1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market has shifted from a volatile state to a stronger one. The positive domestic policies have led to a rotation and upward movement in the industrial product sector, and the optimistic sentiment is still being digested. For the current rebound of non - ferrous metals, it is regarded as a staged rebound. In operation, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term but avoid over - chasing the rise, and beware of the ebbing of sentiment. Also, continue to pay attention to the resonance between the supply - demand drivers of each variety and the macro - environment, as well as the trend changes of the leading varieties in this round of rise [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend and showed stronger performance. Trade negotiations and tariff impacts were temporarily mitigated. The market focused on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data remained resilient, and the Fed's independent decision - making led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies to counter in - fighting were implemented, and measures to stabilize growth in key industrial sectors were expected. Major projects were initiated, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend of new energy and black metals. Overseas, interest - rate cut expectations were still fluctuating, and trade negotiations were ongoing. Attention should be paid to trade - related information as August 1st approached [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been decreasing recently. The total supply this week is expected to be lower than last week, and downstream consumption is expected to increase. The Shanghai copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, and there are conditions for the price to stop falling and rise. The support area is 77000 - 78000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strengthened recently. The supply is expected to increase further, and the demand is mixed. The zinc market is expected to have a staged rebound. It is advisable to be bullish in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - term. The support area is 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to be bullish. For the 09 contract, the support area is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton. The alumina market is also expected to be bullish, with the 09 contract's support area at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton and the pressure area at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum alloy market is also recommended to be bullish in the short - term [5][13]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. Short - term bullish thinking is recommended. The support area is 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Lead**: The lead price has rebounded and then consolidated. The inventory has continued to rise, and downstream demand needs further recovery. The lead market is expected to continue to consolidate. The support area is 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has a pattern of overall supply surplus. There are signs of supply contraction in some areas, but downstream demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to have a staged rebound, with the upper target at 123000 - 125000 yuan/ton and the lower support at 115000 - 116000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. The support area is 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided. For example, the closing price of copper futures is 79740 yuan/ton, with a 0.05% increase; the closing price of zinc futures is 22945 yuan/ton, with a 0.09% increase; etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short changes, and influencing factors of different varieties such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 79830 yuan/ton, with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22770 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease; etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are provided, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, aluminum inventory and price trend comparison, etc. These charts help to analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends in the industry chain [22][23][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, including the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, aluminum basis and spot - futures price trend, etc., which are used for arbitrage analysis [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options, the weighted implied volatility of zinc options, the trading volume and open interest changes of aluminum options, etc., which are used for option analysis [65][67][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply of scrap aluminum provides strong support for the market. Despite the serious over - capacity and low operating rate in the recycled aluminum industry, the scrap aluminum supply shortage and the delayed arrival of the scrap peak in 2 - 3 years give a solid foundation to the market. There is a potential for a soft squeeze - out situation in the ADC12 market if the peak - season demand is fulfilled and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3][14][19]. - In terms of investment strategies, an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be considered currently, with profit expected to be realized in October. For unilateral trading, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Objects and Purposes - The research objects are 5 recycled aluminum plants and 2 scrap aluminum recyclers in Nantong, Baoying, Kunshan, and Shanghai. The purpose is to discuss aspects such as production capacity, output, scrap aluminum supply and demand, costs, prices, inventory strategies, and hedging intentions after the listing of aluminum alloy futures, and to think about subsequent trading logic [10]. 3.2. Key Research Findings and Analyses 3.2.1. Scrap Aluminum Procurement - Scrap aluminum procurement is tight due to limited imports (US tariff policies, port congestion in Malaysia, and environmental regulations in Thailand), limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and some large factories only purchasing from large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers to avoid information asymmetry risks [14][17]. 3.2.2. Production and Operation - The surveyed recycled aluminum plants have an operating rate higher than the industry average, with an aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio of over 50 - 60% and a maximum transportation distance of 300km. The ADC12 production ratio is around 40 - 50%, and orders are mainly long - term contracts. There is a potential soft squeeze - out risk in the ADC12 market [18][19]. - The use ratio of raw and cooked aluminum in scrap aluminum is flexibly adjusted according to prices. The natural gas consumption per ton is 80 cubic meters, and the total processing fee is 800 - 1200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive tax burden in Jiangsu and Shanghai is about 2 percentage points higher than that in Anhui, but some enterprises can make up for this cost through local procurement and sales, and product quality premiums [23][24]. - The raw material inventory of surveyed enterprises is generally 7 - 10 days' usage, and the finished product inventory is about 1000 - 1500 tons, with some enterprises having no finished product inventory but a high aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio [25]. 3.2.3. Warehouse Receipts - Currently, surveyed enterprises are open to delivering warehouse receipts but are mostly in a wait - and - see mode, mainly referring to the futures price and basis in September - October. The storage time of ADC12 alloy ingots is limited, and the high standards of futures delivery products may reduce the willingness of downstream enterprises to take delivery from the futures market [27]. 3.3. Investment Recommendations 3.3.1. Arbitrage - Consider the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL. The current price difference between ADC12 and A00 fluctuates between - 1500 yuan and + 500 yuan/ton, and the profit is expected to be realized in October. In the long - term, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may gradually decrease [28]. 3.3.2. Unilateral Trading - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. The tight scrap aluminum supply and the potential for a soft squeeze - out situation provide support for long - side trading [3][29]. 3.4. Research Minutes 3.4.1. Aluminum Alloy Plant A - Raw materials are mainly domestic scrap aluminum, with less than 20% imported. The annual production capacity is 24.99 tons, and the annual output is 22 tons. The ADC12 production ratio is over 40%. The enterprise does not stock finished products and sells based on orders [30]. 3.4.2. Aluminum Alloy Plant B - The import ratio of scrap aluminum is 30%, and the domestic ratio is 70%. The designed annual production capacity is 20 tons, and the current annual output is 7 - 8 tons. The enterprise plans to use a new production line for futures delivery products [33]. 3.4.3. Aluminum Alloy Plant C - Raw materials are mainly domestic. The Baoying base has a production capacity of 11.85 tons. The aluminum liquid ratio is over 60%, and the ADC12 ratio in aluminum ingots is less than 35%. The enterprise participates in hedging and has views on industry development [35][36]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy Plant D - The Kunshan production line has a total approved production capacity of 12 tons, and the Anhui production line will focus on delivery. The ADC12 production ratio is 20 - 30%. The enterprise is positive about futures trading [37][38]. 3.4.5. Aluminum Alloy Plant E - The monthly scrap aluminum procurement is 4000 - 5000 tons. The current production capacity is 7 tons, and the monthly output is about 6000 tons. The enterprise is cautious about the increase in ADC12 social inventory [39][41]. 3.4.6. Scrap Aluminum Recycling Enterprise A - It has recycling centers in Shanghai and Fujian, with a large trading volume. It mainly recycles new scrap aluminum from aluminum processing enterprises and conducts business through long - term contracts [42]. 3.4.7. Scrap Aluminum Recycling and Aluminum Alloy Trading Enterprise B - It is a benchmark enterprise in scrap aluminum supply. The monthly ADC12 trading volume is about 1000 tons, and it may participate in delivery in November. It mainly conducts long - term contract business and hedges when purchasing scrap aluminum [44][45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: Suspended [6] - Option strategy: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The decline of LME and SHFE copper was due to the increase in LME inventory caused by Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st, but the supply - demand of copper has not changed fundamentally. With low TC prices and no significant weakening of terminal consumption, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 21, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 78,500 yuan/ton and closed at 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1.65% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 79,770 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 - 290 yuan/ton to the current contract. The average premium rose 45 yuan from the previous day. The market showed three characteristics, and short - term spot premiums are expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: US Treasury Secretary said to cut interest rates if inflation is low. Trump Media & Technology Group bought $2 billion in Bitcoin. The US and Germany are close to an agreement to provide air - defense systems to Ukraine [3] - **Mine End**: In June 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,349,690.57 tons, down 1.91% month - on - month and up 1.77% year - on - year. Imports from Chile and Peru changed differently [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,042.568 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year. Imports from the DRC and Russia changed differently [4] - **Consumption**: On July 18, the copper rod order volume was 0.97 tons, down 0.10 tons from the previous day. The refined copper rod order volume and weekly total transactions also decreased [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 25.00 tons to 122,075 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 10,062 tons to 28,177 tons, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventory decreased by 2.47 tons to 11.86 tons [5] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Option: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - The table shows the changes in copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, arbitrage spreads, import profits, and the SHFE - LME ratio over different time periods [24][25][26]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Demand Resilience Exceeds Expectations, Alloy Has Support Below" [1] - Author: Zhou Tao from Galaxy Futures' Commodity Research Institute [1] - Occupation Certificate Number: Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F03134259, Investment Consulting Certificate No. Z0021009 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The demand resilience of alloys exceeds expectations, providing support for alloy prices, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices due to increasing hedging pressure from more manufacturers resuming production [3][4] - Suggested trading strategies include going long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese, conducting cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low, and selling straddle options at high prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply has a slight rebound, and some manufacturers have expectations of further resuming production as prices rebound; although downstream steel enters the off - season, demand shows resilience with stable apparent demand of five major steel products and a significant increase in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week, supporting the demand for alloys; cost performance varies, with electricity prices decreasing in Gansu and Qinghai and slightly increasing in Ningxia [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also has a slight rebound and remains at a low level; this week, the apparent demand and output of rebar both declined, suppressing the demand for silicomanganese, but overall crude steel output remains high, so demand still has resilience; port manganese ore spot prices have been stable and slightly strong recently, and overseas mines' August quotes are generally stable with a slight increase [3] 3.1.2 Strategies - **Unilateral**: Demand resilience supports prices, but avoid chasing rising prices [4] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese; conduct cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low [4] - **Options**: Sell straddle options at high prices [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 123,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [7] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%; the national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) is 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 40.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the national silicomanganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 182,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week of July 18, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 216,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons [9] 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis - Includes price and basis data of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi over multiple years [12] 3.3.3 Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Shows the weekly output and operating rate data of domestic ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises over multiple years [16] 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation - Covers data such as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills over multiple years [22] 3.3.5 Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for silicomanganese, with losses in all regions. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,691 yuan/ton and a profit of - 91 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,711 yuan/ton and a profit of - 111 yuan/ton; etc. [23] 3.3.6 Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Displays the price data of South African - produced Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps' CIF shipping quotes, and other manganese ore prices over multiple years [31] 3.3.7 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for ferrosilicon, all showing losses. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,415 yuan/ton and a profit of - 165 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,268 yuan/ton and a profit of - 68 yuan/ton; etc. [32] 3.3.8 Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Includes price data of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices over multiple years [39][42] 3.3.9 Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Hebei Representative Steel Mills - Shows the monthly procurement price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 over multiple years [45] 3.3.10 Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - Displays the cumulative and monthly output data of domestic silicomanganese and ferrosilicon over multiple years [48][51] 3.3.11 Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Presents the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China over multiple years [56] 3.3.12 Magnesium Metal Demand - Includes the price data of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output data of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi over multiple years [57] 3.3.13 Alloy Factory vs Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - Shows the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy factories, the regional breakdown of alloy factory ferrosilicon inventory, the available days of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory, and the regional breakdown of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days over multiple years [59] 3.3.14 Alloy Factory, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - Covers the available days of steel mill silicomanganese inventory, the regional breakdown of steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy factories over multiple years [61]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **polysilicon industry**, focusing on the price trends and market dynamics of polysilicon futures and its raw materials [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Decline of Polysilicon Futures**: - Polysilicon futures prices have significantly dropped, with some contracts falling below 33,000 yuan per ton, reaching new lows [1]. - The decline is attributed to a lack of substantial changes in the fundamentals, with expectations of increased inventory if production cuts do not occur [1][2]. 2. **Weak Demand and Downstream Price Drops**: - Overall demand for polysilicon is weakening, and downstream prices are also decreasing, leading to a situation where futures prices have fallen more than spot prices [3]. - The anticipated decline in demand post-installation in May and June has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market [1][3]. 3. **Cost Structure and Price Recovery Potential**: - If the prices of industrial raw materials and electricity continue to decline, it could lead to further reductions in production costs, allowing for potential price recovery in polysilicon [2]. - The market is observing a shift from a backwardation structure to a contango structure, indicating a potential for price recovery [5][10]. 4. **Inventory Management and Production Cuts**: - There are expectations of supply-side contractions, with companies considering production cuts to stabilize prices [4][12]. - The overall inventory in the polysilicon industry is expected to decrease slightly, despite weak demand [3][10]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook**: - The market sentiment remains cautious, with many companies struggling to maintain cash flow amidst falling prices [13]. - There are discussions among leading companies about forming a special fund to consolidate production capacities, which could influence future supply dynamics [14][15]. 6. **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Currently, there are limited arbitrage opportunities, but the narrowing gap between spot and futures prices suggests potential for future trading strategies [8][9]. 7. **Profit Margins and Cost Pressures**: - The profit margins for polysilicon producers are under pressure due to declining raw material costs and market prices, leading to concerns about sustainability [16]. - Companies are faced with the dilemma of whether to cut production to maintain prices or to continue production at lower prices [12]. Other Important Insights - The average price of N-type auxiliary materials has decreased by 1.53% compared to the previous period, indicating broader market trends affecting production costs [7]. - The overall production levels in the polysilicon industry remain low, not reaching the highs seen in previous years, which reflects ongoing challenges in the market [10][11]. - The potential for a market-driven clearing process raises concerns about prices falling below cash production costs for many companies, with only a few major players remaining profitable [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the polysilicon industry.

Report Investment Rating - Hold the reverse spreads of 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 in the container shipping index (European Line) lightly [1] Core View - Yesterday, multiple contracts of the container shipping index rose. The 2510 and 2512 contracts increased in positions and prices, with the 10 - 12 spread widening. The 2508 contract rose to repair the subsidy space. For the 2508 contract, the current situation is neutral, and for the 2510 contract, the market is bearish in the long - term but has short - term capital game factors. The strategy is to hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [1][11][14] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - EC2508 contract closed at 2,126.0 points, up 4.77% with a trading volume of 30,362 and a position of 21,555, a decrease of 6,336 in position [1] - EC2510 contract closed at 1,655.6 points, up 15.38% with a trading volume of 107,782 and a position of 46,629, an increase of 13,685 in position [1] - EC2512 contract closed at 1,836.0 points, up 16.06% with a trading volume of 13,026 and a position of 7,434, an increase of 1,056 in position [1] - The 10 - 12 spread widened from - 130 points to - 180 points [11] 2. Freight Index - The SCFIS European route index was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% week - on - week [1] - The SCFI European route index was $2,099/TEU, down 0.1% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,194/FEU, up 5.0% bi - weekly [1] 3. Spot Freight - Maersk's 31 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was reported at $3,070/FEU (up $70/FEU week - on - week), and the latest quote was updated to $3,110/FEU. Other shipping companies' quotes in late July remained unchanged, and the FAK average in late July was maintained at $3,350/FEU [11] 4. Market Fundamentals - In August, the weekly average capacity was revised up to 321,000 TEU/week. Maersk added 2 additional ships in August, increasing the probability of a lower opening price in the 32nd week [12] - For the 2508 contract, in the neutral scenario, the spot FAK from wk31 to wk34 may be revised down by about $200/FEU, and the 2508 neutral valuation is in the range of 2,050 - 2,100 points [13] - For the 2510 contract, October is the traditional off - season for the European route. The market's fundamental trading logic is to go short on rallies, but short - term capital games are the core driver [14] 5. Macro News - The US and its allies set the end of August as the deadline for reaching an Iran nuclear deal. If not reached, three European powers plan to activate the "snapback" mechanism [10]

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新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 关税本身对铜供需暂时不会有根本性改变 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-09，沪铜主力合约开于 79590元/吨，收于 78400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.53%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,340元/吨，收于 78,330 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.74%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日铜市呈现震荡下行态势，现货升水收窄至20-120元/吨，均价70元/吨，较前日下跌15元。受美国 拟加征50%铜关税消息影响，沪铜夜盘冲高至80300元后回落，日间持续走低至78750元，最终收报78940元/吨，隔 月价差扩大至360元。现货市场交投有所回暖但整体仍显谨慎，常州地区平水成交，上海市场压价明显，俄罗斯等 非注册品牌贴水达160元/吨。预计在月差走扩和看跌情绪影响下，今日升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，今日凌晨，美联储6月会议纪要显示官员对降息看法分化，因官员们在关税对通胀的影响方面观 点不一，大致分为三派：年内降息但排除7月（主流阵营）、全年按兵不动、主张下次会议立即行动。关税政策方 面，欧盟表示目标是在8月1日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern and turn bearish in the medium term due to OPEC's expected production increase and potential supply surplus after the peak season [2]. - The asphalt market shows a weak trend in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and expected cost loosening, with short - term prices fluctuating narrowly and cracking spreads remaining high [3][4]. - The liquefied gas market is expected to have a weak price trend due to reduced supply, weak combustion and chemical demand, and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see price increases due to increased LNG exports and strong demand, while the European market is expected to be weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - The fuel oil market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - The PX market is expected to follow the cost side in the short term due to tight supply and increasing demand [14]. - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and expected inventory accumulation [16]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increasing supply, expected inventory accumulation, and decreased downstream demand [18][19]. - The short - fiber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with strong support for processing fees due to production cuts and weak downstream demand [20]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to production cuts and strong processing fee support [24]. - The styrene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to increased supply, decreased demand, and increased inventory [26]. - The PVC market is expected to be under pressure in the second half of the year due to expected new production capacity, weak domestic demand, and limited export growth, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [29]. - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but face pressure from new production capacity in July - August, with attention to production and inventory changes [30]. - The plastic and PP markets are expected to be bearish in the short and medium term due to production capacity pressure, weak terminal demand, and a strategy of shorting on rallies [32]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention to production and sales, and in the medium term, to cost reduction and factory cold - repair [35]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic may return to the industrial logic, with a bearish fundamental situation [38]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to increased supply, stable demand, and eased geopolitical conflicts [41]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate due to high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export policies [42]. - The log market suggests waiting and seeing for the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [44][45]. - The double - offset paper market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets suggest holding short positions for the RU and NR main 09 contracts and holding the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 [50][51]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests short - selling the BR main 08 contract, waiting and seeing for the spread between BR2509 and NR2509, and selling the BR2509 call option [53][54]. - The pulp market suggests short - selling a small amount of the SP main 09 contract and holding the spread between 2*SP2509 and NR2509 [57]. Summaries by Directory Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $67.93, up $0.93 or 1.39% ; Brent2509 contract settled at $69.58, up $1.28 or 1.87% ; SC main contract 2508 fell to 501.3 yuan/barrel and then rose to 512 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1st and plans to raise tariffs significantly. OPEC+ may approve a production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's production increase expectation is strengthened, and the market may face a supply surplus after the peak season. However, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading idea in the short term and be bearish in the medium term for single - side trading; keep an eye on the stabilization of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads for arbitrage; and wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3594 points (+0.90%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3396 points (+0.80%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta increased, and that in South China remained stable [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and cost is expected to loosen. The short - term price will fluctuate narrowly, and the cracking spread will remain high [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: the asphalt - oil spread rebounds as oil prices weaken in the short term; options: wait and see [4][6]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4193 (+0.34%) at night, and PG2509 closed at 4088 (+0.25%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [6]. - **Related News**: The market in South China is stable with weak demand; the market in Shandong has different trends for civil gas and ether - post carbon four; the market in East China is generally stable with some weakness [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreases, demand in both combustion and chemical fields weakens, and inventories are reduced. The price is expected to be weak [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.621 (+0.45%), HH closed at 3.401 (+0.09%), and JKM closed at 12.44 (+1.47%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreases, demand is strong, and LNG exports increase, so prices are expected to rise. European natural gas prices are weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: go long on HH at low prices and expect TTF to fluctuate [9][10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2971 (+1.05%) at night, and LU09 closed at 3670 (+1.89%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads remain stable [10]. - **Related News**: Indonesia bids to sell fuel oil, and India's fuel consumption decreases in June [10][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand support from seasonal power generation and procurement in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see; arbitrage: pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot and consider going long on the FU91 positive spread at low prices [12][13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6684 (+0.18%) during the day and 6706 (+0.33%) at night. Spot prices rebounded slightly [14]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (+0.00%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and a PTA device resumes normal operation [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4279 (+0.05%) during the day and 4279 (+0.00%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and port inventory increases [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected in August - September. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6518 (+0.06%) during the day and 6526 (+0.12%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [20]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some factories cut production, processing margins expand, and downstream demand is weak. Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: short PTA and long PF; options: wait and see [20][22]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5872 (+0.03%) during the day and 5874 (+0.03%) at night. Spot market trading is light [23]. - **Related News**: Some bottle - chip factories plan to cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Processing fees are strong due to production cuts. The price is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [24]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7337 (-0.04%) during the day and 7382 (+0.61%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [24][25]. - **Related News**: Port inventories of styrene and pure benzene increase [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventories rise. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [26][27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decrease slightly, and caustic soda spot prices increase in some areas [27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreases, and the purchase price of caustic soda by some alumina factories increases [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC faces over - supply in the second half of the year and is under price pressure; caustic soda may fluctuate strongly in the short term but faces pressure from new production capacity in July - August [29][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: caustic soda fluctuates strongly in the short term; PVC is bearish and suggests short - selling on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [30][31]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices in some regions decrease, and PP prices in different regions also show declines [32]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreases, and the PP maintenance ratio increases [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is production capacity pressure in the third quarter, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: bearish in the short and medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton (-0.68%) and remained unchanged at night. Spot prices vary by region [34]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, LOW - E glass sample enterprise开工率 decreases, and the glass market has different trends in different regions [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is difficult to rise continuously due to cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and pay attention to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [35][36]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton (-0.5%) and rose to 1172 yuan at night. Spot prices vary by region [37]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, production and开工率 increase, and downstream demand is general [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. It is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly this week; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [38][39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2386 (-0.29%). Spot prices vary by region [40]. - **Related News**: International methanol production increases [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is stable, and geopolitical conflicts ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1748 (-0.34%). Spot prices rise slightly [42]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production increases, and production enterprise inventory decreases but remains high [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and export policies are uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options on rebounds [42][43]. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and the number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs decreases [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need further consideration. The difference between standard and market scales supports the current price [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see for near - month contracts; arbitrage: pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options: wait and see [44][45]. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The double - offset paper market is stable, with paper mills stabilizing prices and social demand in the off - season [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both weak, but the supply - demand relationship is partially alleviated by autumn publication orders. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13950 (-0.14%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (-0.33%) [48][49]. - **Related News**: Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The El Niño index has a negative impact on RU, and inventory has different trends in different areas [50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: hold short positions for RU and NR main 09 contracts; arbitrage: hold the spread

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene futures will be listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on July 8, 2025, with night trading available. The initial listing contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the most actively traded and become the main contract [1]. - The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton for the BZ2603 contract is relatively reasonable. The unilateral strategy on the first day should focus on range - bound operations, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [2][31]. - For the inter - period strategy, after listing, it is likely to be in a Contango structure. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of physical inter - month reverse arbitrage, such as shorting the near - term pure benzene and buying the BZ2603 contract [2]. - In the cross - variety strategy, attention should be paid to buying PX and shorting BZ. The PX - BZ spread presents a mid - to long - term favorable trend, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Analysis of Key Elements of Futures Contracts - **Contract Details**: The trading unit of pure benzene futures is 30 tons/hand, with a minimum price change of 1 yuan/ton. The initial trading margin is 8%, and the daily price limit is 7% (14% on the first listing day). The contract months are from March to June 2026, and the BZ2603 contract is expected to be the main contract [1][8]. - **Delivery Standards**: The delivery standard for pure benzene futures is the national standard 545, which is in line with spot market practices. The main delivery areas include Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, with different price adjustments for other regions [2]. - **Delivery Area Price Adjustments**: Fujian and Guangdong have 0 yuan/ton price adjustments; Shandong has - 50 yuan/ton; Tianjin, Hebei, and Anhui have - 120 yuan/ton; and Liaoning has - 200 yuan/ton. On July 7, 2025, 8 designated delivery factories with a total storage capacity of 225,000 tons and 5 designated delivery warehouses were announced [2][14]. - **Other Design Features**: The contract design follows the mature model of listed varieties, with delivery systems including one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against futures. It combines factory and warehouse delivery systems, with factory delivery as the main method. The risk control system includes price limits, position limits, etc. [16][17]. 2. Pure Benzene Futures Valuation - Locating the Cheapest Deliverable Goods - **Cheapest Deliverable Goods in the Spot Market**: Due to the narrowing quality gap between hydrogenated benzene and petroleum benzene, and considering the price adjustments in different regions, all delivery factory goods can be regarded as the "cheapest deliverable goods" [18]. - **Theoretical Calculation of the Spot Price of the Lowest Deliverable Goods**: Based on factors such as the Brent 2603 contract price, naphtha price, exchange rate, and market expectations, the reasonable price of the BZ2603 contract is around 5800 yuan/ton. If the crude oil price rebounds to 70 - 75 dollars, the upper limit of the pure benzene price is about 6500 yuan/ton; if it drops to 60 dollars, the lower limit is about 5500 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Supply - Demand Pattern of Pure Benzene - In the first half of 2025, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was in surplus, but it is expected to gradually improve in the second half. The growth rate of apparent demand in 2023 and 2024 was 17.2% and 12% respectively, and it is expected to be around 8% in 2025. The core reason is that the new installations of downstream industries are decreasing, while the production pressure from upstream ethylene cracking and toluene disproportionation installations remains [28]. - After the listing of pure benzene futures, the willingness to hold near - term positions may weaken, and the long - term price curve is likely to maintain a Contango structure [28]. 4. Investment Outlook for Pure Benzene Futures - **Unilateral Strategy on the First Listing Day**: The listed price of 5900 yuan/ton is relatively reasonable. It is recommended to operate in a range - bound manner, with an expected trading range of 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inter - period Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities. The current spot port inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level of 170,000 tons. The total arbitrage cost is about 80.2 yuan/ton [32]. - **Cross - variety Strategy on the First Listing Day**: Focus on the PX - BZ spread arbitrage. The PX mid - term pattern is significantly better than that of pure benzene, while the downward squeezing space of the EB - BZ spread is relatively limited [3][36].