仓14.7 ...

黄金，作为亘古不变的"金融避风港"，其价格波动始终与全球经济脉搏紧密相连。其中，美国通胀指数 是影响黄金走势的核心变量之一。投资者想要把准市场风向，密切关注通胀指数的波动趋势与政策联动 效应是很有必要的。那么，如何理解这些指数与黄金的关系？投资者又该如何借助专业平台捕捉数据行 情？今天，领峰贵金属将与大家一起揭晓美国通胀指数的奥秘，以及我们应如何借助这股东风在黄金投 资中乘风破浪。 一、美国三大通胀指数：黄金市场的"晴雨表" 通胀数据的每一次波动，都可能触动黄金市场敏感神经。作为美联储政策调整的核心依据，CPI、PPI、 PCE三大指数不仅映射着美国经济的冷热交替，更通过复杂的传导机制，改写黄金的定价逻辑。这些数 据的细微变化，或是政策转向的"预警信号"，或是市场情绪的"催化剂"，唯有深入剖析其内在关联，投 资者方能穿透数据迷雾，捕捉黄金市场的真实动向。 1.消费者物价指数(CPI) CPI是美国劳工统计局发布的，反映一篮子消费品和服务价格变化的指标。它直接关联民众生活成本， 是衡量通胀水平的常用指标。例如，当CPI数据持续攀升，意味着货币购买力下降，生活成本上升，市 场通胀压力增大。 2.生产者物价指数(P ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the bond market and the potential for an "asset shortage" in 2025, with a focus on government and non-government financing dynamics [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Bond Issuance**: - In the first five months of 2025, government bond issuance accelerated, with general government bonds reaching 1.9 trillion, accounting for approximately 40% of the annual plan, compared to 30% in the same period of 2024 [3][4]. - Local government bonds totaled 3.7 trillion, exceeding half of the annual quota, indicating a significant increase from previous years [3][4]. 2. **Non-Government Financing Trends**: - Non-government financing has been contracting, with a notable decrease in credit growth in the first quarter of 2025, adding only 280 billion, a significant drop year-on-year [5]. - The demand for non-government financing is influenced by actual profit levels, with rising costs and declining prices leading to reduced borrowing needs [5][6]. 3. **Impact of Price Declines**: - The downward pressure on prices has led to an increase in real interest rates, further suppressing the demand for non-government debt [6][10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing significant declines, which are expected to continue, impacting overall market liquidity [5][6]. 4. **Role of Household Savings**: - Household savings are flowing into broad fixed-income assets, providing stable support for the bond market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2% in March 2025 [7]. - This inflow is crucial as it offsets the potential decline in government bond supply and supports the overall demand for fixed-income assets [7][10]. 5. **Central Bank's Monetary Policy**: - The central bank is primarily supporting government bond issuance but shows limited willingness to actively inject funds [8][9]. - A significant increase in fiscal deposits suggests that funds will be gradually allocated, potentially leading to a passive easing scenario similar to Q3 2022 [9]. 6. **Potential for Asset Shortage**: - The combination of slowing asset supply and stable or increasing demand could lead to a re-emergence or intensification of asset shortages in the bond market [10]. - The market is transitioning from discussions of "liability shortages" to concerns about "asset shortages," driven by the dynamics of government bond issuance and non-government financing [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of leveraging short-term positions and extending duration on long-term bonds, particularly starting in mid-June 2025, to capitalize on potential opportunities in Q3 [11]. - The expectation is that the yield on 10-year government bonds may drop to a low of 1.4% to 1.5% within the year [11].

SHMET 网讯： 在周四的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分"，包括通胀目标和就业"缺口"的处理方式。随着经济和政策不断变 动，长期利率可能会走高。 鲍威尔表示，较高的实际利率可能反映了未来通胀可能比2010年代间歇期更加波动的可能性，称"供应冲击"将"更频繁且可能更持久"，这对经济和央行来说 是一个困难的挑战。然而，华尔街日报知名记者、"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，这实际上与美联储目前设定利率的方式关系不大。 重新评估"缺口"概念：不再过度关注就业 2020年框架已不适用 当地时间周四，鲍威尔在美联储托马斯·劳巴赫(Thomas Laubach)研究会议上表示，美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的 重大变化。 他表示，2020年制定的政策框架是基于当时持续低利率和低通胀的环境，但当下经济条件已发生显著变化。 我们将确保新的共识声明能够适应广泛的经济环境和发展。 特别值得注意的是，鲍威尔明确指出"零利率下限约束不再是基础情景。"他表示，2020年疫情之后，通胀调整后的"实际"利率上升，可能会影响美联储当前 框架的要素。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its overall policy framework in response to significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the COVID-19 pandemic [1][2] Group 1: Policy Framework Review - The Federal Reserve's current framework was adopted five years ago and is under review, which is unlikely to affect current interest rate settings [1] - The review process is expected to be completed by August or September, with input from leading policy theorists on potential changes [1] - The higher inflation-adjusted interest rates post-pandemic may render some elements of the current framework less applicable [1][2] Group 2: Inflation Targeting and Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve established a 2% inflation target in 2012, but concerns arose about the ability to stimulate growth in a low global interest rate environment [2] - The framework adopted in 2020 included a "compensatory" strategy allowing for moderate inflation above the 2% target, which is to be reviewed every five years [2] - The economic reopening post-pandemic has led to inflation reaching 6% in November 2021, driven by strong demand and supply chain disruptions, which was not anticipated in the 2020 framework [2][3] Group 3: Public Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The current review aims to address the shortcomings of the 2020 framework, particularly its lack of resilience to broad economic outcomes [3] - The core ideas of the framework, including the 2% inflation target, are likely to be retained, emphasizing the importance of public confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain low and stable inflation [3] - Public belief in the return of inflation rates to pre-pandemic levels is crucial for achieving recent declines in inflation without a significant rise in unemployment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite a slight increase in U.S. retail sales in April, the growth rate has significantly slowed, raising concerns about consumer spending stability in the coming months [1][3] - April retail sales recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 0%, with the previous value revised from 1.4% to 1.5% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April showed a year-on-year rate of 2.4%, below the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%, marking the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest since September of the previous year [1][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks following the data release emphasized the need to reconsider strategies regarding employment and average inflation rates, reflecting significant changes in the economic environment since 2020 [3][4] - Powell indicated that the actual interest rates adjusted for inflation have risen, which may impact the current framework of the Federal Reserve, suggesting a potential shift towards more frequent and persistent supply shocks [4] - The Federal Reserve is currently evaluating its policy framework, which is unlikely to affect the current interest rate setting, with results expected to be announced by August or September [3][4]