Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has led to generally strong commodity prices. A strike at a 344,000 - ton zinc smelter in Peru has affected production and boosted zinc prices. However, the spot market has become increasingly冷清, with a significant decline in spot premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped significantly, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. Although the upward space is limited, the zinc price still maintains a strong trend. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and if social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$17.39/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 65 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 22,220 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 35 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 75 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,090 yuan/ton and closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,030 - 22,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar and the strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter have pushed up zinc prices. However, the spot market is cold, with a significant decline in premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. TC remains stable, and overseas zinc ore shipments are increasing. Although the upward space is limited, the strong trend remains. There is still smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the increase in social inventory will bring downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Supply Overview - In April 2025, global zinc mine production reached 1.0722 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4% [1] - From January to April 2025, global zinc mine production totaled 4.0406 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 2% [1] - Major overseas mines reported varying production levels in Q1, with total output from these mines amounting to 869,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.5% [1][2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in Q1 saw a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [1] Demand Overview - In April, global zinc consumption was 1.1302 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [3] - The downstream consumption index for zinc fell to 56.36% in May, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in demand [3] - The PMI for various downstream industries, including galvanizing and die-casting, showed values below 50, indicating contraction in these sectors [3] Price and Profitability Insights - The main zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange faced pressure at the 23,000 yuan/ton level, with a recent low of 21,660 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic zinc concentrate producers are experiencing significant losses, with import losses reaching up to -572 yuan/ton, leading to a closure of import windows [1][2] - Despite the losses, domestic production profits remain substantial, estimated between 3,900 to 4,600 yuan/ton [1] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of June 24, LME zinc inventories decreased by 49% year-on-year to 123,000 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 18% [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's zinc warehouse receipts fell by 91% year-on-year to 7,471 tons, indicating a tightening supply [4] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory stood at 58,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7% [4] Future Outlook - The combination of increased global zinc concentrate supply and seasonal demand weakness is expected to suppress zinc prices [5] - However, refining zinc prices may find support from smelting costs, import costs, and ongoing inventory reductions [5] - Potential positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations and a gradual recovery from the consumption off-season could lead to a rebound in zinc prices [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc prices face upward pressure again. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the lack of fundamental drivers for price increases. If social inventories continue to rise, it will exert significant downward pressure on zinc prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 130 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 250 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 180 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 100 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 24, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,875 yuan/ton and closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 185,998 lots, an increase of 88,110 lots, and the position was 121,470 lots, an increase of 53,580 lots. The highest price reached 22,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 24, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Transportation in South China may be affected, but the spot market is not strong due to low inventory, and the spot premium continues to decline. Zinc alloy开工率 has dropped significantly, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur. TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. There are still smelting profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains [4] Strategy - Consumption shows a marginal decline, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and zinc price increases lack fundamental drivers. If social inventories continue to increase, it will form significant downward pressure [5]

Group 1 - Zinc main contract has shifted to a weak oscillation after testing the 23,000 yuan/ton resistance three times, with a recent drop to 21,660 yuan/ton, marking a year-low [1] - Global zinc concentrate production in April increased by 9.7% year-on-year to 1.0192 million tons, while domestic production in Q1 rose by 6.42% [1] - Domestic zinc concentrate production profits have rebounded to 3,900-4,600 yuan/ton, leading to an expected increase in operating rates by 5.5 percentage points in June [1] Group 2 - In April, global refined zinc production grew by 1% month-on-month, remaining stable year-on-year, while domestic production faced a decline due to losses [2] - The downstream consumption index for zinc fell by 1.7 percentage points in May, with significant increases in inventories for galvanized products [2] - The automotive sector saw a slight increase in production, but overall demand remains constrained by external tariff policies [3] Group 3 - LME zinc inventory decreased by 48% year-on-year to 126,000 tons, continuing a trend of inventory reduction [3] - The short-term outlook for zinc prices is pressured by increased supply and seasonal demand weakness, but high smelting costs and ongoing inventory depletion may limit price declines [3] - Positive signals from US-China tariff negotiations and a potential recovery from the consumption off-season could improve the supply-demand balance and support a price rebound [3]

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 宏微观偏弱 锌价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价横盘震荡。宏观面看，美联储连续第四 次会议按兵不动，预计今年降息两次，符合预期，但将明 年的降息次数减少了一次。美国直接下场，以伊冲突升级， 市场避险情绪抬升及降息路径偏鹰，美元偏强，压制金属。 国内陆家嘴论坛未有超预期表现，5 月经济数据多数下 行，以旧换新支撑消费走高，持续性存疑。基本面看，5 月锌精矿进口符合预期，全球矿山稳步输出，加工费仍有 上涨空间。炼厂生产积极性尚可，供应回升。进口窗口关 闭后，5 月进口量低于预期，但国内产量恢复弥补进口缺 失量。需求端看，抢出口效应递减，5 月镀锌板出口环比 降幅较大，且仍又回落压力。近期受梅雨季及高位天气拖 累渐显，消费边际走弱，同时山东地区环保检查，镀锌企 业开工回落；五金汽配订单走弱，叠加部分企业因设备原 因产量减少，压铸锌合金企业开工回落；企业复工，氧化 锌开工率微增。终端需求回落，初端企业开工下滑态势不 改，且目前原料库存较高，补库动力不足，锌锭社会库存 小幅增加。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc supply continues to increase, and zinc prices remain under pressure. The zinc market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macroeconomic conditions. It is expected that zinc prices will decline as inventory accumulates [1][4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold profitable short positions and consider adding short positions in distant months when prices rise. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Mine End**: In June, domestic northern mines are expected to complete resumption. Domestic zinc concentrate production continues to release. The import window for zinc concentrates closed in June, but previously locked - in goods still flowed in. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates in June is expected to remain relatively loose, and the processing fees are still on an upward trend [4]. - **Smelting End**: In June, with the supplement of imported ores and the release of domestic mine production, processing fees continued to rise. Smelters had sufficient raw materials and high production enthusiasm. The import window for refined zinc closed in June, but previously locked - in goods still flowed in. It is expected that the supply of domestic refined zinc will increase significantly in June [4]. - **Consumption**: Currently, zinc consumption is in the off - season, but the continuation of the "trade - in" policy in China may still boost consumption to some extent. Attention should be paid to the consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of June 19, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 12 and 1,500 tons from June 16. LME zinc inventory (June 20) was 126,200 tons, a decrease of 4,775 tons from June 13 [4]. - **Price Outlook**: Affected by macro factors, zinc prices may fluctuate. With zinc consumption in the off - season and no improvement in downstream new orders, the downstream procurement intensity is expected to weaken. On the supply side, domestic smelters are actively producing, and with the inflow of imported goods, the supply of refined zinc increased significantly in June. The domestic social inventory has slightly increased this week. It is expected that zinc prices will decline as inventory continues to accumulate [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - sided**: Hold profitable short positions and consider adding short positions in distant months when prices rise [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Market Data No specific content provided in the text other than the title. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - **Zinc Ore Supply** - **Production**: From January to April, global zinc concentrate production was 3936,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%. Overseas production was 2741,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.23%; China's production was 1,195,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In May 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 325,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.17%. In June 2025, it is expected to be 342,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.42% [24]. - **Import**: In May 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 491,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 2,204,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46%. In June, it is expected that the import volume of zinc ores will still be high [32]. - **Total Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrates was about 5,462,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.74%; from January to May, the cumulative total supply was 23,901,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.99% [35]. - **Processing Fees**: In June, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 3,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,050 yuan/ton compared to December 2024; the monthly processing fee for imported Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 55 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 95 US dollars/dry ton compared to December 2024. On June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 3,600 yuan/ton, and that for imported Zn50 zinc concentrates was 45 US dollars/ton [38]. - **Global Refined Zinc Production** - In 2024, the annual refined zinc production was 13,620,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.01%; the annual demand was 13,647,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.32%. The annual refined zinc shortage was 27,600 tons. From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production was 4,425,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 105,500 tons or 2.33%. The consumption was 4,274,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 63,900 tons or 1.47%. The cumulative surplus was 151,100 tons, and the surplus was gradually expanding [42]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply** - **Production**: In May, the domestic smelter operating rate was 90.62%. In May, domestic refined zinc production was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. It is expected that the production in June will increase by 7.43% month - on - month to 590,200 tons [45][46]. - **Import**: In May 2025, the import of refined zinc was 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36%, and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.66%. In June, it is expected that the domestic supply of refined zinc will increase significantly [48]. - **Consumption - Related Data** - No detailed consumption data is provided in the text, but it mentions that attention should be paid to the consumption in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors, and the "trade - in" policy may boost consumption [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: As of the end of May, China's broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, net cash investment was 30.64 billion yuan [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical events had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of social inventories. In terms of fundamentals, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous marginal strengthening of zinc ore spot TC. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the production increase situation in the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden worry of contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to the low level of social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting the near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. In terms of strategy, short positions can still be considered for far - month contracts when prices are high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In March 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. The international long - term TC price of zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared with the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was seriously overestimated, and the trend of marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to April, China's cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 1.7137 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.5%. The increase in imported ore volume boosted the processing fees. As of June 13, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $53/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,600 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc output was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, output is gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to April 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 120,000 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: At low prices, downstream enterprises made excessive purchases to replenish inventories, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount of zinc was reported at a discount of $22.95/ton. Due to the low level of social inventories, the spot premium was high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 6, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 11,086 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

有色金属周报(锌) 弱势格局依旧，沪锌维持空配 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中东紧张局势升级，地缘风险加剧，且美国关税风 | | | | | 波再起，需求不确定性增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。由于内外比值不佳，进口窗口持 | | | | | 续关闭，进口锌矿及港口转口贸易锌矿报价有限，炼厂以 | | | | | 采购国产矿为主。近期国内冶炼厂和贸易商成交了三季度 | 上周随着锌价跌破22,000元/吨关 | | | | 装期的Bisha锌矿，货量为1万吨，成交TC为50美元/干吨 | 口，下游逢低补库情绪有所显现， | | | | 左右。南美锌矿三季度集装箱报盘在70美元/干吨左右。 | 锌价后半周出现一定反弹，但终 | | |  | 成本利润：西南产区逐步进入平水期，电价下移，冶炼成 | 端订单并无明显好转，淡季影响 | | | | 本减少，加之TC稳中向好，硫酸和小金属利润亦处于相 | 下企业看跌心态较重，加之供给 | 偏弱整理。 | | | | 端增量趋势明显，库存累库预期 | | | ...

有色金属周报(锌) 基本面支撑有限，维持空配 2025年6月9日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：特朗普关税政策再度生变，市场对金属关税政策担 | | | | | 忧上升，避险情绪再度增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。受进口锌矿持续到货补充，国内 | | | | | 炼厂加工费持续上调，其中内蒙古、东北、广西等地区受 | | | | | 进口矿/炼厂检修因素影响，加工费涨幅较为明显；但随 | 随着进口锌矿不断到港，国内矿 | | | | 着港口锌矿库存明显下滑，部分新增炼厂产能开始产出， | 山亦稳步复产，炼厂原料库存增 | | | | 对锌矿需求旺盛，后续TC回升速度将放缓。 | 至27.72万吨，加工费持续上行带 | | |  | 成本利润：锌价回落后区间盘整，矿端对TC继续上调意 | 动炼厂利润不断好转，供给端增 | | | | 愿不高，预计6月调涨空间相对有限，国产TC或环比上调 | 量预期较强 ...

数据显示，6月9日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价22590.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（21910.00元/吨）升 水680.00元/吨。 （6月9日）今日全国锌价格一览 表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 型 | | | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22640元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | | 吨 | | | | | 火炬 0#锌 | 22850元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/金华 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 红鹭 0#锌 | 22700元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/温州 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 飞龙 0#锌 | 22700元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/台州 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22600元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市 | | | 吨 | ...