Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a resilient consumer spending trend in the U.S., with June retail sales exceeding expectations by growing 0.6%, and core retail sales increasing by 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight decline in consumer confidence, consumers are maintaining spending levels, driven by an "opportunistic" mindset towards purchasing big-ticket items, indicating a robust economic foundation [3] - Labor market data shows strength, with initial jobless claims dropping by 7,000 to 221,000, a three-month low, which supports consumer spending [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis of gold T+D indicates key resistance levels between 778-811 yuan/gram and important support levels between 761-790 yuan/gram [4] - A breakthrough above 785 yuan/gram could open up upward movement towards the critical level of 820 yuan/gram, while a drop below 750 yuan/gram may lead to further declines [4] - Current prices are at a critical decision point, necessitating close monitoring of breakout directions [4]

美联储理事库格勒：美国劳动力市场稳定且具有韧性。 ...

金十数据7月17日讯，美国失业救济申请人数连续第五周下降，降至4月中旬以来的最低水平，显示就业 市场保持韧性。经历5月和6月的上升趋势后，每周申领人数已回落至疫情前的低位水平。但与此同时， 持续申领人数接近2021年以来的最高水平，这一迹象表明，由于招聘速度放缓，美国失业者仍难以找到 新工作。下周公布的持续申领人数数据可能会更清晰地反映7月劳动力市场的健康状况。 经济学家称， 持续申领人数居高不下，意味着失业率可能上升。 初请五连降 但续请人数接近2021年高位 ...

根据《华尔街日报》的季度专业预测者调查，经济学家们预计，美国总统特朗普政策所带来的经济后果 可能没有担心的那么可怕，与三个月前相比，他们预计现在美国经济增长和就业创造将更强劲，衰退风 险更低，通胀更温和。 原因在于，上一次的调查是在特朗普威胁要对美国最大的贸易伙伴们征收"令人瞠目结舌的"关税的高峰 期进行的。此后不久，他暂停了部分关税。 这种改善的情绪是否会持续还有待观察。上周，特朗普告诉包括巴西、加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟在内的众 多贸易伙伴，他们将从8月1日开始面临远高于以往的关税。 作为衡量裁员情况的近实时指标，每周的初次申请失业救济金人数并未显示出任何令人担忧的迹象，而 今年早些时候曾呈自由落体式下滑的商业和消费者信心，似乎已经企稳，标普500指数本月创下历史新 高。 也许最重要的是，经济学家们曾广泛预测的由关税驱动的通胀飙升尚未实现。剔除了波动的食品和能源 成分的核心通胀5月份同比上涨2.8%，为四年来最低，尽管仍高于美联储2%的目标。 可以肯定的是，特朗普的政策正在影响消费者和企业的行为。随着消费者和公司赶在关税前行动，第一 季度商品进口同比增长了26%。在4月份关税生效后，进口量大幅下跌。 毕马威美国 ...

Market Overview - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support for gold prices, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields limit its upward potential [1] - The complex signals from the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts add further uncertainty to gold price trends [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the current range, with a significant breakthrough above $3,400 being challenging unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [1] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [1] Gold Price Analysis - Gold experienced minimal fluctuations, primarily trading within the $3,310-$3,330 range, with a noted drop to $3,310 before rebounding [2] - The daily chart shows two consecutive small bullish candles, with gold still operating below the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend despite the current position [2] - The hourly chart indicates that gold is currently around $3,327, with upward movement supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and bullish indicators suggesting a preference for long positions [2] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation to buy gold at $3,314-$3,317 with a stop loss at $3,309 and a take profit target of $3,330-$3,335 [3] - A recommendation to sell gold at $3,342-$3,345 with a stop loss at $3,350 and a take profit target of $3,325 [3]

美国劳动力市场仍稳 点评 2025年5月非农就业数据 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025年07月04日 分析师:杨畅 相关报告 报告摘要 总体来看,6月美国新增非农总数偏稳、失业率回落,指向劳动力市场仍稳健运行, 但背后仍存三点隐忧需要关注:第一,行业结构分化较大,州和地方政府新增就业分 别创近 29个月、15个月新高,合计大幅增长 8万人,支撑了非农总体增量的 54.4%, 与此同时,服务业新增就业明显放缓,联邦政府就业连续第五个月萎缩。第二,住户 调查数据显示,整体劳动力人口下降 13.0万人,显示劳动力供给明显减少,这将同时 压低失业率的分子与分母,意味着失业率回落一定程度由于劳动力市场整体萎缩。此 外,外国出生的劳动力人数环比下降 13.4万人,连续第三个月回落,显示特朗普政府 强硬移民政策对劳动力供给的压降作用。第三,时薪增速放缓,居民消费需求仍可能 降温。 对美联储而言,这份超预期的非农数据反映出整体经济形势在短期仍有韧性,这可能 会支持他们在7月议息会议上保持按兵不动继续观望,但9月降息成为大概率事件。 数据公布后,FedWatch 显示市场定价美联储在 2025年将降息 2.1 次/53 ...

Group 1 - The latest initial jobless claims data indicates a decline to 233,000, the lowest in six weeks, which is below the market expectation of 240,000, suggesting some stability in the labor market [1][2] - However, the continuing claims remain high at 1.964 million, the highest level since fall 2021, raising concerns about the quality and stability of employment [1][2] - The disparity between initial claims decreasing and continuing claims increasing points to a deeper issue regarding job quality and the difficulty of re-employment for those laid off [2][3] Group 2 - The persistent high level of continuing claims suggests that the job market is transitioning from a "job scarcity" phase to a "job matching difficulty" phase, indicating a mismatch in labor supply and demand [2][3] - Structural challenges in certain industries, such as manufacturing, technology, and real estate, contribute to the high continuing claims, as workers find it hard to secure new jobs in different sectors [2][3] - The high continuing claims data adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, as it may influence their assessment of the labor market's true condition [2][3][4] Group 3 - From a consumer perspective, job stability directly impacts spending willingness and confidence, with high continuing claims potentially suppressing consumer spending among lower-income groups [4] - The ongoing employment pressure, despite easing inflation, may increase financial burdens on residents, further hindering growth in the service and retail sectors [4] - Policymakers need to consider multiple dimensions of labor market data, as the divergence in employment statistics complicates future policy directions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong U.S. labor market and solid economic fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - June non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with May's figure revised from 139,000 to 144,000 and April's from 147,000 to 158,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, significantly lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [2]. - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, slightly below expectations and the previous value of 62.4% [2]. - Hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.9% [2]. - The overall employment growth and declining unemployment rate suggest a strong labor market, although the private sector saw a decrease of 63,000 jobs when excluding government job additions [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the non-farm data, the market now anticipates a 93% probability that the July interest rate will remain unchanged, with expectations for rate cuts starting in September, totaling two cuts within the year [3]. - The Federal Reserve's need to lower rates is supported by the actual interest rate being 1.78%, which is higher than the natural rate of 1.0% by 0.78 percentage points [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has previously hindered the Fed's ability to cut rates, but as this uncertainty diminishes, the likelihood of rate cuts increases [3]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields have recently declined too quickly, potentially leading to a reallocation opportunity if rates rise due to increased bond supply and temporary inflation spikes [4]. - The potential passage of significant fiscal legislation could result in approximately $1 trillion in bond issuance from July to September, which, along with inflationary pressures, may drive interest rates higher [4]. - The stock market is also expected to face challenges in the third quarter, but any volatility could present reallocation opportunities, maintaining a non-pessimistic outlook [4].

宏观研究团队 ——美国 6 月非农就业数据点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 6 月非农就业数据。其中新增非农就业 14.7 万，超市场预期。 失业率为 4.1%，平均时薪同比增长 3.7%，低于市场预期。 宏观经济点评 政府就业支撑美国 6 月非农再超预期 1. 新增非农就业再超市场预期，且前值经历小幅上修 6 月美国新增非农就业 14.7 万人，较 5 月份初值（13.9 万）回升，且大幅高于 市场预期的 10.6 万。4 月、5 月新增非农就业累计上修 1.6 万，为 2025 年首 次。趋势上看，近 3 个月平均新增就业 14.97 万人，亦出现上行。结构上看， 政府就业贡献了 6 月新增非农就业的将近 50%，主要是州和地方政府，较为罕 见。私人部门方面，建筑业、零售业新增就业较 5 月上升较多。总体看，6 月 非农数据显示当前美国劳动力市场韧性较为明显，但考虑到 6 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 147,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [1][5] - The upward revisions of previous months' employment data further confirm the underlying strength of the labor market [5] Employment Growth - Despite the positive June figures, overall employment growth is showing signs of slowing down, indicating that companies are becoming more cautious in hiring due to economic uncertainties [6] - Employers are more inclined to retain existing staff rather than engage in large-scale hiring, reflecting a trend of "labor hoarding" [6] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly wage growth in June was 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9%, suggesting a decrease in wage inflation pressure, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7] Structural Issues in the Labor Market - Significant disparities exist in unemployment rates among different demographic groups, with the Black unemployment rate rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites have decreased [8] - The number of long-term unemployed has increased to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, indicating ongoing challenges for certain labor segments [8] Industry Performance - Government employment increased by 73,000, particularly in state government education, while healthcare added 39,000 jobs, highlighting the public sector and essential services as key drivers of job growth [9] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July significantly decreased [10] - The probability of a September rate cut also dropped from 98% to approximately 80%, reflecting confidence in the current labor market conditions [10] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong labor market performance reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, with market expectations shifting towards potential cuts in September or December [11] - Future non-farm data and inflation reports will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [12]