甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/01 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 285 346 160 240 -1163 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 155 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2760 2505 2480 2600 2460 2580 286 347 258 340 -1243 2025/06/2 7 801 2820 2505 2460 2600 2460 2580 282 350 267 400 -1176 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 282 350 267 350 -1173 日度变化 0 -35 -20 -30 0 -15 -37 0 0 0 -50 3 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Burberry's proactive price reduction strategy has led to a significant recovery in its stock price, increasing over 70% since mid-April 2023, despite facing severe challenges in the luxury goods sector [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Burberry reported revenues of £2.461 billion, a 17% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit down 94% to £26 million [2][5]. - Comparable store sales fell by 12% for the fiscal year, with the Asia-Pacific market experiencing a 16% decline [3][5]. - The fourth quarter showed a narrowing decline in comparable store sales to 6%, better than the market expectation of 7.78% [5]. Strategic Changes - New CEO Joshua Schulman has implemented a strategic shift focusing on classic products and reducing prices, moving away from previous high-end strategies [6][7]. - The company plans to cut approximately 1,700 jobs, which is nearly 20% of its global workforce, aiming to save £60 million by fiscal year 2027 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - Japan was the only market to show growth for Burberry, with a slight increase of 1%, primarily driven by spending from Chinese tourists [4]. - The outlet channel has become increasingly important, with Burberry being referred to as the "Outlet Queen," as it has performed well despite challenges in high-end retail locations [8][10]. Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Burberry has faced significant inventory issues, leading to a 7% decrease in total inventory at constant exchange rates [11]. - The company's gross margin fell to 62.5%, down 470 basis points at constant exchange rates, primarily due to discounting actions to manage excess inventory [11].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/27 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 0 801 2750 2665 2525 2700 2480 2600 296 346 195 210 -1445 2025/06/2 3 801 2735 2643 2543 2700 2480 2633 295 346 171 210 -1350 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 285 346 160 240 -1163 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 160 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2460 2580 285 346 160 340 -1243 日度变化 0 0 0 0 0 -10 -10 0 0 0 90 -54 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值， ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Rabbit Baby Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses Rabbit Baby, a company focused on the building materials industry, particularly in the production and distribution of wood-based panels and home decoration products. Key Points and Arguments Market Strategy and Revenue Growth - Rabbit Baby is actively pursuing channel penetration, focusing on mid-western cities and economically developed county-level towns, with expected revenue from town channels reaching 3.9 billion in 2023 and 9 billion in 2024, aiming to develop 1,500 stores by 2025 [2][5][4] - The furniture factory channel accounts for 39% of the company's total market channels, showing rapid growth, with a focus on particle board in northern markets and multi-layer and solid wood boards in southern regions [2][6] Product and Service Integration - The company has merged its panel and home decoration company channels to form a home decoration operation company, which is expected to generate nearly 14 billion in revenue in 2024, marking it as a significant growth point [2][8] - The engineering channel primarily targets public projects and has shifted from basic materials to quick-install materials like honeycomb aluminum fireproof panels [2][9] Supply Chain and Cost Management - Rabbit Baby maintains profit margins through strengthened supply chain management and cost control, ensuring supplier profitability while seeking cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][15] - The company has adjusted its product structure to include flooring and integrated wall products to boost sales and enhance customer loyalty through promotional activities [5][4] Retail and Online Strategy - The establishment of a new retail operation center aims to assist distributors in creating online stores, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu to drive orders [10][4] Performance and Risk Management - The company reported a slow market recovery in Q1 2025, with a slight rebound in April followed by a decline in May. The full custom home business saw growth in order volume during the same period [3][11] - Risk control is emphasized in the Qingdao business, focusing on managing accounts receivable and ensuring healthy operations for distributors [11][4] Competitive Landscape and Consumer Behavior - The company faces competition from small enterprises, with a significant number exiting the market, providing opportunities for leading brands to capture market share [15][16] - Consumer preferences vary by region, with northern markets favoring particle boards due to climatic conditions, while southern markets show a stronger preference for solid wood and multi-layer boards [18] Future Outlook and Dividend Strategy - The company plans to maintain stable or increasing absolute dividend amounts rather than focusing solely on dividend rates, with a target to match or exceed the 2024 dividend level of 0.28 per share [28] - There are no immediate plans to diversify into new business areas, with a focus on core operations and avoiding blind investments [28] Additional Important Insights - The company has implemented channel incentives to promote inventory turnover, ensuring that stock levels remain within reasonable limits [14][27] - The integration of high-margin products like gypsum boards and adhesives into the sales strategy is expected to enhance overall profitability [19][20] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Rabbit Baby's strategic initiatives, market positioning, and future outlook in the building materials industry.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-25 地缘冲突缓和，⿊⾊偏弱震荡 伊以局势缓和，受此影响双焦再度转弱。除此之外⿊⾊板块处于真空 期，能交易的其他驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯热卷需求回暖，螺纹季节 性下⾏。供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，整体供需均环⽐⾛强，库存暂⽆压 ⼒。不过市场对后市需求预期依然偏悲观，整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震 荡盘整阶段。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元素方面，近期主产区环保及安全检查趋严，煤矿间歇式停产 现象较多，焦煤产量持续下滑，但整体供应的收缩幅度相对有限； 进口方面，贸易商拉运积极性偏弱，口岸通关延续低位。需求端， 焦炭产量高位回落，焦企在去库及亏损压力下、开工存在进一步下降 预期。库存端，焦煤刚需有所下滑、下游原料补库需 ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices. Global refined nickel inventories are increasing marginally. Stainless steel supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [4][5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has a fast short - term warehouse receipt clearance, but the upside space is limited. Polysilicon should maintain a short - selling strategy. The fundamentals of both show an oversupply situation [30][34][35]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, showing a weak oscillation. Opportunities for short - selling at high prices and reverse spreads should be awaited [62][63][64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production, and the strategy is mainly based on spread expressions. There are potential long - term bullish factors. Soybean oil is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, with potential upward space after the third quarter [88][89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The logic of the ore end is dull, and the smelting end restricts the upside space. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing marginally, and the nickel - iron is in a state of surplus and inventory accumulation. The price of nickel is affected by factors such as the expected increase in Indonesian quotas and the possible removal of the Philippine raw ore export ban [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons. The mid - June nickel - iron inventory increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are various events such as the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, and the shutdown of a cold - rolling mill [10]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Production and imports are decreasing marginally, the inventory pressure remains, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. In the long term, the price center may be difficult to lift significantly [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in both cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: The industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly this week, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 7,390 yuan/ton on Friday [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The industry inventory is de - stocking again. The supply is expected to increase as factories in Xinjiang and Sichuan continue to resume production. The demand from downstream industries has short - term increases in some aspects but is still mainly based on rigid demand [31][32]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The follow - up focus is on the warehouse receipt situation. The high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Movement**: The polysilicon futures declined significantly this week, and the spot price is also expected to decrease [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The upstream inventory is slightly de - stocking. The supply is expected to increase as some factories resume production, while the terminal demand is declining, and the silicon wafer production is expected to be adjusted downward [31][32][33]. - **Future Outlook**: The strategy is to short at high prices. The price is expected to continue to decline towards the real cost line [35]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The main contract of carbonate lithium oscillated downward. The 2507 contract closed at 59,820 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 60,400 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing as the production and operating rate of the smelting end are growing. The demand is weakening as new energy vehicle sales show no significant increase, and the energy storage demand is expected to decline after reaching a peak in May. The inventory is accumulating [63]. - **Future Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling at high prices after the long - buying intention of the near - month contract is clear and reverse spreads after the end of June are recommended [64][65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.86% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: The production in Malaysia is expected to be flat or slightly decrease in June. The export is strong, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in June. It is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term strategy is based on spread expressions, and long - buying can be considered at low levels before the fourth quarter [89]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Logic**: The 09 contract rose by 4.75% due to the sudden positive news of the US biodiesel obligation and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East [88]. - **This Week's Logic**: Internationally, the US EPA's policy will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean oil. Domestically, the inventory is accumulating currently but may reach a peak in July. It is also in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern, and long - buying opportunities can be observed in the fourth quarter [90][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly, and the futures fluctuated narrowly following the macro - sentiment. The overall market situation is affected by factors on the supply, demand, inventory, and profit sides [1][2][3]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weak. If the consumer side weakens significantly, there is still room for the lithium carbonate market to decline. However, attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Spot Market - **Price**: The lithium carbonate futures weakened this week. The main contract 2509 closed at 58,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.81%. The average price of battery - grade spot was 60,000 yuan/ton, down 1.23% from the previous week, and the average price of industrial - grade spot was 59,000 yuan/ton, down 1.26% from last week. The futures were at a discount of 1,500 yuan/ton to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. - **Supply**: The weekly output increased slightly to 18,500 tons, with an increase of 335 tons. The output from different sources all showed a slight increase [1]. - **Consumption**: The output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.92% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 0.30%, cobalt - lithium decreased by 0.50%, and manganese - lithium decreased by 0.67%. The demand at the battery end is difficult to increase, and the industry chain is in a destocking trend [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry increased. The spot inventory was 134,900 tons, an increase of 1,352 tons from last week. The futures warehouse receipt volume decreased to 30,000 tons [2]. - **Profit**: Lithium ore prices have been relatively stable recently. Enterprises purchasing lithium ore externally have difficulty in making profits and need to cooperate with futures hedging. Salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability. Recycling material manufacturers are facing losses, and the processing fees of processing enterprises are in a competitive situation [2]. Other Products - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The output this week was 5,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.37%. The overall supply of the market is stable, but the industry's operating rate remains at a low level [3]. - **Cobalt**: The output of domestic cobalt sulfate is expected to be 1,080 metal tons this week, a decrease from last week, and the operating rate has also declined. The output of cobalt tetroxide is expected to be 2,415 tons, remaining stable compared to last week [4]. Market Transactions - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot transactions were dull, and the basis of spot quotations weakened. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on long - term agreements and customer - supplied materials, and the demand for spot purchases is poor [3]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt salt market is in the off - season of demand, and the demand growth momentum is limited. The downstream purchasing atmosphere is not good, and the market is mainly executing existing orders [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: If the consumer side weakens significantly, the lithium carbonate market still has room to decline. If the market rebounds, upstream enterprises should mainly sell for hedging at high prices [8]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options and use bear spread options [8].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/20 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/06/1 3 | 801 | 2480 | 2450 | 2405 | 2550 | 2365 | 2590 | 279 | 325 | 50 | 60 | -1001 | | 2025/06/1 6 | 801 | 2585 | 2528 | 2478 | 2600 | 2390 | 2593 | 287 | 325 | 114 | 125 | -1001 | | 2025/06/1 7 | 801 | 2615 | 2563 | 2500 | 265 ...