贸易保护主义

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全球关税:起源、演进历程及对财政的贡献
Yuekai Securities· 2025-08-10 10:41
Tax Origin and Characteristics - Tariffs originated as a form of transit tax, primarily for controlling the movement of goods and maintaining border security[2] - Historically, tariffs were not significant in fiscal systems until the rise of international trade in the 16th century[2] Evolution of Tariff Functions - The function of tariffs has evolved from revenue collection to industry protection and economic regulation, influenced by economic development and prevailing economic ideologies[3] - Five distinct phases of tariff evolution are identified, with the latest phase (2018-present) marked by a resurgence of protectionism under the Trump administration[4][24] Global Economic Dependence on Tariffs - Countries are categorized based on their reliance on tariff revenue: low dependence (below 3%), medium dependence (3%-5%), and high dependence (above 5%)[5][25] - Developed economies like the US, Japan, and the UK have low tariff revenue reliance, with figures such as 1.2% for the US and 0.5% for Japan in 2022[5][28] Medium Dependence Economies - Countries like India and Vietnam show medium dependence on tariffs, with tariff revenue constituting 4.1% and 3.1% of national fiscal income respectively in 2022[6][31] High Dependence Economies - The Philippines exemplifies high dependence on tariffs, with 18.1% of its national fiscal income derived from tariffs in 2022, significantly higher than other nations[6][33] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in global trade policies and shifts in international economic and political landscapes[7]
印度食品走向世界?
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-09 21:56
Group 1 - Indian Prime Minister Modi expressed a vision for every household globally to have Indian food products on their tables, highlighting the government's push for food exports as a key strategy for economic growth [1][2] - The Indian government aims to boost food exports to over $51.9 billion by 2024, with significant investments in food processing and the establishment of around 200 food parks, targeting to become one of the top five food exporters by 2030 [1][2] - The strategy is seen as a way to enhance agricultural and manufacturing sectors, expand international trade, and elevate India's cultural influence globally [2] Group 2 - India's food export ambitions face external threats, particularly from U.S. sanctions against Russia, which could impact India's energy imports and economic stability [4][5] - Ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. may require India to make concessions in sensitive areas like agriculture and dairy, potentially affecting its food export strategy [5] - Internally, the Indian food industry is struggling with the need for a comprehensive industrial chain to support food exports, as the government's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme has not yielded the expected results [6][7] Group 3 - The PLI scheme, aimed at attracting foreign investment and enhancing manufacturing, has seen a decline in manufacturing's share of GDP, raising concerns about its future [7] - The Indian government has adopted protectionist measures in response to industry challenges, which may hinder the import of food products from other countries, reflecting a lack of self-critique and proactive solutions [7][8] - Addressing fundamental issues such as food safety is crucial for India's goal of becoming a global food exporter, suggesting a need for a more focused approach rather than a broad strategy [8]
美关税政策对拉美地区企业影响有限但潜在风险持续
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-09 17:40
彭博社8月7日报道,特朗普新关税政策将以直接或间接方式影响拉美不同国家,尽管 对地区企业影响有限,但潜在风险或长期存在。就国家而言,巴西因对前总统博索纳 罗进行政治审判被加征50%高关税。但瑞银认为,由于巴西为相对封闭经济体,其外贸 收入占GDP总值约28%,所受负面影响或有限。2024年,巴对美产品出口400亿美元, 占该国对外出口总额16%,GDP2%。此外,50%关税并未涉及民用飞机、乘用车、橙 汁、铁矿、煤炭和纤维素等巴对美主要出口产品。从汇市表现看,尽管短期内雷亚尔 贬值增加,但年底前有望重新走强。与巴西不同,尽管当前墨西哥在特朗普新关税政 策中仍享有全球低税率待遇,但该国更多面临着来自《美墨加协定》重新审定带来的 诸多不确定性。墨高达85%的产品出口指向美国,该协定成为墨国家经济重要支柱。瑞 银警告称,"漫长的贸易谈判或政治极化将扰乱北美地区投资和一体化发展前景。"智 利、秘鲁和哥伦比亚等所受关税直接影响有限,由于资源富集,这些国家或将市场更 多转向中国,对美形成替代。中美洲和加勒比地区因旅游服务业优势突出,在应对货 物贸易冲击时能够发挥一定缓冲作用。但彭博行业研究认为,"美国经济最终将放缓, 通 ...
特朗普终于如愿以偿?全球关税正式落地,美国国内一片哀嚎!中国这次也没能置身事外?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 13:43
Core Points - The Trump administration's new tariff policy, effective from August 7, 2025, imposes "reciprocal tariffs" on over 60 countries, significantly disrupting global trade [1][3] - Tariff rates range from 10% to 41%, with specific high rates for countries like Syria and Myanmar, while traditional allies like Canada and Switzerland face tariffs between 35% and 39% [3] - The policy aims to protect U.S. industries and reduce the trade deficit, targeting key sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [3][6] Impact on the U.S. Economy - The new tariffs are projected to increase household expenses by $2,100 to $3,800 annually, disproportionately affecting low-income families [5] - Companies like General Motors and Whirlpool have announced price hikes due to rising raw material costs, with small businesses facing profit reductions of 12% to 15% [5] - The core PCE price index rose by 4.2% year-on-year, raising concerns about potential inflation and the risk of "stagflation" [5] Reactions from Allies and Emerging Markets - Canada and Mexico are directly impacted, with Canada threatening "reciprocal countermeasures" against the tariffs [5] - The EU has signed a temporary agreement but still faces higher tariffs than the WTO's most-favored-nation treatment, leading to accusations of "economic bullying" [5] - Emerging markets are accelerating de-dollarization efforts, with countries like Brazil and India exploring alternative payment mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. [5][9] China's Response and Challenges - Despite appearing to avoid the worst of the tariffs, China faces challenges, including increased costs for exports and a decline in trade volume with the U.S. [6][8] - Chinese companies are adapting by expanding overseas operations and optimizing supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts [8] - Long-term risks remain, as the U.S. continues to push for tariffs on critical sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which could affect China's high-end manufacturing [8][10] Global Trade Dynamics - The new tariff policy signifies a shift from rule-based trade to power-based trade, undermining the WTO's dispute resolution mechanisms [9] - The U.S. may see short-term gains in revenue and job creation, but the long-term consequences include weakened international influence and increased tensions with allies [9][10] - The global trade landscape is evolving, with new trade agreements increasingly featuring exclusive tariff clauses, signaling a decline in multilateralism [9]
日本汽车业委曲难求全
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-08 23:33
近日,美国总统特朗普宣布与日本达成最新贸易协议,对进口的日本汽车征收15%的关税。这一税率虽 然低于之前威胁的25%,但远高于原先的2.5%和日本所希望的5%。 面对国内的质疑,日本官员辩称:"25%关税是'经济死刑',15%是'可控的伤痛'。" 这一无奈辩白的背后,折射出日本车企受制于人、委曲求全的命运。由于日本汽车市场规模较小,长期 以来一直将北美地区视为主要目标市场,因此只能在美国贸易保护主义的镣铐下起舞。 日本汽车产业的迅速发展始于第二次世界大战后。当时,日本已通过修理进口美欧汽车、限制整车进 口、装配进口汽车零部件和设备等政策,建立起汽车产业初步发展路径。经过一段时间摸索后,日本确 定以小轿车产业作为其工业发展的龙头,并从资金、设备、原材料和税收等方面给予优惠政策。 与此同时,两次地缘政治冲突给日本车企带来了商机。20世纪50年代,朝鲜战争爆发,彼时弱小艰难的 日本汽车企业通过承接美军订单迅速发展起来。20世纪60年代末,日本轿车产量跃居世界第三位,仅次 于美国和德国。这一时期美国对日本汽车的关税税率还不到10%。 1973年,第一次石油危机爆发,省油耐用的日本轿车在美国市场大受欢迎,市场份额不断提 ...
忍无可忍!莫迪终于翻脸了,不仅供出美国,还主动宣布访华
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 13:22
Group 1 - The U.S. plans to significantly increase import tariffs on Indian products due to India's substantial purchases of Russian oil, which has raised concerns about India's economic security [1][3] - The Indian textile industry, a crucial export sector, faces severe challenges as U.S. tariffs increase costs, leading to reduced orders from American importers and potential job losses for many workers [3] - The Indian pharmaceutical sector, a major global supplier of generic drugs, is also adversely affected as the tariffs diminish price competitiveness in the U.S. market, prompting U.S. healthcare providers to seek alternative sources [3] Group 2 - In response to U.S. pressure, the Indian government is encouraging citizens to buy local products to mitigate the economic impact of global uncertainties, emphasizing India's potential to become the world's third-largest economy [4] - India has criticized the U.S. for its double standards regarding the purchase of Russian oil, highlighting that other countries engaging in similar trade have not faced similar tariff sanctions [4] - Brazil aims to double its trade with India from the current $12 billion, seeking to diversify its trade partnerships and enhance cooperation in sectors like aviation, which could benefit both economies [6] Group 3 - Recent developments indicate a warming trend in China-India relations, with both countries recognizing the importance of their markets and striving for stable trade despite existing tensions [8] - High-level interactions between Indian and Chinese officials, including participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings, reflect India's commitment to strengthening ties with China [8] - The evolving dynamics between India, the U.S., and Brazil, along with adjustments in India-China relations, are likely to influence the political and economic landscape in South Asia and beyond [8]
美欧贸易协议使德国汽车工业获短暂喘息,15%关税阵痛难解
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 07:28
当地时间8月7日,德国汽车工业协会(VDA)发布声明称,当前美国对欧洲汽车27.5%的行业关税"仍 然有效",呼吁欧盟与美国之间达成的贸易协议需要立即实施,以为汽车行业带来实质性缓解。 目前,欧盟仍需等待美国总统特朗普签署新行政命令,相关协议内容才能生效。 不过,美欧贸易紧张局势的"至暗时刻"可能已经过去。德国ifo经济研究所最新数据显示,7月汽车行业 商业气候指数显著回升,虽然仍处于负值区间,但已从-31.6上升至-23.8,行业商业预期指数也从-27.3 改善至-19.3。 牛津经济研究院助理经济学家巴克斯特(Samuel Bakst)对第一财经记者表示,协议的确降低了欧盟和 美国之间贸易战重新升级的下行风险,"但目前仍在等待上月达成的贸易协议更多实施细则的公布。已 披露的有限细节持续加剧经济不确定性,我们预计这种不确定性将持续影响市场直至年底。" 特朗普政府自4月开始实施25%的汽车关税,叠加6月美国将钢铁和铝进口关税从25%提高至50%的政策 影响,整个汽车行业面临前所未有的压力。 在关税冲击下,多家欧洲汽车巨头近期纷纷下调财务预期。7月,大众汽车公司披露,美国关税已导致 其上半年利润减少约15亿美元 ...
石破茂、莫迪,强硬回应特朗普
第一财经· 2025-08-08 02:43
2025.08. 08 本文字数:1403,阅读时长大约2分钟 据新华社,美国政府此前公布的经过调整的"对等关税"于7日生效。美数十个贸易伙伴将被征收10%至41%不等的关税,其中日本的税率为15%。美 国总统特朗普6日签署行政令,以印度"以直接或间接方式进口俄罗斯石油"为由,对印度输美产品征收额外的25%关税。 面对美国的关税大棒,日本首相石破茂表示,美方没有落实此前达成的协议内容并"强烈要求美方立即采取措施修正总统行政令";印度总理莫迪表 示,尽管不答应美方条件会付出代价,印度不会因此牺牲国内产业利益。 报道说,美方此前在谈判中承诺,日本在被加征"对等关税"时可获得"税收减轻",即日本输美商品税率已达15%以上的商品不再加征"对等关税",税 率低于15%的商品税率提高至15%。 石破茂表示,在这一点上"日美之间不存在分歧",目前正在美国访问的经济再生大臣赤泽亮正已重新确认了协议内容。 日方认为,由于美国在此前发布的官方公告中未提及对日本的关税细则,导致部分日本商品可能被征收更高关税。 莫迪:不会牺牲国内利益 莫迪7日在新德里表示,尽管不答应美方条件会付出代价,但印度不会因此牺牲国内农业、乳业和渔业利益,因 ...
特朗普关税大棒正式落地,全球经济迎来“压力测试”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-07 07:45
Group 1 - The new tariff system under President Trump's administration has raised the average tariff rate in the U.S. to 15.2%, significantly higher than last year's 2.3%, marking the highest level since World War II [2] - Key trading partners such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea have negotiated a 15% "preferential tariff rate" to avoid a 25% tax on critical exports like automobiles, while Switzerland and India face higher tariffs [2] - The U.S. is still negotiating tariff increases with major trading partners Mexico, Canada, and China, and Trump has pledged to impose new tariffs on key industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [2] Group 2 - Despite low unemployment rates, there are signs of economic challenges ahead, with July employment data being revised down significantly and economic growth slowing in the first half of the year [3] - Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have raised alarms about potential declines in the S&P 500 index amid rising inflation and slowing consumer spending [3] - Recent polls indicate that a majority of voters oppose Trump's tariff policies and express dissatisfaction with his economic management, raising questions about the sustainability of his trade plans [3] Group 3 - Experts have criticized the legal foundation of Trump's tariff measures, suggesting that the government is attempting to create a false narrative that the "tariff cycle is ending" [4] - Trump has claimed that tariff revenues could lead to tax refunds for some Americans, with customs data showing record tariff revenues of $113 billion for the nine months ending in June [4] - There is skepticism regarding the goal of reviving domestic manufacturing, as increased tariff revenues may not align with job growth, since reduced imports would naturally lead to lower tariff income [4]
美国加征关税重创德国汽车业
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-06 22:05
Core Viewpoint - The aggressive tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration since 2025 has significantly impacted the global automotive industry, particularly German manufacturers, despite a recent trade agreement between the US and EU that reduced tariffs to 15% [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The US and EU reached a trade agreement on July 27, 2023, lowering most EU goods' tariffs to 15% and including commitments for the EU to purchase $750 billion in US energy products by 2028 [2]. - The agreement aims to avoid a full-scale trade war, but the 15% tariff is still seen as a substantial negative impact on Germany's export-oriented economy [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Impact on German Automakers - The US tariffs have severely affected the financial health of major German automakers, with estimates suggesting a cash flow reduction of over $10 billion for the three largest companies (Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW) in 2023 [3]. - Specific projections indicate that Mercedes-Benz's cash flow may drop from $11 billion to approximately $3 billion, Volkswagen's cash flow could fall to $3.8 billion, and BMW's cash flow is expected to decrease to $5 billion [3]. Group 3: Cost Pressures and Market Competitiveness - The tariffs have increased the costs of exporting vehicles and components to the US, further squeezing profit margins for German automakers [4]. - The price increase due to tariffs has led to a decline in sales of German vehicles in the US market, with stock prices of major automakers dropping between 13% and 25% following the announcement of the tariffs [4][5]. Group 4: Broader Industry Challenges - The German automotive industry is also grappling with rising raw material prices, an energy crisis, and the high costs associated with transitioning to electric vehicles, which are compounded by the US tariffs [4][6]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have disrupted supply chains, further complicating the operational landscape for German automakers [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - While the trade agreement provides some relief, the persistent 15% tariff continues to exert pressure on profits, sales, and supply chains, necessitating strategic adjustments and innovation from German automakers to regain competitiveness [7]. - There are concerns that the tariffs may lead to job losses in Europe, with estimates suggesting that up to 70,000 jobs could be at risk as companies consider relocating production to the US to avoid tariffs [5][6].