Core Insights - The global commodity futures market has shown significant divergence in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with the CRB price index closing at 300.6 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.31% [1][3] - Precious metals, particularly U.S. platinum futures, have seen substantial gains, with platinum futures rising by 77.45%, leading the performance among other commodity futures [1][3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that the macro environment for commodities may stabilize due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, although the divergence in commodity performance is expected to continue due to fundamental differences among various commodities [1][5] Commodity Performance - Among the 32 major global commodity futures, 12 commodities achieved positive returns in the first three quarters, representing 37.5% of the total [3] - Precious metals such as COMEX silver, COMEX gold, and U.S. palladium futures also recorded significant gains, with increases of 60.12%, 47.35%, and 42.11% respectively [3] - Conversely, several soft commodities experienced notable declines, with ICE orange juice futures dropping by 50.23%, and ICE cocoa futures down by 41.91% [4][5] Market Analysis - Analysts indicate that the recent surge in platinum prices is driven by both macroeconomic and supply-demand factors, with a projected supply-demand gap for platinum expected to reach a historically high level by 2025 [5] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are anticipated to continue, with expectations of two more cuts in the fourth quarter, which may support the prices of gold and other assets [5][6] - The outlook for oil prices suggests a potential decline due to increasing supply and seasonal demand drops, with Brent crude oil futures expected to trade between $59 and $74 per barrel [6] Sector-Specific Insights - In the copper market, the initiation of a preventive rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to bolster overseas demand, while supply constraints due to mining accidents may support copper prices, projected to range between $9,800 and $11,000 per ton in the fourth quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached their highest level since May of last year, driven by supply-side disruptions and improving manufacturing sentiment in China, although downstream demand remains subdued [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The night trading session for copper saw a high opening and a closing increase of 1.27%, with prices slightly retreating during the day [1] - The US dollar index is under pressure, contributing to a generally positive trend in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points in September, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, and risks of a US government shutdown have increased, further pressuring the US dollar [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The disruption at the Grasberg mine has been largely priced in, but copper prices have shifted to a higher trading range with strong support below [1] - Domestic refined copper social inventory has shown a significant increase due to high copper prices suppressing downstream demand and the end of pre-holiday stockpiling [1] - Despite being the traditional peak demand season, downstream performance in the copper market is weak, with low stocking sentiment among downstream enterprises due to high prices and short-term pricing periods [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Grasberg project's shutdown is expected to continue to lower the growth forecast for refined copper production in the coming years [1] - China's target for average growth in non-ferrous metal production has been adjusted down to 1.5% for the next two years, with expectations of continued production cuts in October [1] - The low social inventory levels suggest that copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market trading has become lighter, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises is relatively weak due to the approaching National Day holiday, the lead ore supply remains relatively tight. Coupled with the overall positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle on non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 113 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,065 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 76,219 lots, an increase of 26,944 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 48,797 lots, a decrease of 11,865 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,110 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,845 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price [2] Inventory - On September 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 29, the LME lead inventory was 218,825 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market, with the buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) jumping over 3%, reaching a four-year high, and attracting a net subscription of 14.4 million units [1] - Key stocks such as Xiyegongsi and Huaxi Youse hit the daily limit, while Huayou Cobalt rose over 9%, and Jiangxi Copper and Baiyin Youse increased by more than 7% [1] - Major stocks like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum rose over 4% [1] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $3,876 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with expectations of further upward movement due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [3] - Factors supporting precious metal prices include increased demand for safe-haven assets, central bank gold purchases, and inflation expectations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is seen as a key "slow variable" benefiting the entire non-ferrous sector, with different metals responding at different paces [4] Group 3 - The macro drivers for gold include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical disturbances increasing safe-haven demand, and central bank accumulation [5] - Strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and tin are expected to benefit from global geopolitical dynamics [5] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to enhance production efficiency and improve market expectations, positively impacting metal prices [4][5] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its connected funds track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings of copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), providing a diversified investment approach [6] - The index has shown varied performance over the past five years, with significant fluctuations in returns, indicating the importance of diversification in investment strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices, with spot gold surpassing $3,800 per ounce, marking a new historical high, and an increase of over 1% in a single day [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has accumulated an increase of nearly 45%, indicating strong market performance [1] - Spot silver also experienced a daily increase of 2.26%, reaching $47.09 per ounce, reflecting a positive trend in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The analysis attributes the strong performance of gold futures to several factors, including expectations of further monetary easing following the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - Increased geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] - The growth in global gold ETF holdings, along with robust domestic consumption demand, has created a synergistic effect supporting the upward trend in gold prices [1]

Global Research China Equity Strategy Overview of A-share sector and style performance during Fed's rate cut cycles Fed resumes rate cut cycle The Fed announced a 25bp rate cut on 17 September, lowering the Fed fund rate target to 4.00-4.25%. This resumes the rate cut cycle after a nine-month pause since 19 December 2024. The UBS US macro team expects further 25bp/50bp cuts in October/ December as the unemployment data is likely to weaken over October-November. A-share sector and style performance during Fe ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to show a strong and volatile pattern in Q4 2025, with the main fluctuation range between 20,400 - 21,400 yuan. The global economic outlook is improving, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has started, and domestic policies are providing support. Supply has limited increments and rigid constraints, while overall demand remains resilient with a strong new - energy sector and a weak real - estate sector [5][12]. - It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions when the price is below 20,000 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In Q4, the global economic outlook improves, the Fed starts the interest - rate cut cycle, and domestic policies provide support. Supply has limited increments and rigid constraints. The new - energy sector is strong while the real - estate sector is weak, and overall demand remains resilient. The aluminum price in Q4 2025 is expected to be in a strong and volatile pattern [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider holding medium - term long positions when the price is below 20,000 [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is advisable to avoid risks and wait and see due to the approaching long holiday. Appropriate holiday inventory can be allocated. Hedging suggestions are provided for spot enterprises [8]. Overall View Market Conditions - **Bauxite Market**: In Q4, the disturbances in Guinea's bauxite market are expected to be controllable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70 - 75 dollars/ton. Domestic mine governance policies will have long - term constraints on domestic ores, and the supply in Q4 is unlikely to improve significantly [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the domestic alumina's built - in capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,670 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.95%. Some high - cost enterprises may cut production and conduct maintenance in October as the average monthly price declines [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum's built - in capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 4,500 million tons, and the operating capacity is 4,410 million tons with a high operating rate of 98%. The net increase in production this year is expected to be less than 50 million tons. The import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,400 yuan/ton, and aluminum exports are expected to remain resilient [9]. Demand Conditions - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum profiles remains stable at 54.60%. Construction profiles have limited growth due to the weak real - estate market. Auto profiles are stable and improving, but enterprises are skeptical about future order increments. Photovoltaic profiles' major enterprises maintain a high operating rate, but new orders are expected to decline [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increases by 0.8 percentage points to 69.0%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises increases by 0.7 percentage points to 72.6%. The overall operating rate of the aluminum foil industry in October is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increases by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The power grid project is in the peak construction season, and overseas photovoltaic order effects are emerging, ensuring the order saturation of the State Grid in Q4 and next year [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy enterprises increases by 1% to 58.4%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increases by 0.7 percentage points to 56.6%. The overall operating rate of the industry will decline during the National Day holiday [10]. Inventory Conditions - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 61.5 million tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and about 12% lower than the same period last year. It is expected to increase by 6 - 8 million tons during the double festivals. The inventory of aluminum rods is 11.36 million tons, a decrease of about 13% from last week and about 5% higher than last year. LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue accumulating [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices decline slightly, coal prices decline slightly, and alumina prices continue to decline slightly. In Q4, Guinea's bauxite price is likely to fluctuate between 70 - 75 dollars, corresponding to a cash cost of 2,900 - 3,100 yuan for alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan using imported ores. Aluminum prices decline slightly, with the Fed's interest - rate cut followed by a dollar rebound suppressing the financial premium of metals, but domestic policies provide support [13][14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory increases slightly, and alumina inventory continues to accumulate. The domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreases, and it is expected to increase during the double festivals. Aluminum rod inventory decreases. LME aluminum inventory continues to increase [15][17]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,600 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increases by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%. The market shows strong domestic demand and emerging sectors offsetting traditional weakness, but small and medium - sized enterprises face order and funding pressures [19][24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,110 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continues to rise. Since June, both long and short positions have been increasing, and the overall market is still optimistic [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract turns to a net short position. Since mid - September, both long and short positions have decreased significantly, with the long - position reduction slightly greater than the short - position reduction. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds continues to decrease slightly. The funds of mid - and downstream enterprises are in a stalemate. The pre - holiday market has strong risk - aversion sentiment [40].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations as the holiday approached, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing initial gains before narrowing. The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw significant inflows, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) initially rose over 2%, with net subscriptions reaching 15 million units, translating to over 20 million yuan in net inflows by 10:15 AM [1]. - The index components of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF showed mixed performance, with the copper sector leading gains, particularly Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 4% [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) covers a broad range of metals, with copper accounting for 30% of its composition, making it a leading index in terms of copper and gold content [4]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is addressing the "involution" competition in copper smelting, proposing measures to control capacity expansion [7]. - Global refined copper consumption is projected at 28.65 million tons in 2024, with China alone consuming 17 million tons, highlighting the country's dominant position in the market [8]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts expected to strengthen copper prices [10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is anticipated to support gold prices in the long term [11]. - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-side policies, demand recovery, and global economic trends [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent copper mine incident has reignited the rally in industrial metals stocks in the A-share market, following a previous surge in cobalt-related stocks due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 25, the industrial metals sector in the A-share market rose by 1.31%, with net inflows of nearly 1.6 billion yuan [1]. - The industrial metals sector has seen an overall increase of over 50% since the low point in April, with nearly 20 stocks doubling in market value [9][20]. - Major players in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, experienced stock price increases exceeding 5% [3][11]. Group 2: Key Events and Drivers - The Grasberg copper mine incident in Indonesia, which resulted in production halts and a projected 35% drop in output by 2026, has significantly impacted copper prices, pushing them to a new high of 82,710 yuan per ton [8]. - The recent policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo regarding cobalt exports, including an extension of the export suspension until October 2025, have raised concerns about future supply and contributed to price increases in the cobalt market [12][13]. Group 3: Company Insights - Zijin Mining's stock has surged by 80% this year, with copper sales contributing significantly to its revenue, accounting for 27.8% of sales and 38.5% of gross profit [7]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has increased by 145% since April, driven by rising prices of its main products, with a reported revenue of 94.77 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite a year-on-year decline [11][20]. - The copper production from Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to reach 650,000 tons in 2024, marking a 65% increase year-on-year [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the industrial metals sector will continue to benefit from macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic supply-side reforms [14][15]. - The overall sentiment in the industrial metals market remains positive, with expectations of sustained demand and price increases due to global economic recovery and strategic metal pricing dynamics [17][20].

研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜窄幅震荡美联储主席鲍威尔表示，需要在未来的利率决策中平衡通胀担忧与 趋弱的就业市场，美元指数上涨，施压铜价，但日内 A 股大幅上涨，令资金风偏 上升。铜现货价涨 35 至 80045，现货升水持平 55，临近假期下游备货情绪较弱， 升水承压，盘面结构也持续在平水附近，短期高铜价抑制下游节前备货情绪，不 过美联储降息周期下弱美元难改，以及中 ...