Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has rebounded sharply, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent supply mismatches in key spot markets, and a weakening dollar, leading to significant price increases across precious and base metals [1]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have reached a historical high, trading at $74.37 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4.5% [2]. - Gold prices have also risen, trading above $4,500 per ounce, with a peak above $4,530 per ounce, marking a new historical high [3]. - Platinum and palladium have rebounded strongly, with platinum rising 8% to $2,413.62 per ounce, also reaching record highs [5]. - The overall increase in precious metals reflects a deep investor anxiety regarding the macro environment and a strong demand for physical assets, with gold and silver prices up approximately 70% and over 150% respectively this year [8]. Base Metals - Copper prices have surged by 3% to $5,771 per ton, the highest level since July, driven by supply concerns and a weakening dollar [4][13]. - The market is anticipating tighter global supply by 2026, which is influencing current pricing strategies [14]. Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing severe physical shortages, with a significant negative spread indicating extreme tightness in supply [10]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria, have heightened the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [11]. - The influx of funds into gold ETFs has been robust, with global holdings increasing monthly, indicating strong institutional demand [12]. Lithium and Aluminum - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded strongly, breaking through the 130,000 yuan mark, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics in the electric vehicle sector [16]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant increase of over 6%, influenced by market speculation regarding potential production cuts amid a backdrop of oversupply [17].

【黄金期货行情表现】 地缘政治风险持续，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。 中国实物金需求明显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持十一个月。 【机构观点】 目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有逆转，美联储的利率政策和避险情绪可能是短期扰动因素，美 联储需兼顾就业和通胀双重指标，更加注重稳就业，今年9月开启降息本轮降息周期，今年已降息三 次；同时地缘政治冲突和国际贸易局势的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。根据美国最新数据，11月非农 数据冰火两重天，11月非农就业人口超过市场预期，10月非农人数因政府裁员大幅减少，但失业率超预 期上升至4.6%。9月PCE数据显示通胀数据回落，核心PCE同比上涨2.8%，低于市场预期，PCE同比上 涨2.8%，符合市场预期；11月CPI同比涨2.7%，不及市场预期，较9月的3%回落。短期来看，美国近期 数据增强市场降息预期，目前预期明年降息两次，美联储降息周期和美联储主席更迭在即，利多金价上 涨，同时全球央行购金和地缘政治冲突对金价形成坚实的中长支撑。 12月26日，沪金主力暂报1018.18元/克，跌幅0.93%，今日沪金主力开盘价1007.00元/克 ...

截至发稿，现货黄金上涨0.85%，报每盎司4517.63美元，此前一度触及每盎司4531.24美元的纪录高点;2月交割的纽 约黄金期货上涨0.97%，报每盎司4546.5美元。 OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示："自12月初以来，由动能驱动和投机性交易者推动了金银价格的上涨。年 末流动性稀薄、市场预期美国将维持较长时间降息周期、美元走软以及地缘政治风险再度升级，这些因素共同作 用，将贵金属价格推至新的历史高位。" "展望2026年上半年，黄金可能向每盎司5000美元迈进，而白银则有潜力触及每盎司90美元左右。" 现货白银上涨4.16%，报每盎司74.8705美元，此次一度突破75美元大关。 今年以来，受美联储政策转向宽松、地缘政治不确定性、央行强劲购金需求、ETF持仓增加以及去美元化进程持续 推动，黄金表现强劲，录得自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。白银年内飙升158%，远超黄金近72%的涨幅，这得益于结 构性供需缺口、被列为美国关键矿物以及强劲的工业需求。 智通财经APP获悉，受投机买盘推动、年末市场流动性收紧，叠加市场预期美联储将进一步降息及地缘政治紧张局 势加剧，黄金、白银和铂金价格于周五 ...

OANDA高级市场分析师表示，年末流动性稀薄、对美联储长期降息的预期、美元走弱以及地缘政治风 险激增共同作用，将贵金属推至新的纪录高位。2026年上半年黄金可能向每盎司5000美元水平迈进，而 白银有潜力达到每盎司90美元左右。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to geopolitical risks and a shift in the global monetary system, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - On December 26, spot gold prices surpassed $4500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4531.284, marking a historical high [1][4]. - Spot silver also saw significant gains, breaking through $75 per ounce and increasing by over 4% during the trading session [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Trends - The acceleration of a multipolar international monetary system has eroded trust in the safety of dollar-denominated assets, prompting central banks to increase their gold holdings to hedge against geopolitical and monetary uncertainties [2][5]. - The long-term downtrend in dollar credit is expected to challenge the safety of traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, leading many central banks to exchange dollars and Treasuries for gold, which will support gold prices [2][5]. - Current market conditions suggest that the gold market is likely in the mid-phase of a bull market, with no reversal signals observed, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical fragmentation [2][5]. Group 3: Future Price Projections - According to JPMorgan's 2026 outlook report, the long-term trend of diversifying into gold by official reserves and investors is expected to continue, with gold prices projected to reach $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [3][6].

Core Insights - Gold prices are expected to continue breaking historical records by the end of 2025, with spot gold briefly surpassing the $4,500 psychological barrier before stabilizing around $4,480 [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The strong performance of gold by the end of 2025 is driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and structural demand, including rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which significantly lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1] - A weakening dollar is reducing costs for non-U.S. buyers, thereby increasing demand, with expectations that the dollar's decline will continue into the following year [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation, are heightening risk aversion, further boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Structural Support - Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows are foundational to the bull market, with global central bank gold purchases expected to reach 850 tons in 2025, reflecting a recognition of gold's value and a weakening reliance on the dollar [2] - Physical support from gold ETFs is projected to attract approximately $82 billion (equivalent to 749 tons), marking the largest inflow since 2020, indicating that both institutions and retail investors view gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term hedge [2] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, gold prices are anticipated to transition from rapid increases to a stable plateau, with forecasts suggesting prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce, driven by central bank demand and potential interest rate cuts [3] - The average price of gold in Q4 2026 is expected to reach $5,055, with a long-term target of $6,000 by 2028, assuming consistent demand from investors and central banks at an average quarterly level of 566 tons [3] - Various banks project a trading range for gold in 2026 between $4,500 and $4,700, with potential upward movement towards $5,000 if macroeconomic uncertainties persist [4]

2026 年原油价格如何展望？20251225 摘要 地缘政治风险溢价回吐、美国对等关税政策及 OPEC 增产策略共同导致 油价下行，其中 OPEC 累计增产 205 万桶/日，但逐月累加，冲击可控。 欧盟对俄制裁虽短期扰动市场，但俄罗斯海运出口量基本持平，显示出 韧性。 预计 2026 年全球石油需求增速将低于历史平均水平，约为 90 万桶/日， 新能源替代效应增强，GDP 增长带来的石油需求弹性系数减弱。美国关 税政策和 OPEC 增产策略仍将是影响市场的重要因素。 港口虽非制裁直接对象，但因有识别受制裁船舶的能力而被纳入制裁名 单，导致油价上升和现货市场变化。2025 年运力市场大幅走高，中东 至中国运费飙升至 2.3 美元/桶，西非至中国涨至 3.9 美元/桶，年底更 高达 4-8 美元，主要因造船周期长和合规运力转向非合规市场。 2025 年全球库存总体处于低位运行，为油价提供支撑。截至 12 月，全 球商业原油库存为 31 亿桶，除中国外不到 20 亿桶，低于五年均值。柴 油库存也较低，为 5.4 亿桶，同样低于五年均值。 Q&A 2025 年全球原油市场的主要特点是什么？ 2025 年全球原油市 ...

因此，我的观点是：黄金已从单纯的商品，转变为对冲全球系统性风险的 "金融压舱石" 。策略上：对 于普通投资者，可将部分黄金（如ETF）作为长期资产配置的一部分，以应对不确定性。但短期切勿追 高，其波动同样剧烈。 那么，灵魂拷问来了： 你认为这轮史诗级黄金牛市，主要是对当下世界动荡的"恐慌投票"，还是对美 元信用长期衰减的"价值重估"？你会选择现在上车，还是继续观望？评论区聊聊你的真知灼见！ 我是帮主郑重，关注我，在动荡中寻找资产的确定性。 这绝非偶然。多重历史级因素的"共振" 造就了这场牛市：全球地缘政治"火药桶"频发；各国央行年购 金超千吨，重新定义战略储备；市场对美联储继续降息的预期，持续压低持有黄金的机会成本。 黄金暴涨71%！是末日避险，还是价值回归？ 朋友们，见证历史！黄金正迎来 1979年以来最强劲的一年，纽约期金年度涨幅已接近71%！上一次如 此疯狂时，美国总统还是卡特，世界正陷入动荡。历史，似乎在重演？ ...

2025年末，受气候异常扰动、地缘冲突升级与供需格局错配等因素影响，全球大宗商品市场迎来一轮强劲的上涨行情。多数品种价格涨势如虹，核心品类更 是表现亮眼。 其中，贵金属延续牛市，12月24日，COMEX黄金期货站到4550美元/盎司上方，COMEX白银则飙升至72美元/盎司以上，二者均有望创下1979年以来的最强 年度表现。同时，铜价刷新历史高位至11952美元/吨，铂金因连续三年供应短缺，价格同步走高。 农产品期货价格则因动态的供需结构性矛盾，走势不一。玉米价格持续走高，小麦、大豆、豆油和豆粕在阶段性回落后发生转向，价格呈现一定的上扬趋 势。 2026年，在全球流动性变奏、地缘风险演变及产业需求转型等变量交织下，大宗商品价格会延续牛市行情，还是会发生转向？未来市场走向备受关注。 贵金属表现强势，白银"跑赢"黄金 今年年初，国际金价还在2600-2700美元/盎司的区间震荡，如今每盎司金价已经突破4550美元，年内涨幅超六成。白银的表现更是突出，年内价格累涨约 140%，涨幅"跑赢"黄金。随着白银的暴涨，金银比已经从今年年初的85:1收窄至70以下。 | — 纽约银主连 | 72.275 | 高 72.750 ...