Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a weak state, with prices fluctuating around 3332, and there is potential for a rebound if the market weakens further [2][4] - Long-term, gold remains a solid asset for inflation protection and risk aversion, despite pressures from geopolitical stability and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with a significant drop in prices and a critical resistance level at 3350, suggesting a continued weak outlook unless this level is breached [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has stabilized after two days of decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 1.1% to $67.89 per barrel, and WTI crude oil increasing to $65.08 [5] - The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.23 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, indicates strong refinery demand and supports oil prices [5] - Technical analysis suggests a mixed outlook for oil, with short-term bearish trends but potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are surpassed [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.89%, recovering losses from earlier in the year, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increasing by 0.94% and 0.96% respectively [1] - Tesla's stock surged over 8% following the launch of RoboTaxi in Texas, contributing to the overall market rally [1] - The performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks has lagged behind the broader market, with a cumulative decline of 3.73% year-to-date, while Tesla's decline has narrowed to 13.66% [2] Group 2 - Apple has faced pressure on its stock price due to regulatory fines and declining product demand, with year-to-date declines of 19.34% [3] - Amazon and Google also recorded year-to-date declines of 4.98% and 12.62% respectively [3] - Meta and Microsoft have outperformed, with year-to-date gains of 19.50% and 15.75% respectively, driven by Meta's aggressive investment in AI infrastructure and acquisitions [3][4] Group 3 - Meta plans to introduce advertising on its WhatsApp platform to increase revenue and alleviate the burden of its substantial capital expenditures [4] - The market remains optimistic about Meta's future prospects due to its strategic investments in AI and potential revenue streams [4] Group 4 - The easing of geopolitical risks may shift market focus back to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the fundamentals of listed companies, impacting capital investment and industry layout [5]

盘面看，港股油气股全线重挫，截至北京时间10:49，山东墨龙跌超18%，中石化油服跌超12%，吉星新 能源跌超35%；航运及港口股集体下跌，德翔海运跌近14%，太平洋航运跌超12%。 6月24日， 日韩股市 开盘大幅走高，截至北 京时间10:27， 日经225指数涨1.08%， 韩国 综合指数上涨2.51%。A股及港股市场走强，截至北 京时间10:27，恒生指数涨1.66%，上证 指数涨0.91%，站上3400点。 国际金价、油价走低。截至北京时间10:27，伦敦现货黄金跌0.59%；COMEX黄金期货跌 0.85%；美国原油期货主力合约跌2.45%；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.16%。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/24，不作投资推荐） A股港股走强 油气股重挫 A股指数走强，截至10:57，创业板指涨1.87%，上证指数涨0.9%，站上3400点，全市场上涨个股家数超 4500只，游戏、无人驾驶、航空机场等板块指数涨幅居前。 受国际油价大跌影响，A股油气股集体大跌，泰山石油、贝肯能源等大跌，航运方向也多股大跌。 港股方面， 截至10:49， 恒生指数涨近2%。 新华社消息， 据美国阿克西奥 ...

受国际油价大跌影响，A股油气股集体大跌，泰山石油、贝肯能源等大跌，航运方向也多股大跌。 港股方面，截至10:49，恒生指数涨近2%。 盘面看，港股油气股全线重挫，截至北京时间10:49，山东墨龙跌超18%，中石化油服跌超12%，吉星新 能源跌超35%；航运及港口股集体下跌，德翔海运跌近14%，太平洋航运跌超12%。 | 内地股票 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3412.04 | 10182.47 | 1405.52 | | +30.46 +0.90% +134.08 +1.33% +37.37 +2.73% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 975.66 | 2055.35 | 5191.56 | | +14.17 +1.47% +37.72 +1.87% +60.89 +1.19% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 3897.94 | 5742.14 | 4559.87 | | +40.04 +1.04% +67.97 +1. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ongoing volatility in the gold market, characterized by frequent price fluctuations and a "super sweep" trend that is expected to continue [3][5]. - The recent Federal Reserve decision to maintain interest rates has led to a decrease in the probability of rate cuts in 2025, impacting market sentiment and contributing to gold's price movements [3]. - Current support levels for gold are identified at 3345-50, with resistance at 3385 and 3400, indicating a potential for further price action depending on market developments [3][6]. Group 2 - Recent military actions involving the U.S. and Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities have not significantly affected gold prices, despite being perceived as a risk factor [5]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards bearish for gold, with specific price levels to watch for potential short positions, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [6][8]. - Trading strategies are being advised to include strict stop-loss measures to mitigate risks associated with the current market volatility [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show weakness, with major indices declining and market sentiment remaining cold, as evidenced by a significant drop in the number of rising stocks compared to falling ones [1] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% to 3362.11 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.21% to 10051.97 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.36% to 2026.82 points, with a total market turnover of 1.28 trillion yuan [1] - Despite the overall market pressure, certain sectors like military and robotics showed resilience, with military stocks such as Zhongbing Hongjian rising by 3.88% and Changcheng Military by 10.02%, indicating a preference for defensive investments amid geopolitical tensions [2] - The technology sector, particularly the robotics segment, also performed well, with stocks like Aobi Zhongguang and Jing Shan Qingji rising by 3.95% and 5.19% respectively, suggesting a recovery after a prolonged adjustment period [2] Geopolitical Events - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has heightened market tensions, leading to increased interest in energy-related stocks, with indices such as the Energy Equipment and Services Index rising by 1.98% [3] - The Iranian substitute concept stocks, including Jin Niu Chemical and Xinghua Shares, saw gains of over 3%, reflecting investor optimism regarding resource demand amid geopolitical risks [3] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market experienced widespread declines, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.99% to 23237.74 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 2.42%, indicating a lack of trading enthusiasm with a turnover of only 112.76 billion HKD, down nearly 40% from the previous day [4] - Major tech stocks such as Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba all fell over 1%, while the new consumption sector also faced significant declines, with stocks like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold dropping over 5% [5] Market Summary - There is a noticeable increase in risk-averse sentiment, leading to a strategy of high cutting and low buying across market sectors [6]

Macro Perspective - Gold's status as a "safe haven" has been highlighted amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with prices rebounding after hitting a low of $3,366.07 to around $3,388.39 [1] - The main driver for gold's rebound is the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with increased U.S. military involvement, which has heightened risk aversion and boosted gold's appeal [1] - Despite gold's rise, the U.S. dollar index surged by 0.7% in a single day, which has limited gold's upward movement; weak U.S. retail data signals economic slowdown [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, while Trump's calls for rate cuts are being treated cautiously [1] - Looking ahead, geopolitical risks support gold prices, but a strong dollar and the Fed's stance may restrict further gains; investors should closely monitor Fed policies, dollar trends, and Middle Eastern developments [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 98.845 and a low of 97.972, closing at 98.805 [2] - The market experienced short-term fluctuations, with prices consolidating in a support area before a strong upward movement during the U.S. trading session [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 100.35, while the daily key resistance is at 98.70; the focus remains on whether the dollar index can break and hold above these levels [2] Gold Market - On Tuesday, gold prices fluctuated, peaking at $3,403.18 and bottoming at $3,366.07, closing at $3,388.39 [4] - The market's fluctuations are seen as a correction following a previous decline, with attention needed on daily support levels; a break below these levels could lead to further declines [4] - Multi-timeframe analysis indicates that gold remains in a bullish trend unless it breaks below the weekly support around $3,255-$3,260 [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair experienced a downward trend, with a low of 1.1474 and a high of 1.1579, closing at 1.1479 [6] - The market initially faced pressure but later showed signs of consolidation above a four-hour support level before ultimately breaking down [6] - Multi-timeframe analysis suggests that the Euro/USD pair is supported at 1.0850 in the long term, while the key level to watch is 1.1455 for potential trend direction [6]

Market Overview - The equity market showed significant recovery on June 16, driven by the "buying on dips" mentality and expectations of incremental policies, with technology, real estate, and financial sectors leading the gains [1] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rose by 0.35%, 0.25%, and 0.23% respectively, while smaller cap indices performed better, with the Wande Micro Cap Index and CSI 1000 increasing by 1.43% and 0.68% respectively [1] - The bond market saw a mixed performance, with short-term rates strengthening due to central bank support, while long-term rates remained volatile [1][4] International Context - The conflict between Israel and Iran has become a global focus, with markets pricing in that the war will not significantly escalate, leading to a decline in gold prices [2] - Economic data from May indicated pressure on the real estate sector, with new and second-hand home prices declining across major cities, prompting expectations for policy support [2][6] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank continued to inject liquidity, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan on the first day of the tax period, leading to a decrease in overnight rates [3] - The stability in liquidity has kept the issuance rates of certificates of deposit steady, with rates for major banks remaining in the range of 1.62%-1.69% [3][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in media, communication, and computer industries, rising by 2.70%, 2.11%, and 1.99% respectively [5][6] - The real estate sector also performed well, with the SW Real Estate Index increasing by 1.85% due to positive policy signals aimed at stabilizing the market [6][8] - The banking and non-banking financial sectors saw gains of 1.32% and 1.09%, respectively, reflecting investor optimism regarding upcoming policy announcements [6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the market's recovery momentum is strong, with expectations for policy support playing a crucial role in the rebound [8] - It is recommended to look for investment opportunities in sectors with low valuations and strong fundamentals, such as electronics and utilities, particularly in the context of ongoing technology narratives and potential domestic replacements due to international sanctions [8]

Key Points - The report emphasizes a cautious investment strategy focusing on stability amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2] - Recent events include US-China trade talks in London, disappointing US CPI data, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel [1][8] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance at 3400 points, while sectors like new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and precious metals demonstrated resilience [1][8] Weekly Event Review - The US-China trade discussions did not yield substantial agreements, indicating a prolonged negotiation period on tariffs and export controls [2][9] - The US CPI for May rose by 2.4%, below expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 139,000, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [9] - The military conflict between Iran and Israel intensified, with significant airstrikes and retaliatory actions, raising concerns over regional stability [9] Trading Data - The report notes an increase in average daily trading volume to 1.37 trillion yuan during the week [1][8] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong defensive characteristics and stable earnings, particularly: - **Gold**: Driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, gold prices have surged, breaking through $3,400 per ounce [3][17] - **Banking Sector**: The banking sector is viewed as a stable investment due to resilient earnings and attractive dividends, providing a safe haven for investors [3][18] - **Hydropower**: The hydropower sector is highlighted for its stable cost structure and consistent cash flow, making it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors [3][18]

Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].