期货基差

Search documents
LPG早报-20250526
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 03:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market are generally weak, with expected supply growth, increased chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price Changes - On Friday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong decreased by 30 to 4460, in East China by 30 to 4493, and in South China by 20 to 4820; for imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 26 to 4953 and in South China by 20 to 4940; the price of ether - post - carbon four remained stable at 4740, and the lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4460 [1] - The PG futures market was weak, the basis of the 06 contract strengthened to 385, the 06 - 07 monthly spread remained flat at 54, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread slightly strengthened to 127; the US to Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1] - Civil gas prices dropped significantly, ether - post - carbon four prices rebounded, and the cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4480; the PG futures market declined due to weak spot prices. The 06 contract basis was 385 (+139), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 54 (-27), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 61 (-15) [1] External Market Conditions - FEI and MB prices fell, CP prices rose, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated; the internal - external price difference decreased significantly, and FEI - MOPJ decreased slightly; freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East declined [1] Fundamentals - Port arrivals decreased significantly, exports were sluggish, and overall port inventories decreased; factory inventories were basically flat [1] - In terms of supply, the commercial volume increased slightly and is expected to continue to increase; at the same time, expected arrivals are expected to increase [1] Demand Conditions - The PDH operating rate rebounded to 61.15% (+3.17pct), production margins declined, and the PDH operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week [1] - The alkylation operating rate and commercial volume remained flat, profitability dropped significantly to - 40.5 (-308), and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [1] - MTBE prices generally fell by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, MTBE production was basically flat, and the profits of gas - fractionation etherification and isomerization etherification declined. It is expected that MTBE supply will fluctuate slightly, gasoline demand will be difficult to improve, and prices may not fluctuate much [1] - As the temperature rises, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]
LPG早报-20250523
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 08:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG supply is expected to gradually increase, chemical demand is expected to recover, and combustion demand will continue to decline. Overall, the LPG market may continue its oscillating downward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4490, in East China decreased by 58 to 4523, and in South China remained stable at 4840. For imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 11 to 4979, and in South China increased by 10 to 4960. The price of etherified C4 remained stable at 4740. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490. The PG futures market showed weak performance, with the basis of the 06 contract strengthening to 309, the 06 - 07 monthly spread remaining unchanged at 54, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread slightly weakening to 130. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Changes - Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with prices in South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong etherified C4. The center of gravity of the PG futures market moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 81 (-23), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 76 (-8). After the tariff easing, the overseas prices increased, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly rising to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargo decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - foreign price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East increased slightly, reaching 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, high arrival volumes and little change in demand led to inventory accumulation at ports, while factory inventories remained basically unchanged. The domestic LPG commercial volume was 504,100 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease. In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), but production margins recovered, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1,100), and the profit increased significantly to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%), with the operating rate expected to increase slightly next week. Crude oil rebound pushed MTBE prices up from a decline, but due to limited supply, stable exports, manufacturers' intention to hold prices, and increased downstream resistance, MTBE prices are expected to decline slightly. In terms of combustion demand, as the temperature rises, it is expected to decline [1].
芳烃橡胶早报-20250522
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 00:49
音紧像胶呈报 图1 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/22 P 不 A A POY 1 仓单+有 PX CFR PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 TA基美 50D/4 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 台湾 工差 效预报 日本 न्ह 解价差 荷 负荷 8F 图H 2025/0 5030 7050 80258 0.30 64.5 572 853 99.00 281.0 353 65 86.9 76.9 215 5/15 2025/0 70046 65.4 ୧୧୧ 839 4990 7050 85.92 274.0 386 103 87.9 76.9 200 0.25 5/16 (图H 2025/0 75 7025 87.9 200 0.35 65.5 569 841 4995 88.97 272.0 380 76.9 68831 5/19 2025/0 827 4860 7025 90.39 257.0 320 67816 0.25 65.4 570 205 87.9 76.9 165 5/20 2025/0 图H 65.4 570 4895 90.39 87.9 125 ...
LPG早报-20250521
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:06
| | LPG早报 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 丙烷CFR华 丙烷CIF日 CP预测合 华南液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 主力基差 | 华东液化 气 | | 南 | 本 | MB丙烷 现货 | 同价 | | | 纸面进口 利润 | | | 2025/05/1 4 | 5000 | 4931 | 4670 | 625 | 570 | 80 | 582 | 4690 | 8000 | -160 | 514 | | 2025/05/1 5 | 4940 | 4909 | 4600 | 620 | 564 | 78 | 583 | 4640 | 7800 | -179 | 531 | | 2025/05/1 6 | 4940 | 4906 | 4590 | 615 | 565 | 78 | 587 | 4520 | 775 ...
【金十期货图示】金十期货APP独家整理:05月19日国内期货基差数据已更新,点击查看。
news flash· 2025-05-19 07:40
金十期货图示 金十期货APP独家整理:05月19日国内期货基差数据已更新,点击查看。 | 广保 | 上内 | 70/H4 | UNNEZI | 120071 | 1100 | U. 970 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅 | 华东 | 元/吨 | 8850 | 8110 | 740 | 8.4% | | 沪铜 | 上海 | 元/吨 | 78100 | 77820 | 280 | 0.4% | | 沪锌 | 上海 | 元/吨 | 22620 | 22455 | 165 | 0.7% | | 沪锡 三 | 上海 | 元/吨 | 265000 | 264860 | 140 | 0.1% | | 沪铝 | 上海 | 元/吨 | 20220 | 20110 | 110 | 0.5% | | 沪金 | 上金所黄金 t+d | 元/克 | 734 二 | 755.86 | -21.86 -3.0% | | | 氧化铝 | 贵州 | 元/吨 | 3047 | 3127 | -80 | -2.6% | | 沪铝 | 史上海 | 元/吨 | 16775 | ...
LPG早报-20250519
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to gradually increase in supply, with chemical demand expected to recover and combustion demand continuing to decline. Overall, it may continue the trend of fluctuating downward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: On Friday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong decreased by 10 to 4590, in East China decreased by 3 to 4906, and remained stable in South China at 4940; for imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 8 to 5045, and in South China decreased by 10 to 5040; etherified C4 decreased by 12 to 4520. The PG futures price declined, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 256, the spread between 06 - 07 contracts slightly weakened to 81, and the spread between 07 - 09 contracts remained basically flat at 159. The US - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The PG futures center of gravity moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the spread between 06 - 07 contracts was 81 (-23), and the spread between 07 - 08 contracts was 76 (-8). After the tariff eased, the overseas prices rose, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly increasing to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargoes decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - overseas price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East slightly increased to 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: High arrival volumes and little change in demand led to port inventory accumulation, while factory inventory remained basically flat. The LPG commercial volume was 50.41 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease [1]. - **Chemical Demand**: The PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), and production margins recovered. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will slightly increase next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1100), and the profit significantly expanded to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%). It is expected that the operating rate will slightly increase next week. Crude oil rebound drove MTBE to stop falling and rise. With low supply, stable exports, and manufacturers' intention to support prices, but increasing downstream resistance, it is expected that MTBE will slightly decline, but the overall decline will be limited [1]. - **Combustion Demand**: With the increase in temperature, combustion demand is expected to show a downward trend [1].
《金融》日报-20250516
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 03:29
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月16日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较削一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -34.40 | 1.41 | 11.00% | 9.40% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -17.30 | -1.11 | 15.90% | 10.80% | | | IC期现价差 | -92.30 | 9.02 | 6.90% | 4.10% | | | IM期现价差 | -108.04 | 9.33 | 90.00% | 7.00% | | | 次月-当月 | -35.40 | 0.20 | 2.40% | 9.20% | | | 委員-景月 | -100.00 | 1.60 | 1.20% | 7.10% | | | 远月-当月 | -137.00 | 2.60 | 1.20% | 9.70% | | F跨期 ...
LPG早报-20250516
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:29
免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据,客户应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交 易后果,凡据此入市者,我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权,不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我们均不承担任何责任。 | LPG早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/16 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
《金融》日报-20250512
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 05:26
| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 叶倩宁 2025年5月12日 | | | Z0016628 | | | 价差 品种 最新值 较前一日变化 历史1年分位数 | | | | 全历史分位数 | | F期现价差 -37.56 -0.66 | | 8.60% | | 7.80% | | -17.81 -3.10 期现价差 H期现价差 | | 14.70% | | 10.30% | | IC期验价套 -116.92 | -3.12 | 4.90% | | 2.10% | | IM期现价去 -136.88 | 2.40 | 85.00% | | 4.90% | | 次月-当月 -31.60 | -1.80 | 4.50% | | 11.00% | | 李月-当月 -96.60 | -6.20 | 0.40% | | 7.40% | | 元月-当月 -133.40 | -12.20 | 0.40% | | 10.50% | | IF跨期价差 -65.00 李月-次月 | -4.40 | 0.40% ...
股指对冲周报-20250509
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 14:05
期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 1. 股指期货基差情况 表 1:股指期货基差 | | | IF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IF2505 | -18.57 | -5.96 | 12.61 | 8.1% | | IF2506 | -54.37 | -37.56 | 16.81 | 9.5% | | IF2509 | -107.37 | -102.56 | 4.81 | 8.5% | | IF2512 | -132.77 | -139.36 | -6.59 | 7.2% | | | | IH | | | | 合约代码 | 上周基差 | 本周基差 | 基差变动 | 指增年化收益 | | IH2505 | -5.96 | -0.41 | 5.55 | 2.2% | | IH2506 | -23.96 | -17.81 | 6.15 | 6.9% | | IH2509 | -55.16 | -52.01 | 3.15 | 6.6% | | IH2512 | -57.36 | -57.01 ...