2018年初至今，10年期国债到期收益率从接近4.0%一路震荡下行至1.60%附近，下行幅度近240个BP。尽管期 间也出现过2020年5-7月和2022年11-12月这样的调整，但整体并未改变债券牛市格局。 下半年以来，A股持续走高，而持续数年牛市的债券市场却风云突变，大幅调整。30年期国债期货主力合约 下半年以来下跌逾4%。股债跷跷板效应显现。 最近几个月，A股市场一路高歌猛进，与之相伴的是债券市场的持续调整。上周，银行间主要利率债收益率 上行，10年期国债收益率一度站上1.8%。 在债券市场上，债券收益率与债券价格成反比：当收益率走低时，债券价格上升，债市走牛。债券价格等于 未来现金流的现值总和，收益率上升会导致现值下降。 漫画：王建明 深圳商报记者 陈燕青 外资依然看好中国资产。国际金融协会最新发布的报告显示，8月份外国投资者向新兴市场股票和债券投资组 合投入近450亿美元，创下近一年来的最高规模。具体而言，8月中国债券和股票上个月合计净流入390亿美 元，中国以外新兴市场债券吸引了132亿美元的资金流入。 外资机构对中国债券市场的配置策略正呈现明显的中长期特征。央行数据显示，截至上半年末，境外机构在 ...

其一，宽松的资金面为债市营造良好的金融环境。 近期，债市出现较大波动，引发市场讨论。数据显示，8月1日至9月12日，中证全债指数（净价）下跌 1.11%。其中，备受市场关注的10年期国债收益率重返1.8%上方。 截至7月末，债券市场托管余额超过190万亿元。商业银行、保险机构、公募基金等金融机构是债市的主 要投资者，同时，众多个人投资者通过持有各类资管产品间接参与债市投资。此番债市波动难免引发部 分投资者的担忧。 应如何看待近期债市波动？笔者认为，债券市场天然具有波动属性，短期回调属于正常市场现象。从中 长期视角看，支撑债市向好的根本逻辑未变，多重因素共振有望推动债市健康、平稳运行。 近期债市的调整，受到"股债跷跷板"效应、债市前期上涨较快等多重因素共同影响。但从中长期来 看，"买方力量"将持续推动债市平稳运行。从国际经验看，市场利率趋势一旦形成，短期内难以改变。 在当前利率下行的背景下，居民对银行理财、公募基金、保险等资管产品的配置需求持续增长，推动金 融机构加大对债券的配置力度。数据显示，截至今年上半年末，险资、银行理财资金对债券的配置比例 均较年初有所提升。长期来看，险企、商业银行、银行理财子公司、公募 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a decline since September, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.8% and the 30-year yield exceeding 2.1%, marking new lows in the current bond market cycle [1] - The recent regulatory changes regarding redemption fees for mutual funds have triggered a wave of redemptions, particularly affecting pure bond funds, which are primarily used by institutional investors for diversification and liquidity management [2] - The increase in redemption fees, particularly for holdings less than 7 days, is expected to significantly reduce the attractiveness of bond funds for institutions, leading to a redemption trend [2] Group 2 - The potential for further declines in the bond market appears limited, with the configuration value gradually returning as the macroeconomic fundamentals in China do not support a prolonged bear market [3] - Institutional behavior indicates that most funds redeemed from bond funds will eventually flow back into the bond market, suggesting that the impact of redemptions is more about timing rather than a fundamental shift [3] - The current yield on new 10-year government bonds is comparable to the dividend yield of the A-share market, indicating that the configuration value of bonds is becoming more apparent [3]

Core View - Today, the trends of Treasury bond futures were divergent. The 2-year Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined slightly, while the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose. Currently, Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the medium and long term, there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, due to the low necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is not strong. The inflation data in August remained weak. Subsequently, the policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand, promoting a moderate recovery of inflation. It is expected that fiscal policy will be intensified in the fourth quarter, thus exerting supply-side pressure on Treasury bonds. The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning off bond-buying funds and suppressing the demand side of Treasury bonds, showing the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo low-level oscillatory consolidation in the short term [2] Industry News and Related Charts - On September 12, the People's Bank of China announced that it carried out 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 188.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 41.7 billion yuan [4]

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何看待最近债券市场不断下跌的情况 ？ A：9月份以来，债券市场在经过8月末的平稳运行后再度拐头下跌，9月10日10年国债活跃券收益 率上破1.8%，30年国债活跃券收益率上破2.1%，30年期国债期货主力合约价格跌破115，价格均 创下本轮债市行情新低。 本材料版权属于重阳投资，未经重阳投资授权，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式转发、转载、翻版、复 制、刊登、发表、修改、仿制或引用本材料内容。 如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢迎 扫码 咨询。 公众号改变了推送规则， 我们的文章可能会迷失在茫茫的信息流中， 你的一个 分享、点赞、"在看" ， 能让我们之间的距离更近一步， 为了更好地相遇， 星标置顶 也是极好的。 重阳投资，始终和你在一起。 股债跷跷板效应外，赎回费新规引发基金赎回潮是本轮行情的触发剂。 上周五晚，证监会发布 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》，其中规定除ETF、存单和货币基金 等可豁免基金外，应提高基金赎回费率，持有期小于7天则赎回费率不低于1.5%，7-30日不低于 1%，30日-6个月不低于0.5%，超出市场预期。目前纯债基金更多是作为机构投资者分散化投资债 ...

那么这一逻辑是否还会继续呢？从8月份出台的通胀数据看，似乎并不明显。8月CPI再次进入负值区 间，而且下跌幅度较大，说明经济内部的有效需求仍然较为疲弱，物价形势仍然较为严峻。 8月CPI环比涨幅为0，低于历史同期均值0.3%；同比由平转为下降0.4%。低于一致预期-0.2%，创近6个 月以来新低；环比持平，弱于季节规律，近10年同期均值为0.3%。CPI同比再度转负，主要受食品价格 弱势影响，当然基数上升也是拖累，最大的拖累项是食品，同比延续回落2.7个百分点至-4.3%，拖累 CPI同比0.8个百分点。 不过值得注意的是8月核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，已连续6个月回升，创近18个月新高。其中服务价格环比 持平，核心消费品价格表现仍偏强，汽车价格持平，家用器具价格环比上涨1.1%。主要原因认为归于 国家的补贴政策，以旧换新的消费刺激政策。 8月PPI同比-2.9%，高于前值-3.6%，持平一致预期；环比由跌转平，结束了连续8个月的下行，持平季 节性均值（近10年同期环比均值为-0.01%）。主要原因是"反内卷"导致煤炭、黑色、玻璃等行业价格上 涨，如PPI煤炭开采、煤炭加工、黑色采选、黑色冶炼、玻璃制造价格环 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

2025年09月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.410 | 102.320 | 105.590 | 105.485 | 107.580 | 107.280 | 114.74 | 114.39 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.350 | 102.290 | 105.425 | 105.350 | 107.490 | 107.205 | 114.76 | 114.38 | | | 涨跌 | 0.060 | 0.030 | 0.165 | 0.135 | 0.090 | 0.075 | -0.020 | 0. ...

首席点 评 ： 股指独领风骚，商品蓄势待发 开展北京城市副中心、苏南重点城市、杭甬温、合肥都市圈等10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。中国商务部：密 切关注墨方提税动向，中方将根据实际情况采取必要措施。美国通胀基本符合预期，8月核心CPI同比增3.1%，环比 增0.3%，持平华尔街预期和7月；美上周首申失业金人数不降反增至26.3万，创近四年新高。欧洲央行连续两次会议 按兵不动，认为通胀压力得到控制；行长拉加德放鹰：欧元区降通胀过程现已结束，贸易不确定性已明显减弱。 重点品种：股指、原油、玻璃纯碱 股指 ： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指全线反弹，通信板块领涨，市场成交额2.46万亿元。资金方面，9月10 日融资余额增加57.74亿元至23092.69亿元。2025年我们认为国内流动性延续宽松，同时处于政策窗口期，四季度为 提振实体经济可能会出台更多的增量政策，同时外部风险逐步缓和，美联储9月降息概率增加进一步提升人民币资产 吸引力。当前市场处于"政策底+资金底+估值底"共振期，但需适应板块轮动加速与结构分化。科技成长成分居多的 中证500和中证1000指数更偏进攻，波动较大，但可能可以带来更高的回报，而红利 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent interest rate cuts by state-owned banks have prompted many small and medium-sized banks to follow suit, particularly focusing on three and five-year fixed deposit rates, which have generally fallen below 2% with a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points [2][3][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - Several village banks in regions such as Zhejiang, Jilin, and Guangdong have announced reductions in deposit rates, with declines of 10 to 20 basis points [3] - For instance, Zhejiang Shengzhou Ruifeng Village Bank has lowered its one and two-year fixed deposit rates by 20 basis points to 1.15%, while three and five-year rates have decreased by 10 basis points to 1.3% [3] - Jilin Longtan Huayi Village Bank and Changyi Yuyin Village Bank have also reduced their three and five-year fixed deposit rates by 20 basis points, bringing them down to 1.75% and 1.7% respectively [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The stock market's recent performance has led some investors to shift their focus from high-interest deposits to equities, questioning the effectiveness of high-yield large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) as a tool for attracting deposits [2][8] - High Zhengyang, a researcher, noted that while the stock market's appeal is growing, low-risk investors still prefer deposits as a key asset allocation choice, indicating that high-yield large-denomination CDs may still play a positive role in attracting deposits [2][9] Group 3: Large-Denomination CDs - In response to the declining interest rates, several banks have introduced large-denomination CDs with annual rates exceeding 2%, such as Baixin Bank's 2.1% two-year CD and Su Bank's 2.2% three-year CD [6] - The attractiveness of these large-denomination CDs has diminished due to the stock market's performance, with some depositors expressing a preference for investing in stocks instead [8][9] - Despite the challenges, large-denomination CDs are still being consumed relatively quickly, particularly among clients looking for stable returns [9] Group 4: Long-term Strategies - Experts suggest that while high-yield large-denomination CDs can temporarily alleviate deposit pressure, banks should not overly rely on them and should focus on enhancing customer loyalty through differentiated services [10] - The need for banks to reduce their dependence on high-interest deposits and improve service capabilities is emphasized for sustainable growth [10]