Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged dramatically, with international gold prices approaching $3500 per ounce after a significant increase from $2050 per ounce at the beginning of 2024, marking an over 70% rise in eighteen months, reminiscent of the 1970s gold bull market [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts to $4000 per ounce, predicting that gold will replace the US dollar as the "ultimate currency" by 2026 [3] - The market is experiencing a split, with gold ETFs growing to 160 billion yuan in six months, while physical gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by 35.7% year-on-year, reaching a three-year low [3] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a global central bank gold accumulation race [3] - Short-term catalysts for gold's rise include the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, renewed Middle Eastern conflicts, and the bursting of the tech bubble in US stock markets, positioning gold as a preferred asset for capital flight [3] - The dual nature of gold is highlighted, with retail investors seeking gold as a hedge against inflation while institutional investors use algorithms to hedge against geopolitical risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current upward trend in gold prices is driven by a significant breakout from a prolonged consolidation period between 2020 and 2023, influenced by worsening global geopolitical and economic conditions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] - The analysis suggests that gold is currently in the third wave of an upward trend, with expectations of a potential fourth wave correction followed by a fifth wave increase [1] - Recent price movements have shown extreme volatility, with gold reaching 3500, but closing with a long upper shadow candlestick, signaling potential risks despite the overall upward trend [3] Group 2 - The monthly chart indicates a bullish trend for the next 1-2 years, reinforcing the expectation of continued price increases in gold [2][4] - The daily chart reflects a transitional phase with significant local pullbacks, but the overall upward momentum remains intact, supported by moving averages below current prices [6] - The four-hour chart indicates a clear range-bound movement, with critical support at 3260; a break below this level could lead to further declines, while a rise above 3371 would signal renewed strength [7][8]

以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ，作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗，对机构更专业，努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 这个星期，相比于A股，我想另一个资产应该引起了更大的关注， 它就是年内涨幅一度快到30%的资产——黄 金。 隔岸的大嘴，原本想"make America great again"，最后搞成了"make Au great again"。尤其是前几天，每天 两三个点的涨幅，确实是简直了…… 然而，这个世界总是被反者道之动的规律所支配。任何一个风险资产的表现不会永远顺滑的，也没有一个风险 资产会只涨不跌的。偶然中蕴含着必然，尽管今天黄金的大跌与trump的态度缓和有很大关系，但其次这一次 大跌，也恰恰是发生一系列指标进入极值以后…… 图：当日沪金指数的分时走势 数据来源：Wind 最近的黄金有多疯狂呢？我们一起来跟踪两组数据。 首先，国际金价的乖离率又一次进入了历史极值区域。 所谓乖离率，指的是一个资产价格相对某根均线的偏离 程度，对于前天收盘的国际金价，它相对于20天均线的乖离率已经达到了2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][35] - The report highlights the mixed performance of industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, with market direction remaining uncertain due to tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are facing cost pressures that are limiting production, while the demand for lithium remains stable [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by increased ETF holdings, with a notable weekly increase of 2.58 tons in SPDR Gold ETF [1] - The market is shifting from a "hot economy + inflation" narrative to a stagflation outlook, which historically benefits gold prices [1][35] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a flat performance, with global copper inventories at 695,000 tons, down by 62,000 tons week-on-week [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to U.S. tariff policies, with theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry at 43.81 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 70,000 yuan/ton, while production is constrained by cost pressures [3] - The report notes a 3% decrease in lithium carbonate production to 17,400 tons, with an operating rate of 46% [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment initially recovered due to the Trump administration's slight loosening in electronics - related tariff policies, but turned pessimistic as the latest US - EU trade negotiations stalled, pushing gold to a new all - time high. In the short to medium term, the impact of the trade war remains highly uncertain, and major - power games will continue to fluctuate. Gold, with its good hedging properties, is likely to rise easily and fall hard, and silver may also be supported by gold and show a strong - side oscillation [8]. Summary by Directory Market Review - In the precious metals market, London gold broke through the $3300 mark, reaching a record high of $3317.89 and then falling back to around $3295. London silver also rose and is trading around $32.9. Affected by the overseas market, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 2.68% at 781.6 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.5% at 8233 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, trading around 99.6 [4]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly, trading around 4.31% [5]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened lower and then rose slightly, trading around 7.316 [5]. Important Information - Tariff policy trends: Trump said on the 15th that the suspension of tariffs was for a transition period and flexibility, and would accelerate the issuance of all necessary licenses to NVIDIA. The EU and the US have made little progress in bridging trade differences, and most US tariffs on the EU will continue. Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for 6 months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico has strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the Texas border in the US have stalled [6]. - Fed watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 27.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 60.1%. The market bets that the Fed will cut rates once each in June, July, September, and December this year [6]. Logical Analysis - The market's risk sentiment changed from recovery to pessimism due to the situation of trade negotiations, which led to gold hitting a new high. Gold is expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall in the short - to - medium term, and silver may be supported by gold [8]. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [8]. - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [9]. - For options, use the collar call option strategy [10]. Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals prices, the relationship between real yields and precious metals prices, the relationship between domestic and foreign futures prices, the relationship between futures and spot prices, the gold - to - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [15][16][17]

[Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 e_main] 衍生品市场类模板 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 宏 观 报 告 在不确定性中寻找确定性 宏 观 经 ──市场走势点评+宏观策略展望 报告导读 济 研 究 — 宏 观 策 略 报 告 4 月 3 日特朗普在白宫签署"对等关税"的行政令，宣布对所有贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，广谱 10%的关税将于 4 月 5 日生效，对于以中国、 越南和欧盟为代表的"重点贸易逆差国"，本轮对等关税的累计加征幅度达到 了 20%-54%不等。相较于其他国家（如加拿大、墨西哥、欧盟等）较为妥协的 态度，中国对美国关税威胁保持了较强的战略定力，并在特朗普上任后的前 2 次关税威胁后，均采取了反制措施。在 4 月 3 日美国"对等关税"宣布后，中 国在次日便宣布了多项反制措施，包括对美所有进口商品征收 34%关税，将 16 家美国企业列入出口管制名单和对中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制等。随着全 球贸易冲突发酵，市场 risk-off 情绪明显升温，风险资产"全军覆没"，甚 至以黄金为代表的传统避险资产也出现显著调整；但以美债、日元和 VIX 等资 产却迎来一波较为强 ...

作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大 数 据（www.gogudata.com） 4 月 2 日，即明天，懂王说是美国的解放日。 然而，对于全球投资者来说，有可能是 "受难日"。 因为他的关税政策，已经在全球资本市场掀起了巨浪，逼得全球股市都进入了下跌模式，美股自己还是最惨的 一个，反之，避险之王的黄金价格，则节节攀升。 不管你信不信，反正市场走势已经说明一切。 避险，依然是当下的市场整体风格。 而且，即便已经下跌了不少，然而站在这个时点，市场神经依然高度紧绷。 因为懂王最终的全球关税政策如何，依然迷雾重重，但它也是影响市场涨跌最重要也是最关键的因素，没有之 一。 01 底牌到底如何？ 说实话，这个问题真的无法提前判断。 相信大家对于懂王各种烟雾弹的作风已经很清楚了，今天说东，明天说西，后天再来一个南，最后结果是北。 如果你没有定力，一定会被他绕晕，然后很容易糊里糊涂地做了一些不知所谓的交易，运气好可以获得一些盈 利，但更多的时候，应该是亏损的概率高一点。 就像昨晚，美股大跌，但最后因为特朗普说的 "友好"言论，又硬生生地拉了回来，但盘后、夜盘，又继续开 启下跌模式。 很明显，涨跌全靠特朗普，真不是一句虚话。 ...

Group 1 - Li Ka-shing's company, CK Hutchison, announced the sale of its global port assets to a consortium led by BlackRock, covering 43 ports across 23 countries, including a 90% stake in the Panama Port Company [4] - The Hong Kong Chief Executive, John Lee, emphasized the importance of providing a fair environment for local businesses and stated that any transaction must comply with legal regulations [4] - The sale has sparked criticism, with some commentators suggesting it reflects a lack of national loyalty among Hong Kong businessmen [5] Group 2 - Xiaomi Group reported a record revenue of 365.9 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, marking a 35% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 23.6 billion RMB, up 34.9% [9][11] - The fourth quarter revenue reached 109 billion RMB, a significant 48.8% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising by 69.4% to 8.3 billion RMB [14] - Xiaomi's electric vehicle business showed strong performance, delivering 136,854 units in 2024, with a revenue contribution of 32.8 billion RMB [15] Group 3 - Gold prices surged, breaking the 3,030 USD per ounce mark, driven by inflation concerns and increased investment demand [19][20] - The domestic gold market also saw significant activity, with A-share gold stocks rising by 4.67% in a single day, reflecting strong market sentiment [20] - Analysts attribute the rising gold prices to ongoing inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and changing expectations for global economic growth [20] Group 4 - Some banks in China have reduced consumer loan rates to as low as 2.49%, indicating a downward trend in personal loan interest rates [22] - The competitive landscape for consumer loans has intensified, with several banks offering promotional rates and incentives to attract borrowers [22] - Regulatory encouragement for banks to increase personal loan offerings is expected to create new growth opportunities while emphasizing the need for effective risk management [22]