Group 1 - The core event involves the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, which has significantly impacted global financial markets, causing volatility in U.S. stock futures, a surge in gold and silver prices, and a decline in the U.S. dollar index [1][3][5] - Trump's declaration of intent to "take over Venezuela's key energy assets" indicates a strategic move to leverage geopolitical actions for economic benefits, highlighting the intertwining of military and economic strategies [3][5] - The immediate market reaction saw energy and defense stocks benefiting, with Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics shares rising approximately 3%, while the Dow Jones index increased by 1.23%, reaching a historical high [5][10] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index had already declined nearly 9.5% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2017, reflecting a loss of market trust in the dollar [7][13] - The Federal Reserve's response to market instability includes a neutral stance on interest rate cuts, with an 18.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in January, while 81.7% of the market expects rates to remain unchanged [8][10] - Despite the Fed's liquidity management operations, which have become a norm, there is a growing concern about the sustainability of the dollar's value amid rising national debt exceeding $38 trillion [10][13] Group 3 - The dollar's dominance is being challenged as countries increasingly pursue local currency settlements, particularly in the energy sector, undermining the dollar's long-standing monopoly in pricing commodities [15][19] - The International Monetary Fund reported that the dollar's share of global allocated foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.92% in Q3 2025, signaling a potential shift in the global monetary landscape [15][19] - The trend of central banks favoring gold as a reserve asset, with gold prices soaring nearly 68% in 2025, indicates a move towards tangible assets as a hedge against fiat currency risks [15][19] Group 4 - The structural issues facing the dollar are becoming apparent, as political influences on monetary policy raise concerns about the future of the dollar as a global reserve currency [19][20] - The evolving international monetary system is seeing the emergence of multiple anchor currencies, including gold, the yuan, and the euro, suggesting a decline in the dollar's singular dominance [19][20] - The future may not necessitate a single "world currency," but rather a variety of "regional currencies," each operating independently [20]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market remains strong at the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in both gold and silver driven by geopolitical factors and market dynamics [5]. Price Movements - As of January 6, 2026, spot gold is priced at $4456.744 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 0.17% and a peak of $4475.81 [1][2]. - Spot silver shows a more robust performance, currently at $78.152 per ounce, up 2.13% with a high of $79.369 [1][3]. - In the futures market, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.33% to $4466 per ounce, reaching a maximum of $4486 [1][4]. - COMEX silver futures are priced at $77.765 per ounce, with a peak of $79.29 [1][5]. Market Drivers - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. actions in Venezuela, which have escalated market risk aversion [5]. - Expectations of a more accommodative monetary environment, with increased anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are lowering the holding costs of non-yielding assets like gold [7]. - The ongoing demand from central banks, particularly in China, and institutional investors for gold continues to provide long-term support for prices [7]. - Strong industrial demand for silver, especially in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics, is amplifying price volatility and elasticity [7]. Future Outlook - The medium to long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, although short-term volatility should be monitored [8]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with the price center likely to shift upward [8]. - Silver is anticipated to exhibit greater volatility due to strong industrial demand and ongoing supply shortages [8]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to allocate 5% to 10% of total assets to gold, utilizing vehicles such as gold ETFs or physical gold bars [8]. - Silver is suggested for tactical trading, with strict position control and caution against chasing high prices [8].

元旦假期后，避险情绪升温推动贵金属市场重回上升通道。 1月6日，国内期货市场有色商品涨幅居前。截至下午收盘，沪银主力合约2604大涨超7%；铂、钯经历节前大跌，近两日也双双收获超10%涨幅，其中 仅6日，主力合约就分别报涨6.02%、5.16%；沪金主力合约2602则在节前大跌后，重回千元关口上方，报收1004.98元/克。 国际市场上，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中逼近4500美元/盎司，距2025年12月29日创下的4550.52美元/盎司历史新高仅一步之遥。 | | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | COMEX黄金 | 4459.8d | 8.3 | 0.19% | 2.99% | | COMEX白银 | 77.675d | 1.018 | 1.33% | 9.64% | | SHFE黄金 | 1004.98 | 12.60 | 1.27% | 2.80% | | SHFE自银 | 19452 | 1283 | 7.06% | 13.93% | | #奥士 | 1002.84 | 9.98 | 1 ...

| | | 免责声明 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/6 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 19452 | 1004.980 | 10.0↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | +1205.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 1,752.00 | 130,227.00 | -2296.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | | -618.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 192,491.00 | + ...

1月6日，迈入 2026 年首个交易周，市场正全力消化周末委内瑞拉局势带来的潜在冲击。RadexMarkets 瑞德克斯表示，受地缘风险诱发的避险情绪推动，贵金属市场今日集体跳空高开，展现出强劲的向上动 能。黄金价格在开盘后迅速收复失地，重新站稳在 4400 美元/盎司的关键关口之上。与此同时，白银的 表现同样亮眼，在经历了上周末跌破 73 美元/盎司的低迷后，今早强势反弹至 76 美元/盎司水平。 1月6日，迈入 2026 年首个交易周，市场正全力消化周末委内瑞拉局势带来的潜在冲击。RadexMarkets 瑞德克斯表示，受地缘风险诱发的避险情绪推动，贵金属市场今日集体跳空高开，展现出强劲的向上动 能。黄金价格在开盘后迅速收复失地，重新站稳在 4400 美元/盎司的关键关口之上。与此同时，白银的 表现同样亮眼，在经历了上周末跌破 73 美元/盎司的低迷后，今早强势反弹至 76 美元/盎司水平。 在工业金属领域，铜价的表现尤为引人注目。铜价今日大幅飙升触及 5.80 美元/磅，正迅速向历史高位 发起冲击，反映出市场在避险之余，对工业需求的长期前景仍持乐观态度。虽然委内瑞拉目前局势尚在 可控范围内，但投资者显然 ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（1月6日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计97704千克，今日仓单 较上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周二（1月6日）黄金期货开盘价994.02元/克，截至目前最高1007.42元/克，最 低991.60元/克。截止发稿报1004.98元/克，涨幅1.27%，成交量为192491手，持仓为130227手，日持仓 减少2296手。 | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 97704 | 0 | 美国ISM制造业指数创一年低点，工厂活动持续萎缩。马杜罗在首次过堂时否认美国控罪，丹麦警告华 府攻击格陵兰将意味着北约终结。 另外2026年1月8日至1月14日期间，彭博商品指数及标普高盛商品指数调参，预计引发来自对应指数基 金的约50亿美元黄金被动抛压与约40亿美元白银被动抛压。因白银流动性低于黄金，受到的抛压冲击可 能更为显著，投资者需提前做好准备。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 2026年1月3日凌晨，美国特种部队突袭委内瑞拉首都，带走委总统马杜罗及其夫人。消息传出后隔日受 避险情绪刺激，贵金属开盘上行。国内市 ...

格隆汇1月6日｜由于贵金属和铜价上涨，伦敦矿业股在早盘交易中走高。随着投资者寻求在更安全的资 产中避险，黄金和白银成为了美国干预委内瑞拉局势的受益者。纽约黄金期货价格上涨0.5%，至每金 衡盎司4473.30美元；白银价格上涨1.9%，至每盎司78.09美元。与此同时，Hargreaves Lansdown的Matt Britzman写道，由于投资者押注今年供应将趋紧，铜价正在推向历史新高。铜矿商安托法加斯塔上涨 0.3%，金矿商霍希尔德矿业上涨0.7%。大宗商品巨头嘉能可股价上涨0.8%，英美资源集团上涨0.4%。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions have recently increased due to U.S. actions against Venezuela, but risk aversion has cooled after several days of market digestion [1] - The world's largest gold ETF has reduced its holdings twice recently, with a significant cut of 5.43 tons on January 2, bringing total holdings to 1065.13 tons, indicating a slight decline in bullish sentiment towards gold [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihao believes that expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have driven gold prices higher, but the likelihood of a rate cut in January is low, suggesting investors should be cautious of short-term price corrections [1] - On the technical front, the market has shown strength with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $4416 and resistance at $4500 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil sales prices to major Asian customers for the third consecutive month, with the price of its flagship Arab Light crude reaching a five-year low, indicating weak demand from Asian buyers [2] - The price spread between Dubai benchmark crude and Brent crude futures has widened to the highest level since August, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2] - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has been increasing production, leading to a situation where global supply exceeds demand, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of significant oversupply pressures on oil prices [2] - On the technical side, the market has shown strong upward movement with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $57 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar is showing weakness, with potential to break previous lows, as geopolitical risks provide limited support and a rate cut cycle looms [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% at the beginning of last year to 4.6% in November, with projections indicating it may exceed 5% soon [3] - Employment market pressures may force the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, with potential cuts of up to 125 basis points to 2.25% by year-end if labor market conditions worsen [3] - Technically, the dollar index has formed a bearish pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating a failed challenge at key resistance levels [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong upward movement recently, breaking out of a previous consolidation range, suggesting potential for further gains [4] - The market is expected to test support at the 52214 level during any pullbacks [4] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market is exhibiting strong upward momentum, with indicators showing a bullish trend following a golden cross between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages [5] - There is potential for further price increases, with support at the 5.92 level [5]

Group 1 - The return of "geopolitical premium" indicates that geopolitical risks are becoming a dominant market factor, but the current macro backdrop of high supply and weak demand will limit its intensity [2] - Safe-haven sentiment is expected to rise selectively, with funds likely flowing into core safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, rather than a broad flight from risk assets [2] - Gold and silver have seen record performances, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, with prices reaching new highs; however, caution is advised due to potential passive fund sell-offs from upcoming Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing [2] Group 2 - The situation in Venezuela is being closely monitored, with potential for gold prices to maintain high levels unless further news emerges; if the Maduro government falls quickly without leading to a prolonged civil war, the geopolitical premium may quickly recede [4] - Despite significant geopolitical changes marked by Maduro's arrest, early signs suggest that the global oil market will respond relatively smoothly, with Venezuela's oil infrastructure reportedly unaffected by recent US attacks [4] - The US has indicated intentions to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry and sell "large amounts" of oil to global buyers, despite Venezuela's production having drastically declined to less than 1% of global supply [4] Group 3 - Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA has begun to cut oil production as exports have dropped to zero due to ongoing US oil sanctions, leading to increased pressure on the interim government [6] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on oil, with a notable rise in net long positions for US benchmark crude, reflecting market speculation regarding potential military actions in South America [6] - The new acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, may lead Venezuela into a prolonged political struggle, with short-term oil price spikes possible due to geopolitical risks, but global oversupply and Venezuela's minimal production will limit price increases [8]

市场解读： 1月6日，在2026年开年之际，全球金融市场迎来了一场剧烈的震动。美国对委内瑞拉发动突然军事行 动，直接逮捕了总统马杜罗及其妻子，这一事件堪称自1989年美国入侵巴拿马以来，拉美地区最直接、 最具戏剧性的干预行动。这一地缘政治风暴瞬间点燃了市场的避险情绪，推动黄金价格急速攀升，现货 金一度触及近一周高点，甚至逼近历史纪录高点。这不仅仅是一场政治事件，更是对黄金作为终极避险 资产地位的又一次有力印证。在不确定性笼罩全球的背景下，黄金的牛市行情似乎才刚刚进入高潮阶 段。本交易日将出炉欧美国家12月PMI数据终值，投资者需要予以留意，另外，需要关注美联储官员的 讲话和地缘局势的进一步消息。 黄金技术分析 黄金周一盘面呈现"突破-回落-再拉升"的强势格局：早盘上破4400关键阻力后，亚欧盘延续上行态势最 高触及4439；美盘时段出现短暂回调，最低下探4395后迅速企稳反弹，午夜时段再度发力冲高，刷新日 内高点至4459。 当前市场缺乏重大数据指引，技术结构成为核心主导逻辑：其一，头肩底形态保持完整，颈线位4400实 现"顶底转换"，该价位未有效破位前，多头趋势根基稳固；其二，日线级别收出实体大阳，强趋势下 ...