Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on the automotive markets in Europe and Japan, with Volvo's recent financial struggles serving as a bellwether for the challenges facing these industries [1][9][13]. Group 1: Volvo's Financial Performance - Volvo reported an operating loss of 10 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 7.4 billion RMB) in Q2, marking its first quarterly loss since going public in 2021 [2][5]. - The loss was attributed to U.S. tariffs and high restructuring costs, with the company previously forecasting a profit of 2.3 billion Swedish Krona [5][7]. - Excluding one-time costs of 11.4 billion Swedish Krona, Volvo's operating profit for Q2 would have been 2.9 billion Swedish Krona, still down from 8 billion Krona in the same period last year [7]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles, severely affecting Volvo's ability to sell its profitable new ES90 model in the U.S. market [7][11]. - Volvo has begun withdrawing certain models from its U.S. product line due to decreased market interest and the direct impact of tariffs [10]. - The CEO emphasized that while Volvo will not exit the U.S. market, the tariffs are forcing significant adjustments to their product and production strategies [11][12]. Group 3: Broader Industry Implications - Analysts suggest that Volvo's financial difficulties are indicative of broader challenges facing the European and Japanese automotive sectors, with expectations of a tough earnings season due to the ripple effects of U.S. tariffs [13][14]. - The Japanese automotive industry is also experiencing significant trade tensions, with June exports to the U.S. dropping 26.7% year-over-year, a worsening from May's 24.7% decline [3][17][20]. - Japanese automakers are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, indicating a trend of prioritizing lower-priced models to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2509 contract down 0.05% and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally declined. Key - term treasury bond yields at home and abroad also changed. Overall, the current external environment is more complex, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports treasury bond prices to some extent, but the "anti - involution" policy drives up some commodity prices, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term due to the rise in market risk appetite [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, the prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. For example, the T2509 contract decreased by 0.05%. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. The trading volume varied among different contracts [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, suggesting no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Most short - term market interest rates declined on the previous trading day. For instance, the SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped by 4.2bp, the DR007 rate fell by 5.66bp, and the GC007 rate decreased by 4.3bp [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 0.13bp to 1.66%, and the 10 - 2 year yield spread was 25.05bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10 - year US treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, the 10 - year German treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, and the 10 - year Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 1.3bp [2]. Macro and Industry Information - **Macro News**: The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan. The State Council held a meeting to discuss various policies. The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy vehicles showed different growth trends. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and Trump made statements about the Fed chair [3]. - **Industry Information**: On July 16, most money - market interest rates showed mixed trends. The yields of US treasury bonds generally declined, mainly affected by the news of Trump's potential dismissal of the Fed chair [3].

Core Insights - The Euro/USD continues to weaken, falling below 1.1600 due to strong US CPI data in June, which has provided additional momentum to the dollar [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Economic confidence in Germany and the Eurozone has improved, yet the Euro has declined further, nearing a four-week low, contributing to the Euro/USD's fifth consecutive day of decline [2]. - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal internal divisions among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others prefer caution until the impact of tariff-driven inflation is clearer [4]. Trade Tensions - The White House has announced a pause on new tariff decisions until August 1, but escalating trade tensions are evident, including threats of 30% tariffs on EU goods and 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea, which have heightened concerns over broader conflicts and increased the dollar's value [3]. Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is supported by accelerating inflation pressures, as indicated by the June CPI data, while the European Central Bank has stated it will only consider further easing if there is clear evidence of a slowdown in external demand [4]. Market Dynamics - Speculators are focusing on key levels for the Euro/USD, needing to break above 1.1830 to target long-term highs, while a drop below 1.1592 could lead to testing lower support levels [5]. - Technical indicators have shifted to a bearish mode, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 48, indicating potential further declines, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 27 suggesting a strong trend [6]. Short-term Outlook - The prospect of Fed rate cuts alongside the ECB's pause may provide new momentum for the Euro, potentially pushing the Euro/USD higher, although any sustained rebound is hindered by ongoing trade tensions and the unpredictability of US tariff policies [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

【华通白银网7月16日讯】•由于CPI数据缓和了近期降息的希望，金价跌至3330美元下方。 •在特朗普压力和鲍威尔继任不确定的情况下，美联储的可信度成为焦点。 •由于看涨势头在之前的三角阻力位附近消退，黄金在3335美元附近挣扎。 周二，在美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告增强了美联储可能不会在近期调整利率的预期之后，黄金窄幅波动。 截止撰写本文时，黄金价格低于3330美元，风险情绪和风险情绪的小幅上升限制了上行走势。 6月消费者价格指数（CPI）显示，整体CPI同比上涨2.7%，符合预期，而核心CPI为2.9%，略低于3%的共识，但仍远高于美联储2%的目 标。 通胀放缓不及预期削弱了9月降息前景，美联储降息概率降至54.4%，而利率"长期维持高位"的概率升至44%。 市场的反应反映了利率预期的重新定价，美国国债收益率走强，美元走强。与此同时，特朗普继续向鲍威尔施压。 美国财政部长贝森特在接受彭博社采访时表示："正如特朗普所说，他不打算解雇鲍威尔。" 然而，贝森特周二也表示："按照传统，美联储主席在卸任时也会同时辞去理事一职。此前有很多关于'影子美联储主席'的讨论，称其会 在正式提名前造成混乱。我可以明确说，若 ...

Core Insights - WTO economists predict a slowdown in global goods trade growth later this year due to ample inventories and increased tariffs impacting import demand [1][7] - In the first quarter of 2025, global goods trade volume increased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, driven by a surge in North American imports in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The growth in trade volume exceeded WTO's earlier forecast of a 0.2% decline for the year [3] Trade Volume and Value - The dollar value of global goods trade, adjusted for seasonality, increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong trade volume growth despite a decline in prices [3] - The first quarter saw significant growth in specific categories: office and telecommunications equipment (up 16%), chemicals (up 12%), and clothing (up 7%) [6] Regional Performance - North America led with a 13.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in imports, followed by Africa (5.1%), South America and Central America & Caribbean (3.6%), the Middle East (3.0%), Europe (1.3%), and Asia (1.1%) [4] - In terms of exports, the Middle East recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth at 6.3%, followed by Asia (5.6%) and South America (3.2%) [5] Future Trends - Data indicates that after a surge in the first quarter, import demand is beginning to slow down, with U.S. imports growing only 1% in the first two months of the second quarter after a 25% increase in the first quarter [7][8] - The World Bank reports a significant downward adjustment in trade growth forecasts for developed economies, with expected growth for 2025 being about half of earlier predictions [8]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.380 | 102.468 | 105.920 | 106.005 | 108.730 | 108.775 | 120.29 | 120.12 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.416 | 102.518 | 105.995 | 106.095 | 108.830 | 108.885 | 120.61 | 120.44 | | | 涨跌 | -0.036 | -0.050 | -0.075 | -0.090 | -0.100 | -0.110 | -0.320 | -0.320 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty and slight inventory accumulation, prices are expected to move within a range in the short term, and future attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [11] - For zinc, supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put upward pressure; attention should be paid to news development [13] - For tin, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the downward pressure will increase in the medium term [14] Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 4 to July 11, 2025, copper futures (CU2508) decreased by 1.63%, aluminum futures (AL2508) increased by 0.29%, zinc futures (ZN2508) decreased by 0.13%, tin futures (SN2508) decreased by 1.24%, and nickel futures (NI2508) decreased by 0.72%. Spot copper prices decreased by 2.18%, aluminum by 0.05%, zinc by 1.75%, tin by 0.47%, and nickel by 1.05% [8] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Trade tensions increased due to new tariffs, and there was a possibility of Fed rate - cuts. Nationally, the alumina operating rate decreased, and overseas, Guinea imposed shipping requirements on bauxite exports. Alumina inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak [10] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term [11] - **Zinc** - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were stable, and import fees increased. The zinc ingot import window remained closed. Downstream galvanizing开工率 increased, and zinc inventory rose [13] - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put pressure [13] - **Tin** - **Logic**: Myanmar's supply progress was slower than expected, causing a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand showed signs of phased contraction [14] - **Viewpoint**: Slightly stronger in the short term, but downward pressure increases in the medium term [14] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - **Price**: Domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton; low - grade at 570 yuan/ton. Imported bauxite index average price was 73.72 dollars/ton, down 0.58 dollars/ton [18] - **Port Volume**: Bauxite arrival volume was 420.49 million tons, up 8.74 million tons; departure volume was 429.2 million tons, up 18.94 million tons [21] - **Alumina** - **Price and Profit**: Domestic price in Henan was 3150 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; cost was 2844.4 yuan/ton, down 4.7 yuan/ton; profit in Shanxi was 225.05 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [24] - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Cost and Spread**: Total cost was 16571.68 yuan/ton, up 101.54 yuan/ton; regional spread (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 10 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [26] - **Downstream Processing**:开工率 of aluminum cable, foil, plate, profile, primary and secondary aluminum alloy showed different changes [29][31] - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including保税区, social, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [36][37] - **Spot and Basis**: Different basis data for SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan changed [42][45] - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of Shanghai aluminum futures changed [46] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - **Price and Processing Fee**: Domestic zinc concentrate price was 17088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; domestic processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; import processing fee was 66.25 dollars/dry ton, up 1 dollar/dry ton [50] - **Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory**: Production profit was 4088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; import loss was 864.57 yuan/ton, down 152.17 yuan/ton; import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 80,000 physical tons, down 10,000 tons [55] - **Refined Zinc** - **Inventory**: Various inventory data, including social,保税区, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [58] - **Galvanizing** - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production was 345,545 tons, up 19,495 tons;开工率 was 58.29%, up 1.81%; raw material inventory was 14,370 tons, up 1,110 tons; finished product inventory was 341,700 tons, up 9,300 tons [61] - **Zinc Basis and Inter - month Spread**: Different basis and spread data changed [64][68] Tin - **Refined Tin** - **Production and开工率**: Yunnan and Jiangxi's combined production was 0.262 million tons, up 0.05 million tons;开工率 was 54.07%, up 1.03% [72] - **Tin Ingot** - **Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7097 tons, down 101 tons; social inventory was 9644 tons, down 110 tons [75] - **Tin Concentrate** - **Processing Fee**: Processing fees in different regions remained unchanged but were lower year - on - year [77] - **Import Profit and Loss**: Import profit was 12005.23 yuan/ton, down 2059.74 yuan/ton [78] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased by 600 yuan/ton [82]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing its longest losing streak against the US dollar in two years, leading options traders to adopt a bearish outlook on the currency [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The pound fell 0.3% to a three-week low of 1.3452 USD, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline, the longest since July 2023 [3]. - The decline is attributed to a stronger US dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth in the UK [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - UK economic data revealed a surprise contraction of 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to growth and reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England [3]. - Current market pricing indicates an expectation of 58 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous week [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in the next meeting is now estimated at 80%, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach until at least September [5]. - Upcoming key data releases, including inflation reports from both the UK and the US, as well as UK labor market data, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [5].

金十数据7月14日讯，欧洲午盘交易时段，伦敦铜价下跌，因贸易紧张局势升温打压整个大宗商品市场 情绪。伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜期货下跌0.6%，报每吨9,602美元。特朗普总统对欧盟和墨 西哥商品征收30%关税，引发了人们对经济放缓的担忧，而经济放缓可能会削弱工业金属的需求。此 外，特朗普宣布美国将从8月1日起对进口红铜征收50%的关税（尽管具体细节尚未公布），这使得铜价 还面临针对其行业的关税压力。巴克莱分析师表示，由于美国买家成本上升，可能会出现短暂的需求缺 口，进而给铜价带来压力。不过，该行预计这对伦敦金属交易所铜价的影响将是短暂的。 伦敦铜价午盘下跌 巴克莱：关税影响或短暂 ...