Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, surpassing $1,000 per ounce in March 2008, $2,000 in August 2020, and reaching over $3,000 in March 2025[2][18] - The average production cost of gold increased by 45% from $1,003 per ounce in Q4 2020 to $1,456 in Q3 2024, while gold prices rose by 32% during the same period[6][30] - Investment demand for gold reached 42.1% of total demand in Q1 2025, up from an average of 29.1% from 2010 to 2024[4][22] Group 2: Demand Sources - The four main sources of gold demand are jewelry (43.7%), central bank purchases (23.6%), investment (25.7%), and technology (7.1%) as of 2024[4][19] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of global mine production[4][24] - Gold jewelry demand averaged 49.6% of total demand from 2010 to 2024, making it the largest source of gold consumption[4][19] Group 3: Economic Influences - Actual interest rates are a key driver of gold price fluctuations; as rates rise, gold becomes less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets[7][35] - The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023, totaling 525 basis points, which pressured gold prices down from $2,050 to $1,820 per ounce[7][35] - Global debt levels reached approximately $324 trillion in Q1 2025, with a $7.5 trillion increase in just three months, raising concerns about economic stability and boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven[10][50] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Market liquidity significantly impacts gold prices; increased liquidity typically raises gold demand, while tightening liquidity can lead to price declines[8][40] - In August 2020, gold prices exceeded $2,000 per ounce due to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing measures during the pandemic[8][40] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2019, reflecting a growing trend towards gold accumulation[11][54]

Report Summary Key Points - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the US House of Representatives, and President Trump will sign it on Saturday morning. The bill will cut medical and food safety net programs and cancel dozens of green energy incentives, increasing the US debt by $3.4 trillion to $36.2 trillion [1]. - On July 3, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.30%, with a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day, and the 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.47%, down 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. - For the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market on July 3, 2025, the gold trading volume was 31,568 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the silver trading volume was 585,448 kg, up 12.30% from the previous trading day [7]. Market Data Futures Market - On July 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 779.02 yuan/gram and closed at 781.28 yuan/gram, up 0.68% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 189,582 lots, and the open interest was 175,461 lots. The night - session closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, down 0.40% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 3, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,784 yuan/kg and closed at 8,944 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 427,766 lots, and the open interest was 272,055 lots. The night - session closed at 8,926 yuan/kg, up 0.67% from the afternoon close [2]. Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2502 contract on July 3, 2025, long positions changed by - 52 lots, and short positions changed by - 66 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 267,542 lots, down 11.96% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 601 lots, and short positions increased by - 523 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 923,327 lots, down 47.09% from the previous trading day [4]. ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 947.966 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 14,868.74 tons, up 22.62 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Arbitrage Tracking - On July 3, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 0.14 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 733.00 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 87.35, down 1.54% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 91.57, with a change of - 0.93% from the previous trading day [6]. Strategies - **Gold**: Cautiously bullish. In the short - term, it is recommended to buy low and sell high between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. In the medium - to - long - term, start to lightly build long - term positions from the 760 yuan/gram level [8]. - **Silver**: Cautiously bullish. Temporarily buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range recommended between 8,640 yuan/kg and 8,660 yuan/kg, and set the stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - **Options**: Put on hold.

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - Bessent believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has deviated in its judgment regarding interest rates [1] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [1] - Bessent indicates that if the Fed does not lower rates soon, the potential cut in September could be larger [1][2] Group 2: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - Bessent did not directly respond to calls for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's resignation but emphasized the need for the Fed to control spending like others [3] - There are strong candidates being considered for Powell's successor, with speculation that Trump may announce a replacement before September or October [3] - Potential candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Larry Kudlow, and Bessent himself, among others [3] Group 3: Rate Expectations and Debt Issuance - Bessent suggests that the Fed officials' rate expectations may be influenced by their appointment backgrounds, noting significant differences in the dot plot between Trump-appointed and non-Trump-appointed members [4] - The Treasury Department plans to significantly increase short-term debt issuance to replenish cash reserves following the increase in the federal debt ceiling [5] - Bessent mentions that the debt management process is systematic and orderly, but they will consider the current interest rate environment in future debt issuance strategies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that the current real interest rates are relatively high, suggesting potential implications for monetary policy and economic activity [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - If the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates now, the potential for a larger rate cut in September is anticipated [1] - By Labor Day in September, various economic activities are expected to "take off," indicating a possible shift in economic momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that the current real interest rates are at a very high level, suggesting that if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates in the upcoming meeting, the potential cut in September could be more significant [1] Group 1 - The current real interest rates in the U.S. are described as being very high [1] - There is speculation that if the Federal Reserve does not implement a rate cut in the next meeting, the reduction in September may be larger than expected [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 参议院通过大而美法案 金价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案（大而美法案），并提交众议院。此外，7月9日的贸易 关税暂停最后期限越来越近，而总统特朗普表示，不考虑延长7月9日关税谈判截止日期。美联储方面，无法断言7 月降息是否为时过早，不排除任何一次会议上采取行动的可能性。经济数据方面，美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升 至去年11月以来最高，交易员略微削减美联储降息预期。昨日黄金价格继续呈现震荡走高格局。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-01，沪金主力合约开于 766.18元/克，收于 776.10元/克，较前一交易日收盘 1.11%。当日成交量为 171739手，持仓量为 167465手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 780.80 元/克，收于 777.10 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.84%。 2025-07-01，沪银主力合约开于 8737元/千克，收于 8810元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 342536手，持仓量 264724手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,802 元/千克， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment has grown as the Israel-Iran conflict eases. The expectation of a looser Fed monetary policy mainly affects risk assets, causing the gold price to fluctuate downward. In the long term, the real interest rate is likely to decline. Gold remains an irreplaceable investment if the expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale persists. For gold, short - term trading can be done by selling high and buying low between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and long - term positions can be lightly established based on the 740 yuan/gram level. For silver, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,640 yuan/kg to 8,660 yuan/kg with a stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US economic data is poor. The Chicago business activity index in June dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, lower than the expected 43.0, the lowest since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic activity contraction. The Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year and three next year. Goldman Sachs advanced its prediction of the Fed rate cut to September. Trump criticized the Fed, and there are speculations about Powell's successor [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 764.10 yuan/gram and closed at 767.58 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 211,285 lots, and the open interest was 155,821 lots. In the night session, it opened at 766.18 yuan/gram and closed at 768.98 yuan/gram, up 0.54% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,716 yuan/kg and closed at 8,762 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,424 lots, and the open interest was 277,702 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,737 yuan/kg and closed at 8,722 yuan/kg, up 0.10% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, with a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.52%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 129 lots and the short positions by 52 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 398,616 lots, up 4.72% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 10 lots and the short positions decreased by 1,436 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 949,707 lots, down 13.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,826.61 tons, down 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On June 30, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 553.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 87.60, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.86, with a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,766 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 487,620 kg, with a change of 2.21% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,240 kg [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex market dynamics of gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, highlighting three distinct phases of price evolution after the last rate increase in July 2024. Group 1: Short-term Volatility Driven by Expectations - Prior to the July 2024 rate hike, gold prices fell from $2468 per ounce to $2380 per ounce, a decline of approximately 3.6% as the market had already priced in the rate increase [3] - Following the rate hike, if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold may rebound quickly; for instance, after Chairman Powell indicated that inflation was under control, gold prices rose to $2420 per ounce within 48 hours, an increase of 1.7% [3] Group 2: Mid-term Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and the Dollar - After the rate hike, changes in real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) become crucial; for example, in March 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.58% to 4.24%, leading to a 12.5% increase in gold prices from 905 yuan per gram to 1018 yuan per gram [4] - Conversely, if inflation expectations decline unexpectedly, rising real interest rates could suppress gold prices; in June 2025, gold prices fell from 1018 yuan per gram to 984 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.3% due to an increase in core PCE inflation expectations to 3% [4] Group 3: Long-term Support from Structural Factors - Central bank gold purchases provide long-term support; in Q1 2025, net gold purchases by central banks reached 289 tons, a year-on-year increase of 62%, with China's gold reserves hitting a record high of 2292 tons [4] - Despite a temporary strengthening of the dollar index post-rate hike, central bank purchases supported a 19% annual increase in gold prices, significantly outperforming the commodity index [4] - Investors should monitor three key signals: the "critical point" of a shift in Federal Reserve policy (e.g., unemployment rate exceeding 4.5%), the correlation between geopolitical risk indices and gold ETF holdings (e.g., a 5-ton increase in gold ETF holdings during Middle East conflicts in June 2025), and the spillover effects of industrial policies like carbon tariffs on precious metals with industrial properties [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) and safe-haven demand, while being influenced by variables such as the US dollar exchange rate, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The market is in a unique phase where high real interest rates suppress gold prices, but safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends support them [2] - The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the timing of potential rate cuts remains contentious [4] - US CPI remains stubbornly above 3%, indicating a slowdown in the disinflation process [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East [4] - In 2023, global central banks net purchased 1,037 tons of gold, marking the second-highest level in history [4] Group 2: Historical Analysis and Patterns - Analyzing the past 20 years of gold price movements reveals key patterns regarding pullback magnitudes and durations [5] - In non-extreme crises, a 20%-25% pullback often indicates a mid-term bottom [7] - Rapid declines (over 15% in 1-3 months) tend to have a high probability of subsequent rebounds [7] - Gold typically begins to form a bottom 6-12 months before a shift in Federal Reserve policy [7] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The long-term upward trend line since 2020 is positioned between $1,850 and $1,900 per ounce [10] - The 200-week moving average support has risen to $1,800, which has never been effectively breached in the past decade [10] - Key Fibonacci retracement levels are at $1,880 (38.2% retracement) and $1,750 (50% retracement in extreme risk scenarios) [10] - Institutional accumulation costs are concentrated in the $1,900 to $1,950 range [10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Aggressive investors may consider starting to accumulate gold if prices drop to $1,900 (approximately 5% decline) [11] - Conservative investors should wait for a breach below $1,850 (10% decline) before entering [11] - Technical signals for entry include a daily RSI below 30 and a close above the 20-day moving average [11] - The global cash cost of gold mining is around $1,300, providing a significant margin of safety below $1,600 [11] Group 5: Tactical and Strategic Opportunities - Tactical opportunities may arise if gold prices fall below $1,900, while a panic sell-off to $1,750 could represent a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity [16] - The ultimate signal for a major upward trend in gold is typically seen within six months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [16] - High-profile institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater suggest that gold could maintain a range of $1,900 to $2,100 under soft landing scenarios, and potentially rise to $2,500 during a recession [16]

应尽早实现日本国债持有量的正常化。 日本的实际利率显著为负。 增强市场吸收冲击的功能至关重要。 日本央行审议委员田村直树：中性利率至少在1%左右。 正密切关注企业在价格和工资方面的行为。 ...