Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The EG main contract closed at 4004 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton, +0.02% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4090 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton, -0.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 74 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -68 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -627 yuan/ton (-29 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (+3.8 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (+5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.5 tons, and port inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 5.3 tons and at the secondary ports are 6.3 tons, and inventories are expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol production load is operating at a high level, overseas supply losses are still significant, and there are still more than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants in a shutdown or low - load operation state with little expected change. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, the peak season is not prosperous, and the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The overall EG balance sheet faces significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol port inventories are expected to gradually rise [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. As ethylene glycol port inventories rise, there is significant pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - made EG, coal - made syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as the total load and syngas - made load of ethylene glycol [1][10][16]. International Price Difference - It provides the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It includes the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [20][21][24]. Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of ethylene glycol at ports in East China, including overall port inventories, inventories at specific ports like Zhangjiagang and Ningbo, and the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at ports in East China [28][30][37].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Acme United reported net revenues of $49 million in Q3 2025, a 2% increase from $48 million in Q3 2024 [5] - Net income decreased to $1.9 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, down from $2.2 million, or $0.54 per diluted share in the previous year, representing a 14% decline in net income and a 15% decline in earnings per share [11] - Gross margin improved to 39.1% in Q3 2025 from 38.5% in Q3 2024 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales of first aid products, which account for about two-thirds of total revenues, increased by 9% [5] - Sales of Westcott cutting tools were negatively impacted by the cancellation of back-to-school promotions due to tariff uncertainties [5] - SG&A expenses for Q3 2025 were $16.2 million, maintaining 33% of sales, compared to $15.6 million in the same period of 2024 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. segment net sales increased by 1% in Q3 2025, while sales of school and office products decreased due to tariff-related cancellations [9] - European net sales increased by 6% in local currency for the quarter, driven by higher e-commerce sales of school and office products [9] - Canadian net sales rose by 7% in Q3 2025 and 16% year-to-date, primarily due to increased sales of first aid products [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting production locations to mitigate tariff impacts and is increasing domestic production [6] - Acme United is investing in a new manufacturing facility to produce Spill Magic cleanup products, expected to be operational in Q1 2026 [7] - The company is focusing on strengthening its balance sheet and exploring acquisition opportunities [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market is stabilizing with increased promotional activity expected in the coming quarters [6] - The company anticipates consistent growth in its first aid business and gradual improvement in Westcott sales [8] - Management highlighted the challenges posed by high inflation, interest rates, and supply chain disruptions [4] Other Important Information - The company paid $2.3 million in dividends and generated $11 million in free cash flow before the purchase of a new facility [12] - Bank debt, less cash, decreased to $23 million as of September 30, 2025, down from $27 million a year earlier [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariff uncertainty on sales - Management explained that large retailers like Walmart canceled orders due to high tariffs, leading to reduced purchases across the board [16][20] Question: Inventory management and flexibility - Management confirmed that they had increased inventory in anticipation of tariffs and have been working to manage it down while preparing for potential future tariff issues [28] Question: Production capacity and growth - Management indicated that the new Spill Magic facility will allow for increased production capacity and automation, with expectations for full operation by the end of March 2026 [44][47] Question: Refill business in first aid - The refill business currently accounts for approximately 25% of first aid revenue, with ongoing automation efforts to enhance efficiency [60] Question: Trade inventory levels - Management noted that Amazon has reduced its inventory of first aid products, while visibility into other retailers' inventory levels is less clear [40]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PulteGroup generated third quarter home sale revenues of $4.2 billion, down 2% from $4.3 billion in the same quarter last year [13] - Operating margins for the third quarter were 16.8%, with a return on equity of 21% for the trailing twelve months [4] - Net income for the third quarter was $568 million, or $2.96 per share, compared to $698 million, or $3.35 per share, in the prior year [20] - The company reported a third quarter gross margin of 26.2%, down 80 basis points from Q2 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net new orders totaled 6,638 homes, a 6% decrease year-over-year, with a 10% decrease in absorption pace [11] - Active adult business saw a 7% increase in net new orders, representing 24% of Q3 net new orders [12] - First-time buyer orders decreased by 14%, while move-up business orders were down 3% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company operates across 47 major markets, with demand conditions varying by market and buyer segment [5] - Florida operations showed a 2% increase in net new orders compared to the prior year, indicating stabilization in demand [26] - Consumer demand in Texas and Western markets remained soft during the third quarter [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on aligning production levels with sales volumes, starting 6,557 homes in Q3 to match sales pace [9] - PulteGroup plans to invest approximately $5 billion in land acquisition and development, down 5% from last year [10] - The company is capitalizing on the Del Webb brand through new Del Webb Explore communities aimed at Gen X buyers [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that buyer response to decreasing interest rates has been muted due to economic concerns [8] - The company remains optimistic about future demand, contingent on improved consumer confidence and economic conditions [25] - Management acknowledged the structural housing shortage in the U.S. and the need for coordinated efforts to address it [28] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 2.4 million common shares for $300 million in Q3, with $1.3 billion remaining under the share repurchase authorization [20][21] - SG&A expenses for Q3 were $401 million, consistent with the prior year [19] - The company ended the quarter with $1.5 billion in cash and a debt-to-capital ratio of 11.2% [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Dialogue with FHFA and administration regarding housing - Management emphasized the complexity of the housing issue and the need for a coordinated effort to address the structural housing shortage [32][33] Question: Strategy on spec production - Management clarified that the increase in spec production is a response to current market conditions, aiming to align starts with sales [34][35] Question: Demand stabilization in Florida and Southeast - Management confirmed stabilization in demand in Florida and the Southeast, attributing it to desirable locations and favorable tax policies [39][40] Question: Incentives and their impact - Management explained that incentives are primarily reflected in the average sales price and that financial incentives make up about one-third of the total incentive package [63][64] Question: Impact of lower development costs on P&L - Management indicated that lower development costs would impact the P&L in 9 to 12 months, potentially benefiting lot cost inflation in 2026 [85][86]

Report Overview - The report provides daily updates on the methanol, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets, including price data and market outlooks [1][5]. Methanol Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the daily change in动力煤期货 was 0, while江苏现货 decreased by 25, and华南现货 decreased by 22 [1]. Market Outlook - The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The 01 contract's contradictions are difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Recent coal price increases do not affect methanol profits [1]. Polyethylene (PE) Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the华北LL price decreased by 50, and the主力期货 decreased by 55 [5]. Market Outlook - Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract's basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China. Import profits are around -200, with no further increase expected. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differentials are volatile. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New plant pressure is high in 2025 [5]. Polypropylene (PP) Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the华东PP price decreased by 15, and the主力期货 decreased by 67 [5]. Market Outlook - Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import losses are around 700. Exports have been good this year. PDH profits are around -400. Propylene prices are volatile, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH plants undergo more maintenance [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Price Data - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the电石法 - 华东 price increased by 20 [5]. Market Outlook - The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivered basis is -480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer maintenance in Northwest plants has ended, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal prices are strong, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. PVC comprehensive profits are -100. Current inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, real estate sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of urea remains weak, with high enterprise inventories suppressing prices. The current low - season situation makes it difficult to digest the existing output, and the weak - reality pattern is unlikely to change in the short term [12]. - Although the absolute price is low, the downward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The overall valuation of urea is low, but there is a lack of effective positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, enterprise inventories are at a high level year - on - year, and the basis and inter - month spreads are still weak. The weak - reality pattern is difficult to change in the short term [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25%, returning to a seasonal neutral level. The daily output is 182,200 tons, with more short - stop devices, and it is expected to decline in the short term [12]. - **Demand**: It is the agricultural off - season, and agricultural demand is postponed due to weather. The compound fertilizer industry is in the maintenance season, with the operating rate at a low level year - on - year and the finished - product inventory decreasing from a high level. Overall, both industrial and agricultural demand are at a low level [12]. - **Valuation**: The 1 - 5 spread is weak, and the basis is at a low level without improvement. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories are 1.6154 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 171,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. Port inventories are 446,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 tons, and the enthusiasm for cargo collection at ports has increased after the Indian tender was announced [12]. - **Market Logic**: The weak - reality pattern in the domestic market remains unchanged. Prices are continuously weak due to high inventories, but the downward trend of the futures price has slowed down at low absolute prices [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of different futures contracts and spot markets in various regions have changed. For example, the 09 contract price is 1,705 yuan, the 01 contract price is 1,602 yuan, and the 05 contract price is 1,672 yuan. The basis and spreads between contracts have also changed [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market is in a state of position - reduction and consolidation [28]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Enterprise profits are continuously weakening, including fixed - bed profits, water - coal - slurry profits, and gas - head production profits [32]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories are increasing, and port inventories are also rising. The report also includes inventory change projections [37][39]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Production Capacity**: There are planned new production capacity projects, and some enterprises have started production in 2024 - 2025 [45]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate has decreased, with more short - stop devices. Gas - head operating rates are at a low level year - on - year, and there are more maintenance projects for coal - based production [47]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, including both planned and unplanned maintenance, which has affected production [49]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: The report includes monthly consumption data and downstream demand proportion analysis [54]. - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources such as synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented [59]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine are analyzed [62]. - **Terminal Demand**: Terminal demand is affected by factors such as the real estate market and export of related products [70]. - **Export**: Urea export profits are good, and the export volume is also presented in the report [81]. 3.6. Option - Related - **Option Data**: The report includes data on option open interest, trading volume, PCR, and volatility, as well as the relationship between option volatility and futures prices [90]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Industry Chain Diagram**: Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics are provided [104]. - **Fertilizer Demand Seasonality**: The fertilizer demand seasonality in different regions of China and major countries around the world is summarized [112].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Steel and iron ore, which had significant declines in the previous period, showed signs of stabilization yesterday. Steel short positions were reduced, while iron ore positions continued to increase. - Although plate inventories have accumulated significantly, with appropriate production cuts by steel mills, the inventory is expected to turn to destocking. The reduction in hot-rolled coil production is not obvious, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge. For single-side trading, it is advisable to wait and see for now. The January contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3190, 3120, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3102, 3141, and 3049 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 12, 191, and 15 yuan [1]. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3280, 3190, and 3230 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -10, and 0 yuan compared to the previous day. Hot-rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 were 3233, 3254, and 3219 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 10, -356, and 7 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, also unchanged. - The cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 2 yuan to 3307 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan to 3140 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot-rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan, and the profit of North China hot-rolled coil decreased by 14 yuan to -55 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output was 240.9 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or 0.3% compared to the previous day. The output of the five major steel products was 857.0 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous day. The rebar output was 201.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous day, among which the electric furnace output increased by 3.1 tons or 13.5%, and the converter output decreased by 5.4 tons or 3.0%. The hot-rolled coil output was 321.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous day [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1582.3 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous day. The rebar inventory was 641.1 tons, a decrease of 18.6 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous day. The hot-rolled coil inventory was 419.2 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous day [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.2 tons, an increase of 1.0 tons or 11.4% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 875.4 tons, an increase of 124.0 tons or 16.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for rebar was 219.8 tons, an increase of 66.6 tons or 43.5% compared to the previous day. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 315.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons or 7.0% compared to the previous day [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures continued to fluctuate weakly yesterday. The supply and demand situation of iron ore is changing from balanced and tight to relatively loose. Due to the weak operation of steel prices, the profitability of steel mills continues to decline, and the weak demand side will force iron ore to operate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for single-side trading, with a reference range of 750 - 800. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 826.4, 824.9, 832.0, and 834.9 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.1, 3.3, 0.0, and 3.2 yuan compared to the previous day. - The 01 contract basis for Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines was 52.9, 51.4, 58.5, and 61.4 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4.1, 6.3, 3.0, and 6.2 yuan compared to the previous day [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of Carajas fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 904.0, 778.0, 810.0, and 733.0 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, and 3.0 yuan compared to the previous day. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price was 105.7 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.2 dollars compared to the previous day, and the Platts 62% Fe price was 106.2 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons or 16.8% compared to the previous week. The weekly global shipment volume was 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons or -2.2% compared to the previous week. The national monthly import volume was 10522.5 tons, an increase of 61.5 tons or 0.6% compared to the previous month [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to the previous week. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327.0 tons, a decrease of 9.4 tons or -2.8% compared to the previous week. The national monthly pig iron output was 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 100.5 tons or -1.4% compared to the previous month. The national monthly crude steel output was 7736.9 tons, a decrease of 229.0 tons or -2.9% compared to the previous month [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 61.6 tons or 0.4% compared to Monday of the previous week. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9046.2 tons, a decrease of 990.6 tons or -9.9% compared to the previous week. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 21 days [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints Coke - Coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a price increase once and then remained stable, port trade quotes rebounded. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1620 - 1770, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. The spot auction prices in Shanxi recovered, and the prices of some coal types rebounded significantly, with Mongolian coal prices rising steadily. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with a reference range of 1120 - 1250, and for arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 and 1613 yuan/ton respectively. The coke 01 contract was 1673 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan or 1.9% compared to the previous day [5]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) were 1300 and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 30 and 41 yuan compared to the previous day. The coking coal 01 contract was 1186 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan or 3.0% compared to the previous day [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of 247 steel mills was 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or -0.1% compared to October 10th [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons or -0.2% compared to October 10th. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or -1.3% compared to October 10th [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory was 891.9 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons or -2.0% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 57.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons or -10.3% compared to October 10th. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.4 tons, a decrease of 11.4 tons or -1.7% compared to October 10th [5]. - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal was 100.5 tons, a decrease of 10.7 tons or -9.6% compared to October 10th. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 997.4 tons, an increase of 38.3 tons or 4.0% compared to October 10th [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving factors are not favorable, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream major producers and coal chemical industry are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Outer - market prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production is decreasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is high [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream major producers and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 700, and export is good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. European and American prices are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is high, supply pressure can be alleviated to neutral [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is good, semi - coke cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent caustic soda export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' spot and relevant indicators changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2228 to 2305, and the import profit remained unchanged at 325 [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The trading logic focuses on the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has potential demand, but port reverse flow impacts inland valuation. Xingxing's operation situation and inventory accumulation also affect the market. Import variables such as Indian purchases from Iran and unplanned maintenance should be noted [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 785. The prices of various polyethylene products in different regions changed. For example, the North China LL price decreased from 6980 to 6880, and the import profit changed from 14 to - 84 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Inventory is neutral overall. Attention should be paid to factors such as LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6450 to 6200, and other prices and indicators also changed. For example, the export profit increased from - 33 to - 16 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Valuation indicators are in a certain state. Future supply and demand are affected by factors such as exports and PDH device maintenance [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained stable at 2400 in some days, and other prices and indicators had minor changes. For example, the export profit decreased from 408 to 424 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity implementation, exports, coal prices, and terminal orders in Q4 [7].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Gold and Jewelry Industry Industry Overview - The gold and jewelry industry is experiencing significant changes due to rising gold prices, which have increased by approximately 50% year-on-year during the 2025 Golden Week, impacting retail sales positively despite a slight decline in weight sold [1][2][21]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - Overall sales growth during the 2025 Golden Week was 5.7%, with individual brand performances varying: - Lao Feng Xiang: +6.3% - Zhou Da Sheng: -1.4% - Lao Miao: +1.8% - Chao Hong Ji: +18% - Zhou Da Fu: +7.8% - China Gold: -7.3% [2][21]. Pricing and Profitability - The average transaction price for Lao Feng Xiang increased from 80-120 RMB to 170-180 RMB due to rising gold prices, while profit per gram for stores dropped from 120-150 RMB to 50-80 RMB [1][5][6]. - Gross margins have decreased by 3-4 percentage points, with fine jewelry products at approximately 22%-25% and general products at 15%-18%, leading to an overall margin of about 18%-20% [7][8]. Brand Strategies - Zhou Da Fu has adjusted its product structure, increasing the proportion of fixed-price products from 10% to over 25%, significantly improving its gross margin [3][12]. - Chao Hong Ji has successfully attracted younger consumers through IP updates, achieving a national sales increase of 52% [1][4]. Store Management and Market Dynamics - Major brands are in a phase of store closures, with Zhou Da Sheng closing 78 stores, Lao Feng Xiang 48, and Zhou Da Fu reducing from over 7,000 to 5,600 stores. Chao Hong Ji is the only brand expanding its store count [10][11]. - The management of franchisees has become more relaxed, leading to widespread discounting practices among franchisees to remain competitive [10]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a growth rate of 10% to 20% in 2026, driven by wedding demand and expectations of continued gold price increases [22][25]. - Current inventory levels have risen, with stores holding 17-18 kg compared to 12 kg previously, complicating predictions for when consumption will normalize [23]. Taxation and Compliance Issues - Hong Kong brands face frequent tax audits due to full invoicing practices, leading to significant tax liabilities for franchisees [26][27]. - Domestic brands utilize strategies to minimize tax burdens, such as reducing invoicing amounts [29]. Consumer Behavior - The sensitivity of consumers to high prices is increasing, prompting brands to optimize their market presence and inventory management [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - The proportion of old-for-new exchanges is around 20%, contributing significantly to sales revenue as gold prices rise [30]. - The industry is expected to undergo cyclical changes, with potential new product trends emerging that could lead to a new store opening cycle in the future [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term M01 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic soybean meal inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season may be further reduced. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 8.2% as of October 4. In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to decline, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under the Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the distant months. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream spot trading of soybean meal is good, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal is cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level. This week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased. Domestic rapeseed stocks have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal stocks have been continuously depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent price of soybean meal futures is at a neutral valuation [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Ministry of Transport's announcement of charging special port fees for US ships is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump's announcement of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese - imported goods has escalated the Sino - US trade tension [4]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and arbitrage is on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products - **Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [33][39]. - **US Soybean Situation**: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has slightly declined. The export sales performance of US soybeans is poor [48][53][65]. - **Import and Price**: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import price of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The monthly import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is also provided [72][75][77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is at different levels. The inventory of soybeans is at a high level, soybean meal has a slight reduction in inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [80]. - **Trading Volume and Consumption**: The trading volume and consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, but the holiday pick - up volume has declined [103]. - **Price Difference and Feed Production**: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the monthly feed production are shown [115][117]. - **Breeding Situation**: The breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, including the decline in pig prices and the high weight of pigs [119][123][127]

Report Title - [New Energy Weekly Report] [1] Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Nonferrous Metals Research Center [2] - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling [2] - Assistant Analyst: Chen Yusen [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The polysilicon market has an "anti - involution" policy framework, and the fundamentals may improve in the medium to long term, but prices may fluctuate in the short term. The lithium carbonate market has strong terminal demand, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [8][9][86] Summary by Directory 1. Nonferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report monitors the closing prices of various nonferrous metals and new energy products, including the US dollar index, exchange rates, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, etc. For example, the current value of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6] 2. Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 95,500 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week. The number of open furnaces is 313, an increase of 3 from the previous week. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month and a 7.33% decrease from the same period last year. October production is planned to be 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from the previous month and a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 32,000 tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Organic silicon DMC weekly production is 47,600 tons, a 1.04% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 693,900 tons, a 0.86% decrease from the previous week, with year - on - year growth of 23.18%. The industry inventory is 442,500 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, a 0.07% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 133 yuan, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Investment View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the price may fluctuate [8] Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. August production was 131,700 tons, a 23.31% increase from the previous month and a 2.41% increase from the same period last year. September production is planned to be 126,700 tons, a 3.80% decrease from the previous month and a 2.69% decrease from the same period last year [9] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 13.65GW, a 0.27% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.60GW, a 0.45% increase from the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 25,390 tons, a 4.83% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 24,420 tons, a 3.30% increase from the previous week [9] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,543 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,057 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" policy framework may improve the fundamentals of polysilicon in the medium to long term. Due to the long - term non - implementation of "anti - involution", market sentiment has subsided, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] 3. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. September production was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from the previous month and a 52.00% increase from the same period last year. October production is planned to be about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from the previous month and a 50.78% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month and a 23.54% increase from the same period last year. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month and a 33.13% decrease from the same period last year [86] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,100 tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 18,800 tons, a 0.48% increase from the previous week [86] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a 11.91% increase from the previous month and a 27.40% increase from the same period last year; the sales volume was 1.3953 million, a 10.55% increase from the previous month and a 26.84% increase from the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative winning bid power of domestic energy storage was 41.09GW/111.43GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 134,800 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous week. The lithium salt factory inventory is 34,700 tons, a 4.85% decrease from the previous week [86] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external purchase is 77,806 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease from the previous week; the production profit is - 7,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 727 yuan/ton from the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, pushing up prices. In the medium to long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [86]