Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to decline, hovering near a five-month low due to concerns over potential oversupply and weakening global energy demand [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Brent crude futures fell by 0.19% to $62.27 per barrel, while WTI crude futures decreased by 0.17% to $58.60 per barrel, both reaching five-month lows in the previous trading session [1][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible oversupply of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, significantly exceeding previous market expectations [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The ongoing trade tensions are negatively impacting global economic vitality and energy consumption forecasts, contributing to a pessimistic market sentiment [3] - Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. crude oil inventory data, with expectations of an increase of approximately 200,000 barrels for the week ending October 10 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Ranged trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to wait and see for glass [1][8][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Recommended to hold long positions on copper on dips; consider low-level long positions on aluminum; wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; ranged trading for tin; buy on dips for gold; ranged trading for silver [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate; short strategy for soda ash 01 contract [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook; PTA is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have a wide-range fluctuation; soybean meal is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation; oils are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][40][48] Core Viewpoints - The stock index market may have wide-range fluctuations in the future due to the change in the macro environment and the impact on the technology sector; the bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs, with prices showing different trends; the non-ferrous metals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro factors, with copper and gold prices expected to be supported [11][19] - The energy chemicals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro policies, with PVC and soda ash facing certain pressure; the cotton textile industry chain is affected by supply and demand and Sino-US relations, with cotton and PTA showing different trends [22][34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by supply, demand, and policies, with pigs and eggs facing supply pressure and oils expected to have limited callbacks [40][52] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The market turnover has increased, and the technology sector has been affected by the macro environment [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The pithead price shows a differentiated trend, and the demand for early heating provides potential support [8] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The price has fallen, and the static valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying opportunity around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply has increased slightly, the inventory has risen, and the market is affected by policies and supply news [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to maintain a high-level strong trend. The supply is affected by accidents, and the demand has room for improvement in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, the demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to consider low-level long positions [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply may be loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is tight, the demand is warming up, and it is recommended to conduct ranged trading [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The prices are supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price corrections [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4800 for 01 [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 2380 - 2530 for 01 [25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to maintain a short strategy for the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the price may decline [33] - **Other Chemicals**: The markets of styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and different factors affect their prices [22][26][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook. The supply and demand are adjusted, and the Sino-US relationship brings uncertainty [34] - **PTA**: The market is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply and demand are balanced [35][36] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The markets are expected to fluctuate stronger. The production and supply of apples are affected by the weather, and the supply of jujubes is affected by the harvest time [36][37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The market is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak in the short and long term. It is recommended to adjust short positions [40] - **Eggs**: The market is under pressure to rebound. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adjust short positions and wait for the spot market [42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation. The new crop is listed, and the supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to have a low-level range-bound fluctuation. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2900 for M2601 [45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to have limited callbacks. The prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to buy after the callback [52]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warns of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, indicating that "the downside risks to employment have risen" [1] - Powell suggests that the Federal Reserve may soon end its long-standing efforts to reduce its balance sheet, stating that they are closely monitoring various indicators to determine if this goal has been achieved [1] - Market interprets Powell's remarks as dovish, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut at the end of October, with expectations that a rate cut is almost certain [4] Group 2 - Former President Trump escalates trade tensions by threatening to terminate business relations with China in the edible oil and other trade sectors, following complaints about China's soybean purchases [5] - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising to 4180 before a sharp drop to 4090, attributed to market rumors and trading activities related to silver [5] - Despite the fluctuations, the outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations to reach the 4200 USD mark, while cautioning against potential sudden sell-offs [10]

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has shown a slight increase against the US dollar, currently at an exchange rate of 0.5720, reflecting a 0.09% rise, primarily due to signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that "quantitative tightening may be nearing its end," which has led to a decline in the US dollar index [1] - The sustainability of this technical rebound is questioned as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has expressed an open stance towards further rate cuts if necessary, fundamentally limiting the NZD's upward potential [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming release of New Zealand's September food price index, which is expected to provide crucial guidance for the central bank's future interest rate decisions and may trigger new market volatility [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that the US labor market remains in a "low hiring, low layoff" state, suggesting that a rate cut may be considered in the October meeting [1] - Despite some economic data being missing due to government shutdowns, Powell indicated that this has not yet affected policymakers' outlook on the economic situation [1] - The futures market indicates that investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, with the possibility of three additional cuts next year [1] Group 3: Trade Tensions - The trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, with both sides imposing port fees on a wide range of goods [2] - President Trump has indicated that he is considering severing trade relations with China in sectors such as edible oils, which could lead to further retaliatory actions from the US government [2] - The ongoing trade tensions are expected to exert pressure on risk-sensitive currencies [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis of NZD/USD - The overall outlook for the NZD/USD remains bearish, maintaining a stable downtrend since July 1 [3] - There is a strong resistance zone above the current price, ranging from 0.6007 to 0.6059, while the key support area is located at 0.5684; a break below this level could open further downside potential, targeting the 0.5485 level [3]

Core Insights - The international gold price has reached a new record high, influenced by trade tensions and market expectations of two additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Spot gold prices briefly surpassed $4,186 per ounce, while spot silver prices also increased significantly [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold price rose by 0.9% to $4,180.92 per ounce as of 10:11 AM [1] - Silver prices experienced volatility, peaking at over $53.54 before a sharp decline due to a short squeeze [1] - Platinum and palladium prices also saw an upward trend [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields fell to multi-week lows, contributing to the favorable conditions for non-yielding precious metals [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential 25 basis point rate cut at the end of the month [1]

受贸易紧张局势和鲍威尔降息信号推动，现货黄金突破4180美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内上涨0.9%。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 ...

Core Points - The Dow industrials experienced a decline of more than 1.3% in early trading but ultimately ended the session higher [1] Group 1 - The initial drop in the Dow industrials indicates market volatility and investor sentiment [1] - The recovery by the end of the session suggests potential resilience in the market [1]

U.S. and Chinese officials at the senior staff level talked on Monday following a flare-up in trade tensions between the two geopolitical rivals, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC in an Tuesday interview. ...

| | | | | Difference from July | | | Difference from April | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Projections | | 2025 WEO Update1 | | | 2025 WEO1 | | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | | World Output | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | | Advanced Economies | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | | United States | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | | Euro Area | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | | Germany | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | ...

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in July, while maintaining growth rates for 2024 and 2026 at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively [1] - Despite a more accommodative financial environment and limited trade shocks, the IMF emphasizes significant downside risks to global growth, particularly from escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The IMF projects that global inflation will decrease from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, and further to 3.7% in 2026, although there is notable regional divergence [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding the impact of rising artificial intelligence investments on consumer prices, which may necessitate tighter monetary policies [1] Latin America and the Caribbean - The growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean for 2025 has been raised from 2.2% to 2.4%, but the 2026 forecast has been lowered from 2.4% to 2.3% [2] - Mexico's growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly increased from 0.2% to 1.0%, while Brazil's has been slightly raised to 2.4% for 2025 but lowered to 1.9% for 2026 [2] - Argentina's growth outlook has worsened, with the 2025 forecast reduced from 5.5% to 4.5% [2] Eurozone Economic Conditions - The IMF has raised the Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 from 1.0% to 1.2%, but has lowered the 2026 forecast from 1.2% to 1.1% [3] - The report indicates that current growth is achieved at a high fiscal cost, with debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 87% in 2024 to 92% by 2030 [3] Japan's Economic Outlook - Japan's growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 0.7% to 1.1%, with a projected growth of 0.6% for 2026 [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually increase interest rates to 1.5%, which is considered neutral for the economy and aligned with inflation targets [4] UK Economic Performance - The UK's growth forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%, with the same forecast for 2026 [5] - The UK is expected to maintain the highest inflation rate in the G7 at 3.4% and 2.5% for the next two years, which constrains the Bank of England's ability to lower interest rates [5] Saudi Arabia's Economic Growth - Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 3% to 4%, with the same forecast for 2026 [6] - The increase is attributed to the faster-than-expected exit from oil production cuts, with non-oil sector growth significantly contributing to the overall GDP growth [7]