甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/09 | 日期 | 西北电石 | 山东烧碱 | 电石法-华 | 乙烯法-华 | 电石法-华南 | 电石法-西 | 进口美金价 （CFR中 | 出口利润 | 西北综合利 | 华北综合利 | 基差(高端 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 东 | 东 | | 北 | 国） | | 润 | 润 | 交割品) | | 2025/12/02 | 2500 | 742 | 4560 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 339 | - | - | -70 | | 2025/12/03 | 2550 | 742 | 4550 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 177 | - | - | -50 | 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/0 2 801 2125 2100 2435 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest variety arbitrage data of futures on December 9, 2025, covering multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][4][19][25][38][49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from December 2 to December 8, 2025. The basis decreased from 1.6 yuan/ton on December 2 to - 22.4 yuan/ton on December 8, while the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) remained at 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of fuel oil was 3.31 yuan/ton on December 8 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 365 yuan/ton on December 8 [8] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2236 yuan/ton on December 8 [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 137.0 yuan/ton on December 8 [19] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 12.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.00 on December 8 [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper was - 590 yuan/ton on December 8 [26] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spread, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 8, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 8.19 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 65 yuan/ton on December 8 [39] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 was 35 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.80 on December 8 [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 2 to December 8, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 8.55 on December 8 [50] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.4 [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures, covering multiple sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, providing various data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from December 1 to December 5, 2025: December 1st was 66.0 yuan/ton, December 2nd was 16.0 yuan/ton, December 3rd was - 3.4 yuan/ton, December 4th was - 10 yuan/ton, and December 5th was - 16 yuan/ton. The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided, along with corresponding price ratios [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 95 yuan/ton. - Inter - variety spreads data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, LLDPE - PVC was 2258 yuan/ton, and LLDPE - PP was 400 yuan/ton. - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are given [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar was 20 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was - 16.0 yuan/ton. - Inter - variety spreads data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are presented. For example, on December 5th, rebar/iron ore was 4.02, and rebar/coke was 19393.1. - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are given [20][21] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of copper was - 790 yuan/ton, and that of aluminum was - 195 yuan/ton [30] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 5, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 23.05, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.94 [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 55 yuan/ton, and that of soybeans No.2 was 84.38 yuan/ton. - Inter - period spreads data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. - Inter - variety spreads data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on December 5, 2025 are given [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 1 to December 5, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 5th, the basis of CSI 300 was 10.14, and that of SSE 50 was 4.61. - Inter - period spreads data for the next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 190 [48]

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-05 港口去库继续兑现 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差-78元/吨（+0），太仓-内蒙-550价差-446元/吨（-10），太仓-鲁南-250价差-373元 /吨（+0）；鲁南-太仓-100价差23元/吨（+0）；广东-华东-180价差-202元/吨（+5）；华东-川渝-200价差-253元/吨（-10）。 市场分析 港口方面。港口库存延续回落，回流内地套利支撑港口提货，江苏、浙江、华南三地均兑现去库。伊朗装置装置 已集中兑现冬检，但仍要等待12月装船减少的兑现，因11月装船量级仍高，且11月部分卸港延后至计入12月，12 月进口压力预计年内高位，短期港口库存压力仍大。另外，关注太仓主流仓储企业对伊朗船的接货意愿。 内地方面，煤头开工仍同期偏高，内地工厂库存小幅回升；MTO方面，阳煤MTO检修中，鲁西MTO低负荷状态； 关注联泓二期MTO年底投产进度。传统下游开工小幅回升，醋酸开工延续低位，甲醛淡季负荷小幅反弹，MTBE 开工继续维持高位。 策略 单边：MA2605谨慎逢低做多套保 跨期：MA2605-MA2609价差逢低做扩 跨品种：无 内地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 5, 2025, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][2][5][7][9][10][19][20][26][29][34][40][50][51] 3. Summary of Each Section Thermal Coal - The table shows the basis and inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of thermal coal from November 28 to December 4, 2025. For example, on December 4, 2025, the basis was - 10 yuan/ton [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 4, 2025, the basis of INE crude oil was 5.07 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1538 [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are presented. For example, on December 4, 2025, the basis of rubber was - 390 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, for rubber, the 5 - 1 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are shown. For example, on December 4, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2280 yuan/ton [10] Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 4, 2025, the basis of rebar was 145.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, for rebar, the 5 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are shown. For example, on December 4, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.98 [19] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 4, 2025, the basis of copper was - 10 yuan/ton [29] - **London Market**: On December 4, 2025, data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was 50.44, and the import loss of copper was 1669.73 yuan [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 4, 2025, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 85 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, for soybeans No.1, the 5 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The report mentions inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch, but specific data is not fully presented [40] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 28 to December 4, 2025 are provided. For example, on December 4, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 was 15.97 [51] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next - month - current - month, next - quarter - current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month - current - month spread was - 178 [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures products on December 4, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from November 27 to December 3, 2025, shows a decreasing trend, from 16.6 yuan/ton on November 27 to - 3.4 yuan/ton on December 3. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are all 0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are presented, along with their price ratios and changes [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided, as well as inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 27 to December 3, 2025 [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month. Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are also presented. The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are shown [18][20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are provided [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - For the London market, LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 3, 2025, are presented [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - The basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are given. Inter - period spreads for multiple agricultural products, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, are provided, as well as inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 27 to December 3, 2025 [40][41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 27 to December 3, 2025, are presented. Inter - period spreads such as next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are also provided [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 3, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from November 26 to December 2, 2025, is presented, but specific numerical values in the table are incomplete [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided, including specific numerical values such as basis and ratio [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are given [9] - Inter - period spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [10] - Inter - variety spreads data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [20] - Inter - period spreads data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month spreads [19] - Inter - variety spreads data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [19] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [29] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on December 2, 2025, are provided [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [42] - Inter - period spreads data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [42] - Inter - variety spreads data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [53] - Inter - period spreads data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads, are given [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. Consider long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage operations for the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for the January contract [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, with an operating range of 750 - 820 [5][7]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures are expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts. - Coking coal futures are also expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose from 3117 to 3167 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3288 to 3320 yuan/ton. - Steel production costs and profits showed different changes. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 19 yuan/ton [2]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.7%, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.9%. - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.3%, the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.6%, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.2%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the inventory cost of Carajás fines increased by 1.2%, and the 01 - contract basis of Carajás fines increased by 40.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 4.2%, the global weekly shipping volume increased by 1.4%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3%. - The demand indicators such as the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output also decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7% [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices rebounded, while some spot prices decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract rose by 2.9%, and the coking coal 01 contract rose by 2.4%. The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 3.04% [8]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.7%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%. - Some coal mines stopped production, with a total approved capacity of 540 million tons, and are expected to resume production after short - term rectification [8]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the demand for coking coal and coke weakened to some extent [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, with coking plants and steel mills accumulating inventory and ports reducing inventory. - The overall coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal washing plants, ports, and coking enterprises reducing inventory, and coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills accumulating inventory [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This is a futures research report from Baocheng Futures, presenting variety arbitrage data on December 2, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis data of thermal coal from November 25 to December 1, 2025. The basis on December 1 was 6.6 yuan/ton, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - It provides basis and price ratio data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 25 to December 1, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 1 was 3.54 yuan/ton [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 1 was - 450 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - period Spread**: Spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 1 was 2238 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on December 1 was 176.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period Spread**: Spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 22.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 1 was 3.92 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on December 1 was - 70 yuan/ton [27] (2) London Market - Data including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on December 1, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 69.10, and the import loss was (1359.37) [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 1 was - 106 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spread**: Spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on December 1 was 1.84 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 1 was 21.09 [51] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the next - month vs current - month and next - quarter vs current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. are presented. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 16.0 [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel shows a strong and oscillating trend. With steel production cuts and inventory reduction, the contradictions in the steel market are not significant. Recently, steel demand has seasonally improved, and the stabilization and rise of coking coal and coke have pushed up the steel price center. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend within a range. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, attention can be paid to the arbitrage operation of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in the January contract [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly yesterday. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipments increased last week, while the arrivals at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the profit margins of steel mills continued to decline, the hot metal output decreased, and steel mill maintenance increased. The steel price oscillated and rebounded, providing room for raw material price increases. Looking ahead, with the decline in hot metal this week and signs of a bottoming-out rebound in steel prices, market expectations have started to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a significant drop in hot metal output, which supports iron ore demand. Iron ore is supported by downstream restocking on one hand and has a need for basis repair on the other hand. Therefore, iron ore futures will continue to oscillate strongly, with an operating range of 750 - 820 [5][7]. Coke - The coke futures oscillated and bottomed out yesterday. After the fourth round of price increases, the first round of price cuts by steel mills has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. On the supply side, the scope of price cuts for coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, and the coking profit has been somewhat repaired. The adjustment of coke prices lags behind that of coking coal. After coke enterprises raise prices and coking coal prices fall, the coking profit is repaired, and the start - up rate increases. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, maintenance has intensified, hot metal output has declined, steel prices have oscillated weakly, and steel mill profits have decreased, with a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants and steel mills have increased inventory, while ports have reduced inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. Coke futures have fallen in advance, basically over - anticipating the spot price cuts. Along with the oscillating rise of building materials, it may follow coking coal to rebound in advance. For strategies, it is regarded as a unilateral oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and the coke 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended [8]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom yesterday. The spot market continued to decline, and the futures showed signs of an early rebound. On the supply side, the coal prices in the Shanxi market have a wider range of price cuts, and the auction prices of various coal types have started to fall. Some coal mines have stopped production for rectification, with a total approved production capacity of 540,000 tons, and are expected to resume production after short - term rectification. The inventory at ports has continued to rise, and the Mongolian coal price has followed the futures down. On the demand side, steel mills' losses have increased, maintenance has intensified, hot metal output has declined, and after the coking profit has recovered, the start - up rate has slightly increased, and the restocking demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coking enterprises have reduced inventory, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills have increased inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. For strategies, it is regarded as a unilateral oscillating rebound, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150, and the coking coal 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,350 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 40 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3,167 yuan/ton, 3,206 yuan/ton, and 3,134 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50 yuan/ton, 52 yuan/ton, and 24 yuan/ton [2]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,310 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, and 3,350 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 20 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3,320 yuan/ton, 3,333 yuan/ton, and 3,327 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 32 yuan/ton, 43 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2,990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; slab price is 3,730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu is 3,243 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the cost of converter rebar in Jiangsu is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China is - 45 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of hot - rolled coils in South China is - 15 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in East China is - 82 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the profit of rebar in North China is - 125 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal output is 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons (- 0.7%); the output of five major steel products is 855.7 tons, up 5.8 tons (0.7%). Rebar production is 206.1 tons, down 1.9 tons (- 0.9%), including an increase of 2.6 tons (9.5%) in electric - arc furnace production and a decrease of 4.4 tons (- 2.4%) in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production is 319.0 tons, up 3.0 tons (0.9%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1,400.8 tons, down 32.3 tons (- 2.3%); rebar inventory is 531.5 tons, down 21.9 tons (- 4.0%); hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 tons, down 1.2 tons (- 0.3%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 12.5 tons, up 2.0 tons (19.6%); the apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 tons, down 6.2 tons (- 0.7%); the apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 tons, down 2.8 tons (- 1.2%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 tons, down 4.2 tons (- 1.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: The warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines is 811.0 yuan/ton, up 9.9 yuan/ton (1.2%); PB fines is 845.8 yuan/ton, up 4.4 yuan/ton (0.5%); Brazilian blended fines is 857.3 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jinbuba fines is 844.6 yuan/ton, up 4.3 yuan/ton (0.5%). The 01 - contract basis for Carajás fines is 10.0 yuan/ton, up 2.9 yuan/ton (40.5%); for PB fines is 44.8 yuan/ton, down 2.6 yuan/ton (- 5.5%); for Brazilian blended fines is 50.3 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton (- 12.2%); for Jinbuba fines is 43.6 yuan/ton, down 2.7 yuan/ton (- 5.8%) [5]. Supply - The arrivals at 45 ports (weekly) are 2,699.3 tons, down 117.8 tons (- 4.2%); the global shipments (weekly) are 3,323.2 tons, up 44.8 tons (1.4%); the national monthly import volume is 11,130.9 tons, down 500.6 tons (- 4.3%) [5]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons (- 0.7%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) is 330.6 tons, up 3.6 tons (1.1%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6,554.9 tons, down 49.7 tons (- 0.8%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7,199.7 tons, down 149.3 tons (- 2.0%) [5]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (weekly, compared with Monday) is 15,210.12 tons, up 108.6 tons (0.7%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8,942.5 tons, down 58.8 tons (- 0.7%); the inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged [5]. Coke Prices and Spreads - For coke, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1,662 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (- 3.04%); the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1,603 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 - contract price is 1,620 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (2.9%); the 05 - contract price is 1,770 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton (2.3%) [8]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, up 1.1 tons (1.7%); the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, up 0.1 tons (0.2%) [8]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 234.7 tons, down 1.6 tons (- 0.7%) [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory is 884.7 tons, up 4.0 tons (0.5%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, up 6.5 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, up 3.2 tons (0.5%); the port inventory is 187.4 tons, down 5.6 tons (- 2.94%) [8]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated supply - demand gap of coke is - 3.6 tons, up 2.0 tons (55.34%) [8]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) is 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1,196 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.5%). The 01 - contract price is 1,093 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (2.4%); the 05 - contract price is 1,183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton (2.7%) [8]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 856.1 tons, down 4.6 tons (- 0.5%); the clean coal output is 438.8 tons, up 4.9 tons (1.1%) [8]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly influenced by the production of coke. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, up 1.1 tons (1.7%); the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, up 0.1 tons (0.2%) [8]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 107.6 tons, up 9.6 tons (9.8%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1,010.3 tons, down 27.9 tons (- 2.7%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, up 4.2 tons (0.5%); the port inventory is 294.5 tons, up 3.0 tons (1.0%) [8].