Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2][4] - Zinc: The price is expected to oscillate upwards [2][7] - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [2][10] - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation [2][13] - Alumina: Short - term oscillation [2][13] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][13] - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates in a narrow range [2][16] - Stainless steel: The current supply - demand situation drags down the price, while the raw material cost limits the downside space [2][17] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78,280 yuan, down 0.38%; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 9,674 US dollars, up 0.41%. The trading volume of the SHFE copper main contract was 56,389 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,883 lots, a decrease of 5,870 lots. The SHFE copper inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons; the LME copper inventory was 156,125 tons, an increase of 2,275 tons [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st. Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine [4][6] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan, unchanged; the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was at 2,750 US dollars, down 0.15%. The trading volume of the SHFE zinc main contract was 89,569 lots, an increase of 4,120 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 7,339 lots, a decrease of 826 lots. The SHFE zinc inventory was 14,375 tons, a decrease of 432 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons [7] - **News**: The US - Japan trade agreement has continued differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis [8] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [8] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,855 yuan, up 0.48%; the LME lead 3M electronic disk was at 1,975.5 US dollars, up 0.61%. The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract was 48,645 lots, an increase of 8,512 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,919 lots, a decrease of 97 lots. The SHFE lead inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [10] - **News**: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [11] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,650 yuan, up 90 yuan; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,622 US dollars, up 57 US dollars. The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,241 yuan, up 14 yuan. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan, up 70 yuan. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 54.70 million tons, unchanged [13] - **Comprehensive News**: Before the 39% tariff took effect, the Swiss leader's visit to the US was fruitless. Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0 [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,070 yuan, up 160 yuan; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,935 yuan, down 25 yuan. The trading volume of the SHFE nickel main contract was 87,840 lots, an increase of 3,022 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 82,019 lots, an increase of 2,193 lots [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended production of all EF production lines [17][18][19] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: Zinc, lead, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal are expected to oscillate upwards; industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester chip have potential for positive movement; palm oil is recommended for long - position building at low levels [2][9][12][37][50] - **Negative Trends**: Para - xylene, LLDPE, LPG, propylene are trending weakly; the container shipping index (European line) has a weak fundamental outlook [2][5] - **Oscillating Trends**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, iron ore, log, synthetic rubber, asphalt, methanol, urea, etc. are in an oscillating phase [2][6][15][17] - **Other Situations**: PTA has a rebound in monthly spread; MEG rebounds due to the recovery of coal prices; caustic soda's peak - season contracts are treated with a long - position bias [2] 2. Core Views - The market trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. For example, the tariffs imposed by Trump on copper products and other commodities have an impact on the copper market; the changes in Chile's lithium carbonate exports affect the lithium carbonate market [6][25] - Different commodities have different trading strategies based on their trends. For instance, for PX, a reverse spread for contracts 9 - 1 is recommended to be held; for PTA, a positive spread for contracts at low levels is advised; for MEG, a long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is proposed [54][55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, but Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation affect the market. The trend intensity is neutral [6][8] - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate upwards. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and there are news about US - Japan trade agreements [9][10] - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price, and macro - economic news about the US affects the market. The trend intensity is neutral [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation. Alumina is in short - term oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all neutral [15][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation due to intensified long - short competition. Stainless steel's supply - demand situation drags down the price, but raw material costs limit the downside. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are neutral [17][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Chile's exports have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses. The trend intensity is neutral [23][26] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **PTA**: The processing fee is at a low level, the load drops unexpectedly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **MEG**: The rebound is driven by the recovery of coal prices. A long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is recommended. The trend intensity is 0 [2][49] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in short - term oscillation. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has changed, and the market is affected by factors such as speculation funds and policies [56][57] - **Asphalt**: It is in consolidation after a decline [2][60] Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in contract 10 and add short positions at high levels if appropriate [5] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Polyester Chip**: The downside space is limited, and they are in short - term oscillation. A long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to announce an interest rate cut this Thursday, becoming one of the first major central banks to adopt a loose monetary policy in the current cycle [1] - Market expectations indicate a 96% probability that the Bank of England will lower the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4% during the August meeting, marking its first policy adjustment since May [1] - Economic data from the UK shows a contraction in May, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.7%, providing a basis for the anticipated interest rate cut [1] Group 2 - Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, the UK stock market has performed well, with the FTSE 100 index rising 12% this year and reaching new highs [2] - The rise in the UK stock market is driven by government plans to increase defense spending and a trade agreement between UK Prime Minister Starmer and US President Trump, which sets the baseline tariff on US goods to the UK at 10% [2] - The US stock market has also shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 7% this year, reflecting growing investor optimism regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts [2]

美国芯片制造商超威半导体（AMD）周二盘后发布的财报显示，公司2025财年二季度营收整体符合预期， 但每股收益低于预期，其股价在盘后时段一度大跌超5%。 转自：央视财经 当地时间周二，美国总统特朗普接受媒体采访时表示，将于近期公布一系列针对进口药品和芯片的高关税 税率，令投资者对风险资产交易保持警惕。 当天出炉的最新数据显示，美国7月份供应管理协会非制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）低于预期。数据当 中，在美国经济总量中占比约三分之二的服务业几乎陷入停滞，引发市场对美国经济陷入滞胀风险的担 忧，美国三大股指周二集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.14%，标普500指数跌0.49%，纳指跌0.65%。包括摩 根士丹利和德意志银行在内的大型投资机构纷纷预警，美股估值较高，美国就业市场释放降温信号，加之 三季度季节性因素，美股未来短期面临回调风险。 超威半导体最新财报显示每股收益不及预期 公司股价5日盘后大跌 5日国际油价下跌 "欧佩克+"当中8个主要产油国近日刚刚公布9月增产计划，美国特朗普政府关税政策扰乱全球贸易，可能进 一步打压本就疲软的全球石油需求，令投资者关注原油市场供应过剩的前景，国际油价周二下跌。截至收 盘，纽 ...

Group 1: Earnings Reports Impact - Several technology stocks experienced significant declines in after-hours trading, with Supermicro falling over 16%, Snap dropping over 14%, and AMD decreasing over 6% due to disappointing earnings reports [1][2] - Supermicro's Q4 FY2025 net sales were $5.76 billion, below analyst expectations of $6.01 billion, with a gross margin of 9.6%, lower than the anticipated 10% [2] - Snap reported Q2 sales of $1.345 billion, slightly below the expected $1.35 billion, and a net loss of $262.6 million, compared to a loss of $248.6 million in the same period last year [3] - AMD's Q2 revenue grew 32% year-over-year to $7.7 billion, exceeding expectations, but adjusted EPS was $0.48, below the forecast of $0.49 [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The overall U.S. stock market saw a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, S&P 500 down 0.49%, and Nasdaq down 0.65%, with over 4,700 stocks falling [5] - The ISM services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating near stagnation in service sector growth [7] - The employment sub-index fell to 46.4, the lowest since the pandemic, indicating increased layoff pressures, while the prices index rose to 69.9, suggesting rising inflationary pressures [8] - Recent tariff announcements by President Trump, including a potential 250% tariff on imported drugs and upcoming tariffs on semiconductors, have negatively impacted market sentiment [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the market is pricing in the risk of a cooling US economy and an escalation of tariff threats. The US ISM Services PMI in July dropped to 50.1, indicating rising stagflation risks, while the Markit Services PMI rose to 55.7. Trump announced potential tariff hikes, and the appointment of a new Fed Chair is anticipated. In the domestic market, the Chinese Services PMI in July reached a 14 - month high. A - shares showed a bullish trend, and the bond market was volatile. In August, with limited domestic policy and event expectations and increasing overseas uncertainties, the equity market may oscillate, and opportunities in the bond market should be monitored [2][3]. - For precious metals, supported by interest - rate cut expectations, gold and silver continued to rebound. The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in September, and Trump's tariff announcements may further boost risk - aversion sentiment [4][5]. - In the copper market, the US service industry is at risk of stagnation, but the expectation of a September rate cut has increased. With overseas concentrate shortages and mine restart issues, and inventory rebounds, copper prices are expected to find support and then stabilize [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the decline in the US Services PMI has increased speculation of a Fed rate cut, global economic uncertainties and trade policies have affected demand. With rising inventory, aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate. With an increase in warehouse receipts and a relaxation of market supply, and stable consumption, the market shows a mixed situation [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to be under pressure below the moving average. With a weakening economy, weak consumption, and increasing supply, the expectation of an oversupply is strong, but the short - term decline may be limited [11][12]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak. With limited consumption improvement, supply increases, and potential cost support weakening, lead prices lack upward momentum [13][14]. - Tin prices may have limited upward momentum. Although supply has marginally recovered, consumption is weak, and the market is in a destocking phase. The price rebound driven by capital reduction may face pressure [15]. - Industrial silicon prices may stop falling. With the increase in production during the southwest's wet season and the rebound of warehouse receipts, and the recovery of anti - involution sentiment, the prices are expected to stabilize [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are weak. Affected by the cooling of anti - involution governance, prices are returning to fundamentals. Technically, there is still room for decline, but policy risks remain high [18][19]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. With weakening terminal demand and an expected supply surplus, but a solid cost base, and fluctuating macro - expectations, nickel prices will remain volatile [20]. - Crude oil prices are weak. With the potential reduction of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC+'s production increase plan, along with rising stagflation concerns, oil prices are expected to be weak, but Middle - East geopolitical risks should be watched [21]. - Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish. With stable spot trading, the output of major steel products is stable, and demand is mixed. With the expected supply reduction due to the northern parade limit, prices may oscillate upwards [22][23]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. With a slight increase in port inventory, stable supply, and high steel - mill iron - water production, prices will remain range - bound, and the impact of northern parade - related production limits should be monitored [24]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. With normal precipitation in US soybean - growing areas, slow export sales of new - crop soybeans, and the upcoming arrival of Argentine soybean meal, prices will show wide - range oscillations [25]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust. With concerns about a potential US stagflation, falling oil prices, and expectations of an inventory increase in Malaysian palm oil, but support from Indonesia's B40 policy, and the entry of long - position funds, palm oil prices are in an oscillatory phase [26][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties' Trading Data - Presents the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., along with their price units [28]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [29]. - For nickel, it provides price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [29][32]. - For zinc, it presents price changes of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For lead, it shows price changes of SHFE lead and LME lead, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For aluminum, it provides price changes of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For alumina, it shows the price changes of SHFE alumina and the national average spot price, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For tin, it presents price changes of SHFE tin and LME tin, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For precious metals, it shows price changes of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For steel products, it provides price changes of SHFE rebar and hot - rolled coil, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For iron ore, it shows price changes of DCE iron ore, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For coking coal and coke, it presents price changes of DCE coking coal and coke, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For industrial silicon, it shows price changes of GFEX industrial silicon, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, it provides price changes of CBOT soybeans, DCE soybean meal, and CZCE rapeseed meal, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32].

Group 1: Earnings Reports Impact - Several tech stocks, including Supermicro, Snap, and AMD, experienced significant declines in after-hours trading due to disappointing earnings reports, with Supermicro dropping over 16%, Snap over 14%, and AMD over 6% [2][3] - Supermicro's Q4 FY2025 net sales were $5.76 billion, below the analyst expectation of $6.01 billion, with a gross margin of 9.6%, lower than the expected 10% [2] - Snap reported Q2 sales of $1.345 billion, slightly below the expected $1.35 billion, and a net loss of $262.6 million, compared to a loss of $248.6 million in the same period last year [3] - AMD's Q2 revenue grew 32% year-over-year to $7.7 billion, exceeding the analyst expectation of $7.43 billion, but adjusted EPS was $0.48, below the expected $0.49 [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The ISM services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating near stagnation in the services sector, with the employment index dropping to 46.4, the lowest since the pandemic [8] - The price index rose to 69.9, suggesting increased inflationary pressures, which complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [8] - The overall market sentiment was negatively impacted by President Trump's announcement of new tariffs, including a potential 250% tariff on imported drugs and upcoming tariffs on semiconductors [8][9] Group 3: Broader Market Trends - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, S&P 500 down 0.49%, and Nasdaq down 0.65%, with over 4,700 stocks declining [6][7] - Other large tech stocks also saw declines, including Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia, while Amazon managed a slight increase of 0.99% [5]

Group 1: Convertible Bonds Market - As of August 5, 71 convertible bonds have been delisted this year, with 51 due to redemption, leading to a total decline in convertible bond inventory by 80.564 billion yuan to 653.058 billion yuan [1] - Analysts suggest that the recovery of the equity market and the decline in new financing costs have accelerated the strong redemption and delisting of convertible bonds, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance in the market [1] Group 2: Capital Market Regulation - Regulatory authorities are intensifying penalties against third parties involved in capital market fraud, focusing on those providing substantial fraudulent services to listed companies [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking to amend laws to clarify its authority to impose administrative penalties on these fraudulent third parties [1] Group 3: Robotics Industry - Major players in the humanoid robot sector have recently secured significant contracts, with total budgets reaching 124 million yuan for various projects [2] - The primary application areas for these robots include performance interpretation and exhibition guidance, indicating a trend towards interactive service fields [2] Group 4: Pet Industry - The pet industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with leading companies like Zhongchong Co. reporting explosive growth in their main food business [3] - The industry is transitioning from basic supplies to high-end products and services, benefiting from increased pet ownership among younger demographics [3] Group 5: Education Policy - The Ministry of Education announced that in 2024, there will be 253,300 kindergartens with 35.839 million children enrolled, with the new policy expected to benefit over 10 million children [4] Group 6: Rare Earth Industry - A new intelligent demonstration line for rare earth disc motors has been established in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, marking a significant advancement in high-end rare earth permanent magnet motor development [4] Group 7: Starbucks China - Starbucks is reportedly in discussions to sell 70% of its China operations, with a valuation of up to 10 billion USD for the stake [4] Group 8: Company Transactions - Baifuk Holdings announced the sale of 1.71% of a target company's shares for 48 million yuan, reducing its stake from 17.16% to 15.46% [4] - Yonghe Intelligent Control is undergoing a change in controlling shareholder, with a transfer of 8% of shares to Hangzhou Runfeng [4] Group 9: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow down 0.14%, S&P 500 down 0.49%, and Nasdaq down 0.65%, amid concerns over inflation and economic stagnation [9] - Major tech stocks led the decline, while small-cap stocks showed resilience with a 0.6% increase [9]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged at $50 billion per month for U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion per month for MBS[5] - Powell expressed concerns about stagflation risks, indicating that as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap, the Fed will find it difficult to lower interest rates[7] Inflation and Tariffs - As of May, the actual tariff rate for the U.S. was approximately 9.6%, with potential increases to 15%-16% after new tariffs take effect on August 1, and possibly up to 18%-19% when considering specific goods[2] - The effective tariff rate could pose an inflation risk of 30-60 basis points, with the impact on inflation data expected to manifest in September and further affect October-November figures[2] Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in U.S. stocks is anticipated, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to trade agreements and supportive government policies[3] - The market currently prices a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating that the risk-free rate is no longer a positive factor[8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew by 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending slowing and real estate remaining weak[4] - Labor market conditions are showing synchronized declines in demand and supply, with a focus on the unemployment rate as a key indicator[6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商宏观 indicates that as long as the inflation gap remains higher than the employment gap, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to lower interest rates [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Powell expresses significant concern over inflation risks, suggesting that the current inflation is above target levels [1] - The Federal Reserve's forward guidance in June highlighted concerns about stagflation, which continued into July [1] Group 2: Employment Situation - Employment is currently at target levels, which contrasts with the elevated inflation, leading to a need for a moderately restrictive policy [1] - The focus on inflation over employment suggests a prioritization of controlling price levels in the current economic environment [1] Group 3: Policy Implications - The necessity for Powell to confirm that tariff-induced inflation impacts are fully reflected in the current economic assessments [1]