Core Viewpoint - The future direction of the RMB exchange rate is crucial, with a focus on preventing excessive appreciation to avoid impacting exports. Stability remains the key theme [1][7]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate has a long-term foundation for stable appreciation due to factors such as the new phase of "two-way investment," diversification of trade partners, and improvements in labor productivity [1][4]. - The RMB's strength or weakness directly influences the motivation for Chinese enterprises to invest abroad, with a stable RMB reducing exchange rate risks for overseas investments [5][6]. Group 2: Changes in China's Economic Structure - China is transitioning to a "two-way investment" phase, balancing foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), with ODI surpassing FDI since 2015 [4][5]. - By 2024, China's ODI is projected to grow by 8.4%, reaching a global share of 11.9%, maintaining a position among the top three globally for 13 consecutive years [4]. Group 3: Trade Partner Diversification - China's trade concentration is decreasing, with exports to the top three trading partners (U.S., EU, ASEAN) dropping from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, indicating enhanced economic resilience [6][7]. - The share of exports to "Belt and Road" countries has increased from under 25% in 2013 to 47% in 2024, reflecting a significant shift in trade dynamics [6]. Group 4: Global Currency Landscape - The international status and appreciation potential of the RMB are strengthening amid challenges to the dollar's credibility and a trend towards diversification of global central bank reserves [8][9]. - The share of the dollar in global official foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 61.5% in 2020 to an expected 56.32% by 2025, indicating a shift in global currency preferences [8]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Fundamentals - Continuous improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, such as rising labor productivity and a shift towards high-end manufacturing and technology exports, supports the RMB's long-term appreciation [9][10]. - The RMB is considered undervalued based on purchasing power parity, with estimates suggesting it could be closer to a 1:3.5 ratio rather than the current market rate of approximately 7.1 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is essential for China to respond to external shocks and enhance its international competitiveness, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3] Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - Since its initiation in 2009, the RMB has made continuous progress in trade settlement, commodity pricing, international financial transactions, and official reserves, yet its global usage remains disproportionate to China's economic scale and influence [3][6] - The sixth Central Financial Work Conference emphasizes building a strong RMB, indicating a new phase for RMB internationalization supported by top-level design and strategic necessity [3][4] Group 2: External Challenges and Opportunities - The increasing uncertainty in the global trade environment, including the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. since 2025, adds pressure on foreign trade, making RMB cross-border usage crucial for reducing exchange rate risks and enhancing pricing power in commodities [4][5] - The global trend of "de-dollarization" accelerated by the weaponization of the dollar and unilateral sanctions presents an opportunity for the RMB to play a leading role [5][6] Group 3: Support Factors for RMB Internationalization - The continuous expansion of China's import and export scale and diversified market layout provide greater space for RMB cross-border payment settlements [6][7] - The rising proportion of RMB usage in energy and mineral trade, along with improvements in the cross-border credit environment, supports the potential for increased RMB usage in global credit markets [6][7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - Recommendations include expanding RMB usage in commodity pricing and settlement, enhancing cross-border payment infrastructure, and promoting RMB settlement in developing countries and strategic partners [8] - Key measures also involve improving capital account convertibility, market-oriented RMB exchange rates, and increasing gold reserves to bolster the international credibility of the RMB [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese yuan has become the world's second-largest trade financing currency, indicating a shift away from the dominance of the US dollar in global trade and finance [1][9][11] - The rise of the yuan is driven by its ability to meet the global demand for a reliable currency, providing security, stability, and convenience in transactions [3][5][7] Group 1: Yuan's Competitive Advantages - The yuan's ascent is attributed to its ability to address key pain points in global trade, such as high costs, significant risks, and dependency on third-party systems [18][25] - Direct settlement in yuan can save businesses 1%-3% in exchange costs, enhancing profit margins significantly [20][25] - The yuan's non-hegemonic nature allows countries to avoid the risks associated with US dollar dominance, such as financial sanctions and asset freezes [22][25] Group 2: Decline of Dollar Dominance - The decline of the dollar's status is not due to the yuan "stealing" its position, but rather the erosion of trust in the dollar as the US continues to print money to manage its debt [9][11][16] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to a 30-year low of 56.32%, reflecting a collective judgment by central banks that holding too much dollar-denominated assets poses greater risks than rewards [11][16] - Traditional US allies are also reducing their holdings of US debt, indicating a loss of confidence in the dollar's reliability [16] Group 3: Challenges to Yuan's Global Acceptance - For the yuan to become a mainstream global currency, it must overcome challenges such as the need for a more open financial market and a diverse range of financial products [29][31] - The yuan's status as a safe-haven currency needs to be strengthened, especially during global economic turmoil [33] - A shift in global perception towards "non-hegemonic currencies" will take time, as countries adapt to a multi-currency system [35] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next 3-5 years are critical for the yuan to solidify its position in key sectors like energy and manufacturing, with an expected increase in its settlement ratio [37][39] - Over the next 5-10 years, the yuan's share in global foreign exchange reserves could rise to over 20%, enhancing its influence in international financial rules and commodity pricing [41] - The long-term vision includes a multi-currency system where the yuan, dollar, and euro coexist, with the yuan's role supported by economic strength and trust rather than hegemony [45][47]

Core Viewpoint - The diversification of payment systems and currencies has become an irreversible trend in the context of increasing globalization and diversification of global trade, with a focus on enhancing trade volume and settlement in Renminbi among China and developing countries [2][6]. Group 1: International Trade and Currency Settlement - Following the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system, many countries have recognized the risks of over-reliance on the dollar and are seeking alternative payment systems, with China actively promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [2]. - Since the launch of the cross-border trade Renminbi settlement pilot in 2009, the internationalization of the Renminbi has progressed significantly, with China signing bilateral currency swap agreements with 32 countries and regions, totaling over 4.5 trillion Renminbi by November 2025 [2][3]. - The Renminbi has become the third-largest payment currency globally, according to the People's Bank of China [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Payment Systems - The introduction of the digital Renminbi and the establishment of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in 2015 have provided technological support for the transformation of settlement systems, with CIPS expected to account for over 10% of global payments by 2027 [3]. - As of mid-2025, CIPS has covered 189 countries and regions, processing transactions amounting to 90.19 trillion Renminbi [3]. Group 3: Bilateral Agreements and Trade Settlements - China and Russia have nearly completely transitioned to using their own currencies for trade settlements, reducing dependence on the dollar and mitigating risks from sanctions and currency fluctuations [3]. - In the BRICS nations, 30% of trade transactions are now conducted using the Renminbi, while Saudi Arabia's Renminbi settlement for oil exports is projected to reach 45% by September 2025 [3]. - Argentina has announced plans to use the Renminbi for imports from China, and BHP has agreed to settle 30% of iron ore transactions in Renminbi by October 2025 [4]. Group 4: Global Trends and Future Directions - The trend towards a non-dollar settlement system is seen as a collaborative effort among countries, with a focus on mutual benefits rather than a direct "de-dollarization" approach [6]. - Other countries, including members of BRICS, are also taking steps to mitigate dollar risks, such as the establishment of local currency financing tools and alternative payment systems [9]. - Increasing trade volume is essential for the establishment of a credible payment system, as the legitimacy of any payment system is built on substantial trade activity [10].

近年来，俄罗斯在美国和西方的制裁压力下经济困境加剧，金融制裁一波接一波，导致俄罗斯的SWIFT（环球银行金融电信协会）支付系统遭到切断，外汇 储备被冻结超过3000亿美元，卢布汇率大幅贬值。2022年2月24日冲突爆发后，华盛顿和布鲁塞尔同步采取行动，导致俄罗斯银行无法进入国际支付系统。 面对如此困境，普京政府迫切需要找到新的支付途径，否则贸易活动将受到严重影响。在这个时候，俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌林娜和她的团队决定转向东方， 特别是人民币，作为破解西方封锁的新路径。2022年3月，中俄之间首笔能源贸易以人民币结算，俄罗斯石油公司直接使用人民币定价，绕过了美元支付和 汇率转换的费用。 这一决策并非临时起意，俄罗斯央行早已意识到，中国是俄罗斯最大的贸易伙伴之一，两国之间的贸易联系紧密，人民币作为结算货币在中国的国际地位稳 固，并且具有较高的国际认受性。因此，使用人民币不仅能避免美元体系的制裁，还能有效应对西方的封锁。2023年，在约翰内斯堡举行的金砖国家峰会 上，纳比乌林娜代表俄罗斯参与讨论本币结算问题，推动了人民币在俄罗斯外汇储备中的比例从15%提升至25%。2024年1月，金砖国家扩容，埃及、伊朗 和阿联酋等国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Bank has released a "Foreign Trade Financial White Paper" outlining 17 specific measures to support foreign trade enterprises in enhancing their global presence, aligning with the national strategy of "expanding high-level opening-up" [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Support Initiatives - The bank has established a cross-border financial product system centered around Qingyin Huitong, Qingyin Trade Loan, Qingyin Golden Bridge, and Qingyin Huitong, serving over 5,000 foreign trade enterprises with an international settlement volume exceeding $20 billion and cross-border RMB settlement exceeding 50 billion [1]. - Qingdao Bank aims to integrate financial support for stabilizing foreign trade into its strategic planning, enhancing trade facilitation, and providing comprehensive support for enterprises to "go global" [1][3]. Group 2: Regional Focus and Industry Specialization - The bank focuses on Shandong's foreign trade industry characteristics, particularly in machinery, agricultural products, and textiles, implementing a "one place, one policy" service model [1][9]. - It is developing a comprehensive financial system for bulk commodities, including innovative tools like digital warehouse receipts and specialized shipping financial products to foster competitive regional foreign trade industry clusters [1][12]. Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - Qingdao Bank has introduced a series of services aimed at reducing comprehensive costs for enterprises, enhancing funding efficiency, and improving risk response capabilities [2][16]. - Specific measures include fee reductions, cross-border financing price subsidies, and the promotion of specialized credit financing products to help enterprises convert transaction flows into credit resources [17][16]. Group 4: Innovation in Financial Services - The bank is committed to innovating financial service mechanisms and enhancing its cross-border financial service capabilities through the launch of the CIPS direct reference system [1][7]. - It is also exploring digital settlement solutions to support new foreign trade business models, such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses [17].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "expanding high-level openness" and advancing the internationalization of the RMB, highlighting the need for deep reforms to avoid crises associated with financial opening [1][2][4]. Group 1: High-Level Openness and Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" significantly prioritizes "expanding high-level openness," reflecting China's determination to promote reform and development through openness [2]. - The plan aims to enhance the level of capital account openness and promote RMB internationalization, indicating that higher openness can drive greater reform [2][4]. - Financial opening differs from trade opening due to its market volatility and multiple equilibria, necessitating more stringent accompanying reforms [4][5]. Group 2: Lessons from Emerging Markets - Historical crises in emerging markets often stem from delayed reforms following financial opening, as seen in the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s [5]. - The lack of timely domestic reforms, such as rigid exchange rate mechanisms and weak corporate governance, contributed to the vulnerability of financial systems in these regions [5]. Group 3: Six Key Reforms for High-Level Openness - **Strengthening Domestic Circulation**: The plan emphasizes the importance of a robust domestic market as a strategic foundation for modernization, advocating for increased consumption and investment [9][10]. - **Enhancing Technological Innovation**: The plan calls for a focus on technological modernization and innovation to counteract external pressures and improve self-sufficiency [11]. - **Improving Property Rights Protection**: Clear and strong property rights are essential for attracting both domestic and foreign capital, with a focus on fair competition and intellectual property rights [12]. - **Elevating Macro Governance Efficiency**: The plan stresses the need for effective market and government interaction, enhancing fiscal and monetary policy coordination [13][14]. - **Modernizing Corporate Governance**: The establishment of a modern corporate governance framework is crucial for addressing economic challenges and fostering competitive markets [15]. - **Consolidating Capital Market Functions**: The development of a high-quality capital market is vital for supporting new productive forces and ensuring the benefits of development reach the populace [16]. Group 4: Conclusion on Reform and Openness - The relationship between openness and reform must be carefully managed, ensuring that reforms keep pace with the demands of increased openness to avoid potential setbacks [17].

文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 11月20日，SWIFT发布10月全球支付报告，人民币占比仅2.47%、跌至全球第六，但中方压根没慌，反而透着从容，这消失的份额真没了？美国切断 SWIFT的打压，真能拦住人民币？ 2.47%是数据陷阱 环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT）2025年10月的数据公布，人民币全球支付占比从之前的高位直接掉到2.47%，要是扣除欧元区内的国际支付，占比只剩 1.87%，排名还得再降一位到第七。 反观其他货币，美元以46.71%的份额稳坐第一，欧元23.98%紧随其后，英镑7.82%排第三，这数据乍一看，好像真能说明美元霸权越来越稳，人民币国际 化遇上了大麻烦。 但只要结合中国的贸易体量琢磨琢磨，就知道这里头不对劲，中国现在是140多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，2025年进出口总额还在世界第一梯队里。 这么大的贸易规模，要是真只靠2.47%的支付占比撑着，那巨额的贸易顺差是怎么结算的？ 其实答案很简单，SWIFT的数据本来就不是全球贸易结算的全景图，顶多算是美国主导下的局部账本。 全球南方国家早就对这套系统没了信任，谁也不想自己的钱被人天天盯着，更怕哪天地缘政治一紧张，自己的资产 ...

Core Insights - The launch of a compliant stablecoin pegged to the RMB is imminent, marking a significant step in the internationalization of the RMB and presenting a critical opportunity for wealth recognition [1][4] - The reduction of equity distribution from 1:1 to a lower ratio signifies a shift from inclusive wealth opportunities to a more selective process, highlighting the importance of early participation [1][4] - The market's enthusiastic subscription reflects a collective consensus among high-cognition groups, recognizing the dual benefits of RMB internationalization and digital economy [3][4] Market Dynamics - A surge in subscription volume, increasing by 15 times within a day, indicates a growing awareness and action among those who understand the opportunity [1][3] - The impending open testing phase is expected to lead to an exponential increase in participants, creating a clear divide based on cognitive awareness [4] - The transition from simple identity verification to a more complex assessment involving wealth cognition and asset compliance will significantly raise participation barriers, potentially excluding those with insufficient understanding [4] Strategic Implications - The stablecoin is positioned as a core vehicle for RMB digitalization, serving as a bridge between real assets and the digital economy [3] - The upcoming changes in equity rights and participation criteria will act as a final filter for wealth opportunities, emphasizing the necessity for timely action based on cognitive readiness [4] - The global context, including U.S. legislative support for USD stablecoins and the EU's regulatory framework, underscores the competitive landscape for RMB stablecoins [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued 45 billion offshore RMB central bank bills, marking a record single issuance for the year, interpreted as a measure to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and counteract short-selling activities in the offshore market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Bills and Market Impact - The issuance of 45 billion RMB central bank bills removed nearly 5% of RMB liquidity from the offshore market, significantly increasing short-term funding costs, with the 3-month HIBOR rising by 106 basis points to 4.56% [3]. - The operation sent a clear policy signal that the central bank will not allow a unilateral depreciation of the RMB, with historical data indicating potential appreciation of 0.8% to 1.2% within a month following similar past issuances [4]. - Following the issuance, the short positions in offshore RMB decreased by 37%, reaching the lowest level since 2022, indicating a strong deterrent effect on short-selling activities [5]. Group 2: Policy Implications and Strategic Goals - The PBOC aims to enhance the international appeal of RMB assets by regularly issuing central bank bills, with RMB bond issuance in Hong Kong increasing by 48% year-on-year [6]. - The central bank's approach balances short-term stability with long-term flexibility, as evidenced by a reduction in the volatility of the CFETS RMB exchange rate index [7]. - The dual-track system for bill issuance, requiring institutions to submit trading strategies, aims to prevent malicious short-selling, while enhanced monitoring of abnormal fund flows has led to a significant increase in the detection of illegal forex trading cases [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Effects - Export companies are experiencing reduced foreign exchange risk, with a 1% appreciation of the RMB potentially increasing annual profits by approximately 12 million RMB [9]. - The offshore RMB funding pool has expanded to over 1.8 trillion RMB, with new financial products attracting significant investment [10]. - Foreign capital inflows into A-shares have accelerated, with net purchases exceeding 90 billion RMB in November alone, driven by a stabilized RMB exchange rate [11]. Group 4: Global Perspective and Future Outlook - The PBOC has developed a unique policy toolkit to manage exchange rates, contrasting with traditional methods used by other central banks [12]. - China is navigating the "impossible trinity" of capital mobility, exchange rate stability, and monetary policy independence through offshore central bank bills [12]. - Predictions suggest that the RMB exchange rate will stabilize within a range of 7.15 to 7.25 against the USD by the end of 2025, with potential challenges to the 7.0 mark if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [13]. - The completion of deposit rate marketization reforms by 2026 is expected to enhance the pricing power of RMB assets [13]. - The expansion of digital RMB cross-border payment trials may create a new paradigm for exchange rate stability tools [14].