Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Report's Core View - The spot bottom of live pigs has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large [1] - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live pig spot price is 11,330 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; Sichuan's is 11,250 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; and Guangdong's is 12,060 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,595 yuan/ton (down 700 yuan), 12,165 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan), and 11,970 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 50,927 lots (down 7,793 lots) and the open interest is 58,336 lots (down 17,117 lots); for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 40,716 lots (up 3,662 lots) and the open interest is 84,790 lots (up 8,369 lots); for the 2603 contract, the trading volume is 16,259 lots (up 1,932 lots) and the open interest is 57,549 lots (up 4,944 lots) [2] - **Price Differences**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 265 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan), - 835 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan), and - 640 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan) respectively; the 11 - 1 spread is - 570 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread is 195 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Categories Black Series - Silicon Iron (SF511): Futures price is 5678, spot price is 5610, basis is 68, basis rate is 1.21%, historical quantile is 90% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601): Futures price is 5950, spot price is 5820, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.23%, historical quantile is 30% [1] - Rebar (RB2601): Futures price is 3240, spot price is 3097, basis is 143, basis rate is 4.62%, historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601): Futures price is 3289, spot price is 3350, basis is -61, basis rate is -1.85%, historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - Iron Ore (I2601): Futures price is 837, spot price is 784, basis is 53, basis rate is 6.80%, historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - Coke (J2601): Futures price is 1647, spot price is 1613, basis is 34, basis rate is 2.09%, historical quantile is 44.16% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601): Futures price is 1160, spot price is 1154, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.52%, historical quantile is 24.80% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2511): Futures price is 82370, spot price is 85510, basis is -3140, basis rate is -3.67%, historical quantile is 28.75% [1] - Aluminum (AL2511): Futures price is 20690, spot price is 20730, basis is -40, basis rate is -0.19%, historical quantile is 41.04% [1] - Alumina (AO2601): Futures price is 2904, spot price is 2982, basis is 78, basis rate is 2.61%, historical quantile is 49.55% [1] - Zinc (ZN2511): Futures price is 21560, spot price is 21800, basis is -240, basis rate is -1.10%, historical quantile is 20.83% [1] - Tin (SN2511): Futures price is 272410, spot price is 271400, basis is 1010, basis rate is 0.37%, historical quantile is 61.45% [1] - Nickel (NI2511): Futures price is 121100, spot price is 121200, basis is -100, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 300 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2511): Futures price is 13220, spot price is 12760, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.61%, historical quantile is 86.69% [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2511): Futures price is 73920, spot price is 73550, basis is -370, basis rate is -0.50%, historical quantile is 49.11% [1] - Industrial Silicon (SI2511): Futures price is 8610, spot price is 840, basis is 7770, basis rate is 9.25%, historical quantile is 57.93% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512): Futures price is 866.5, spot price is 865, basis is -1.5, basis rate is -0.17%, historical quantile is 11.80% [1] - Silver (AG2512): Futures price is 10939, spot price is 10878, basis is -61, basis rate is -0.56%, historical quantile is 5.30% [1] Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Meal (RM601): Futures price is 2416, spot price is 2530, basis is 114, basis rate is 4.72%, historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Ole01): Futures price is 10093, spot price is 10340, basis is 247, basis rate is 2.45%, historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - Corn (C2511): Futures price is 2159, spot price is 2280, basis is 121, basis rate is 5.60%, historical quantile is 92.40% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2511): Futures price is 2483, spot price is 2550, basis is 67, basis rate is 2.70%, historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - Soybean Meal (NSe01): Futures price is 2890, spot price is 2933, basis is -43, basis rate is -1.47%, historical quantile is 29.90% [1] - Soybean Oil (V2601): Futures price is 8150, spot price is 8300, basis is 150, basis rate is 1.84%, historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - Palm Oil (P2601): Futures price is 9234, spot price is 9318, basis is -84, basis rate is -0.90%, historical quantile is 6.00% [1] - Cotton (CF601): Futures price is 13350, spot price is 14942, basis is 1592, basis rate is 11.93%, historical quantile is 7.50% [1] - Sugar (SR601): Futures price is 5479, spot price is 5890, basis is 411, basis rate is 7.00%, historical quantile is 73.90% [1] - Apple (AP601): Futures price is 8486, spot price is 8600, basis is 114, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 25.80% [1] - Red Dates (C601): Futures price is 10915, spot price is 9500, basis is -1415, basis rate is -14.86%, historical quantile is 33.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX511): Futures price is 6686.1, spot price is 6670, basis is -16.1, basis rate is -0.24%, historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - PTA (TA601): Futures price is 4585, spot price is 4652, basis is 67, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 28.60% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601): Futures price is 4295, spot price is 4224, basis is -71, basis rate is -1.68%, historical quantile is 83.80% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511): Futures price is 6435, spot price is 6336, basis is -99, basis rate is -1.54%, historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - Styrene (EB251): Futures price is 6915, spot price is 6932, basis is -17, basis rate is -0.25%, historical quantile is 23.30% [1] - Methanol (MA601): Futures price is 2250, spot price is 2262, basis is -12, basis rate is -0.53%, historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - LLDPE (L2601): Futures price is 7175, spot price is 7181, basis is -6, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - PP (PP2601): Futures price is 6785, spot price is 6903, basis is -118, basis rate is -1.71%, historical quantile is 4.10% [1] - PVC (V2601): Futures price is 4896, spot price is 4730, basis is -166, basis rate is -3.40%, historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH601): Futures price is 2515, spot price is 2500, basis is -15, basis rate is -0.60%, historical quantile is 45.80% [1] - LPG (PG2511): Futures price is 4548, spot price is 4293, basis is 255, basis rate is 5.94%, historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - Asphalt (BU2511): Futures price is 3466, spot price is 3500, basis is 34, basis rate is 0.98%, historical quantile is 60.00% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2511): Futures price is 11500, spot price is 11340, basis is 160, basis rate is 1.41%, historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - Glass (FG601): Futures price is 1128, spot price is 1228, basis is -100, basis rate is -8.14%, historical quantile is 33.54% [1] - Soda Ash (SA601): Futures price is 1188, spot price is 1278, basis is -90, basis rate is -7.04%, historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601): Futures price is 15470, spot price is 14700, basis is -770, basis rate is -5.08%, historical quantile is 14.00% [1] Financial Futures - IF2512.CFF: Futures price is 4604.6, spot price is 4620.1, basis is -15.5, basis rate is -0.34%, historical quantile is 28.30% [1] - IH2512.CHE: Futures price is 2973, spot price is 2976, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.10%, historical quantile is 73.80% [1] - IC2512.CFE: Futures price is 7232.2, spot price is 7350.6, basis is -118.4, basis rate is -1.61%, historical quantile is 1.10% [1] - IM2512.CFE: Futures price is 7337.4, spot price is 7497.8, basis is -160.4, basis rate is -2.14%, historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512): Futures price is 102.33, spot price is 102.34, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512): Futures price is 105.51, spot price is 99.22, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 25.40% [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512): Futures price is 107.66, spot price is 105.87, basis is 0.21, basis rate is 0.19%, historical quantile is 42.40% [4] - 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512): Futures price is 113.79, spot price is 120.74, basis is 0.36, basis rate is 0.32%, historical quantile is 51.20% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data and changes in various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, container shipping, etc., which can help investors understand the market trends and price movements of these products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF**: The current - spot spread is 4.78, with a 23.30% change from the previous day and a 12.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Various inter - term spreads also show different values and changes [1]. - **IH**: The current - spot spread is 0.86, with a 0.57 change from the previous day and a 59.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Different inter - term spreads have their own values and quantiles [1]. - **IC**: The current - spot spread is 1.60%, with a 0.10% change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads vary [1]. - **IM**: The current - spot spread is - 224.71, with a 6.31 change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads are also provided [1]. - **Cross - variety ratios**: Such as CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., show different values and changes [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **TS**: The basis is 0.0177, with a 0.0235 change from the previous day and a 12.80% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are also presented [2]. - **TF**: The basis is 1.1992, with a 0.1310 change from the previous day and a 41.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are given [2]. - **T**: The basis is - 0.1123, with a 0.5994 change from the previous day and a 2.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are provided [2]. - **TL**: The basis is 0.0860, with a 0.0140 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are included [2]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 854.72 on September 25, down 0.61% from the previous day; the AG2512 contract closed at 10411, up 0.13% [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 3780.50 on September 25, up 0.32% from the previous day; the COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 45.47, up 3.07% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3748.41 on September 25, up 0.34% from the previous day; London silver was at 45.13, up 2.83% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - SHFE gold主力 was - 2.73, with a 1.00 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical 1 - year quantile; silver TD - SHFE silver主力 was - 58, with a - 10 change from the previous day and a 2.40% historical 1 - year quantile [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 83.14, down 2.67% from the previous day; SHFE gold/silver was 82.10, down 0.75% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, up 0.5% from the previous day; the US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.61% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 65634 kg on September 25, up 8.41% from the previous day; SHFE silver inventory was 1156855 kg, down 0.43% [3]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: On September 26, MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate was 1622 USD/FEU, down 2.47% from the previous day; CMA CGM's was 1904, up 4.96% [4]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on September 22 was 1254.92, down 12.87% from September 15; the SCFI comprehensive index on September 19 was 1198.21, down 14.30% from September 12 [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract on September 25 was 1696.2, up 6.81% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract was - 227.4, with a 4393.68% change from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on September 26 was 3310.22 TEU, with no change from the previous day; the Shanghai port on - time rate in August was 18.31%, down 43.80% from July [4].

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core Data - **Futures-Spot Spread**: F futures-spot spread was 35.98, up 2.63 from the previous day, at the 9.10% historical percentile; H futures-spot spread was 5.49, up 4.66, at the 82.70% historical percentile. IC futures-spot spread was -240.11, down 28.19, at the 0.40% historical percentile; IM futures-spot spread was -281.07, down 21.79, at the 5.00% historical percentile [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For IF, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts was -14.80, down 1.80. For other spreads like far - month minus next - month, there were various values and changes [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, and IC/IH had different values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core Data - **IRR and Basis**: On September 23, 2025, TS basis had an IRR of 1.4835, down 0.0248 from the previous day, at the 20.60% percentile since listing; TF basis had an IRR of 1.4550, down 0.0067, at the 36.50% percentile; T basis had an IRR of 1.4427, up 0.0779, at the 49.80% percentile; TL basis had an IRR of 1.2299, up 0.4924, at the 33.60% percentile [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For TS, the spread between current - quarter and next - quarter was 0.0760, up 0.0100, at the 41.30% percentile. Similar data were provided for other contracts and spreads [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T had specific values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 8.94 yuan or 1.06% from the previous day; the AG2512 contract closed at 10349 yuan/kg, up 32 yuan or 0.31%. COMEX gold and silver futures also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures was -5.86, up 0.71 from the previous day, at the 1.60% historical percentile; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver futures was -74, unchanged, at the 0.40% historical percentile [5]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and上期所 gold/silver had changes. Interest rates like the 10 - year US Treasury yield and exchange rates like the US dollar index also had fluctuations [5]. - **Inventory and Position**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 2.76% to 59013 kg; the inventory of COMEX silver increased by 0.45% to 526748211 [5]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report Core Data - **Freight Rates**: SCFI (US West) was 1636, down 734.0 or -30.97% from the previous period; SCFI (US East) was 2557, down 750.0 or -22.68% [9][10]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Contracts like EC2602, EC2604, etc., had price declines. The basis of the main contract (EC2510) was -166.4, down 152.1 from the previous day, with a huge percentage change of 1066.76% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3309.29 FTEU on September 24. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased from 32.58 in July to 18.31 in August, a decline of 43.80% [9]. Report 5: Spot Quotes for Container Shipping Core Data - **Shanghai - Europe Future 6 - Week Freight Rates**: On September 22, MAERSK's freight rate was 1576 US dollars/FEU, up 40 US dollars or 2.60% from the previous day; CMA CGM's rate had a 5.98% increase; MSC's rate remained unchanged [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output shows high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installation is surging but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory is increasing weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 80,190 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 45 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 72.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,650 tons with a daily change of - 1,225 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 513,900 tons with no daily change [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,080 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,900 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 45.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 47,825 tons with a daily change of - 1,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,400 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,260 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,200 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 177.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 228,444 tons with a daily change of - 6 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,000 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 45.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 220,300 tons with a daily change of - 2,375 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,510 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,280 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,020 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,505 tons with a daily change of - 140 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened high and moved low on Monday. In the morning, it might have been trading on the price support in mid - October (CMA price increase) and the suspension of the China - Europe Railway Express (with limited actual impact), and then the decline was likely affected by the falling spot prices. The basis for October was around 60 points, and the spread between October and December was - 560 (-20) [1]. - The price is still falling in early October. There is an expected price increase in late October, but under the suppression of the off - season, the expectation may not be well - realized, and it is more likely to stabilize. In the medium term, there are multiple upward drivers [1]. - The valuation of the December contract is not low. The 02 contract may have a higher cost - performance ratio for long - allocation than the December contract because the Spring Festival in 2026 is relatively late (February 17, 2026), and the settlement price of the 02 contract may be higher. The current valuation of the 04 contract is also high, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - allocation in the short term, but its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to fluctuations. Therefore, the long - 02 and short - 04 spread trading can be considered. In addition, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position reduction, and the risk of capital position transfer for the October contract with a large number of open positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Information - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1093.7, 1653.9, 1573.6, 1275.0, and 1454.5 respectively, with changes of 4.11%, 1.47%, 0.71%, 2.00%, and 1.07%. The open interest of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 was 46030 (-1685), 21956 (-124), 7398 (122), 8922 (81), and 0 (-33) respectively [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 were - 560.2 and 80.3 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 19.3 and 12.8, and week - on - week changes of - 56.1 and - 21.4 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Information - **Spot Freight Indexes**: The SCHIC SCFI (European line) was 1440.24 dollars/TEU on September 15 and 1052 dollars/TEU on September 19, with decreases of 8.06% and 8.84% compared to the previous period. The CCFI was 1470.97 points on September 19, a decrease of 4.31% from the previous period. The NCFI was 673.61 points on September 19, a decrease of 7.65% from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week 39 (End of September)**: The average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was initially 1500 US dollars and then rose to 1570 US dollars. The PA Alliance's quotation was 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance's was 1600 - 1720 US dollars [2]. - **Weeks 40 - 41 (Early October)**: The average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market). MSK's quotation was 1400 US dollars, the PA Alliance's was 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest of the year), and the OA Alliance's was 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2]. - **Monday Changes**: OOCL's price dropped 50 to 1400 US dollars, and MSC's dropped 100 to 1490 US dollars. HPL - SPOT quoted 1435 for early October, 2035 for late October, and 2525 for November (HPL - SPOT's quotations usually fluctuate greatly and have limited reference value) [2]. 3.4 Related News - As of September 22, 2025, 157 out of 193 UN member states had recognized the State of Palestine. Israel stated that its war goal "is not limited to Gaza", and the rift in the Western world's consensus on Israel's policy was gradually widening [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. The night - session copper price rose 0.29%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installation surges year - on - year but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance output growth slows; the real estate sector remains weak. Multiple factors are intertwined [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. The night - session zinc price dropped 0.61%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are generally rising, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and the real estate sector remains weak. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - session copper price closed up 0.29%. Smelting output is growing despite tight concentrate supply and pressured profits. The power industry has positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase with possible future slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and real estate is weak. Copper prices may have range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc price closed down 0.61%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected output increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and real estate is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations. Suggest to focus on the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,910 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 9,997 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 64.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 148,875 tons with a daily decrease of 900 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,676 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 5.43 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with a daily increase of 30,125 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,045 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,899 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 50.91 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 48,825 tons with a daily decrease of 150 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 179.40 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,450 tons with a daily decrease of 18 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 115 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 222,675 tons with a daily decrease of 2,675 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 268,770 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 1,910 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 34,220 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 124.41 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,645 tons with no daily change [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For pure benzene, domestic attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking Unit 2. There will be concentrated new capacity additions from August to September. Domestic existing unit operations are still stable, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick - up has reached its peak and declined but remains at a decent level, leading to a decline in port inventory. Downstream operations of pure benzene are recovering from the bottom, but overall operations are still low, and short - term maintenance of styrene has dragged down the rigid demand for pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, downstream pick - up during the peak season remains at a relatively high level, and port inventory is waiting to be further reduced. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still high. There will be short - term maintenance in the first and middle of September, leading to a decline in operations, and port inventory has started to decline. However, operations may recover in the second half of September. Among styrene's downstream products, the operations of ABS and PS have slightly declined, EPS operations are decent, and ABS has a large inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [9][14][20] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [22][25][33][40] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, and ABS operating rate and production profit [53][55][58] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate and production profit, phenol - acetone operating rate and production profit, aniline operating rate and production profit, adipic acid operating rate and production profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production profit, nylon filament production profit, bisphenol A production profit, PC production profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production profit, pure MDI production profit, and polymer MDI production profit [63][65][74][86] Strategies - Unilateral: None [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Go for a positive spread arbitrage when the EB2510 - EB2511 spread is low [4] - Cross - Product: Temporarily go for widening the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - I05 closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 763.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; I01 closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [3] - The spread between I05 - I09 was 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; I09 - I01 was -41.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; I01 - I05 was 22.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [3] Group 3: Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, prices and basis values changed. For example, the price of Carajás fines (Carajás) was 919 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan, and the basis was 76 yuan, up 2 yuan [5] - Some varieties saw price decreases, like PB fines, whose price dropped by 2.0 yuan to 795 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 3 yuan to 40 yuan [5] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties were added: Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10] - Brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others at 0 yuan/ton [10] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [10] Group 5: Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB lump and PB fines was 131.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; the spread between PB fines and FMG mixed fines was 42.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan [12] - Some spreads increased, such as the spread between Carajás fines and PB fines, which rose by 5.0 yuan to 124.0 yuan/ton [12] Group 6: Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and relevant qualifications [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking 2. From August to September, there is a concentrated increase in new production capacity, with domestic existing plants operating, and a slowdown in the rhythm of imports. Downstream提货 has reached its peak and declined, but the volume is still acceptable, leading to a decline in port inventories. However, the downstream operations of pure benzene remain weak, with significant inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain, and a decline in CPL operations. Aniline operations have also decreased again, with inventory pressure in the MDI downstream of aniline. Phenol operations have also decreased, affected by bisphenol A. The previously stable - operating styrene is gradually undergoing maintenance, which may affect the demand for pure benzene提货, and the downstream performance is below expectations [3]. - In the styrene market, the volume of downstream提货 in the peak season remains at a relatively high level. The port basis of EB continues to strengthen slightly, and the port inventory of EB still needs further reduction. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still relatively high. There will be short - term maintenance of EB in the first and middle of September, with operations gradually reaching a peak and then declining, and port inventories starting to decline. However, operations will pick up again in the second half of September. Among the downstream of EB, the recovery of PS and EPS operations is satisfactory, and the operations of ABS have also increased from a low level, but the inventory pressure is large [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - term Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 82 yuan/ton (+1), and the spot - M2 spread of East China pure benzene is - 15 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 42 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 136 US dollars/ton (+6 US dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+7 US dollars/ton). The US - South Korea spread of pure benzene is 53.6 US dollars/ton (-6.0 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 368 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 13.40 million tons (-1.00 million tons) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (-17,500 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 78,000 tons (-9,000 tons), and the operating rate is 75.0% (-4.8%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 142 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 61.02% (+8.49%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 108 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 61.90% (+0.90%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 216 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 70.00% (+1.00%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1875 yuan/ton (-35), and the operating rate is 86.21% (-4.21%) [1]. - Phenol - ketone: The production profit is - 247 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate of phenol is 70.50% (+1.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 29 yuan/ton (+70), and the operating rate is 65.21% (-2.75%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1378 yuan/ton (+14), and the operating rate is 64.20% (+4.20%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - term: Do a positive spread for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: Do a widening spread for the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread in the short - term when it is low [4].