| 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | （％） | | 大盘指数 | 0.24 | 0.79 | -1.82 | | 中盘指数 | 0.81 | 1.52 | -5.06 | | 小盘指数 | 0.95 | 2.03 | -0.55 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | 文娱用品Ⅱ | 4.93 | 12.3 | 10.44 | | 商用车 | 3.73 | 1.53 | 0.88 | | 化学制药 | 3.7 | 15.03 | 16.08 | | 教育 | 3.34 | 2.02 | -13.9 | | 金属新材料 | 3.21 | 6.5 | 7.35 | | 行业跌幅 | 昨日跌 | 1 个月跌 | 6 个月跌 | | 乘用车Ⅱ | -1.27 | -1.87 | 5.17 | | 专业连锁Ⅱ | -1.13 | 2.57 | -6.42 | | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名 ...

著名经济学家宋清辉从监管等角度建议，中国应积极与各国监管机构合作，建立有效的反洗钱、反恐 怖融资机制，确保数字人民币跨境交易合规性，防止其被用于非法活动。事实上，数字人民币跨境交 易涉及不同国家的法律，需明确法律管辖权，建立有效的争议解决机制。在保障用户隐私前提下，还 须注意与各国监管机构建立必要的信息共享机制，以便开展有效监管。 上海金融与发展实验室特聘研究员邓宇表示，在新形势下如何加快推动CBDC研发与应用场景扩大，在国际竞争 中获得更多话语权，是许多新兴经济体面临的共同问题。目前在CBDC跨境支付全球统一监管，CBDC与当前国际 货币体系融合或竞争，以及隐私保护、互操作性访问等关键问题仍待解决。 邓宇补充说，迄今为止，金融稳定委员会（FSB）、世界经济论坛（WEF）、国际清算银行（BIS）、国际货币基 金组织（IMF）等国际金融组织，及全球主要央行对于CBDC跨境互联存在的技术风险、治理风险和监管问题仍处 初步探索阶段。未来需继续深化国际合作，扩大CBDC跨境互联测试的深度与广度，将CBDC跨境应用与国际监管 纳入议程。他并指："要实现CBDC有序发展和良性竞争，势必要开展国际监管合作，避免CBDC'碎 ...

具体来看，在这8轮增持中，央行在2022年11月开启的一轮增持黄金持续最久，直至2024年4月， 连续18个月里共增持黄金316.01吨。而在2015年6月至2016年4月，央行此轮增持黄金最多，11 个 月里累计增持黄金754.26吨。 "未来，央行增持黄金仍是大方向。主要原因是我国国际储备中的黄金储备占比偏低，截至5月底， 我国官方储备资产中黄金的占比为7%，明显低于15%左右的全球平均水平。" 王青进一步表示，黄 金作为全球广泛接受的最终支付手段，央行增持黄金能够增强主权货币的信用，为推进人民币国际化 创造有利条件。 虽然我国央行自去年年底重启增持黄金，致使黄金储备数量连续增加，但对比单月增持规模，近月呈 现购买力度缩小的情况，尤其是过去的5月份，央行该月增持规模为1.87吨，下滑至2吨以下，为本 轮重启增持黄金的首次。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，5月关税战降温，避险需求弱化导致国际金价出现小幅调整，当 月央行继续增持黄金，这意味着从控制成本角度出发暂停增持黄金的必要性下降，而从优化国际储备 结构角度增持黄金的需求上升。 从央行公布的相关数据来看，1999年我国黄金储备数量仅为394.08吨，当时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, signaling a strategic adjustment in international reserve structure amid global changes [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of May, China's gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month [1]. - The continuous increase in gold reserves aligns with market expectations, reflecting new changes in the global political and economic landscape [1][4]. - The international gold price has shown strong performance, with spot gold surpassing $3,310 per ounce on June 9, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Prices - The price of gold jewelry in China has seen a decline, with some brands offering prices as low as 985 yuan per gram [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold - The World Gold Council indicates that gold may remain one of the few resilient assets in a stagflation environment, with potential for future price increases [4]. - The low proportion of gold in China's international reserves (7% as of May 2025) compared to the global average of 15% suggests a continued trend of increasing gold reserves by the central bank [4]. - The central bank's strategy to increase gold reserves is also aimed at enhancing the credibility of the sovereign currency and promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [4].

Core Insights - The financial sector is emerging as a new growth point in China-Brazil cooperation, with Brazil's Lula government seeking to strengthen trade and investment ties with China, including plans to issue sovereign bonds in the Chinese market as early as this year [1][3] - Brazil's Deputy Finance Minister Dario Durigan indicated that Brazil plans to issue sustainable development bonds in the US and Europe, as well as Panda bonds in China, reflecting a diversification of financial partnerships and a reduction of reliance on traditional Western financial systems [1][3] - The issuance of Panda bonds, which are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, is seen as a win-win strategy for both Brazil and China, potentially lowering Brazil's financing costs and promoting the internationalization of the RMB [3][5] Financial Context - Brazil's public debt is heavily financed through domestic investors, with less than 5% denominated in foreign currencies, primarily USD. Recently, Brazil issued international bonds worth $2.75 billion, with yields of 5.68% for five-year USD bonds and 6.73% for bonds maturing in 2035 [3] - The Brazilian central bank raised the benchmark interest rate to 14.75% to combat inflation, marking the highest level since August 2006, which has increased borrowing costs for the government, whose debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 76% [4][5] - The issuance of RMB-denominated bonds is expected to alleviate Brazil's debt pressure, with analysts suggesting that the cost of issuing 10-year bonds could be as low as 2%, compared to higher rates for bonds denominated in Brazilian real [5] Panda Bond Market Growth - The Panda bond market has been rapidly developing and is becoming a significant driver of RMB internationalization, with various international entities, including foreign governments and financial institutions, participating in the market [5][6] - In 2024, the annual issuance of Panda bonds in the interbank market is projected to reach approximately 185.8 billion RMB, with a market size nearing 300 billion RMB. The cumulative issuance in the first four months of this year was 62.2 billion RMB, indicating a strong growth trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves increased slightly to $32,853 billion by the end of May, supported by the recovery of the economy and stable development quality [1][5]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves rose by $36 billion, a 0.11% increase from the end of April [1]. - The increase in reserves was influenced by fluctuations in asset prices and exchange rates, with the dollar index experiencing a minor decline of 0.2% [2][3]. - The easing of the US-China trade tensions and a reduction in the outflow of capital from dollar assets contributed to the stability of the dollar [2][5]. Group 2: Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves reached 7,383 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous increase for seven months [1][6]. - The central bank's ongoing accumulation of gold is aimed at optimizing the international reserve structure and enhancing the credibility of the sovereign currency [6]. - As of the end of May, gold accounted for 7.0% of China's official international reserve assets, significantly below the global average of around 15% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current international monetary system is undergoing profound changes due to the long-term disorderly expansion of U.S. public debt, the "weaponization" of the dollar during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and various policy proposals during the Trump 2.0 era, which erode the credibility of the dollar as the world's reserve currency [2]. Group 1: Triffin Dilemma Misinterpretations - The "Triffin Dilemma" has evolved into two versions post-Bretton Woods: one concerning the current account and the other regarding "safe assets," both of which contain significant misunderstandings [4][13]. - Misconceptions include confusing net capital with total capital inflows, mixing "earned" and "borrowed" foreign exchange reserves, and conflating bilateral with multilateral capital flows [17][19][20]. - The supply of dollar liquidity is not necessarily linked to the U.S. current account deficit, as the U.S. maintained a current account surplus for about 30 years after becoming the primary reserve currency [14][21]. Group 2: U.S. Stocks as Safe Assets - Overseas funds have shifted from U.S. Treasury bonds to U.S. stocks, leading to the disappearance of the equity risk premium in the S&P 500, indicating that investors now view U.S. stocks as safe assets [5][23]. - This shift is driven by declining safety perceptions of U.S. debt and the stable long-term growth of U.S. stocks, with significant capital inflows into the U.S. stock market [26][30]. Group 3: U.S. Reserve Currency Status - The U.S. is unlikely to relinquish its status as the world's reserve currency due to the substantial benefits it provides, including the international seigniorage revenue [6][32]. - The unique asset-liability structure of the U.S. allows it to benefit from dollar depreciation, effectively transferring payment burdens globally [36][39]. Group 4: Declining Economic Share vs. Rising Financial Dominance - While the U.S. share of the real economy is declining, its share in international finance is increasing, primarily due to the offshore dollar being the most important financing currency and onshore dollars being viewed as safe assets [7][40][44]. - The expansion of cross-border capital flows has outpaced trade growth, reinforcing the dollar's financial position [46]. Group 5: Dollar Cycles - The dollar exhibits cyclical characteristics influenced by fundamentals, policies, and capital flows, with positive feedback mechanisms amplifying these cycles [8][48][52]. - The dollar's appreciation impacts global economies asymmetrically, benefiting the U.S. while constraining other economies [53]. Group 6: The Dollar's Global Impact - The U.S. often emerges unscathed from global crises, with the adverse effects disproportionately affecting non-U.S. economies due to the asymmetrical impact of U.S. monetary policy [56][58]. - The dollar's status as a reserve currency provides the U.S. with unique advantages, including lower financing costs and the ability to conduct fiscal stimulus without immediate repayment pressures [57]. Group 7: Need for an International Monetary System - The current trend towards a multi-polar world raises questions about the necessity of an international monetary system, with the dollar still playing a central role in global trade and finance [62][63]. - A multi-currency system may be preferable to a non-system, as it allows for currency competition and provides space for emerging currencies like the renminbi [64]. Group 8: Transitioning to a Multi-Currency System - Transitioning from a dollar-centric system to a multi-currency system requires policy coordination among major currency issuers and flexible exchange rate arrangements [11][65].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the impact of the recent US-China tariff agreement, where the US cancels 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, while China suspends additional tariffs for 90 days, leading to significant shifts in trade dynamics between the two countries [1][3][12] - Following the agreement, there was a surge in cargo traffic from US ports to China, but traditional US exports like energy and agricultural products faced a decline in demand from China [3][6] - The US soybean exports to China dropped by 32% in Q1 2025, while Brazil's soybean exports reached 60 million tons, indicating a shift in China's sourcing preferences towards South America [6][10] Group 2 - In the energy sector, US propane shipments were not approved for entry into China, redirecting to Southeast Asia, while China signed long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas with Qatar and Canada [8][22] - In manufacturing, China has replaced US scrap steel imports with nickel pig iron from Indonesia, and cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China surged by 47% [10][15] - China's chip self-sufficiency has increased to 35%, indicating a significant reduction in reliance on US semiconductor imports despite ongoing US restrictions [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights a broader trend of China reducing imports from the US due to various factors, including a shift towards clean energy and a growing domestic market for electric vehicles, which has decreased the demand for US energy imports [15][17] - The trust crisis stemming from US policy fluctuations has led Chinese companies to seek stable and reliable supply sources outside the US [19][20] - The restructuring of supply chains and the establishment of a new global trade order based on the renminbi is underway, as China diversifies its energy and commodity sources [22][24] Group 4 - The article discusses the current state of the US economy, noting a decline in support for the Trump administration and a general perception of poor economic performance among Americans [26][28] - Economic uncertainty in the US has led to increased inflation and rising prices for consumers, with estimates suggesting an annual loss of $1,200 per household due to higher import tariffs [30][31] - The article concludes that the temporary resolution of the US-China trade conflict may provide short-term relief, but without a change in US policy, a trend towards economic recession is likely [37][38]

当"借债成瘾"的邻居再次敲门时，中国这次选择了锁紧钱袋。这个将国债钟摆调至38万亿美元的庞然大物，正用美元霸权的手术刀划破全球信用体系。从 2008年金融危机到2025年债务上限谈判，华盛顿政客们在国会山上演全武行，两党为军费福利撕扯体面，最终以"给气球打气"的方式将债务上限提升至38万 亿美元。这种饮鸩止渴的玩法，让国际投资者用脚投票——美债收益率从3%飙升至4.5%，日元英镑连续12个月抛售美债，华尔街的债务游戏正在演变为全 球金融体系的慢性中毒。 面对这场精心编排的"狼来了"戏码，中国早已备好三道防火墙。第一道是黄金铸就的诺亚方舟：两年间日均增持3吨黄金，总储备突破7377万盎司，足以铺 满三个鸟巢体育场的金色盾牌，将外汇储备中黄金占比从3.19%提升至5.36%。第二道防线是人民币国际化闪电战：东南亚菜市场扫码支付、俄罗斯石油管 回望2008年的救援往事，中国曾以4万亿外汇储备换来的是贸易战清单和技术封锁黑名单。今天北京金融街上的决策者们深谙：国际金融体系从不庇护"善意 债权人"，只有铸币权与黄金储备构筑的护城河才能赢得对等对话。当美联储印钞机轰鸣着收割全球铸币税，当华盛顿政客把国债当作政治筹码，中国 ...

Group 1: Importance of Offshore Finance in China - The necessity of offshore finance activities in China is highlighted as a crucial opportunity to enhance the international financial center's capabilities and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - Offshore finance serves as a significant window for attracting foreign investment and promoting the development of offshore trade and economy, providing domestic enterprises with access to low-cost funding [3] - Offshore finance markets offer a relatively relaxed regulatory environment, fostering financial innovation and reform within domestic financial institutions [4] Group 2: Distinction Between Domestic and International Offshore Finance - Domestic offshore finance activities are defined as those conducted within specific regions in China, targeting non-residents and certain qualified domestic enterprises, thus supporting cross-border trade and financing needs [5] - International offshore finance activities involve Chinese financial institutions or enterprises operating in foreign regions, contributing to the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhancing the global competitiveness of Chinese financial institutions [6][7] Group 3: Integration of Domestic and International Offshore Finance - Emphasis is placed on the integration of domestic and international offshore finance activities, which is essential for the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center and the overall development of China's financial strength [10] - The development of a unified trading platform and clearing system is necessary to facilitate smooth capital, information, and financial product flows between domestic and international markets [10] - The establishment of cross-border risk monitoring and early warning mechanisms is crucial for preventing systemic financial risks and enhancing investor confidence in China's offshore financial markets [10] Group 4: Regulatory Framework and Policy Recommendations - The construction of a transparent regulatory system for offshore funds is vital, with a focus on international cooperation and the establishment of cross-border financial regulatory rules to prevent regulatory arbitrage [12] - Optimizing tax policies for offshore financial activities can lower operational costs for financial institutions and attract more international business and capital inflow [12] - The need for innovative measures such as tax incentives for offshore financial institutions and support for cross-border financial innovation is emphasized to create an attractive offshore financial environment [12] Group 5: Strategic Goals for Offshore Finance Development - The strategic direction for offshore finance development should focus on the integration of domestic and international activities, the unification of currency operations, and the deep integration with the real economy and international trade [13] - Systematic reforms involving institutional innovation, market connectivity, and risk prevention are essential to achieve the goal of becoming a financial powerhouse [13]