全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen在一份报告中写道，预计FOMC将在2026年再进行一次幅度25个基点的降 息，明显少于目前市场预期的约50个基点。 降息最终是否会实现，可能取决于劳动力市场的情况。 该机构认为，美国劳动力市场将趋于稳定甚至改善。 责任编辑：王永生 据摩根大通私人银行，随着美国就业市场趋于稳定或改善，美联储降息力度可能会比市场预期的要小。 据摩根大通私人银行，随着美国就业市场趋于稳定或改善，美联储降息力度可能会比市场预期的要小。 全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen在一份报告中写道，预计FOMC将在2026年再进行一次幅度25个基点的降 息，明显少于目前市场预期的约50个基点。 降息最终是否会实现，可能取决于劳动力市场的情况。 该机构认为，美国劳动力市场将趋于稳定甚至改善。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $4206 per ounce, with a lack of follow-up buying support despite expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - Geopolitical uncertainties from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The focus remains on the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts and Chairman Powell's statements following the policy meeting [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices showed a strong rebound after hitting a low of $4169, with a daily close at $4108, indicating a bullish outlook [4] - The key support level is identified at $4195, which has turned from a resistance level to a strong support [4] - The suggested trading strategy is to maintain a bullish stance, focusing on buying on dips and monitoring resistance levels between $4230 and $4250 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil is trading around $58.40, with market sentiment cautious due to a strong dollar and recovering supply [5] - Recent employment data from the U.S. indicates a resilient labor market, which may support the dollar and impact commodity prices [5] - The market is closely watching inventory data, as significant reductions could lead to a rebound in oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The current trend for oil is bearish, with prices testing the support level around $56 [6] - The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum is dominant, and the short-term outlook remains downwards [6] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on selling on rebounds, with resistance levels identified between $59.5 and $60.5, and support levels between $57.0 and $56.0 [6]

2025年接近尾声，美联储即将迎来年度"收官之战"。北京时间12月11日凌晨3点，美联储将公布利率决 议和经济预期摘要，半个小时后美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。 整体而言，市场认为美联储降息25个基点几成定局，关注焦点已经转向这次会出现几张反对票和"点阵 图"。鲍威尔的讲话基调以及他明年是否会继续留在美联储理事会也是关注重点。 华尔街对明年愈发迷茫。高盛研究公司首席经济学家哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）表示，虽然美联储在今年12 月很可能会降息，但2026年的货币政策前景较难预测。美联储或将在明年1月暂停降息，然后在3月和6 月继续降息，最终将联邦基金利率降至3%~3.25%。 随着美联储明年迎来新主席，政治压力下货币政策路径将更加迷雾重重。 降息几成定局 市场普遍认为，本周美联储降息25个基点已经没有太大悬念。美联储主席热门候选人、美国白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文·哈西特也直言，美联储可能会在本周降息，并预计降息幅度为25个基点。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对21世纪经济报道记者表示，本周美联储降息25个基点确实已几乎没有悬 念，CME美联储观察工具显示，市场预期本周议息会议降息25个基点的概 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in non-farm employment in the U.S. since mid-2025, highlighting the rising risk of unemployment and the impact of AI on the job market. It questions whether the trend of "no employment growth" will continue into 2026 [1]. Group 1: AI and Employment - AI adoption in U.S. companies has increased from 3.7% two years ago to 10% as of September 2025, with a notable rise in layoffs, particularly in the tech sector [1][5]. - The structural impact of AI is evident in high-exposure industries, younger workers, and high-paying jobs, but it is not the primary cause of the employment downturn in 2025 [1][12]. - The correlation between AI adoption rates and employment growth is weak, with an R² value of 0.09, indicating limited overall impact on job losses [26][112]. Group 2: Causes of Employment Decline in 2025 - The decline in employment is attributed to both supply and demand factors, with illegal immigration net inflow decreasing by 1.6 to 2 million, explaining about 50% of the employment slowdown [2][52]. - Government layoffs accounted for 37% of the employment decline, with tariffs and AI's substitution effects also contributing significantly [2][62]. - The employment growth in sectors sensitive to tariffs has slowed by two-thirds compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing challenges in the job market [2][62]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The labor supply is expected to continue contracting in 2026, while demand may stabilize, maintaining low levels of equilibrium employment [3][83]. - Short-term unemployment risks remain high due to potential triggers from tariffs, government shutdowns, and AI's substitution effects, with a threshold for triggering the "Sam Rule" estimated at around 4.7% [3][96]. - The economic landscape is likely to remain characterized by a "K-shaped" recovery, complicating Federal Reserve decision-making regarding monetary policy [3][100].

Group 1: AI Impact on Employment - AI adoption in the U.S. has increased from 3.7% to 10% in two years, with significant impacts on high-exposure industries and young workers[1] - The number of layoffs in October 2025 reached 153,000, a 175% increase year-on-year, with 21.7% of layoffs occurring in the tech sector[1] - Despite concerns, AI is not the primary cause of the employment downturn; the correlation between AI adoption and employment growth is weak (R²=0.09)[2] Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market has experienced a "low recruitment, low layoffs" state, with non-farm employment numbers showing a significant decline since early 2025[3] - Illegal immigration net inflow decreased by 1.6 to 2 million in 2025, explaining about 50% of the employment slowdown[3] - Government layoffs and tariff impacts contributed to 37% of the employment decline, while the influence of AI on white-collar jobs was only 7.6%[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, the labor supply may continue to contract while demand stabilizes, maintaining a low equilibrium in employment levels[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, with a risk of triggering the "Sam Rule" at around 4.7%[4] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing monetary policy amid a "K-shaped" economic recovery, where labor shortages could enhance labor share while surpluses may lead to economic divergence[4]

然而，与稳定的失业率形成对比的是，民间数据反映出就业创造动能的减弱。据Revelio Labs报告，美国经济在十一月份减少了约九千个工作岗位，这是继 十月份估算减少九千一百个岗位之后，连续第二个月出现下滑。岗位流失主要集中在休闲和酒店业、零售业以及制造业。 在美国官方就业报告因故推迟发布的情况下，多项民间机构数据与联储估算为市场提供了观测劳动力市场的替代窗口。最新信息显示，美国失业率保持稳 定，但新增就业岗位出现收缩，为经济前景增添了不确定性，并可能影响美联储近期的政策决策。 另一份受市场密切关注的ADP就业报告也传递了类似信号。报告显示，十一月美国民间部门就业岗位减少三点二万个，为二零二三年三月以来的最大月度降 幅，与市场此前预期的增加形成鲜明反差。 芝加哥联邦储备银行本周四公布的估算数据显示，十一月份美国失业率维持在百分之四点四左右，与十月份水平基本持平。这一估算旨在为政策制定者提供 更及时的经济指标参考。具体而言，未经四舍五入的失业率从十月的百分之四点四六微幅变动至十一月的百分之四点四四，显示劳动力市场整体状态变化不 大。美国劳工统计局上一次公布的官方数据为九月份百分之四点四四的失业率。 当前，美国劳动 ...

高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，市场普遍预期美联储将于今年十二月实施降息，但后续政策路径，尤其是二零二六年的前景，则显得迷雾重重。报告认为， 尽管十二月降息二十五个基点的可能性极高，然而明年美国经济可能出现的增长加速与通胀降温，或将促使美联储调整其宽松节奏。 通胀走势是支持这一预测的重要支柱。报告分析指出，美国核心通胀压力已有所缓解，潜在通胀率已降至约百分之二。随着此前加征关税带来的价格传导效 应在明年中期逐渐消退，实际通胀率有望进一步回落。这一判断的前提是贸易政策环境保持相对稳定且金融市场不出现剧烈波动。 与相对乐观的增长和通胀展望形成对比的，是报告对美国劳动力市场更深层的担忧。尽管官方数据表现尚可，但高盛自身构建的指标显示就业增长动力可能 弱于表象。尤其值得关注的是，美国大学毕业生的就业市场出现显著降温，年轻毕业生的失业率从近期低点攀升了约百分之七十。报告提示，这种结构性疲 软可能反映了技术变革带来的效率提升等因素的影响，若持续恶化，可能对消费者支出构成压力，并增加未来货币政策进一步宽松的理由。 综合来看，高盛的报告描绘了一幅短期政策明确、中长期路径充满不确定性的图景。十二月的降息似乎已是共识下的最后一环，而 ...

周五(12月5日)亚洲时段，白银期货拉升走强，截至发稿，沪银主力合约暂报13622.00元/千克，上涨 0.03%，目前来看，沪银主力盘内短线偏上行。投资者目前正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月PCE物价 指数报告，小心引爆白银市场行情！ 【要闻速递】 周四公布的数据显示，上周美国初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，是逾三年来最低，远低于经济学家预期 的22万人。该数据降低了市场对美国劳动市场恶化的担忧，但并未改变市场对下周美联储降息的预期。 美国10年期国债收益率上涨5.2个基点至4.108%，30年期收益率上涨4.1个基点至4.766%，两年期收益率 上涨4.5个基点至3.531%。这一抛售潮部分归因于劳动力市场韧性的显现，略微打击了降息预期，同时 投资者在美联储会议前整固仓位。 投资者目前正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月PCE物价指数报告，这是美联储最青睐的通胀指标。北 京时间周五23:00，美国经济分析局将公布9月份个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数，势必会引发金融市场的 剧烈波动。 周四，尽管最新的美国就业数据显示劳动力市场依然坚挺，但降温迹象也开始显现，白银价格小幅上 涨。市场对美联储降息的预期支撑了银价。 ...

日本股市走低，市场继续对日本央行近期加息的可能性以及美国劳动力市场的强劲势头持谨慎态度。日 经指数下跌1.3%，报50，378.09点。电子和零售股领跌。瑞萨电子下跌4.3%，永旺株式会社下跌2.4%。 投资者正密切关注经济数据和首相高市早苗为提振该国经济而采取的政策措施。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 日本股市走低，市场继续对日本央行近期加息的可能性以及美国劳动力市场的强劲势头持谨慎态度。日 经指数下跌1.3%，报50，378.09点。电子和零售股领跌。瑞萨电子下跌4.3%，永旺株式会社下跌2.4%。 投资者正密切关注经济数据和首相高市早苗为提振该国经济而采取的政策措施。 ...

据悉，该数据包含上周四的感恩节假日，假期期间的申请数据通常波动较大。目前的初请失业金人数水 平与处于历史低位的裁员情况相符，或将缓解市场对劳动力市场急剧恶化的担忧。周三的ADP就业报告 显示，11月私营部门就业人数降幅创两年半多来最大。 智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的数据显示，美国截至11月29日当周初请失业金人数为19.1万，为2022年 9月24日当周以来新低，不及市场预期的22万人。截至11月22日当周续请失业金人数193.9万人，市场预 期为196.1万人;截至11月29日当周初请失业金人数四周均值为21.475万人。这份低于预期的初请失业金 数据表明美国劳动力市场仍未出现显著恶化的迹象，但似乎并不会对美联储本月的降息前景造成太大影 响。根据芝商所的"美联储观察"工具，交易员预计美联储在本月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。 值得注意的是，劳工统计局备受关注的11月非农就业报告原定于周五发布，但因政府停摆而推迟，现定 于12月16日公布。经济学家认为，美国劳动力市场仍处于"不裁员、不招聘"状态。 ...