根据白宫9月29日发布的总统公告，特朗普依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款，认定进口木材及其衍 生产品"对国家安全构成威胁"，并据此调整关税结构。该政策将于2025年10月14日生效，并对部分贸易 伙伴设有关税上限。 白宫政策说明文件显示，美国将对进口软木征收10%的关税；对部分软垫家具征收25%关税，2026年1 月1日起提高至30%；对橱柜和盥洗台征收25%关税，2026年1月1日起上调至50%。白宫称，与美国进行 谈判的贸易伙伴或可寻求关税替代方案。英国、欧盟和日本将享受更优惠待遇，以反映其与美国的贸易 协议条款。其中，从英国进口的涉案木材关税将不超过10%；从欧盟和日本进口的木材，第232条款关 税与最惠国关税合计不超过15%。 白宫表示，该公告是在美国商务部完成232调查后发布的，调查发现，当前木制品进口的数量与情况"可 能损害国家安全"。白宫表示，特朗普认为，过度依赖外国木制品将危及美国国防能力、建筑业和经济 稳定。尽管美国2024年软木产能可满足国内消费的95%，但自2016年以来，美国一直是木材净进口国。 加征关税旨在打击"扭曲市场的外国补贴和掠夺性行为"，推动国内生产，实现自给自足，降 ...

受美国政府潜在关门危机发酵及美元汇率持续走软的双重推动，国际黄金市场上涨动能始终强劲。昨日盘，现货黄金价格一路攀升，最高触及 3833.94 美元 / 盎司，再度刷新历史峰值，最终收报 3833.71 美元 / 盎司，单日涨幅达 1.89%；现货白银同步大幅走强，收盘报 46.908 美元 / 盎司，涨幅 1.93%，贵金属板 块整体表现亮眼。 股市方面，美股三大股指小幅收涨，延续近期震荡上行节奏。截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 68.78 点，涨幅 0.15%，报 46316.07 点；标普 500 指数上 涨 17.51 点，涨幅 0.26%，报 6661.21 点；纳斯达克综合指数表现相对强势，上涨 107.09 点，涨幅 0.48%，报 22591.15 点，科技板块贡献主要涨幅。 欧股主要股指则呈现 "多数上涨、少数调整" 的格局。其中，德国 DAX30 指数上涨 0.07%，收报 23750.76 点；英国富时 100 指数上涨 0.14%，收报 9297.85 点；法国 CAC40 指数上涨 0.13%，收报 7880.87 点；欧洲斯托克 50 指数上涨 0.14%，收报 5507.45 点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent zero-order phenomenon of U.S. soybean exports to China highlights a significant trade crisis stemming from the U.S. government's unilateral imposition of fentanyl tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to China's retaliatory 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, which has resulted in a loss of price competitiveness for U.S. soybeans in the Chinese market [1][5] Group 1: Trade Impact - Since May, China, the largest customer for U.S. soybeans, has not placed any orders, causing unprecedented panic among U.S. soybean farmers [1] - The crisis has led to a shift in China's imports towards South American countries like Brazil and Argentina, exacerbating the situation for U.S. farmers [1] - Even if a trade agreement is reached immediately, it will not affect the current harvest season, indicating a significant delay in recovery for U.S. soybean producers [1][7] Group 2: Political and Economic Repercussions - The trade conflict could potentially destabilize traditional Republican strongholds in agricultural states like Minnesota and Illinois ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [7] - Agricultural lobbying groups that previously supported the Trump administration are now criticizing its trade policies for causing the current crisis [7] - The entire soybean supply chain, from growers to traders, is experiencing economic repercussions due to the ongoing trade tensions [7] Group 3: Government Response and Future Outlook - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has stated that government shutdowns will not affect tariff collection, indicating a lack of recognition of the trade policy's failures [8] - The current situation resembles a test of endurance, with China proposing a clear path to resolution while the U.S. maintains its protectionist stance, which could have broader implications for global trade dynamics [8]

Group 1 - President Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S., citing the loss of the American film industry to foreign competition [1] - This move indicates a potential extension of protectionist policies to the cultural sector, creating uncertainty for film companies that rely on international box office revenue and cross-border co-productions [1] - Trump's previous statements suggest he views foreign films as a "national security threat," further complicating the landscape for U.S. film producers [1] Group 2 - Legal and trade analysts question the basis for imposing tariffs on films, as they are considered intellectual property and part of global service trade, where the U.S. typically has a surplus [2] - The increasing prevalence of co-productions with foreign film companies raises concerns about how these films would be classified under the proposed tariff [2] - Major media companies like Disney, Sony, and Warner Bros. have seen their stock prices decline in response to the tariff news, indicating market sensitivity to such policy changes [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced plans to impose high tariffs on countries that do not produce furniture in the United States, aiming to revive the furniture industry in North Carolina [1] Industry Summary - The furniture business in North Carolina has been significantly impacted by international competition, leading to a decline in local production [1] - The proposed tariffs are intended to protect domestic manufacturers and encourage local production, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape of the furniture industry [1]

中国商务部9月25日发布公告，决定自当天起对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投资壁垒调查。 根据公告，本案的被调查措施为：墨西哥政府拟对中国等非自贸伙伴的产品提高进口关税税率的相关措施。此外，墨西哥近年来采取的 其他涉及中国的贸易投资限制措施也在本次调查范围内。 商务部新闻发言人表示，中方认为，在当前美方滥施关税的背景下，各国应共同反对各种形式的单边主义和保护主义，绝不能因为他人 胁迫而牺牲第三方利益。墨方单边加税举动一旦落地，即便是在世贸框架内，也会损害包括中国在内的相关贸易伙伴的利益，还会严重 影响墨营商环境的确定性，降低企业对墨投资的信心，中方对此坚决反对。 墨西哥政府9月10日向国会提交关税提案，拟对来自中国及其他与墨方没有自由贸易协定的国家的进口商品加征最高达50%的关税，其中 既包括汽车及零部件、钢铁、纺织品等大宗商品，也包括日用品、鞋履服饰、玩具、家电等消费品。 当前，该关税提案仍处于审议阶段，需要议院批准才能生效。如果获批，相关措施预计最早于2026年12月31日前全面生效，但具体以何 种形式落地暂无定数。对中国出海企业来说，这一举措引发广泛讨论和担忧。中国商务部此前回应称，这么做将降低中国企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the U.S. government regarding a new round of tariffs, particularly targeting imports from China and the EU, while reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles, highlights a selective enforcement strategy that intertwines economic measures with political considerations [1][5][21]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Details - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 100% on various imported goods, including heavy trucks, home goods, and pharmaceuticals [1]. - Key targets for these tariffs include electric vehicles, heavy machinery, and electronic components from China, with tax rates doubling or even exceeding previous levels [3]. - The tariff on Japanese automobiles has been reduced from 25% to 15%, reflecting political motivations rather than economic logic [5]. Group 2: Global Trade Reactions - The new tariff measures have escalated tensions in global trade, prompting countries to reassess their economic relationships with the U.S. [3]. - China has responded with countermeasures, increasing import tariffs on U.S. goods and implementing restrictions on key resource exports [10]. - The EU has initiated a counter-response against U.S. products worth billions of euros and resumed negotiations on liquefied natural gas procurement [12]. Group 3: Political Implications - The selective nature of the tariff policy has drawn criticism domestically and internationally, with concerns that it undermines the global competitiveness of U.S. companies [7]. - The tariffs are seen as a political strategy aimed at swing states in the Midwest, where manufacturing jobs are concentrated [7]. - Japan's government has distanced itself from U.S. policies, emphasizing the importance of avoiding trade friction due to its reliance on Asian supply chains [16]. Group 4: Broader Economic Trends - The current trade tensions reflect a shift in global economic dynamics, with non-U.S. economies seeking to strengthen cooperation and reduce dependence on the U.S. market [18][21]. - Countries are exploring new trade networks outside of U.S. influence, with China and the EU moving towards trade agreements with Southeast Asia, South America, and India [17]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining traction, as countries pursue mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar for trade [19].

Core Viewpoint - China has taken a firm stance against Mexico's proposed tariffs on Chinese products, indicating that it will not tolerate actions that harm its economic interests, especially when influenced by external pressures from the United States [1][3][5]. Trade Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has initiated an investigation into trade barriers against Mexico and launched an anti-dumping investigation on pecans imported from Mexico, directly responding to Mexico's tariff increases on Chinese goods [1][7]. - Mexico's proposed tariffs, which could reach up to 50% on Chinese automobiles, are seen as an attempt to align with U.S. interests rather than addressing its own economic needs [3][9]. Economic Impact - The Chinese government has emphasized that Mexico's actions could severely damage the trade and investment interests of Chinese enterprises, potentially undermining Mexico's own business environment and foreign investment confidence [5][7]. - The share of Mexican pecans in China's total pecan imports is relatively small, accounting for only about 10%, yet the investigation signals a broader warning against aligning with U.S. pressures [7][9]. Diplomatic Responses - In response to China's actions, the Mexican president has attempted to clarify that the tariffs are not intended to provoke conflict with other nations and are part of a domestic plan discussed prior to the U.S. elections [9][11]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's announcement serves as a warning to Mexico, indicating that there is a possibility for policy adjustments within a nine-month investigation period [11][13]. Future Considerations - The ongoing trade relationship between China and Mexico has been growing, but Mexico's decisions in the face of external pressures could significantly impact future trade volumes and foreign investment [13][15]. - If Mexico sacrifices its economic interests to secure a trade agreement with the U.S., it may find itself in a precarious position if U.S. tariffs are reintroduced [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles in China, with the net greenhouse gas emissions in the entire economic scope decreasing by 7%-10% from the peak, non-fossil energy consumption accounting for over 30% of the total energy consumption, and other goals to be achieved [1][109][118]. - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and price wars are gradually stopped. Overseas markets face trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, so attention should be paid to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. The market share of independent brands continues to expand [3][120]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies are presented in charts. For example, BYD's one - week price decline was 1.65%, while Seres' was 9.48% [12][15]. 3.2产业链数据跟踪 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: Data on China's new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, domestic sales, exports, and sales of EV and PHV are presented in charts [16][21][23]. - **Inventory Changes**: Charts show the monthly new additions to new energy passenger vehicle channel inventory and manufacturer inventory [24][25]. - **Delivery Volumes of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: Monthly delivery volumes of enterprises such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, NIO, etc., are presented in charts [27][28][32]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: From January to July, global new energy vehicle sales reached 9.233 million, a year - on - year increase of 25.9%. Except for China, Europe and other regions also had significant growth, with year - on - year increases of 29.5% and 53.4% respectively [2]. - **European Market**: Data on European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France are presented in charts [44][50][55]. - **North American Market**: In August, US new energy vehicle sales and penetration rate reached record highs. Due to the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit on September 30, high market enthusiasm is expected to continue in September, followed by a sharp decline. Data on North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV are presented in charts [2][119]. - **Other Regions**: Data on new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in regions such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand are presented in charts [62][70][72]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Data on power battery installation volume, export volume, weekly average price of battery cells, material costs, and the operating rates and prices of various battery materials are presented in charts [79][81][85]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Data on the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented in charts [102][103][104]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles in China. From 2026, export license management will be implemented for pure - electric passenger vehicles [109]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From September 1 - 21, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 10% year - on - year, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 24%. In the 38th week (September 15 - 21), new energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 299,000, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 8.214 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% [111][112][113]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - Chery Automobile was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HK$9.14 billion. Li Auto and Sunwoda Power jointly established a battery company [114]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - Australia announced a 2035 emission reduction target, aiming to reduce emissions by 62 - 70% compared to 2005. The US lowered the import tariff on EU cars to 15%, and Turkey imposed new tariffs on imported passenger cars [114][116][119]. 3.3.5 Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - BYD's Brazilian factory obtained an international green certificate. Porsche adjusted its product strategy, slowing down electrification and lowering its 2025 performance expectations [117][118]. 3.4 Investment Advice - Pay attention to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. Focus on enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [3][120].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. steel industry is central to Trump's vision for a new industrial economy, with tariffs imposed to strengthen domestic production and reduce reliance on imports [1] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Steel Industry - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, affecting 407 product categories, including steel derivatives [1] - U.S. crude steel production showed a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, but the growth is modest compared to a 2.3% decline the previous year [3] - The average capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel reached 76.6%, indicating limited improvement [3] Group 2: Effects on China's Steel Industry - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, with only 89,000 tons expected in 2024, representing 0.8% of China's total steel exports [2] - The potential for steel re-export through countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Brazil is limited, accounting for only 4.5% of China's total steel exports if all were sourced from China [2] Group 3: Strategic Responses - The domestic steel industry should maintain a strategic approach, resisting panic and focusing on practical responses to tariffs [5] - Encouraging high-end steel and green steel exports through measures like export tax rebates is recommended [5] - The industry should align with national policies to accelerate the transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green steel production [5]