来源：环球老虎财经app 近期美股的涨跌几乎是被美联储牵着走。 进入11月后，美联储官员密集放鹰，加之9月非农与通胀数据均强于预期，市场对美联储12月降息的押注明显降温，美股持续回调。尤其是20 日晚间纳斯达克大跌了2.15%。 直到21日晚，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示短期内存在降息空间，市场情绪随即反转，投资者将12月降息概率从约35%抬升至约70%，美股随之 反弹，纳斯达克收涨0.88%。 24日开盘前，美联储理事沃勒再次呼吁支持12月先行降息、然后再逐会判断，推动美股高开。开盘不久，又传出中美高层通话的消息，市场乐 观情绪进一步放大。其后公布的11月达拉斯联储制造业指数低于全部经济学家预期，令市场对12月降息的押注进一步升温，美股涨幅继续扩 大。 25日凌晨，特朗普发帖称与中方通话"非常好"，并表示计划于明年4月份访华，市场风险偏好随之提升；不久后，"新美联储通讯社"发布文章 称旧金山联储主席戴利支持降息。最终纳斯达克上涨了2.69%。 截至25日收盘，纳斯达克收复了20日的暴跌，但美股的分歧并没有消除。 24日，大空头迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）突然在X上复出，上来就是一连串对AI泡沫的猛 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices remained stable above $4200, reaching a high of $4241.40 due to weak U.S. employment data, but closed near $4203, showing little change [1] - In the European market, gold prices slightly declined, hovering around $4188 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. job market unexpectedly contracted, with private sector jobs decreasing by 32,000 in November, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 40,000 [3] - Wage growth also slowed, with job switchers seeing a 6.3% increase, the lowest since February 2021, and wage growth for those staying in their positions at 4.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from October [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability of 89%, up from 88% the previous day [7] - The November non-farm payroll report has been rescheduled for release on December 16, which will be the last employment data available before the Fed's meeting on December 9-10 [5][6]

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 视觉中国 近期美股的涨跌几乎是被美联储牵着走。 进入11月后，美联储官员密集放鹰，加之9月非农与通胀数据均强于预期，市场对美联储12月降息的押注明显 降温，美股持续回调。尤其是20日晚间纳斯达克大跌了2.15%。 直到21日晚，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示短期内存在降息空间，市场情绪随即反转，投资者将12月降息概率从 约35%抬升至约70%，美股随之反弹，纳斯达克收涨0.88%。 24日开盘前，美联储理事沃勒再次呼吁支持12月先行降息、然后再逐会判断，推动美股高开。开盘不久，又传 出中美高层通话的消息，市场乐观情绪进一步放大。其后公布的11月达拉斯联储制造业指数低于全部经济学家 预期，令市场对12月降息的押注进一步升温，美股涨幅继续扩大。 25日凌晨，特朗普发帖称与中方通话"非常好"，并表示计划于明年4月份访华，市场风险偏好随之提升；不久 后，"新美联储通讯社"发布文章称旧金山联储主席戴利支持降息。最终纳斯达克上涨了2.69%。 截至25日收盘，纳斯达克收复了20日的暴跌，但美股的分歧并没有消除。 24日，大空头迈克尔·伯里 （Michael Bu ...

来源：智昇财论 #黄金原油收跌# 黄金方面：货币宽松开启以来，美联储已经降息五次，累计降息150个基点。在通胀和就业之间，美联 储官员们对12月降息的分歧仍然存在，这种分歧不仅影响下周能否再次降息，也关系到未来的政策走 向。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也承认了，官员们的争论核心，是经济需要更多刺激来支撑就业市场，而通 胀仍然高于目标以及关税可能进一步推高物价，导致经济可能出现滞胀。在此背景下，近期的黄金趋势 性较弱，价格出现宽幅震荡的态势。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，短期回调改变了市场上行结构，价格可能出现宽幅震荡。 技术面：昨日收阴线，市场在次级低点4250美元附近徘徊，价格在布林线上轨附近受到压制。1小时级 别，价格在60/120日均线之间运行，市场处于转势阶段。今日下方关注4170美元的支撑，上方关注4230 美元的压力。 原油方面：12月2日，俄罗斯总统普京与美国特使举行了近5小时的会议，俄方表示会议富有成效。市场 对俄乌和谈的预期又有上升，供应中断担忧有所减弱，油价受此影响出现下跌。 技术面：日线收下影线较长的小阴线。日线级别，年度低位存在支撑，市场仍在下降通道内部运行。1 小时级别，近期市场走势， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing concentration of AI-related investments, particularly in the "Big Seven" tech companies, which now account for 47% of the S&P 500 index, indicating a historical high in investment concentration in AI themes [1] - The demand for computing power in the AI sector is expected to significantly increase electricity consumption, with global data center electricity demand projected to exceed 945 TWh by 2030, and China's compound annual growth rate reaching 18% [1] - The surge in electricity demand is driving the need for grid upgrades, which in turn stimulates demand for industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, suggesting that the valuations of related sectors in the A-share market remain relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for recovery [1] Group 2 - The investment logic for resource products is characterized by a "triple alpha" appeal: firstly, benefiting from the AI technology cycle through increased demand for electricity, cooling, and hardware; secondly, providing a hedge against currency depreciation in a stagflation environment; and thirdly, the impact of monetary expansion and energy transition driving up the value of resource products [1] - The focus on resource sectors has shown long-term value potential, as exemplified by the Above Silver Resource Selected Mixed Fund, which has achieved a cumulative return of 58.67% since its inception, outperforming its benchmark [2] - The fund is optimistic about the long-term value of resource products, highlighting opportunities in various sectors such as industrial metals driven by U.S. manufacturing reshoring and China's production reforms, as well as increased demand for gold amid rising recession risks and global conflicts [2]

美国11月制造业PMI继续走弱 12月1日，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数为48.2，不及预期的49，前值为48.7。50为荣枯分界线。 该指数已连续九个月低于50的荣枯线。11月新订单指数47.4，客户需求整体依然乏力。11月订单以自7月以来的最快速度收缩，未完成订单积压 量也创七个月以来的最大降幅。 11个制造业行业在11月出现萎缩，其中服装、木材和纸制品以及纺织业跌幅居前。包括计算机和电子产品在内的仅四个行业报告增长，为一年以 来最少。周一稍早，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国11月标普全球制造业PMI终值为52.2，预期51.9，初值51.9。（华尔街见闻） 点击按钮▲立即预约 ｜点评｜ 美国制造业景气度持续下滑，这种情况暂时尚未出现改善的信号。从数据来看，为了处理前期积压订单，制造商生产活动加快。然 而，作为先行指标的新订单指数却大幅下滑，客户需求已连续三个月放缓。同时，美国制造业成本正在快速提升。整体上看，美国制造业正面 临着滞胀压力。 需求的不确定性以及成本端的上行，导致美国制造业招聘意愿持续放缓。美联储官员已进入12月议息会议前的静默期，此前多位官员曾发 ...

2026年美国经济最大的风险是"再通胀"，这源自于经济持续走弱后联储超预期的持续降息，和特朗 普"全力拼中选"所推行的更宽松的财政政策；进而引发对AI叙事的进一步怀疑，以及更大的预期波 动。 通胀是明年中选的硬约束，特朗普会在明年11月中选前尽量避免明显的再通胀，但融资条件（金融环 境）又是AI叙事的硬约束。特朗普需要平衡好选票（中期选举）与股票（AI叙事）之间的关系：既要维 持美国K型经济的下层基础，又要避免造成AI泡沫破裂，导致经济滑向深层次的衰退。 2026年的美国经济将在失衡中围绕股票与选票的平衡展开。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 前言： 当下的美国经济正处在全面放缓的过程中：就业——消费链条放缓、失业率的上行趋势正在持 续。即便2026年美国的财政和货币双宽，经济结构的分化仍将延续，AI相关领域的火热与实体经济的 疲软形成"冷热缺口"将继续扩大而非弥合。 过去15个月，美国经济经历了150bp降息后并未得到明显提振，而将"AI叙事进行到底"则需要更加宽 松的货币政策。同时，为了赢得中选，2026年美国将采取更加宽松的财政政策，在《大美丽法案》逐 步落地的基础上，赤字率水平将回到6%，乃至更高水平 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 白银库存继续下降，酝酿大级别行情 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。 随着就业数据转弱，美联储12月降息概率已大幅上升至80%。阿里CEO表示，服务器上架速度远远跟不上需求增速， 三年内，AI泡沫是不存在的。谷歌AI基础设施负责人在全体大会中表示，公司必须每6个月将AI算力翻倍，并在 未来4到5年内额外实现1000倍的增长，以应对持续上升的AI服务需求。英伟达CEO黄仁勋称：中国将赢得人工智 能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。摩根大通策略师团队认为，未来五年 AI数据中心的建设热潮至少需要5万亿美元。美国9月零售销售额仅增长0.2%，远低于预期，显示美国人正在削减 开支，负担能力危机对消费端的冲击开始显现。ADP周度数据显示，过去四周私人企业裁员 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price has slightly declined, currently around 52.90, with market focus on support levels for long positions [1] - Recent U.S. economic indicators show signs of weakness, with retail sales in September growing only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and a significant drop in consumer confidence index to 88.7 from 95.5 [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][3] Market Sentiment - The dovish shift from the Federal Reserve has led to an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction [3][4] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including calls for further rate cuts due to a weakening job market, have bolstered market confidence [3][4] - The bond market reflects strong expectations for a dovish Fed, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening yield curve [4] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a consolidation phase, with significant resistance at 54.3-54.4 and support around 45.5 [5][9] - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish trend, although market momentum appears to be weakening [5][9] - The current trading strategy suggests positioning for long trades near the support level of 52.00, with a stop loss at 51.60 and a target range of 53.50-53.90 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the bullish trend for gold is expected to continue into 2026, driven by factors such as the easing of the US dollar and declining confidence in the dollar system and assets [2][5][6]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - In 2025, gold prices increased by over 50%, outperforming other major asset classes, primarily due to the US dollar entering a loosening cycle and a decline in investor confidence in the dollar system [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, with two reductions of 25 basis points each, and plans to stop balance sheet reduction, leading to increased dollar liquidity which supports gold prices [5][6]. - The US fiscal deficit has risen significantly post-pandemic, with annual deficits now around 6-7%, leading to increased national debt and rising repayment risks, which negatively impacts confidence in the dollar [5][6]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - The optimistic outlook for gold in 2026 is based on the expectation that the core factors driving gold prices will remain unchanged, despite potential short-term tightening of monetary policy [6][7]. - The anticipated changes in Federal Reserve leadership and potential increases in the fiscal deficit may further pressure the credibility of the dollar, thereby supporting gold prices [6][7]. - Economic slowdown in the US and rising inflation could lead to a stagflation scenario, where gold, as a traditional inflation hedge, would benefit [6][7]. Group 3: Central Bank and Investor Behavior - Global central banks have been increasing their gold purchases, but many, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, still have relatively low gold allocations in their foreign exchange reserves [7]. - Given the uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, it is expected that central banks and global investors will further increase their gold allocations in 2026, providing additional support for gold prices [7]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The current high valuation of gold does not necessarily indicate the end of the bull market, but it may lead to increased price volatility [4][6][7]. - Historical analysis shows that gold's annualized returns are competitive with stocks and significantly higher than bonds, suggesting strong long-term investment value [8][9]. - Gold's low correlation with other assets makes it a valuable addition to investment portfolios, enhancing returns while reducing overall risk [9].