Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a decline of 0.44%, with the latest price at 123.26 yuan, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 13.45% and a transaction volume of 2.166 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 16.023 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 155 million yuan [2] - The leverage funds are actively participating, with the latest margin buying amounting to 213 million yuan and a margin balance of 220 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Recent US-China trade talks in Geneva resulted in a joint statement that includes a 90-day suspension of tariffs on 24% of Chinese goods, while retaining a 10% tariff on these products [2] - The positive outcomes of the trade negotiations have exceeded market expectations, potentially improving short-term risk appetite and pushing interest rates upward, although the effects of monetary easing policies have yet to fully materialize [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investment performance [3] Group 3 - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a good tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency, with a minimum trading unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3] - The ETF allows for immediate transactions and T+0 intra-day trading, supported by multiple market makers providing liquidity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with a gradual stabilization in the yield curve following recent policy impacts, and a potential new round of interest rate cuts expected in the money market [1][8]. Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.02% at 120.370, while the 10-year main contract fell 0.01% to 109.060 [2]. - The interbank yield on major bonds mostly rose by about 0.5 basis points, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield increasing by 0.35 basis points to 1.7025% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 10.99 basis points to 3.880% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up 3.8 basis points to 1.363% [4]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance issued 1-year bonds with a scale of 170 billion, at an issuance rate of 1.3766%, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.88 times [5]. - The issuance of 30-year bonds totaled 71 billion, with an issuance rate of 1.8463% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.17 times [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 770 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 770 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates collectively declined, with the overnight rate dropping to 1.497%, the lowest since January 2025 [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions believe that the recent monetary policy adjustments, including rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are aimed at alleviating the pressure on financial institutions' net interest margins and are expected to lead to a new round of interest rate reductions in the bond market [8]. - The overall trend indicates that short-term rates are likely to decline, which will also pull down long-term rates, suggesting a continued downward trajectory for bond yields [8].

Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a long-awaited easing policy by lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and reducing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.4% [1][7] - Following the announcement, the yield curve steepened due to market reactions, with the 2-year and 10-year Chinese government bond yield spread narrowing to 16 basis points, close to a ten-year low [10][1] - Bank of America anticipates further steepening of the yield curve due to increased supply of long-term bonds from special government bonds and favorable liquidity conditions, with the possibility of the PBOC restarting bond purchase operations [1][10] Foreign Exchange and Capital Flows - The net foreign exchange settlement balance for banks improved from -6.7 billion USD in February to 0.1 million USD in March, indicating a balanced supply and demand for USD [2][30] - The comprehensive net foreign exchange settlement amount reached 8.4 billion USD in March, marking the first positive value since October 2024 [4][33] - In March, the merchandise trade net foreign exchange settlement surplus increased from 16.7 billion USD in February to 25.5 billion USD, while the net foreign exchange settlement deficits for services and income remained stable [37][34] Bond Market Dynamics - The average rates for DR007 and R007 in April were 1.82% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating a further easing of the funding environment [7] - The PBOC has not conducted government bond transactions in the secondary market for four consecutive months, but is expected to engage in net bond purchases in the coming months to align with a large-scale bond issuance plan [16][19] - The net supply of government bonds decreased significantly in April compared to previous months, with a total net supply of approximately 4.85 trillion RMB, which is 35% of the annual issuance estimate [21][19]