央行的持续买入也强化了这一趋势。国家外汇管理局近日发布的数据显示，9月末我国黄金储备为7406 万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为我国央行连续第11个月增持黄金。此外，俄罗斯、印度、土耳其等国也 在增加黄金配置。高盛最新报告预计，未来两年，各国央行仍将维持较高的净购金量，以实现储备结构 的多元化。 不过，金价大涨背后，也潜藏着投资风险。10月9日，沪金主力合约一度突破每克900元，品牌金饰价格 更是逼近每克1200元。当普通消费者在柜台前犹豫"要不要买点金子压箱底"时，资本市场的资金也在高 位徘徊。短期看，金价的涨幅已经充分反映了市场对"弱美元""降息预期""避险情绪"等利好因素的定 价。若未来宏观数据好转或地缘风险缓和，金价不排除出现阶段性回调的可能。历史上，2011年金价见 顶后曾连续四年下跌，跌幅近一半，这足以提醒投资者：黄金避险，从来不是无风险的庇护。 □徐兵 近期，黄金又一次站上了舆论的风口。数据显示，现货金价突破每盎司4000美元关口，刷新历史纪录， 年内累计涨幅超过50%。从券商研报到社交平台，一股"金色狂欢"蔓延开来：金价涨、黄金股涨、金饰 也涨，仿佛一场全民"淘金热"正在上演。面对这股热浪，普通投 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market saw a broad increase, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 indices rising by 0.57%, 0.44%, and 0.39% respectively [3] - The healthcare sector led the performance among US industries, with a gain of 3.73%, followed by utilities at 2.76% and information technology at 1.48% [3][21] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced significant stock price increases following an agreement between major US pharmaceutical companies and former President Trump to lower drug prices [5] Group 2 - The US government officially entered a shutdown on October 1, which has raised market risk aversion and led to a historic high in gold prices [4] - OpenAI's release of its advanced video generation model Sora 2.0 and new partnerships with South Korean companies have positively impacted the tech sector, particularly chip stocks [4] - The Brent crude oil price has been negatively affected by OPEC+ production increase expectations, while LME cobalt, copper, and COMEX gold saw significant price increases [3][13] Group 3 - The outlook for the Chinese stock market remains positive, with expectations for more policy support following the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting [6] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a focus on liquidity, with expectations for a bullish stock market as fundamentals gradually improve [6]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has outperformed gold this year, with a price increase of over 70%, compared to gold's approximately 54% rise, and has recently surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time in history [1][5][10]. Market Performance - As of October 9, the spot silver price reached $50.66 per ounce, marking a 3.72% increase [1]. - Silver's market capitalization has exceeded that of Bitcoin, reaching $2.667 trillion, while Bitcoin's market cap stands at $2.362 trillion [3][4]. - This year, silver's performance has been notably strong, with a nearly 15% outperformance over gold, making it the largest annual increase since 1979 [4]. Factors Driving Silver Prices - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising industrial demand, particularly in sectors such as solar panels and semiconductors [6]. - Increased risk aversion has led investors to shift from gold to silver, as the gold market appears crowded [7]. - Significant inflows into Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) have supported the recent price increases, alongside strong seasonal demand from India [7][10]. Institutional Outlook - Institutions have raised their price forecasts for silver, with Citibank setting a target price of $55 per ounce for the next three months [10]. - Six major A-share companies related to silver have seen institutional investors increase their holdings by over 400 million shares [10]. - Analysts from Saxo Bank predict that silver prices could rise to $55 per ounce within the next six to nine months, driven by structural demand in solar energy and electric vehicles [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market has experienced a supply shortage in recent years, with increasing demand from industries such as electric vehicles, AI, semiconductors, and 5G technology [10]. - The chief analyst at Guoxin Futures suggests that ongoing monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices [11].

展望未来，金瑞期货表示，短期贵金属价格仍将保持偏强，但预计市场波动将同步放大，建议维持逢低 做多策略。 北京时间10月9日，国际现货白银价格加速上涨，历史首次突破50美元/盎司。Wind数据显示，截至北京 时间20:47，伦敦现货白银涨超2%，最高触及50.159美元/盎司。 金瑞期货表示，今日金银价格上涨主要是由两个因素驱动。一是美联储降息预期持续发酵。美联储公布 的9月议息会议纪要显示，联储官员多数支持今年四季度继续降息。降息预期的落地，将会继续推动美 元与美债利率的走弱，利好金银价格。二是近期美国政府停摆、法国政局动荡、国际贸易局势仍存不确 定性、美联储独立性受到挑战、多国主权债务问题恶化等因素推动避险情绪的发酵，同样对贵金属价格 构成利好。 ...

技术面：周线上，上周行情强势上行且收阳线，显示行情强势。日线上，上一个交易日行情强势走高且收大阳线，暗示短期金 价仍有走高的机会。4小时线上，行情沿着20日均线走高，短期关注行情回调测试下方4017美元一线支撑情况。 原油方面： 首先，近期美国、以色列以及哈马斯方面都释放信号表示，加沙战争已经结束，这将短期推动原油供给中断风险降温，短期不 利于原油价格走高。 其次，产油国们大概率维持高产量。此前欧佩克+在10月份的会议上维持小幅增产的产量政策，同时俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示， 俄罗斯将逐步增加石油产量，暗示原油供给端大概率维持在较高水平。 最后，需求端看，美国政府持续停摆，虽然部分经济数据暂缓公布，但是市场对美国经济前景比较悲观，这将不利于原油需求 的改善。 黄金方面： 美国总统特朗普近期宣布以色列和哈马斯均已签署和平计划的第一阶段协议。特朗普更是表示他有可能在近期前往中东，甚至 考虑去加沙。加沙的停火将在短期内令地缘摩擦有所降温。 不过近期避险情绪并没有明显降温。一方面是在近期第六轮投票表决中，美国参议院再次否决了两党的拨款法案，美国政府继 续停摆；另一方面，俄乌在近期并没有明显降温的迹象，暗示避险情绪难以降温 ...

日内收盘，沪金跳涨4.82%，报收914.32元/克。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 今日美联储会议纪要公布，多数官员认为年内进一步宽松可能合适，但对降息速度分歧显著，利好金银 价格。 另一方面，美国联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服务或暂 停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到影响。此前，美国两党因医保福利方面分歧，未能就新的临时拨款法案 达成一致。 美国政府关门，法国政局动荡，美联储独立性问题、特朗普贸易政策前景以及地缘政治的不稳定导致市 场不确定性增加，避险情绪提升也使黄金受益。 目前在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征 从而打压美元指数，同时欧美国家政治局势动荡使股市风险偏好下降从而增加机构投资者对贵金属避险 的配置需求带来价格不断抬升。美联储决议如期降息 25 个 BP 对于未来宽松步伐仍较谨慎需要基于数 据决策，本次市场解读偏中性消化后未来分歧或更剧烈使行情走势反复。短期美国政府"关门"和海外政 局动荡等风险升温，黄金维持高位震荡波动率或再次上升，单边择机逢低买入或买入虚值看涨期权代替 多头。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long term, but short - term technical overbought risks should be guarded against [1][3][4] - Copper is a strategic resource in Sino - US competition and a substitute for precious metals, and is long - term bullish under the background of tight copper concentrate supply and booming green copper demand [1][9] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, short - term upside is limited, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [1][12] - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [1][16] - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][20] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and long positions should take profits in a timely manner [1][24] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, the overseas gold market was strong, with spot gold breaking through $4,000 per ounce, and COMEX gold rising 4.45%. Domestic gold may challenge the 910 position [2][4] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak economic data, French political turmoil, Japanese leadership change, and central bank gold - buying behavior contribute to the rise [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held, and short - term positions can be deployed on dips [4] Silver - **Market Performance**: It follows the sharp fluctuations of gold and copper markets, with short - term high sentiment. Domestic silver may challenge the 11,300 position [1][4] - **Driving Factors**: Global policy stimulus, strong demand, and obvious supply - demand gap support long - term bullishness [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be tried, and long - term positions should be held [1] Copper - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, LME copper hit a new high of $10,802.5 per ton, and SHFE copper may open higher [6][8] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak employment data, Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US dollar, geopolitical risks, and supply disruptions in Indonesian mines [8] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and new long positions can be entered after a pull - back. Long - term bullishness is maintained [9] Zinc - **Market Performance**: LME zinc hit a new high during the holiday but then declined. SHFE zinc may rise in the short term but with limited upside [10][11][12] - **Driving Factors**: Low LME zinc inventory, supply - demand imbalance with increasing supply and decreasing demand in the medium - to - long term [11][12] - **Strategy**: Short - term sell - hedging can be arranged at high levels, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [12] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME aluminum rose during the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to follow suit [13][14] - **Driving Factors**: Expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals, and support from terminal consumption [15] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be taken at low levels, paying attention to downstream processing enterprise operations [16] Nickel - **Market Performance**: LME nickel rose slightly during the holiday, and SHFE nickel may continue to rebound [17][18] - **Driving Factors**: Overseas political situation has limited impact on nickel supply, and there is a supply - demand divergence within the domestic nickel industry chain [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for now, paying attention to downstream consumption improvement [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with pre - holiday fluctuations converging [22] - **Driving Factors**: Increasing production, stable downstream demand, and expected inventory reduction [23] - **Strategy**: Take profits on long positions in the range of 72,800 - 74,500 [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2511 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term weak oscillation, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday decline [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents a. Price Movement and View Classification - For price movement calculation, for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily daytime closing price is the end price to calculate the rise - fall range [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% is strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4]. b. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Core logic: During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, and other commodities were generally under pressure. Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market. Although eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, Israel's combat state remains unchanged. The US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropped by about 1% during the holiday. With geopolitical premium support weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil 2511 contract is expected to show a weakly oscillating trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5].

后续应聚焦在美国政府停摆解决情况。如果美国政府停摆问题能够得到妥善解决，市场的避险情绪可能 会有所缓解，这可能会对金价产生一定的短线压力。但如果停摆持续时间延长，或者后续再次出现类似 情况，避险情绪将继续支撑金价上涨。另外，俄乌冲突、中东、南美局势等地缘政治热点地区的变化也 将持续影响黄金价格。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 光大： 国庆期间，纽约期金首次触及4000美元/盎司整数关口，现货同步创历史新高至3980美元/盎司美元附 近，金银比最低跌至81附近。外盘黄金异常强势，主要基于美国政府停摆引发的避险需求持续升温。美 国政府停摆影响是多方面的。一是重要经济数据发布中断。非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发布，将无 法对美联储官员的货币政策作出有效指引，但政府停摆对经济潜在的影响，反而强化市场对降息的预 期，美联储10月降息概率超90%。二是，美元信用削弱。政府停摆意味着美 ...

各位朋友早，我是帮主郑重，刚盯着盘面就瞅见个有意思的动静——国际金价早盘突然往下跳，COMEX黄金期货跌超0.7%，这一下可不是平白无故的，背 后藏着条刚出来的关键消息。 做了20年财经记者，我太懂黄金的"性子"了，它就像个"避险晴雨表"，地缘上一紧张就往上冲，一旦局势松口气，它就容易往下走。今儿这波跳水，正好跟 哈马斯同意加沙停火的消息对上了——埃及那边说，以色列和哈马斯9号就要签停火协议，这消息一出来，市场里揣着的"避险心"就松了大半，黄金自然跟 着往下调。 可能有人问，这跳水要不要慌？我这做中长线的得说句实在的：别盯着早盘这一下波动就乱了阵脚。短期跳水是"避险情绪退潮"的反应，但黄金的长期走 势，从来不是单靠一条停火消息定的——后面协议能不能稳落地、地缘会不会再出变数，还有全球货币政策的节奏，这些才是该盯着的核心。 我是帮主郑重，行情里的波动看着热闹，其实都有门道。今儿这波黄金跳水，更像给咱们提个醒：看资产别只盯盘面，得往消息背后的逻辑挖。后面金价怎 么走，咱们接着慢慢瞧。 ...