智通财经5月10日电，中国社会科学院学部委员、原副院长高培勇今天在中国资本市场改革与发展暨 《中国资本市场的理论逻辑》（十卷本）理论研讨会上表示，随着经济发展，预期因素影响增大，预期 管理愈发重要。"中国股市波动背后的实质是预期和信心问题，已成为主导资本市场变化的关键因 素。"高培勇认为，资本市场发展应将预期因素纳入分析、监测体系，把预期管理作为监管重点，落实 到体制机制层面。他建议，当前资本市场制度改革不仅要注重供需平衡调控，更要重视预期管理和引 导，实现稳预期、强信心与稳股市、稳经济的相互促进和良性循环。 (上海证券报) 中国社会科学院学部委员高培勇：资本市场发展应将预期因素纳入分析监测体系 把预期管理作为监管 重点落实到体制机制层面 ...

特朗普低估了中国，也高估了自己。现在，中美围绕关税战的首次接触正在进行中，特朗普还没来得及庆祝，就听到了一个坏消息。美联储主席鲍威尔宣 布，经过两天的议息会，决定维持现有利率不变。同一时间，华尔街最新数据出炉，美元指数继续下跌，从年初到现在已经跌去9%。 懂王的计划 这些事情乍一看，不像印巴冲突、中美关税战那么炸裂，但实际上，特朗普上台后的一系列内政外交政策，都是围绕美联储、美元指数展开。特朗普自以 为，他有一个完美的计划，能在促使"制造业回流"的同时挽救摇摇欲坠的美国经济。但因为中国的强势反击，和鲍威尔的不动如山，特朗普彻底玩砸了。 让我们把时间推回到2024年12月，特朗普刚当选不久，还没有正式上任。他在谈到美国沉重的联邦债务时，就在对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储降息。从理论上 来说，美联储降息，等于美元放水，政府能通过更低的利率借钱，要支付的利息成本也更低。虽然这会导致美元出现贬值，但这也会增强美国出口商品的竞 争力。 同时，特朗普将通过"关税政策"对世界各国施压，要求他们解决和美国的贸易差额，不管是把企业搬迁到美国来生产，还是增加对美国商品的进口，又或是 大幅增持美债，都能增加美国政府的进项，手里有更多的钱 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in medium to long-term liquidity to the market [2] - The policy rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, which is anticipated to lead to a slight decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), thereby reducing the burden of existing mortgage rates for homebuyers [2][6] - The reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, with the rate for first-time homebuyers over five years dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, is expected to stimulate demand in the housing market [2][6] Group 2 - The stock market did not experience a significant rise following the central bank's actions, indicating that the previously anticipated benefits of the rate cuts have already been priced in by the market [3][5] - The stock market is seen as a leading indicator of policy changes, reflecting market sentiment more rapidly than the housing market, which tends to react more slowly [5] - The measures taken by the central bank are aimed not only at stabilizing the stock and housing markets but also at reducing financing costs for the real economy, thereby enhancing refinancing effects [3][6] Group 3 - The decline in LPR is expected to lead to lower rates for existing mortgages, alleviating financial pressure on homeowners and indirectly boosting confidence in the housing market [6] - The central bank's actions are viewed as friendly towards the housing market, with expectations of continued supportive policies in the future [6] - The adjustment period for both the stock and housing markets is expected to shorten under the influence of these favorable policies, with market performance increasingly tied to demand recovery and improvements in economic fundamentals [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market, expectations, and the real estate sector, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][3][5] - The meeting emphasized "expectation management" and highlighted the importance of capital markets, indicating a proactive approach to policy responses amid trade and financial tensions [3][4] - Analysts believe that the policies introduced are likely to improve market risk appetite and liquidity, with a positive outlook for the A-share market to continue its recovery trend observed since early April [2][4][5] Group 2 - Specific measures announced include a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy rates, and a 0.5 percentage point decrease in the reserve requirement ratio [5][6] - The focus on attracting long-term funds into the market was reiterated, which is expected to boost investor confidence and stabilize the capital market [8][10] - The introduction of eight incremental policies aimed at expanding the long-term investment scope of insurance funds and adjusting regulatory rules to support capital market stability was highlighted [10][11]

图片来源/新华社 胡敏说，这次中央政治局会议专门强调了党员干部要"迎难而上、主动作为，树立和践行正确政绩观"。这一要求放在当前全党正在开展深入贯彻中央八项 规定精神学习教育和应对当前风险挑战的双重背景下，意味深长。中央强调各级领导干部要"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，那么，党员干部是否有 勇有谋、能否迎难而上、能否真正解决实际问题，而不是畏难踟蹰，或满足于表面文章，正是对政绩观的切实检验。对各级干部来说，必须跳出惯性思 维、既往路径的桎梏，敢于、善于用改革创新的办法真正解决复杂问题应对复杂局面，才能确保以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定 性，才能打开事业发展的新局面。 总 监 制丨王 辉 车海刚 监 制丨陈 波 王 彧 杨玉洋 胡敏分析，去年末中央经济工作会议和今年两会已经对全年经济工作做出明确部署，坚持以稳中求进、以进促稳、守正创新，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策等为工作基调。随着一揽子增量政策加力施效，今年一季度我国经济实现5.4%的超预期增长的好成绩。但进入4月份以来，我国发展的外部环境急剧变 化，随着特朗普政府对华实施高额关税等极限施压，我国进出口形势将面临更大冲击，我国沿海地区一大批 ...

4月9日，美国对中国"对等关税"生效，同时宣布暂停其他国家和地区的"对等关税"90天。 "对等关 税"的本质不是贸易，而是博弈。 在中国宣布反制"对等关税"之后，其他国家的态度也在发生变化。英国表示，要与中国建立更深层次 的伙伴关系，而非设置新的障碍。欧盟表示，愿同中方推进各领域高层对话，深化经贸、绿色经济、气 候变化等领域互利合作。日本表示，在美日贸易谈判上不打算做出重大让步，也不会急于达成协议。 美国挥舞关税大棒加速了全球贸易秩序的重构，也对美元体系为核心的货币秩序形成重要影响，这对中 国而言是重要的历史机遇。 近期的政策动向也印证了外交是当前的头等大事。 "对等关税"落地的4月9日，中央周边工作会议在北 京召开，明确要"聚焦构建周边命运共同体"。 与非美国家的外交成果决定了政策是对冲短期出口下 滑，还是应对长期外部风险。 中国与非美国家的外交关系越巩固，美国单方面加征关税对中国出口的 冲击越小，博弈的天平也会进一步朝着中国倾斜，对应的稳增长压力也越小。反之，超常规的政策"组 合拳"可能加快落地。 4月14日至18日，总书记对越南、马来西亚和柬埔寨进行国事访问，取得了丰硕的成果。中越发布 《关于持续深化全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" on China's economy and the importance of diplomatic relations and timely policy responses to mitigate the effects of these tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic work is prioritized to counter tariff impacts, with recent visits by Chinese leaders to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia resulting in significant agreements to deepen strategic partnerships [4]. - The response from other countries to China's diplomatic overtures has been positive, with the UK, EU, and Japan expressing intentions to strengthen ties rather than impose new barriers [3]. Group 2: Policy Measures - Timely reserve policies are being implemented to manage expectations and liquidity, with a focus on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets [5][6]. - The government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations, with recent meetings highlighting the need for proactive policy measures to positively influence market sentiment [6][7]. Group 3: Support for Trade and Employment - Targeted support for foreign trade enterprises is crucial, especially for small and medium-sized businesses facing challenges due to tariff impacts [8]. - Policies are being developed to stabilize foreign trade and employment, including tax incentives and financial support for affected companies [8][9]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Services - Expanding service consumption is seen as a way to absorb employment pressures from foreign trade challenges, aligning with consumer trends [9]. - The government is actively promoting service consumption through various initiatives, recognizing its potential for significant growth [9]. Group 5: Liquidity Management - The issuance of special government bonds is set to peak, coinciding with a period of potential monetary policy easing, which may include interest rate cuts [10][12]. - The government is preparing for a liquidity expansion phase, with expectations of increased financial support for various sectors [12]. Group 6: Incremental Policy Adjustments - Incremental policies will be adjusted based on diplomatic relations and export performance, with a focus on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [14][15]. - The government aims to implement policies that support specific groups, such as the unemployed and low-income families, to boost consumption [14].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，扩内需信号进一步明确，主要涉及就业、地产、股市、服务消费等。 1 、高层定调：总理在三次会议或调研上，均高度关注经济问题。 1 ） 4 月 15 日， 总理在北京调研 消费及地产相关内容。 2 ） 4 月 17 日， 总理主持国务院专题学习，以预期管理为主题，提出要"要 讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影 响。 要把握政策力度，必要时敢于打破常规 "。 3 ） 4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会，研究稳就业 稳经济问题。提出要" 锚定经济社会发展目标 ，加大逆周期调节力度"。 2 、股市楼市： 1 ） 4 月 15 日 ，总理在北京调研时提出，"当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场 仍有很大的发展空间"。 2 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常会，"要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产 市场平稳健康发展"。 3 、消费及就业 ： 1 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常 ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上周首席视点认为中国风险资产的护城河已经稳固，这是金融监管部门运用"类平准基金"纠偏市场失灵 后呈现的积极效果。面对超预期的外部冲击，单纯依靠金融的手段显然是不够的。从宏观的视角看，资 产价格的走势由经济增长率、无风险收益率与风险溢价决定，当经济基本面短期无法改变的时候，政策 的积极操作是否超预期就成为投资者明确的期待。对政府来讲，政策的出台需要时间，政策出现效果也 需要时间，也就是政策受到时间的约束。怎么解决这个时间的约束？ 答案是预期管理，政策的预期引 导在发生重要的变化。 一、A股走势反映了政策明确的预期 毫无疑问，近期投资者是希望政府立马出台超预期的刺激政策的。何为超预期？就是在2025年政府工作 报告积极施政的基础上立马采取扩充赤字，甚至直接降准降息或者发放消费券等立竿见影提升需求的措 施。这些激进的建议在去年三季度市场不彰的当口曾经被提及，事后证明这与决策者运筹帷幄的思路是 不一致的。 1、政府工作报告未雨绸缪 这里需要再一次明确指出，对于或许算是"意外冲击"的关税的应对中，政府工作报告是做了充分的准备 的。回顾一下报告，报告中提及"世界百年变局加速演进， ...

Core Insights - The U.S. economy appears to exhibit a surprising level of resilience despite the significant policy changes under the Trump administration, with key economic indicators such as employment and inflation not showing the expected severe impacts [1][2] - The long-term effects of Trump's policies, particularly tariffs, may not yet be fully reflected in economic data, suggesting that the current economic stability could be a temporary illusion [1][3] Economic Data Analysis - Employment growth has remained steady at approximately 173,000 jobs per month over the past two months, which is consistent with the previous six months, while the unemployment rate has only increased by 0.1 percentage points [2] - Federal spending has increased by $154 billion compared to the same period last year, contrary to Trump's initial claims of saving $2 trillion in federal expenditures [2] - The government aimed to reduce its workforce by 10% (around 240,000 employees), but only managed to cut about 10,000 positions by March [2] Tariff Impact - The effects of Trump's tariffs are expected to be delayed, as most tariffs take several months to impact consumer prices, with steel and aluminum tariffs implemented in mid-March not yet fully reflected in pricing [3][4] - The presence of inventory buffers and preemptive stockpiling by businesses has further postponed the visible effects of tariffs on the market [3] Market Reactions - The large scale of the U.S. economy has diluted the immediate impacts of Trump's policies, leading to fluctuations in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, as investor sentiment adjusts to policy changes [4] - The complexity of the feedback mechanisms resulting from Trump's policies, such as unexpected declines in consumer prices and oil prices, indicates a multifaceted response from the market [4] - Ongoing trade negotiations and policy fluctuations are likely to lead to more significant market volatility, necessitating careful management of market expectations by businesses [4]