" 对等关税 " 虽已初步落地，但美国对关键领域的贸易施压仍在持续加码。 当地时间8月6日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将对芯片和半导体征收约100%的关税，但不针对"在 美国建厂"的公司。 尽管今年以来市场不断质疑"美国例外论"，美股仍多次刷新历史高点。今年至8月8日截稿，纳指已 上涨10%，标普500指数涨幅7.79%。 近期，围绕"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，特朗普总是退缩）政策反复的投机氛围逐渐降 温，市场开始回归基本面判断，但接踵而至的美国经济基本面疲软信号，正促使投资者重新审视并评估 美国资产的风险与回报前景。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，7月非农就业仅增加7.3万人，远低于市场预期的10万人。更值得关注的 是，5月和6月的新增就业人数被合计大幅下修25.8万个岗位，失业率也升至4.2%。在疲弱就业数据公布 后，特朗普迅速解雇劳工统计局局长，此举引发市场对数据公信力的质疑，进一步推高对"滞胀"风险的 担忧。 此前一天，特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示，美国计划对进口药品 加征关税，税率最高或达250%。继汽车、钢铝等传统产业之后，贸易摩擦已进一 ...

一位专家表示："市场的心态是拥抱风险。" 然而，股市却几乎不受影响。 以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数自上周二收盘以来上涨了 0.4%，而就在前一天，GDP 报告的发布标志着一系列重大事件的首发。同期，标准普尔 500 指数下 跌了 0.6%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了 1.4%。 在唐纳德·特朗普总统解雇美国劳工统计局局长几个小时前，疲软的就业数据就已公布。一份国内生产总值报告显示， 今年上半年经济增长放缓。新一轮关 税措施席卷了近 70 个国家。 这些事件——都是自上周以来发生的——促使一些分析师对经济衰退发出警告 ，而另一些人则对以金本位为基础的美国经济数据的政治独立性表示担忧 。 尽管业绩好坏参半，但这些指数仍远高于三个月前的水平。纳斯达克指数自5月份以来飙升了20%，标准普尔500指数上涨了13%。道琼斯指数同期上涨了 7%。 接受美国广播公司新闻采访的分析师将投资者的乐观情绪归因于强劲的企业利润、美联储降息的前景以及特朗普不会恢复 4 月份最初推出的高额关税的持续 预期。 麦肯塔弗在被解职后发表社交媒体帖子称："能够与众多敬业的公务员一起担任劳工统计局局长，负责衡量庞大而充满活力的经济，是我毕生的荣幸。这 ...

花旗转向：滞胀阴云下的定价权争夺 花旗银行从"黄金空头"到"多头旗手"的180度转身，撕开了全球经济困境的遮羞布。7月美国非农就业数据爆冷，失业率突破4%的"萨姆规则"阈值，市场对 美联储9月降息50个基点的预期骤升至75%。更危险的是，特朗普政府挥舞的关税大棒正在制造"高通胀+低增长"的完美风暴——这种上世纪70年代的滞胀 幽灵，让黄金的抗通胀与避险属性产生乘数效应。花旗将三个月目标价上调至3500美元/盎司，实质上是在为黄金争夺大宗商品定价权的呐喊。 当中国人民银行第七次在月度数据中按下黄金储备的"+"键时，全球资本市场的目光再次聚焦东方。这场持续九个月的黄金增持潮，恰与全球央行"扫 货"形成共振——世界黄金协会数据显示，2024年上半年全球央行购金量较十年均值高出40%，中国央行以7396万盎司的储备规模，在动荡的货币体系中 悄然筑起一道"黄金长城"。 黄金储备：大国博弈的压舱石 中国央行的购金节奏暗含深意。在美元指数高位徘徊、地缘政治风险持续发酵的背景下，黄金储备的稳步增长不仅是经济防御的盾牌，更是人民币国际化 的战略支点。当全球去美元化暗流涌动，黄金作为"无国籍货币"的信用背书价值愈发凸显。数据显示 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline of 0.89%, attributed to internal structural issues despite positive market sentiment [1] - Concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy were highlighted, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 221,000 [1] - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, below the expected 100,000, while the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June, higher than the anticipated 2.5% [1] Company Performance - Crocs projected a revenue decline of 9% to 11% for Q3, leading to a nearly 30% drop in its stock price, marking its lowest point in three years [1] - Semiconductor companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with SMIC's Q3 revenue guidance indicating a 5-7% increase and Hua Hong's a 11.3% increase [2] - AI application company Mingyuan Cloud turned a profit of 12.09 million to 15.41 million RMB, recovering from a loss of 115.37 million RMB last year, driven by product optimization and AI technology [3] Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector showed mixed results, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Junshi Biosciences seeing stock increases of over 6%, while Hutchison China MediTech's stock fell nearly 16% despite a significant profit increase due to asset sales [3] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong faced caution, with Wharf Holdings expressing a pessimistic outlook on retail rental prospects, resulting in an 8% stock drop [4] - Gold stocks remained strong, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold benefiting from a weaker dollar [4] Infrastructure Developments - The establishment of the Xinjiang section of the New Tibet Railway, with a total investment of up to 350 billion RMB, is expected to boost related sectors, leading to stock increases in construction companies [4] - The MSCI announced the addition of 14 new stocks to its China index, including companies like 3SBio and Meituan, indicating potential investment opportunities [6] Emerging Technologies - The low Earth orbit satellite launch pace is accelerating, with multiple successful launches planned for the second half of the year, enhancing China's capabilities in satellite communications [7] - Companies like Interstellar Aerospace Technology are developing AI application satellites and aim to capture a significant market share in optical remote sensing satellites by 2028 [8] Individual Company Strategies - Smoore International is focusing on business transformation, with expectations of improved performance in HNB products following successful launches in Japan [9] - The company is diversifying into aerosol technology for beauty and medical applications, positioning 2025 as a critical year for growth [10]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.30%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.35% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.09%, France's CAC40 up by 0.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rising by 0.16% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.58% to $64.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.65% to $66.86 per barrel [4] Earnings Reports - The earnings season has seen a significant drop in investor patience, with companies failing to meet Wall Street expectations facing an average stock price drop of 7.4%, compared to the usual 3.2% over the past five years [5] - MP Materials reported Q2 revenue of $57.4 million, an 84% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations, with a significant production increase of 120% for neodymium and praseodymium [10] - Pinterest's Q2 revenue grew by 17% to $998 million, surpassing expectations, but the adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 fell short of the anticipated $0.36, leading to a pre-market drop of over 12% [10] Corporate Developments - Tesla is disbanding its Dojo supercomputer team and shifting from an in-house chip development strategy to external partnerships, marking a significant change in its approach to autonomous driving technology [8][9] - Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger received full support from the board amid calls for his resignation due to alleged conflicts of interest, as he aims to clarify misinformation regarding his background [9] - Toyota and Honda are facing potential impacts of over $12.5 billion from new automotive tariffs, with uncertainty surrounding policy details complicating pricing decisions [11] Industry Trends - The demand for AI chips remains strong, with TSMC reporting a 26% year-over-year revenue increase in July, reflecting accelerated investment in the AI sector [11]

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.30%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.35% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.09%, France's CAC 40 up by 0.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rising by 0.16% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.58% to $64.25 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.65% to $66.86 per barrel [3][4] Earnings Reports - The earnings season has seen a significant reaction from investors, with companies failing to meet Wall Street expectations facing an average stock price drop of 7.4%, compared to the usual 3.2% over the past five years [4] - Companies that meet both earnings and sales expectations are the only ones seeing stock price increases on the first trading day post-earnings [4] Federal Reserve Predictions - JPMorgan forecasts that the Federal Reserve may begin a series of rate cuts starting in September, with a potential total of four cuts, each by 25 basis points [5] - Concerns about inflation and economic stagnation are rising, with warnings that new tariffs could complicate the Fed's ability to lower rates [5] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic maintains a cautious stance, suggesting only one rate cut this year while emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of tariffs on inflation [5] Company-Specific News - Tesla is disbanding its Dojo supercomputer team and shifting from in-house chip development to external partnerships, marking a significant strategic change [7][8] - Intel CEO Chen Liwu received full support from the board amid calls for his resignation due to alleged conflicts of interest, following comments from President Trump [8] - MP Materials reported Q2 revenue growth of 84% to $57.4 million, exceeding expectations, with a significant increase in rare earth production [9] - Pinterest's Q2 revenue grew by 17% to $998 million, but the company faced a decline in user growth in North America, leading to a pre-market drop of over 12% [9] - Toyota and Honda are facing uncertainty regarding a potential $12.5 billion impact from tariffs, complicating pricing decisions [10] - TSMC reported a 26% year-over-year revenue increase in July, driven by strong demand for AI chips, aligning with analyst expectations for continued growth [10]

原油周报 美国就业数据爆冷叠加OPEC+增产打压油价 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号： Z0016296 2025年8月8日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点： 上周月报观点：8月我们将关注柴油裂解走向，在汽油消费不佳的情况下，柴油裂解引领了炼油厂的炼 油经济性。一旦柴油裂解持续走弱，将直接损害到炼厂开工率，使得原油消费端开始逐渐难以抵抗日 益增加的供应压力，使得8月油价承压。 本周走势分析：本周油价持续回落，随着美俄元首即将会晤以及潜在的美俄乌会谈，俄油扰动忧虑有 所缓解，OPEC+增产压力在原油逐渐脱离传统消费旺季之际遭到放大。 • 基本面：月差走弱，柴油裂解见顶引领油价下跌，美国旺季汽油消费疲软（2.1-2.6） • OPEC+供应：增产有条不紊，未来仍有进一步增产空间（2.7） • 市场扰动项：边谈边制裁是更可能选项，关注谈判进展（2.9） • 美国宏观：就业数据大暴冷推动降息预期，对市场形成利空（2.10- ...

君諾外匯发现华尔街策略师近期接连发出警报，称随着贸易关税的影响逐步显现，美国经济正朝着滞胀 的方向演进，而这一趋势可能会限制美联储大幅降息的能力。这一判断打破了市场对美国经济 "软着 陆" 的乐观预期，为复杂的经济前景再添一层不确定性。 但策略师们警告，这种乐观预期可能被即将生效的关税政策颠覆。美国总统特朗普大范围的新关税已于 周四正式实施，其影响可能远超市场当前的预估 —— 更高的进口成本将通过供应链层层转嫁，最终由 消费者和企业承担，直接推高各类商品和服务的价格。例如，电子产品、汽车零部件等依赖进口的商 品，其终端售价可能出现明显上涨；而企业为应对关税成本，可能被迫削减投资或裁员，进一步抑制经 济增长动能。 从历史经验看，关税对通胀的推升往往具有滞后性和持续性。上一轮美国加征关税期间，多项研究显 示，约 90% 的关税成本最终由美国国内消费者承担，核心 PCE 通胀率因此被推高约 0.3 个百分点。而 此次关税覆盖范围更广、税率更高，对通胀的冲击可能更为显著。若 CPI 数据因关税出现反弹，市场 对通胀 "已受控" 的认知将被打破，进而动摇对美联储降息的预期。 更关键的是，滞胀风险将直接制约美联储的政策空 ...

随着新一轮关税政策效应逐步显现，华尔街策略师纷纷发出警告：美国经济正滑向滞胀泥潭，这可能严 重制约美联储降息操作空间。 尽管投资者目前尚未重视这些预警信号，但多项经济数据显示，美国即将面临通胀高企与经济疲软并存 的困境。分析师指出，当前市场除美元外尚未显现明显恐慌迹象——标普500指数年内屡创新高，美债 指数有望创2020年以来最佳表现，而美元指数已较一篮子货币下跌8%。 认为通胀得到控制的交易员大举押注美联储今年将降息两次，首次降息预期已提前至下月。这种预期在 周五疲软的就业报告公布后进一步强化。但策略师们警告，特朗普政府周四生效的全面关税政策可能颠 覆市场预期，随着涨价压力向消费端传导，通胀风险正急剧上升。 "市场对降息预期强烈，但通胀上行风险不容忽视，"阿波罗全球管理首席经济学家Torsten Slok周四在研 报中强调，"关键在于，市场中的滞胀叙事正在持续强化。"就业数据公布后美债虽创下2023年底以来最 大涨幅，但本周十年期国债收益率稳定在4.22%，显示市场重归平静。 Slok的观点获得包括纽约梅隆银行、美国银行、TD Securities和Brown Brothers在内的多家机构策略师呼 应。 ...

Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.396 million ounces as of the end of July, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces and continuing a trend of nine consecutive months of accumulation, aligning with a global central bank gold buying spree [3][5] - The World Gold Council reported that global central bank gold purchases in the first half of 2024 exceeded the ten-year average by 40%, highlighting the importance of central bank demand for gold [3] ETF Inflows - As of August 6, the lowest fee gold ETF (518660) saw a net inflow of 98 million yuan over five days, with a total market size of 3.59 billion yuan and a year-to-date share growth rate of 182%, making it a preferred choice for investors [7] - The World Gold Council forecasts that global gold demand will reach 1,249 tons by the second quarter of 2025, with ETF investments contributing 170 tons, and the first half of 2024 recorded the highest ETF demand since 2020 at 397 tons [7] Changing Price Expectations - Citibank, known for its bearish stance on gold, has revised its price forecast upward, increasing the three-month target price from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,300 to $3,600 per ounce [9] - The shift in Citibank's outlook is attributed to increasing risks of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%, leading to heightened expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Market Sentiment and Risks - Standard Chartered maintains an optimistic view, predicting gold prices could reach $3,400 per ounce in the next three months and remain at $3,500 per ounce over the next 12 months [11] - However, there are concerns about short-term upward momentum for gold prices, with risks of overheating in the market, as noted by招商证券, which suggests focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad bets on rising gold prices [12][13] - Key risk factors identified include potential policy reversals by the Federal Reserve, technical overbought conditions, competition from alternative assets like Bitcoin, and the possibility of reduced geopolitical premiums due to easing trade tensions [13]