中金研究 中美会谈取得实质性进展，宣布缓解对彼此商品加征的关税。会谈结果好于预期，市场风险偏好明 显回升。短期来看，关税对于美国主要是供给冲击，对于中国主要是需求冲击，经贸会谈结果意味 着美国供给冲击缓解，中国需求冲击减弱。我们测算显示，最新美国有效关税率将从此前的28.4%下 降至15.5%，美国滞胀风险降低。最新关税下，中国出口下行风险得到较大缓解，后续中国国内经济 走势主要看宏观政策力度，尤其是财政政策力度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间5月12日下午3点，中美双方同步发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》[1] [2]。 根据声明内 容，自5月14日起，双方将仅保留对彼此商品加征的10%关税，暂停执行此前加征的24%关税，为期90 天，其余对等关税则全部取消。不过，今年2月和3月美国以芬太尼问题为由对中方额外征收的累计20% 关税并不在此次协议范围内。这意味着在协议实施后，美国对中国商品的关税将从145%降至30%，中 国对美国商品的关税则将从125%降至10%[3]。美国财政部长贝森特在记者会上表示，双方都不希望脱 钩，"我们都希望实现贸易平衡，美国将持续朝这一方向努力"[4]。根据声明，我们测算 ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext 50 Index (399673) has seen a strong increase of 1.96% as of May 12, 2025, with notable gains from stocks such as AVIC Chengfei (302132) up 18.64%, Sungrow Power (300274) up 6.22%, and Lens Technology (300433) up 5.25% [1] - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159682) closely tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, which consists of the 50 stocks with the highest average daily trading volume in the ChiNext market, reflecting the overall performance of well-known, large-cap, and liquid companies [1] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of the ChiNext 50 Index is 4.56, which is below the historical average for over 84.1% of the past five years, indicating a favorable valuation [1] Group 2 - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced full support for the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to play its role as a quasi-stabilization fund and plans to introduce further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext Board [2] - New revised regulations for major asset restructuring management for listed companies will be released, aiming to enhance the role of the capital market in mergers and acquisitions [2] - Investors can access the ChiNext 50 ETF (159682) through off-market connections (A: 017949; C: 017950) to seize investment opportunities [2]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 超配 行 业 深 度 非 银 金 融 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 20% 37% 54% 70% -30% -13% 4% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) [相关研究 table_product] 1.券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 NBV延续高增势头——非银金融行 业周报（20250428-20250504） 2.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 3.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） [Table_NewTitle 引长钱、促长投、兴科技，一揽子金融 ] 政策提振市场预期 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] ——资本市场聚焦（二） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 [相关研究 table_product] 1.券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 NBV延续高增势头——非银金融行 业周报（20250428-20250504） 2.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 3.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） 超配 行 业 深 度 非 银 金 融 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 20% 37% 54% 70% -30% -13% 4% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) [Table_NewTitle 引长钱、促长投、兴科技，一揽子金融 ] 政策提振市场预期 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] ——资本市场聚焦（二） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100 ...

● 本报记者胡雨 北京时间5月8日凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议，面对通胀上升风险有所增加的局面，美联储宣布维持 现有利率水平不变。就在美联储做出上述决定前，中国人民银行、国家金融监管总局、中国证监会三部 门负责人5月7日宣布了一揽子逆周期调节政策，释放稳市场稳预期强信号，受到市场高度关注。 在业内人士看来，美联储当前处于进退两难的境地，难以通过有力的政策手段提振市场对美国资产的信 心；相较之下，我国政府出台利好政策稳经济稳市场的意愿十分明确，中国资产配置吸引力持续提升， 长期看其估值也有望迎来系统性提升。 结合美联储公布利率决议后美联储主席鲍威尔的表态看，其不急于降息而是将继续保持观望的态度，侧 面反映出美国经济当前面临的诸多不确定性。在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，美联储当前处于进 退两难的境地，难以通过有力的政策手段提振市场对美国资产的信心；相较之下，我国政策空间更大， 且政府出台利好政策稳经济稳市场的意愿十分明确，在"信心比黄金更重要"的当下，一系列利好政策有 助于稳定中国经济基本面，对于强化投资者对中国资产长期向好的信心将发挥重要作用。 就在美联储公布最新利率决议之前，在5月7日国新办举行的新闻发布 ...

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5%, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity into the market [1] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1%, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - A structural monetary policy tool rate was reduced by 0.25%, and the personal housing provident fund loan rate was also cut by 0.25% [1] - The central bank will establish a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility to support consumption and elderly care, and increase the re-lending quota for technological innovation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [1][2] Trade Relations - High-level economic talks between China and the U.S. are scheduled in Switzerland, with discussions expected to focus on tariff adjustments and trade relations [3] - The U.S. has shown interest in negotiating tariff measures, which could ease trade tensions and provide a buffer for the global economy [4] Fund Management - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released an action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, including linking management fees to fund performance [5] - The plan aims to improve the reputation of the public fund industry and accelerate the exit of underperforming funds, enhancing overall profitability [6] Logistics Industry - China's logistics industry prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight month-over-month decline [7] - The index reflects a mixed performance across regions, with the western region showing significant recovery while the eastern and central regions experienced a slowdown [8] Mobile Gaming Market - In April, 33 Chinese companies entered the global mobile game revenue top 100, collectively generating $2 billion, accounting for 38.4% of the market [9] - Tencent's flagship game "Honor of Kings" saw a 71% revenue increase, reclaiming the top position in global mobile game revenue [10] Skechers Acquisition - Skechers announced an agreement to be acquired by 3G Capital for approximately $9.4 billion, with the deal expected to close in the third quarter [11] - The acquisition may provide financial support to Skechers amid declining sales in China and rising costs due to trade policies [12] Currency and Trade Dynamics - A potential "avalanche" sell-off of up to $2.5 trillion in U.S. dollars is anticipated as Asian countries reduce their dollar reserves amid escalating trade tensions [13] - The shift in currency dynamics may lead to significant changes in global trade relationships and impact the demand for U.S. dollars [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses a series of financial policies introduced by the Chinese government, focusing on the capital market, macroeconomic stability, and the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Chinese economy [1][2][4]. Core Points and Arguments - **Financial Policy Measures**: China has implemented a range of financial policies, including a 10 basis point reduction in the short-term Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and a 25 basis point decrease in public housing loan rates. The total liquidity released through reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts is 1 trillion yuan [1][2]. - **Support for Capital Markets**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has combined 500 billion yuan in securities fund insurance company swap quotas with 300 billion yuan in stock repurchase loans, totaling 800 billion yuan. This indicates a strong governmental commitment to stabilizing the capital market [1][5]. - **Economic Challenges**: The primary issue facing the Chinese economy is insufficient demand, which necessitates structural monetary policy to stimulate consumption and investment. The government is expected to increase fiscal measures to address this [1][6][11]. - **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: The U.S. tariffs have created demand shocks for China, while the U.S. faces greater economic pressure. The tariffs have led to a decline in China's PMI, particularly in export-related sectors, indicating a weakening global economy [4][8]. - **Capital Market Reforms**: Continuous reforms in the capital market aim to stabilize and activate the market. The focus is on traditional and internet brokerages, asset management institutions, and financial data service providers, which are expected to benefit from these reforms [3][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The macroeconomic outlook suggests that the combination of financial policy adjustments and fiscal measures will help stabilize the economy and achieve a growth target of around 5% [12][11]. - **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with new home sales down 14% year-on-year. However, measures such as lowering mortgage rates are in place to support housing demand [19][20]. - **Insurance Sector Trends**: The insurance sector is facing challenges due to high short-term profit expectations. The new accounting standards may reveal that some high-quality companies have better long-term risk profiles than previously anticipated, presenting investment opportunities [31][33]. - **Public Fund Development**: The action plan for the high-quality development of public funds includes optimizing fee structures and enhancing performance assessments, which is expected to improve investor returns and support the industry’s growth [27][25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the financial policies, economic challenges, and potential investment opportunities within the Chinese market.

Group 1 - The central bank has announced a series of financial policies, including a 0.5% reduction in reserve requirements, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. This marks the 26th consecutive reduction since 2011, indicating limited impact on the stock market [1] - The policy interest rate has been lowered by 0.1%, adjusting the reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is expected to lead to a 0.1% decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) next month. Bloomberg had previously predicted a total interest rate cut of 0.3% and a reserve requirement cut of 1% for the year [1] - The public housing loan interest rate has been reduced by 0.25%, creating room for future reductions in commercial loan rates, with expectations that mortgage rates in China may fall below 3% [1] - The central government plans to support the Central Huijin Investment Company to act as a stabilizing fund, potentially eliminating the need for a dedicated stabilization fund in the future [2] - Additional targeted policy loan quotas have been introduced to support sectors such as technology, consumption, elderly care, and agriculture, although these measures have limited relevance to the stock market [2] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a trading volume of 1.46 trillion yuan, nearing the threshold of 1.5 trillion yuan, with a median market performance increase of 0.39%. The military industry sector saw significant gains, rising nearly 5% [3] - Ongoing conflicts between India and Pakistan have led to speculation about increased military orders for Chinese weapons, boosting the military sector's performance in the stock market [4] - The Chinese central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, adding approximately 2.18 tons in April, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases [4] - Sales of the top 100 real estate companies in China have declined by 6.7% year-on-year in the first four months, despite reports of hot sales in certain markets [4]

金十数据5月7日讯，华创证券首席分析师姚佩表示，本次会议内容可分为两大部分：一是支持实体经 济，二是支持资本市场。针对实体经济的支持包括总量和结构两方面。总量方面，降准降息落地。结构 方面，中国央行在资金投向方面拥有更大的灵活性和指引性，当前更多倾向于科技创新和扩内需。针对 资本市场的支持主要体现在对"平准基金"和中长线资金入市的进一步坚定。姚佩认为，"一行一局一 会"打出组合拳，后续各部委或密集召开新闻发布会，可能形成"一揽子"政策的加速落地。对股市来 说，短期风险偏好的稳定比基本面修复更重要，此刻不必悲观，量比价更重要。过去10个交易日A股日 均成交额1.1万亿元，未来一到两周市场若持续放量，将构建更扎实的底部，带来风险偏好的加强和向 上反弹的信心。 华创证券："一行一局一会"打出组合拳 将带来市场风险偏好的加强 ...

作 者丨崔文静 编 辑丨姜诗蔷 5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，证监 会主席吴清参会并发言。 这是继2 0 2 4年9月后，吴清再次与中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李云 泽共同参加国新办新闻发布会。彼时发布会召开后，A股迎来一波大涨。 此次发布会上，吴清一席发言，为提振资本市场底气和信心，注入十足力量。 "前行路上有风有雨是常态，不管面临的是轻风细雨还是狂风暴雨，是风高浪急还是惊涛骇 浪，我们都完全有条件、有信心、有能力实现中国股市稳定健康发展。"吴清表示。 平准基金，是资本市场韧性的重要支撑。针对平准基金，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表态，将 坚定支持汇金公司在必要时实施对股票市场指数基金的增持，并向其提供充足的再贷款支 持。这意味着，中央汇金具备充足的"资金后盾"，股市平稳提升可期。 资本市场的稳步提升，离不开更多政策的支持。对此，吴清明确将逐步推出四方面政策，包 括发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，修订《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》和 相关监管指引，出台深化科创板、创业板改革政策措施，优化科技创新债券发行注册流程 等。 与此同时，债券市 ...