Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventory has increased significantly, with high imports and actual inventory. The supply in the inland region is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can be supported after the supply in the inland region returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation correction [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the coal - chemical industry is reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for the time being. The non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance in August has decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotation. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is relatively large, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - upstream has slowed down. The northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the daily change in power coal futures was 0, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 27, the South China spot price decreased by 23, the Lunan discounted price remained unchanged, the Southwest discounted price decreased by 35, the Hebei discounted price remained unchanged, the Northwest discounted price remained unchanged, the CFR China price remained unchanged, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, the import profit increased by 5, and the main contract basis and the MTO profit on the disk remained unchanged [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, the North China LL price decreased by 20, the East China LL price remained unchanged, the East China LD price remained unchanged, the East China HD price remained unchanged, the LL US dollar price remained unchanged, the LL US Gulf price remained unchanged, the import profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 27, the basis remained unchanged, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 379 [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Shandong propylene price remained unchanged, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained unchanged, the East China PP price decreased by 35, the North China PP price decreased by 20, the Shandong powder price remained unchanged, the East China copolymer price decreased by 4, the PP US dollar price remained unchanged, the PP US Gulf price remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 32, the basis increased by 10, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1180 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained unchanged, the Shandong caustic soda price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased by 40, the ethylene - based East China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based South China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained unchanged, the import US dollar price (CFR China) remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained unchanged, the North China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained unchanged [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shengjing Micro's financial performance in the first half of 2025 shows steady growth, with revenue and net profit increasing significantly, indicating a positive trend in the company's operations [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shengjing Micro achieved operating revenue of 235 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 57.66% [1]. - The net profit margin improved from 2.01% in the first half of 2024 to 6.60% in 2025, an increase of 4.59 percentage points, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. - The gross profit margin decreased from 36.46% in the first half of 2024 to 34.58% in 2025, a decline of 1.88 percentage points [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 was 0.91%, up by 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Operational Efficiency - Shengjing Micro's inventory turnover days improved to 261.74 days, a reduction of 21.86% compared to the first half of 2024, indicating better inventory management [5]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 50 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a negative 39 million yuan in the same period of 2024, showcasing improved cash flow conditions [5]. - The asset-liability ratio for the first half of 2025 was 11.08%, down by 4.19 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting a more robust financial structure [5]. Institutional Holdings - As of the first half of 2025, the number of institutions holding Shengjing Micro's stock decreased to 10, down from 2,178 in the same period of 2024, indicating a decline in institutional investor confidence [7]. - The company's market capitalization peaked at 6.944 billion yuan on January 29, 2024, while the current market cap stands at 4.183 billion yuan, suggesting a need for a 66.02% increase in stock price to reach its historical high [7]. - Despite the decline in institutional holdings, improvements in profitability and cash flow position the company favorably for future growth [7].

Group 1: Market Challenges and Company Response - The liquor market is under pressure due to multiple factors, including industry cycle fluctuations and tightening macro policies, leading to increased operational challenges [2][3] - The company has actively responded to performance pressures by adjusting strategies, optimizing inventory structure, and promoting transformation [2][3] Group 2: Operational Achievements - Inventory reduction efforts have been successful, with inventory decreasing from CNY 3.259 billion to CNY 2.822 billion, resulting in a 293.7% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow [3] - The asset-liability ratio improved from 54.13% to 41.83%, enhancing the company's ability to withstand cyclical risks [3] Group 3: Cost Control Measures - The company implemented cost reduction strategies, achieving a 40.48% decrease in sales expenses and a 24.81% reduction in management expenses [4] Group 4: Business Development Strategies - The company focused on a customer-centric operational model, enhancing its marketing network through three main store formats: "Hua Zhi Wine Shop," "Hua Zhi Famous Wine Library," and "Hua Zhi Preferred" [5][6] - A service-oriented supply chain platform was established to improve efficiency and quality, catering to diverse consumer needs [6] Group 5: Instant Retail Initiatives - The company launched instant retail services through various platforms, significantly improving consumer shopping efficiency and satisfaction [7] - The integration of online and offline services allows for rapid delivery, meeting immediate consumer demands for social and business occasions [7] Group 6: Organizational and Talent Development - The company emphasized talent development and organizational restructuring to enhance operational efficiency, shifting focus from sales-centric to customer-centric approaches [8][9] Group 7: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, attributed to effective inventory management and supplier collaboration [10][11] - Despite a challenging market, the company aims to increase the sales proportion of famous wines while expanding the premium wine market [12][13]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The current rubber market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short factors intertwined, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 to - 920, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 to - 1035, with a growth rate of 2.36%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 to - 80, with a decline rate of 18.75%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10 to 1130, with a decline rate of 0.88% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%; Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%; India's production increased by 14,700 tons to 62,400 tons, with a growth rate of 30.82%; China's production increased by 6,800 tons to 103,200 tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 to 72.07%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 to 63.09%. In June, domestic tire production decreased by 100% to 0, and tire export volume increased by 6340,000 to 66,650,000, with a growth rate of 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber increased by 10,000 tons to 463,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.21% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of August 18, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 to 619,852, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 to 46,469, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to the low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On August 18, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) increased by 200 to 795, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 to - 20, with a decline rate of 33.33%; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 to - 5, with a growth rate of 50.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 365; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 25 to 20, with a growth rate of 500.00%; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 45 to - 30, with a decline rate of 300.00% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In the monthly data, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. Yunnan's production increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86%. Sichuan's production increased by 11,500 tons to 48,500 tons, with a growth rate of 31.05%. The national开工率 increased by 1.27 to 52.61%, with a growth rate of 2.47%. Xinjiang's开工率 decreased by 11.71 to 52.59%, with a decline rate of 18.21%. Yunnan's开工率 increased by 18.82 to 32.89%, with a growth rate of 133.76%. Sichuan's开工率 increased by 13.39 to 36.96%, with a growth rate of 56.81%. The production of silicone DMC decreased by 9,500 tons to 199,800 tons, with a decline rate of 4.54%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1,000 tons to 625,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.63%. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 12,700 tons to 68,300 tons, with a growth rate of 22.77% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.01 to 11.70 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. The Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.08 to 3.14 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61%. The Sichuan factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 2.26 tons, with a decline rate of 0.88%. The social inventory decreased by 0.20 to 54.50 tons, with a decline rate of 0.37%. The order inventory increased by 0.06 to 25.36 tons, with a growth rate of 0.22%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.26 to 29.15 tons, with a decline rate of 0.87% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and try shorting by buying put options at high prices when the volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On August 18, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 to - 5280, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 460 to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 to - 135, with a growth rate of 27.03%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 30 to 75, with a growth rate of 66.67% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In the weekly data, the silicon wafer production increased by 0.08 to 12.10 GM, with a growth rate of 0.67%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.01 to 2.93 tons, with a decline rate of 0.34%. In the monthly data, the polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.10 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 to 0.08 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 to 0.21 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17%. The net export volume of polysilicon increased by 0.10 to 0.13 tons, with a growth rate of 323.61%. The silicon wafer production decreased by 6.09 to 52.75 GM, with a decline rate of 10.35%. The silicon wafer import volume decreased by 0.01 to 0.07 tons, with a decline rate of 15.29%. The silicon wafer export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.55 tons, with a decline rate of 12.97%. The net export volume of silicon wafer decreased by 0.07 to 0.48 tons, with a decline rate of 12.59%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.12 to 58.54 GM, with a growth rate of 0.21% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.90 to 24.20 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.69 to 19.80 GM, with a growth rate of 3.61%. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 220 to 5,820 hands, with a growth rate of 3.93% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has obvious over - supply. The inventory is in a re - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load adjustment of soda ash plants [5]. - **Glass**: The near - month 09 contract of glass is weak, and the far - month 01 contract fluctuates. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. The glass industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On August 18, the price of glass 2505 decreased by 7 to 1309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53%. The price of glass 2509 decreased by 7 to 1046 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%. The 05 basis increased by 7 to - 159, with a growth rate of 4.22% [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 2 to 1450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14%. The price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 1 to 1293 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.07%. The 05 basis increased by 2 to - 100, with a growth rate of 1.96% [5]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24% to 87.32%. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.7 tons to 76.13 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons. The photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased by 157.9 to 6342.60 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 189.38 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 46.66 tons, with a growth rate of 3.85%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 23.4 days [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%. The growth rate of the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%. The growth rate of the completed area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%. The growth rate of the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Last week, the log futures price showed a weak correction. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On August 18, the 2509 log contract closed at 811 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 to 818.62 yuan [6]. - **Port Shipment and Departure**: In July, the port shipment volume decreased by 2.7 to 173.3 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departure ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national coniferous log total inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 0.65%. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 72,000 cubic meters to 1.854 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 3.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu increased by 55,100 cubic meters to 983,000 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.95% [6]. - **Demand**: As of August 15, the national log daily average shipment volume was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters compared with August 8, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Shandong decreased by 500 cubic meters to 35,900 cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1%. The shipment volume in Jiangsu increased by 600 cubic meters to 23,200 cubic meters, with a growth rate of 3% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

Core Insights - Deere & Company reported mixed third-quarter results, with earnings per share of $4.75, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.67, while quarterly sales declined by 9% to $12.02 billion, exceeding the consensus of $10.31 billion [1] - The company experienced a 16% decrease in production and precision agriculture sales for the quarter, totaling $4.27 billion, attributed to lower shipment volumes and unfavorable price realization [1] - Deere narrowed its fiscal 2025 net income guidance to a range of $4.75 billion to $5.25 billion, down from the previous forecast of $4.75 billion to $5.50 billion, due to cautious customer sentiment amid ongoing uncertainty [2] Stock Performance - Deere shares increased by 1.7%, trading at $486.88 following the earnings announcement [3] - Analysts adjusted their price targets for Deere after the earnings report, with varying opinions on the stock's future performance [3] Analyst Ratings - Oppenheimer analyst Noah Kaye maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $560 to $566 [7] - Truist Securities analyst Jamie Cook maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $619 to $602 [7] - Baird analyst Mircea Dobre maintained a Neutral rating and reduced the price target from $520 to $488 [7]

Group 1 - Company experienced an 8.3% year-on-year decline in revenue, totaling 9.16 billion RMB, due to fluctuating store traffic and increased discounts [1] - Gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 33.5%, while net profit fell by 44% year-on-year to 190 million RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 2.1% [1] - Inventory levels remained healthy, with inventory days at 146, below the target of 150 days, and old inventory accounting for less than 9% [1] Group 2 - Online sales showed robust growth of 16%, with live streaming sales exceeding 100% growth, contributing to 33% of total revenue [2] - The company maintained its offline store count at 3,408, with a net closure of 40 stores, while same-store sales declined by 10% to 20% [2] - The company plans to optimize its product mix and develop proprietary brands, with short-term revenue contribution from these brands at only 2-3% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - LPG: Hold long positions [1] - L: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PP: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and the support from the peak season is weakening. OPEC+ production increase exerts downward pressure. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and improved fundamentals lead to a short - term rebound. Hold long positions [1]. - **L**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, consider buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. Although the downstream demand recovers slowly, the technical bottom provides support. Consider buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still relatively high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [1]. - **PTA**: The spot processing fee is weakening, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [1]. - **MEG**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2]. - **Urea**: The production is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Propylene**: The PDH cost support is weakening, but the supply pressure may ease marginally. The downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 0.61%, Brent rose 1.84%, and SC fell 0.88% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is declining, and the OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure. The oil price still has room to decline, and it may fall to around $60 in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow, but the inventory in the US increased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 14, the PG main contract closed at 3,832 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,420 ( - 10), 4,401 ( + 0), and 4,365 ( + 5) yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, but the fundamentals are good. The basis is high, and the supply and inventory are both decreasing. The short - term rebound is expected [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Focus on the range of [3,850 - 3,950] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,285 yuan/ton, and the North China Ningmei price was 7,290 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [15]. - **Industry News**: The polyethylene market was strong this week. Although the supply was high, the pressure is expected to ease with more maintenance. The demand is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, the fundamentals are expected to improve. Consider buying on dips [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,085 yuan/ton, and the East China drawn wire spot price was 7,056 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry News**: The polypropylene spot price was slightly adjusted this week. The upstream raw materials are expected to be favorable, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited driving force [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. The upstream maintenance is high, and the downstream demand recovers slowly. Consider buying on dips [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,050 - 7,200] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 closed at 4,970 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts increased by 3,239 lots [29]. - **Industry News**: There was no new enterprise maintenance this week. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to be stable [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of [4,900 - 5,100] for V [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 ( - 30) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side changes are limited, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low with increased maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and put options. Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [6,600 - 6,720] for PX [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,670 ( - 15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 closed at 4,684 ( - 4) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply - side maintenance is increasing. The demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakening. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually, buy put options, and pay close attention to the US - Russia Alaska talks. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for TA. Focus on the range of [4,660 - 4,730] for TA [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,456 ( - 19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 closed at 4,384 ( - 12) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. The 8 - month supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively low. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [4,350 - 4,390] for EG [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China methanol spot price was 2,393 ( - 3) yuan/ton, and the methanol main 09 contract closed at 2,383 ( - 5) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and the overseas methanol devices are operating at a high load. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions gradually. The downside space for 01 may be limited. Look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads in batches. Focus on the range of [2,420 - 2,460] for MA [48]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,760 ( - 20) yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,728 ( - 9) yuan/ton [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The urea device operating load is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The cost support exists. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions. Pay attention to the small peak of autumn fertilizer use for urea and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Focus on the range of [1,725 - 1,755] for UR [52]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for asphalt. - **Basic Logic**: The short - term oil price has stabilized but still has room to decline. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for propylene. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong spot price decreased slightly, and the East China spot price increased. The 8 - month propane CP price decreased rapidly, weakening the PDH cost support. The supply pressure may ease marginally, and the downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The absolute price is low. Consider buying on dips.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [8] Core Views - Apple: The apple market is currently in a relatively stable state with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to remain stable. The overall apple spot market is in a dull state, with low inventory levels supporting the price of inventory fruits. The quality of early - maturing fruits is poor, leading to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and inventory fruits. The supply of early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in Shandong will be on the market successively, and attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala, as a concentrated supply of red fruits may impact inventory fruits [3][4] - Red dates: The red date market has intensified differences in the new - season production forecast. The short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, since red dates are still in the traditional off - season of consumption and the inventory of old dates remains high, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8178 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.63% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 578 in Qixia was down 51 from the previous day, and the spot basis AP10 + 822 in Luochuan was down 51 from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 11550 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.16% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 2050 was up 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market News Apple - The market of stored Fuji apples remains stable and dull, with slow overall transactions. Early - maturing Gala and Luoli apples have been successively listed for trading. In the western production areas, the remaining supply of goods is limited, and spot merchants mainly sell their own inventory. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants is small, and they are still cautious in purchasing, mostly picking and bargaining. The overall出库 speed is slow, and the sales are still mainly low - priced striped red apples. In the early - maturing aspect, bagged Gala apples have been widely removed from bags and are successively listed for trading. This week, the supply of Gala apples in Tongchuan and Weinan will increase. In the Shandong production area, Luoli apples are being traded in an orderly manner, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants is acceptable. The demand in the sales area market is poor, and the impact of seasonal fruits is still obvious [2] Red dates - In the main production areas of Xinjiang gray jujubes, jujube farmers are actively carrying out field management during the growth period of jujube trees. Some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 10 trucks of jujubes arrived at the parking area, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 10.80 yuan/kg, first - grade at 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade at 8.40 yuan/kg, and third - grade at 6.90 yuan/kg, and the prices increased slightly by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with nearly 50% of the arrivals being traded. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, and the price of high - quality goods was strong, with the reference prices of special - grade jujubes at 11.50 yuan/kg, first - grade at 10.50 yuan/kg, and second - grade at 8.50 yuan/kg, and the prices increased by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan/kg, with a small amount of trading in the morning market [6] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed up, reaching a half - month high. The delayed supply of new - season Gala apples and the low inventory in recent years have led to a continued upward trend in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the market and the weather changes in the main production areas. Last week, the trading of early - maturing apples in the western region was limited, bagged Gala apples were sporadically listed, and bagged Qinyang apples were basically out of the market. In the Shandong production area, the sales of stored Fuji apples were slightly faster than the previous week, but the overall transactions were still limited, and merchants were not active in purchasing, especially for large and high - quality fruits. In terms of price, early - maturing fruits were weak, and the price of stored fruits was stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of the sales areas, the phenomenon of high - quality apples getting high prices was obvious, and the overall sales were still slow. This week, the supply of early - maturing bagged Gala apples will increase successively, and attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. Overall, the apple spot market remains dull, with low inventory levels supporting the price of stored fruits. The poor quality of early - maturing apples with many green - returning phenomena has led to mediocre sales of both early - maturing and stored fruits. This week, early - maturing varieties such as Gala in the western region and Luoli in the Shandong production area will be successively listed for supply. Attention should be paid to the coloring of Gala apples, and if red fruits are supplied in a concentrated manner, it may have a certain impact on stored fruits [3] Red dates - The red date futures closed down yesterday, ending a continuous upward trend. Festival stocking is gradually starting, but the consumption of inventory is limited. The temperature in the production areas is high, and the quality of new - season jujubes remains to be verified. Currently, jujubes are in the fruit expansion period, and attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes in the production areas on the yield and quality. In the new - season production areas, some jujube orchards reported that the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was average, but the fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers was good due to the temperature drop and rainfall in early July. Last week, there was windy weather in some areas, causing some fruit drops in a small number of jujube orchards in windy areas, and attention should be continuously paid to weather changes this week. In the sales areas, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved recently, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. Since new jujubes entered the critical period of flowering and fruit - setting in June, the market has been continuously trading based on the expectation of new - season production reduction, and the sensitivity to new - season changes in the production areas has increased. According to the research data statistics of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this month was 9784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, indicating a decline in sample - point inventory [7] Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Since there are no prominent contradictions in the apple fundamentals, it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [4] Red dates - Adopt a neutral - to - bullish strategy. The differences in the new - season production forecast of red dates are intensifying, and the short - term trend of the futures market may still be oscillating strongly under the influence of capital sentiment. However, due to the high inventory of old dates and the traditional off - season of consumption, if the production reduction expectation cannot be fulfilled, the price of red dates may return to a weak state under the pressure of high inventory [8]

Summary of Yue Yuen (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng (3813.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng International Holdings Limited (3813.HK) [1][2] Key Industry Insights - **OEM Business Outlook**: The OEM business outlook for 2H25 remains cautious due to shorter order visibility from brands and conservative procurement practices. Management expects Q3 volume to decline by high single digits (HSD%) compared to a high base last year, with a wider year-over-year (yoy) decline in gross profit margin (GPM) than in 1H25 [1][12] - **Retail Demand**: Pou Sheng is experiencing uncertainty in sales recovery for 2H25, with inventory levels under control due to self-help efforts and brand support. The company anticipates a positive growth in average selling price (ASP) for 2H25, contributing to a low single-digit (LSD%) growth in full-year ASP yoy [1][12] Financial Performance - **Pou Sheng Sales Decline**: Pou Sheng reported a -12% yoy decline in sales for 2Q25, followed by a -9% yoy decline in July. Management expects continued pressure in August due to seasonal factors [13] - **Inventory Management**: Inventory levels rose by 4.6% yoy in 1H25, with aging inventory below 9%. The company plans to implement proactive measures to manage inventory in response to demand softness [14] Margin and Cost Insights - **Margin Pressure**: 2Q25 margins faced headwinds from subcontracting costs, uneven production levels, and rising labor costs. The company expects GPM in 3Q25 to decline more than in 1H25, but overall GPM for 2H25 is projected to be higher than in 1H25 [12][14] - **Tariff Implications**: Four brand customers, accounting for approximately 50% of sales, have requested the company to share low single-digit percentage points (LSDpp) of the elevated US tariff. There is no significant increase in tariff-sharing requirements following the reciprocal tariff for ASEAN countries rising to approximately 20% from 10% [9][12] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Focus - **Capex Plans**: The company expects to invest over US$300 million in capex for 2025, focusing on diversifying manufacturing capacity in key countries like Indonesia and India, which is set to start production in 1Q27 [10] Valuation and Price Targets - **Price Target for Yue Yuen**: The target price remains unchanged at HK$14.00, based on an 8x/9x 2025E P/E valuation for Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen's OEM business, respectively [3][20] - **Price Target for Pou Sheng**: The target price is adjusted to HK$0.60 from HK$0.70, reflecting a conservative outlook on sales and margins [3][19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks for Yue Yuen**: Potential risks include tariff hikes impacting demand, weaker-than-expected orders from key accounts, and lower-than-expected margin recovery [20] - **Key Risks for Pou Sheng**: Risks include slower recovery of Nike/adidas growth in China and higher discounts leading to operating deleverage [19] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards Yue Yuen's OEM business appears to be improving, reflected in a 6% increase in share price, driven by settled tariff rates, lower expectations, better ASP, and disciplined operating expense control [2]