在全球地缘政治局势和贸易前景持续存在不确定性的背景下，黄金周二继续保持上涨势头， 周二美盘短线拉升，向上触及3280美元/盎司，日内涨超1.5%。 现货白银日内涨超1%。 在中东，鉴于以色列扩大在加沙的军事行动并限制援助进入，英法加威胁要对其采取包括制裁在内具体行动。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周一表示，以色列将接 管整个加沙地带，此前军方宣布将对哈马斯发动"前所未有的袭击"。 七国集团（G7）财长将于今日晚些时候在加拿大举行会谈，市场预计贸易谈判将成为焦点。花旗认为，美国可能会要求其他国家的货币升值，作为降低关 税谈判的一部分。这将促使美元被动贬值，从而有利于黄金。 瑞讯银行外部分析师Carlo Alberto De Casa表示，"金价维持在3200美元以上的超级区域，只要价格保持在该阈值上方，我们就可以开始看到进一步的复 苏。" 尽管金价创下历史纪录，中国上个月仍进口了近一年来最多的黄金。这得益于对贵金属的需求激增，促使央行放宽了对黄金流入的限制。 周二公布的海关数据显示，中国黄金进口总量达到127.5公吨，为11个月高点。这一数字较前月增长73%，即便在黄金接连触及历史高点（一度触及每盎司 3500美元）的情 ...

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：地缘政治风险是我们最大的风险。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with current trading around $3233, down approximately $10 from the previous closing price [2] - The geopolitical landscape and uncertainty in the global economy are influencing gold prices, with significant attention on the U.S. tax reform debate led by President Trump [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a consolidation phase, with resistance at $3250 and support around $3200, suggesting potential for further adjustments [4][2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market opened the week with a slight upward trend, with Brent crude oil futures rising to $65.54 per barrel and U.S. crude oil futures to $62.69, both showing over 1% gains from the previous week [5] - Geopolitical factors, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations, are driving oil prices higher, although market sentiment remains fragile due to economic slowdown concerns [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are under medium-term downward pressure, with potential support at $61 and resistance at $63.5 to $64 [6][5]

VISALO DU 021 (0016) betwo Orolo 99,9 01000 7' 2025年5月，国际黄金市场在多重矛盾交织中呈现出复杂的运行格局。伦敦金现货价格在 3200-3230 美元/盎司区间震荡，国内沪金主连合约则围绕750元/克 展开争夺。这种波动既是全球经济不确定性的缩影，也是货币政策博弈、地缘风险升级与市场情绪共振的结果。从历史维度看，当前金价较2024年1月突破 2800美元的历史高位仍有显著涨幅，但较4月创下的 3500美元峰值已回落近10%，市场正经历从亢奋到理性的再平衡。 金价运行的核心逻辑与当前特征 当前黄金市场的定价权正经历重构。美联储5月议息会议维持利率在 4.25%-4.5%区间不变，但声明中新增 "失业率与通胀风险双升" 的表述，显示政策转向 谨慎。尽管市场仍预期 2025 年将启动降息周期（预期幅度 75-100 个基点），但4月美国CPI同比增长2.3%、核心CPI同比2.8%的数据，使降息时点从6月推 迟至7月的概率升至59%。这种政策预期的反复导致美元指数在 100.36 附近波动，而黄金作为非生息资产的机会成本压力尚未完全释放。 地缘政治风险的常态化成为 ...

摩根大通(JPM.N)CEO戴蒙：地缘政治风险非常非常高。 ...

以前，流水线流走了你的青春，静电环套住了你的梦想，现在，震荡磨灭了你的激烈，横盘挫败了你的锐气，未来，带你重拾丢失的霸气，再现单边的放 肆。 5月，黄金市场上窜下跳，一念天堂，一念地狱，看着马上金价要起飞，转眼又V型反转，心态不好的已经被搞的晕头转向，黄金什么时候能走出震荡， 迎来单边？ 所以，尽量要适应短期反复的洗盘，不要追涨杀跌，看到上涨回落多，看到下跌反弹空，这种在震荡行情当中是不可取的，一定要关注上涨之后的回落幅 度，幅度过大反而很难再延续上涨。 好了，说一下今天的行情吧。 早上，金价开盘之后跳空高开，暴力拉升到3250美元附近，看似很强势，别光顾着高兴上涨，重点是回落幅度不能太大，回落前最后一上次上涨前支撑在 3227-30美元，也就是今天要走强，这里不能失守，失守了就未必了。 另外，每天早上我会发一个早评，时间大概是10：00~11：00左右，从盘面讲一下我对当日方向的理解以及看法，比如上周五面对上周四的强势拉升，而 我在《黄金，切勿追涨杀跌！》明确指出反弹3228-30空，因为早上回落幅度过大，上涨力量有所匮乏。 1小时，金价看似早上很强势，但回落破了3227美元，就不能再去做回落的多了，刚刚在 ...

Group 1 - The recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a rapid recovery in market risk appetite, resulting in a significant decline in gold prices, with London gold spot prices dropping 3.66% to $3202.2 per ounce and COMEX gold futures falling 3.72% to $3205 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the adjustment in precious metal prices is primarily due to the unexpected extent of the easing in trade tensions, prompting a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape has also contributed to the decline in gold prices, with expectations of improved U.S.-Iran relations and a reduction in tensions between India and Pakistan [3] Group 2 - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1,300 contracts to 161,200 contracts, while the long-to-short ratio rebounded by 1.6% [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains mixed, with key resistance levels providing support, and expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy potentially limiting further price declines [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields, as recent political disagreements have impacted market expectations significantly [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to market divergence, with experts emphasizing that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency devaluation rather than a short-term trading tool [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have reached over 60 historical highs, with more than 20 records set in 2025 alone, despite a recent pullback to around $3,200 per ounce, resulting in an approximate 60% increase in the market so far [1]. - The World Gold Council's analysis indicates that central bank purchases contributed over 10% to the short-term price fluctuations, while geopolitical risk factors accounted for 9% [1]. - The shift from net outflows to net inflows in gold ETFs contributed approximately 5.6% to the price increase [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The demand for gold has been bolstered by increasing central bank purchases and the growth of domestic gold-related ETFs, which have expanded from around 70 billion yuan to nearly 150 billion yuan [2]. - Historical data shows that gold has delivered an annualized return of nearly 9% over the past 50 years, with recent trends of de-dollarization and rising tariffs further enhancing its appeal as an investment [2]. - Experts note that gold, unlike traditional currencies, does not generate interest or dividends, making its value dependent on the next buyer's willingness to pay [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold market is characterized by high volatility and a complex set of influencing factors, with geopolitical risks providing upward pressure on prices [3]. - Historical trends suggest that while gold prices may rise in the long term, they can also experience significant corrections, as seen after the Bretton Woods system collapse [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained attention as a key asset for investors due to the weakening trust in the US dollar, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The financial, monetary, safe-haven, and commodity attributes of gold collectively influence its market trends [2] - Recent price increases are driven by three main factors: pricing logic, central bank gold purchases, and skepticism towards the US dollar system [2] - The rise in gold prices is linked to heightened geopolitical risks and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, which has intensified since 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - As of April 2023, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for six months, with gold now constituting 6.8% of total reserves [4] - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2023, aligning with the trend of over 1,000 tons purchased annually from 2022 to 2024, significantly surpassing the average of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021 [4] - The participation of individual investors in gold ETFs has surged, with over 41 million investors involved, reflecting a growing acceptance of gold as an investment tool [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Despite recent volatility, gold is viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency depreciation and economic uncertainty [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold still holds long-term allocation value, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - A recommended allocation of 5-10% in gold can effectively diversify risk and enhance portfolio performance, given its low correlation with other assets [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a complex situation influenced by weak U.S. economic data, rising recession risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - U.S. economic indicators for April showed a significant decline, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 0.5%, retail sales growth dropping from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4% [1] - The gold price has broken below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, with a potential downward target of around $2900 per ounce, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the recent price movements are characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with a significant resistance level at $3500 per ounce [2] - The current price rebound around $3160 is viewed as a short-term opportunity, with specific trading strategies recommended for both buying on dips and selling on rebounds [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the import price index, as well as geopolitical developments related to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1]