本期节目主要内容：新年伊始，央行集中出台多项政策举措，大力支持实体经济发展。具体措施包括下调结构性货币政策工具利率和再贷款利率，增加支农 支小再贷款额度，以及设立并扩大科技创新和技术改造再贷款等，多措并举强化对重点领域和薄弱环节的金融支持。 视频简介 ...

值得关注的是，中国人民银行还同期宣布在支农支小再贷款项下设立民营企业再贷款，额度1万亿元， 引导地方法人金融机构进一步聚焦重点，加力支持民营中小微企业。从政策逻辑看，一系列政策将构成 协同效应，通过"精准滴灌"避免资金空转，确保金融资源真正流向实体经济的创新薄弱环节，为经济结 构转型升级筑牢微观基础。 ■ 谢 岚 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，优化"两新"政策实施，进一步做好科技金融大文章，近日，中国 人民银行宣布增加4000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度，并将研发投入较高的民营中小企业纳入支 持范围。这一结构性货币政策调整，既是对"两新"政策的精准落地，更为实体经济创新发展注入了金融 活水。 4000亿元增量投放绝非简单的资金加码，而是对当下企业研发投入、设备更新、技术迭代等刚性融资需 求的精准适配与有力回应。同时，据中国人民银行1月15日最新公告，自2026年1月19日起，下调再贷 款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。科技创新和技术改造再贷款作为结构性货币政策工具，其利率将随之下 调，这对于企业而言无疑是"真金白银"的减负。 笔者认为，民营中小企业是科技创新的"生力军"，具有反应灵活、贴近市场的优势，但 ...

一、下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。各类再贷款一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到 1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。 二、将支农支小再贷款与再贴现打通使用，增加额度，并单设民营企业再贷款。合并使用支农支小再贷 款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元，总额度中单设一项民营企业再贷款，额度1万亿 元，重点支持中小民营企业。 三、增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度并扩大支持范围。将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿 元，增加4000亿元至1.2万亿元，并将研发投入水平较高的民营中小企业等纳入支持领域。 根据当前经济金融形势需要，人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措施：一方面是下调各类结构性货币政策 工具利率，提高银行重点领域信贷投放的积极性。另一方面是完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，进一步 助力经济结构转型优化。 具体内容： 国务院新闻办公室于1月15日下午举行新闻发布会。中国人民银行发布多项金融政策，支持实体经济高 质量发展。 四、合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具。将此前已经设立的民营企业债券融资支持工具、 科技创新债券风险分担工具合并管理，合计提供再贷款额度2000亿元。 五 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's reduction of various structural monetary policy tool interest rates by 25bp reflects support for the "five major articles of finance", helps stabilize the net interest margin of banks, and indicates a continued loose monetary policy, but does not directly lead to an immediate decline in interest rates or a follow - up reduction in LPR [5][13][14] - There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts (130bp) and interest rate cuts in 2026, but the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low before the Two Sessions and the first release of 2026 economic data [5][14] - The central bank will increase liquidity injection, and the overnight interest rate is expected to be slightly lower than 1.40%, which does not mean a tightening of liquidity [20] - In 2026, the central bank's treasury bond trading will mainly cooperate with fiscal policies, and it is more concerned about risks of large - scale unilateral changes in interest rates [22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Structural Monetary Policy Interest Rate Cuts - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a series of monetary and financial policies, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in various structural monetary policy tool interest rates. After the cut, the 1Y agricultural and small - business re - loan and other special tool interest rates are 1.25%, lower than the 7DOMO policy rate [5][8][13] - The reduction in interest rates can reduce banks' interest - paying costs and help stabilize the net interest margin. It is estimated that by the end of December 2025, the balance of the central bank's structural monetary policy tools will be around 5.4 trillion yuan, and the interest savings after the rate cut will be about 13.5 billion yuan. Even if all tools are fully utilized, the interest savings will only slightly exceed 20 billion yuan [5][13] - The interest rate cut does not directly lead to a decline in interest rates, and it does not meet the conditions for an LPR follow - up reduction [5][13] 3.2 Future Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cut Space - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 [14] - The current average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 6.3%, and it is expected that 5% is the bottom line, leaving a 130bp cut space [14] - The main constraint for interest rate cuts is the pressure on banks' net interest margins. Although there are factors conducive to stabilizing the net interest margin, the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut before the Two Sessions and the first release of 2026 economic data is low [14] 3.3 Follow - up Capital Market Conditions - The central bank will continue to increase liquidity injection, keep liquidity abundant, and guide the overnight interest rate to run around the policy rate [20] - The overnight interest rate in December 2025 was generally below 1.30%. Due to the dislocation of repurchase operations, the overnight interest rate rose to 1.30% - 1.40%. It is estimated that an overnight interest rate slightly lower than 1.40% is appropriate, which does not mean a tightening of liquidity [20] 3.4 Follow - up Treasury Bond Trading - In 2025, the net investment of repurchase operations was 3.8 trillion yuan, mainly achieved through treasury bond trading [22] - Two perspectives can be used to observe the central bank's treasury bond holdings. In 2025, the balance of the central bank's claims on the central government decreased by 67 billion yuan, while the balance of other institutions' treasury bond holdings increased by 37 billion yuan, and the balance of local government bond holdings of other institutions increased by 290 billion yuan [22] - In 2026, the central bank's treasury bond trading will mainly cooperate with fiscal policies, help ensure the smooth issuance of treasury bonds at a reasonable cost, and play a role in preventing market risks. The adjustment of the 10 - year treasury bond yield range may not represent a clear regulatory target [22] 3.5 Other New Monetary and Financial Policies - Merge and use the agricultural and small - business re - loan and rediscount quotas, increase the agricultural and small - business re - loan quota by 500 billion yuan, and set up a private enterprise re - loan quota of 1 trillion yuan [8] - Increase the science and technology innovation and technological transformation re - loan quota by 400 billion yuan and expand the scope of support [8] - Merge and manage the private enterprise bond financing support tool and the science and technology innovation bond risk - sharing tool, with a total re - loan quota of 200 billion yuan [8] - Reduce the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% to support the de - stocking of the commercial real estate market [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 15, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.32%, IH fell 0.24%, IC rose 0.14%, and IM rose 0.3% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 35,576 lots, 13,666 lots, 81,143 lots, and 73,493 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 12,419 lots, 3,997 lots, 17,852 lots, and 13,386 lots respectively [2] - The central bank introduced a policy "combination punch" to support the high - quality development of the real economy, including interest rate cuts and increasing loan quotas. A - share market had a divergence between large and small - cap indexes, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling in light trading volume, while the ChiNext Index rose. The semiconductor industry chain exploded in the afternoon, and the precious metals sector continued to strengthen [6] - The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated lower, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all falling. The market turnover decreased compared with the previous trading day [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2601 - IF2606 showed different changes, with the highest increase of 0.32% for IF2601. The trading volume and positions of different contracts also changed, such as the trading volume of IF2601 decreasing by 10,382 lots and the positions decreasing by 8,395 lots [1] - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2601 - IH2606 had different trends, mainly showing a decline. For example, IH2601 fell 0.24%. The trading volume and positions changes of each contract were also different [1] - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2601 - IC2606 generally showed an upward trend, with the highest increase of 0.53% for IC2606. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed accordingly [1] - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2601 - IM2606 all rose, with the highest increase of 0.56% for IM2606. The trading volume and positions of different contracts had different changes [1] 2. Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Members of Stock Index Futures - For different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, the increase or decrease of long and short positions of the top 20 members varied. For example, in IF2601, the long - position decrease was - 7442, and the short - position decrease was - 9108 [5] 3. Market Trends and Influencing Factors - The central bank's policy "combination punch" included measures such as cutting interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, increasing loan quotas, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans. The A - share market had a divergence between large and small - cap indexes, and the Hong Kong stock market fluctuated lower [6][7]

Domestic Developments - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-lending rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25%[14] - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and seven other departments have introduced measures to promote the silver economy, aiming to stimulate the vitality of various elderly service operators[9] - The Ministry of Finance has extended the personal income tax refund policy for residents who purchase new homes within one year after selling their existing homes, indicating continued government support for improving housing demand[12] International Developments - The U.S. core CPI for December increased by 2.6% year-on-year, remaining above the 2% target, while the overall CPI rose by 2.7%[18] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, which may lead to increased volatility in international oil prices[16] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a moderate recovery in U.S. economic activity, with expectations for the first rate cut now pushed to June[23] High-Frequency Data - Brent crude oil prices increased by 6.18% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 1.41% and 1.25%, respectively[25] - Real estate sales saw a week-on-week increase of 14.39%, while average daily retail sales of passenger cars fell by 32% year-on-year in the first week of January[25] Market Outlook - Key indicators to watch next week include China's GDP growth rates for Q1 to Q4, nationwide real estate development investment, and retail sales data[4] - The central bank's policy direction suggests potential for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with the current reserve requirement ratio at 6.3% providing room for adjustments[15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily evaluations and operation suggestions for various futures varieties, including expectations of price trends, market analyses, and corresponding trading strategies [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Alumina (AO2605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Caustic Soda (SH2603): Weak in the near - term [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Eggs (JD2603): Strong in the short - term [3] All - Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index Futures - A - shares continued to rise with heavy volume and then declined, with large trading divergence and high trading volume. The callback range may be limited. For stock index futures, it is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate small - and medium - cap indexes that had smaller previous gains at low prices. Use bull - spread strategies mainly and prevent risks from large fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the central bank's combined measures and the implementation of structural monetary policy interest rate cuts, the probability of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the first quarter may decrease. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate at 1.85% may be a reasonable pricing, and the certainty of a reserve requirement ratio cut is relatively high. It is expected that capital interest rates will be stable and the short - end will be stronger, and the yield curve may tend to steepen. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and participate in the steepening strategy for curve trading [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average and sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. - Silver: Policy may bring forward powder demand, intensify structural supply shortages. Keep a low - position buying idea at lows and lock in gains at highs. - Platinum: Buy at lows near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Shipping and Metals - Steel: Rebar fluctuates in the 3000 - 3200 range; hot - rolled coils fluctuate in the 3150 - 3350 range. - Iron Ore: Supply faces the off - season, and ports continue to accumulate inventory, fluctuating in the 770 - 830 range. - Coking Coal: Prices in Shanxi rise more than they fall, and trading warms up. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts after New Year's Day, the price stabilizes. Unilaterally go long at lows and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. - Silicon Iron: Costs are supportive, and supply - demand improves marginally. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5500. - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore outer - market quotes generally rise, and supply - demand improves. Fluctuate widely and try to go long at lows, with a bottom support around 5800. - Copper: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories in three locations are accumulating. Hold long positions cautiously with attention on the 99000 - 100000 support. - Alumina: Spot inventory accumulation continues, and the market fluctuates widely. The main contract operates in the 2600 - 2950 range, and sell short at highs. - Aluminum: The market reduces positions and adjusts. Be aware of emotional callback risks in the short - term. The main contract has an over - rising sign in the short - term, so do not chase long. Wait for the callback to layout long positions. - Aluminum Alloy: Inventory continues to decline, and the spot market maintains just - in - time procurement. The main contract operates in the 22000 - 24000 range. Conduct arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03. - Zinc: LME suspends zinc warehousing from South Korea, and zinc prices rise sharply. Pay attention to the 24000 support and go long at lows in the long - term. Hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions. - Tin: Market sentiment declines, and tin prices open lower at night. Be cautious in futures operations. - Nickel: The mine - end supply is expected to tighten again, and the market runs strongly. Conduct range operations with the main contract in the 140000 - 152000 range. - Stainless Steel: The market fluctuates strongly, and raw material cost support strengthens again. Fluctuate strongly with the main contract in the 13800 - 14500 range [3]. New Energy - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon futures decline and then rebound, still oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the change in poly - silicon production. The main contract operates in the 8000 - 9000 range. - Poly - silicon: Poly - silicon futures mainly fluctuate, with support at 48000. Fluctuate at a high level and wait and see. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment eases, and the market oscillates and adjusts. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and conduct positive calendar spreads. - PX: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. Focus on the 7000 support in the short - term, adopt low - position positive spreads in the medium - term, and conduct long - term low - buying. - PTA: High valuation and downstream plans for further production cuts put short - term pressure on PTA. Try to go long when PTA is below 5000, and treat it with a low - buying strategy in the medium - term. Conduct TA5 - 9 low - position positive spreads. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA; try to shrink the processing margin on the market when it is high. - Bottle - grade PET: In January, both supply and demand of bottle - grade PET decrease, and the absolute price and processing margin follow the cost side. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the 350 - 500 yuan/ton range. - Ethanol: Seasonal inventory accumulation, weak near - term supply - demand expectations, and the MEG price in January is still under pressure. Pay attention to the 4000 pressure on EG2605; conduct reverse spreads on EG5 - 9 at highs; hold short positions of out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4100. - Benzene: Supply - demand expectations improve slightly, but prices are still under pressure due to high inventory. Short - sell BR03 at highs and pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the EB - BZ spread. - Styrene: Styrene is short - term strong, but the upside is limited due to high valuation and weak expectations. Pay attention to the opportunity to short - sell EB03 at highs and the opportunity to shrink the EB processing margin when it is high [3]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The basis remains, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. Some long positions should be closed as non - standard products turn into standard products. - PP: Maintenance increases, and prices fluctuate strongly. Hold PDH profit expansion positions. - Methanol: Geopolitical disturbances cause prices to fluctuate. Wait and see. - Caustic Soda: The weak supply - demand pattern continues, and spot prices are under pressure. Wait and see. - PVC: Export disturbances amplify market fluctuations, and short - term trading focuses are no longer on supply - demand. Market fluctuations increase, and hold short positions and wait. - Urea: Agricultural demand emerges and inventory decreases, pushing up the urea price center. Close long positions taken earlier at the right time and hold short positions and wait. - Soda Ash: Device restart and increased production load lead to a new high in daily output, while demand is still weak. Take a bearish view. - Glass: Market sentiment declines, and the sales - to - production ratio continues to fall. Short - sell in the short - term. - Natural Rubber: Short - term driving forces are limited, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range. Wait and see. - Synthetic Rubber: For BR2603, the cost side strengthens, and demand expectations improve. Pay attention to the 11800 - 12000 support for BR2603; conduct arbitrage by going long on BR2603 and short on NR2603 [3]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks driving forces, and soybean meal fluctuates. Fluctuate within a range. - Live Pigs: Driven by capital sentiment, the market is short - term strong. Fluctuate within a range. - Corn: Supply remains tight, and the market fluctuates at a high level. Run at a high level. - Oils: There are many recent disturbing factors, and short - term fluctuations intensify. Palm oil tests the 8750 support in the short - term. - Sugar: India's sugar - crushing speeds up, and prices are under pressure at highs. Fluctuate weakly within a range and pay attention to the 5300 resistance. - Cotton: The US export sales report provides support, and cotton prices fluctuate and adjust. Fluctuate at a high level. - Eggs: Egg prices are stable or rising, and supply - demand pressure is not large. Fluctuate strongly within a range and pay attention to the previous high of 3100 pressure. - Red Dates: Not provided - Apples: Market sentiment cools down, and futures prices fluctuate at a high level. Market trading is weak, and futures prices decline. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options and short - sell on rebounds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the nickel market, the tightening expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has led to a significant increase in nickel prices. However, due to high short - term inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, the price may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. For the stainless - steel market, prices are likely to continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak fundamentals in demand and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 143,000 yuan/ton and closed at 146,750 yuan/ton, a 4.08% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,738,133 (+667,439) lots, and the open interest was 101,617 (-8,358) lots. The price showed a pattern of "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock", driven by the expectation of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. The People's Bank of China's policy of lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools also supported the non - ferrous metal sector [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was generally stable. Indonesia's official benchmark price for the second half of January was raised as expected, supporting market sentiment. Mines maintained firm quotes, but there were no new public tenders or transactions. The market was in an adaptation period after the price change, and trading was light [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or slightly down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 41,972 (1,700) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,282 (624) tons [2]. Strategy - If Indonesia's quota policy is strictly implemented, it will gradually affect nickel ore supply and support prices. In the short term, due to high inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, prices may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. The recommended strategy is to mainly conduct range operations and go long on dips [1][3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,985 yuan/ton and closed at 14,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 489,832 (+275,816) lots, and the open interest was 145,444 (-4,171) lots. The price showed a "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock" pattern, driven by the expectation of reduced nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. There was a game between cost - side drivers and weak demand and inventory pressure, and capital games intensified [3][5]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, spot prices continued to rise, but downstream acceptance was low, and trading was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,350 (+450) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,300 (+500) yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 30.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,012.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Prices may continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak demand fundamentals and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, avoid chasing high prices, and consider going long on dips. The unilateral strategy is neutral [6].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - The central bank mainly announced structural policies, giving positive expectations for future RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, but market confidence is insufficient, and interest rates have rebounded. The clear window for long - positions in the bond market may still need to wait. In a context of loose liquidity, it is recommended to adopt a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term. If supply disruptions and the spring rally of equities do not exceed expectations in the short term, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. Looking further, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored. If the economic and financial data are stabilized by structural monetary policies, the bond market may face a longer period of oscillation [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seven Key Points of the Central Bank Press Conference - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: These are to be implemented first, collaborating with fiscal policies to boost domestic demand and economic structural transformation, ensuring a good start. They have been optimized in price, quantity, and direction. For example, interest rates of various tools were cut by 0.25 percentage points, and the quota for certain loans was increased [7][9] - **Aggregate Monetary Policy**: Aggregate monetary policy easing still needs time. However, the central bank has conveyed positive expectations, and there is still significant room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts with reduced constraints [10] - **Funds**: "Guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy rate" is equivalent to "guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy rate". Short - term funds face little pressure, but future broad - credit and growth - stabilizing effects need to be observed [12] - **Bonds**: The central bank's reasonable range for the 10 - year Treasury yield is around 1.8%, with a difference of about 10BP between the upper and lower limits. The overall bond market interest rate is stable and reasonable [15] - **Treasury Bond Trading**: If the bond market experiences an excessive decline, the central bank may increase the scale and extend the term of Treasury bond trading to maintain stability [17] - **Inflation**: The central bank has a positive view on inflation, believing it has shown an upward trend. The possibility of aggregate easing based on price levels in the short term is low [18] - **Exchange Rate**: The exchange rate is likely to fluctuate and appreciate. In the first half of 2026, it may have a narrow - range oscillation, and it is expected to break through the oscillation range in the second half [19] 2. Outlook on Bonds after the Central Bank Press Conference - The bond market's clear long - position window may still need to wait. In a loose liquidity environment, a coupon - based strategy from short - term to long - term is more important. If short - term factors do not exceed expectations, there will be a bullish inflection point for interest rates in late January. In the long run, the effectiveness of broad credit should be monitored [2][21] - Currently, short - term credit carry is more cost - effective, with lower fluctuations. For long - term bonds, large - scale banks are optimistic, while non - bank institutions are cautious. The key lies in whether short - sellers in the trading market are cleared and whether the liability side returns to stability. For certificates of deposit, they also have certain investment value as they remain oscillating slightly above 1.6% [22]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 01 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场高位震荡，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.16%，成交额 2.94 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.2%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.05%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.2%， | | | | 上证 50 指数下跌 0.21%。央行将下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 25BP。 | | | | 结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养 | | | | 老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总 | | | | 量稳定的基础上，对于特定领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中， | | | 股指 | 有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。此外，更低的融资成本有助 | 震荡 | | | 于相关板块资本性支出提升，促进企业盈利的增加，有助于长期资金提升对 | | | | 相关题材的配置。此前，沪深交易所发布通知，将融资买入证券保证金最低 | | | | 比 ...