8月22日下午两点半，债券市场持续下探，哀鸿遍野。十年期国债活跃券收益率上行超过2个基点，而30 年期国债更是岌岌可危，难掩颓势。 当日，财政部发行了高达830亿元的30年期特别国债，中标利率虽提高至2.15%，但全场认购倍数仅为 2.89倍，市场反应冷淡，机构投资者参与意愿低迷。与年初国债发行时机构争相抢购、认购倍数轻松突 破3倍甚至4倍的盛况相比，如今即便收益率有所提升，市场却反而望而却步，这其中究竟有何玄机？ 究其原因，是A股市场正经历一场前所未有的狂欢。 同一时间，上证指数一路高歌猛进，成功突破3800点，创下近十年来的新高，单日涨幅高达1.09%。中 证转债亦不甘示弱，紧随其后，上涨0.8%。在"逐利"法则下，资金如潮水般涌向股市。 在股市动辄百分之几的日涨幅面前，债市那点微薄的利息显得黯然失色，毫无吸引力。然而，债市向来 以"稳健"著称，为何会遭遇如此程度的连续下跌？ 事实上，从8月初开始，利率债便已进入下行通道，超长期债券基金更是首当其冲，损失惨重。部分基 金单日净值跌幅超过0.5%，投资者们的心态遭受巨大冲击。习惯了每日"收蛋"的债基投资者，如今却面 临"碎蛋"的困境，苦不堪言。 这背后，是经 ...

资金面均衡偏松，资金利率延续回落，DR001在1.41%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 投资的目的是赚钱，市场每天都有无数的赚钱机会，我们只赚属于能力范围内的钱，什么钱都想赚，代表你还没有建立起自己的投资体系，还不知道自己 的能力边界在哪里。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250822— "英伟达不过如此，纳斯达克也就那样"（-股市站上3800点-国债一级发行结果偏弱+MLF净投放3000亿+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展3612亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2380亿元逆回购到期，净投放1232亿元。此外，央行公告：将于2025年8月25日以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.08.22) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化品 | 成交当占 | | | (%) | (bp) | ...

八月，股市迎来了一波狂欢行情，而债券基金则显得黯然失色。 自8月4日起，A股市场持续攀升，沪指更是一举突破了近十年的新高，A股总市值也随之创下历史记录。股市热点不断切换，激发了场外资金对权益类资 产的强烈配置意愿。与此同时，资金面趋紧以及降息预期的减弱，使得债券市场在短时间内遭遇了急剧下跌，长期国债收益率呈现持续上扬态势。 受此影响，众多债券基金在本月的表现并不理想。根据Wind数据，截至8月20日，已有超过600只债券基金的收益为负，其中86只基金的净值亏损超过了 1%。特别是在债市波动最为剧烈的8月18日，有10只债券基金的单日亏损超过了1%，最大亏损幅度更是达到了1.6%。 有投资者在接受采访时表示，近期股市的强劲表现加剧了股债之间的跷跷板效应。不过，多位受访者认为，本轮股市对债市的影响更多是阶段性的，短期 效应显著。尽管债市已经历了较为剧烈的调整，但要实现完全企稳，仍需等待资金面宽松的信号或股市情绪的降温。 债市短期急跌主要受股市走强、降息预期减弱等多方面因素的影响。A股的长期走强以及投资者对高股息稳健行业股票的认可度提升，吸引了大量债基投 资者转战股票市场。国债利息恢复增值税和流动性收紧的担忧也加大 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI生图 股市沸腾，债市沉寂。 2025年以来，A股气势如虹，上证指数年内上涨12.8%，创业板指更是获得了22%的涨幅。与股市的高 歌猛进形成鲜明对比的是，债市遇冷，30年期国债ETF年内下跌逾2%，自6月以来跌幅进一步扩大至4% ——股债"跷跷板效应"再度显现。 那么，股市牛气冲天，债市就真的全无机会了吗？答案显然并不简单。 股市不是核心因素 股债"跷跷板效应"是市场资金风险偏好转换的直接体现。在股市上涨阶段，资金更愿意冒险，流向权益 市场，债市资金被动流出，价格承压；反之，当股市低迷，资金又回流债市寻求避险。 但这种影响通常只是阶段性的。真正决定债市趋势的核心因素，还是经济基本面。债券本质上是固定收 益工具，其未来现金流（票息+本金）的确定性，取决于宏观经济、通胀以及货币政策的变化。 而利率变化预期就是经济基本面的金融化表达，反映了宏观经济增长、通胀水平以及货币政策的变动。 也就是说，市场会根据这种利率预期，来决定债券的买卖行为。 从近期数据来看，经济边际走弱的迹象明显：7月新增贷款自2005年以来首次负增长，社融同比下滑， 消费和投资均 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy, evidenced by record electricity consumption and trading volumes in the stock market, indicating a positive economic outlook and effective policy measures [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The A-share market indices have shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively year-to-date [1]. - In July, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase and doubling compared to ten years ago [1][7]. - China's foreign trade maintained a steady growth trajectory, with total import and export value reaching 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has initiated pilot green foreign debt projects in 16 provinces and cities, encouraging non-financial enterprises to use cross-border financing for green or low-carbon transformation projects [1]. - The government is expected to introduce more incremental policies in the second half of the year to boost the real economy, as the domestic liquidity remains accommodative [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market is currently in a phase characterized by a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10]. - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have led the market gains, while the machinery and equipment sector has lagged [2]. Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - The significant increase in electricity consumption is paralleled by a strong performance in the energy sector, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar power rapidly increasing their share, accounting for nearly a quarter of total consumption [1][7]. - The article notes the impact of external factors, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and trade negotiations, on market dynamics and investor sentiment [3][4].

本报记者 熊 悦 《证券日报》记者通过走访市场了解到，得益于权益市场上行，部分含权类银行理财产品的年化收益率 表现亮眼。受此影响，部分投资者选择将部分资金从纯固收类理财产品转向"固收+权益"等含权类理财 产品。为了适应市场需求，银行也在加大对含权类理财产品的营销力度。 近期权益市场走出强势行情，债市呈现震荡调整，股债"跷跷板"效应愈发明显。 产品认购热 《证券日报》记者近日走访多家国有大行及全国性股份制银行了解到，银行理财产品推荐清单中频频出 现含权类理财产品。与此同时，银行理财子公司也在加大对含权类理财产品的推广力度。 "目前行内主推多款'固收+权益'类产品。这类产品的特点是配置80%以上的债券、存款等固定收益资 产，同时配置少量权益资产。和纯固收类产品相比，此类产品的净值波动较大，但整体收益也会较高。 由于有固定收益资产打底，整体来说还是比较稳健。"某全国性股份制银行的理财客户经理向《证券日 报》记者如是推荐。 另有某全国性股份制银行的理财客户经理告诉《证券日报》记者，近期权益市场持续上行，确实有很多 客户在考虑购买含权类理财产品。 普益标准数据显示，7月份，市场上现金管理类、固定收益类理财产品今年以来平 ...

近期权益市场走出强势行情，债市呈现震荡调整，股债"跷跷板"效应愈发明显。 《证券日报》记者通过走访市场了解到，得益于权益市场上行，部分含权类银行理财产品的年化收益率 表现亮眼。受此影响，部分投资者选择将部分资金从纯固收类理财产品转向"固收+权益"等含权类理财 产品。为了适应市场需求，银行也在加大对含权类理财产品的营销力度。 产品认购热 《证券日报》记者近日走访多家国有大行及全国性股份制银行了解到，银行理财产品推荐清单中频频出 现含权类理财产品。与此同时，银行理财子公司也在加大对含权类理财产品的推广力度。 招银理财于8月20日发布的产品营销信息显示，其推荐的两款R3(中风险)风险等级的混合类理财产品正 在认购期，两款产品均含有一定比例的低波权益资产，以及由股票、量化中性、CTA和黄金构成的策略 组合。中邮理财于8月21日发布的理财产品推荐清单中同样有多只风险等级为R3(中风险)的含权类理财 产品，比如"鸿鑫日开1号红利科技轮动策略"产品的权益部分高比例投向高股息ETF。 "拉长时间线来看，纯固收类理财产品和含权类理财产品的收益差距整体有所拉大。部分投资者出于对 更高收益率及较低波动的追求，选择赎回部分纯固收类理 ...

多家机构分析指出，当前债市调整源于多重因素叠加：短期货币政策维持不降息基调主导市场情绪，税 期来临引发资金面扰动，权益市场回暖推升风险偏好，叠加纯债基金赎回压力，共同构成债市短期承压 的环境。 多因素交织致债市连续调整 8月20日收盘，上证指数上涨1.04%，报3766.21，创10年来新高。然而，股债跷跷板效应尽显，债市表 现震荡。 8月以来，债市整体表现偏弱。从2025年8月11日—17日一周情况看，债市走弱，长债收益率大幅上行。 鑫元基金方面指出，当前债市整体处于"强风偏、弱现实"之中。近期宏观经济数据呈现阶段性调整态 势，但债市对权益和商品市场风险偏好更为敏感，对基本面走弱则有"脱敏"，导致债市出现连续调整。 鑫元基金方面认为，当前债市属于调整而非反转，短期或仍受风险偏好的扰动，中长期可以关注超跌带 来的投资机会。 资金面的扰动进一步加剧了债市的波动。东方金诚方面亦分析指出，从资金面来看，日前央行公布的二 季度货币政策执行报告强调"落实落细适度宽松的货币政策"，但同时提及"防空转"，意味着央行将适度 呵护流动性，预计短期内资金面将维持均衡态势，对短债形成支撑。从基本面来看，近期经济数据虽显 疲软，但市 ...

八月股市狂欢，债基黯然失色。 自8月4日以来，A股一路向上，沪指创下近十年新高，A股总市值也创下历史新高。由于股市热点轮番上演，场外资金对权益资产配置热情高涨，叠加资 金面紧张、降息预期削弱等因素，债市出现短期急跌，长期国债收益率一路上行。 受此影响，一些债基在本月亏掉了年内赚取的全部收益。Wind数据显示，截至8月20日，本月超600只债基收益告负，其中，有86只债基净值亏损超1%。 而在债市波动最激烈的8月18日，有10只债基单日亏损超1%，最高亏损达1.6%。 受访者向《国际金融报》记者表示，短期股市的强势加剧了股债跷跷板效应，但本轮股市对债市的影响更多是阶段性的扰动，短期影响较为明显。债市最 剧烈的调整或已结束，但要完全企稳需要等待资金面宽松信号或股市情绪降温。 单日最多亏1.6% 你的债基最近还好吗？ "我持有的债基最近亏了不少。"一位投资者向《国际金融报》记者感慨道，他买了多只债基，没想到最近债市跌得这么厉害。 债市近期与股市呈现出显著的"负相关性"。自8月13日以来，A股交投火热，连续7个交易日成交额突破2万亿元，沪指近期冲上3700点后，仍在不断创下 新高。与此同时，自8月7日以来，30年期国 ...