Core Viewpoint - France is urging China to lift its countermeasures against French cognac imports, but China appears to link this issue to the European Union's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Cognac to France - In 2023, France's cognac export value reached €4.2 billion, with nearly one-third of this market coming from China [3]. - High-end cognac brands, particularly XO, are considered valuable assets among wealthy consumers in China, indicating the significance of this market for French producers [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Responses - The European Commission is set to finalize tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with potential rates soaring up to 48% [3]. - France's Agriculture Minister, Marc Fesneau, has expressed urgency for China to reconsider its stance, highlighting the tension in trade relations [3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The trade conflict could have severe repercussions for French agriculture, as the countermeasures may extend beyond cognac to include other vital sectors such as aircraft, luxury goods, and dairy products [3][5]. - The competitive landscape for cognac in China is intensifying, with domestic wines from regions like Ningxia and international competitors from Chile and Australia posing significant threats [5]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - French President Macron's previous emphasis on European strategic autonomy contrasts sharply with the current situation, where France seems to be reacting to U.S. influences rather than asserting its own interests [5]. - The ongoing trade war is characterized as mutually damaging, with reports of layoffs in French vineyards as a direct consequence of the trade tensions [5].

一、历史的教训 前言 二、美国的贸易战与中国 1985年，美国与沙特达成协议，将沙特的石油产量大幅提升，油价暴跌，对苏联的石油收入造成了致命打击。此外，美国还通过推迟粮食出口谈判，迫使苏 联从其他国家进口粮食，进一步加剧了苏联经济的恶化。在这一系列攻势下，苏联无法维持经济稳定，最终导致了1989年苏联的解体。 1 1 5 ry N 1 u a 2 Print al lets e 11 - 20 o b - - 249 . 8 . 4 8 8 e - 61 8 a 6472 gle 1 4 4 美国发动的贸易战给世界带来了很多启示，特别是对于那些过度依赖外部资源的国家。苏联与中国的情况有所不同。苏联经济对石油的依赖程度极高，而且 在关键技术上严重依赖进口。而中国则拥有更为多元化的产业结构，虽然也面临着能源供应的挑战，但中国在出口市场上更加多元化，不容易像苏联那样被 美国轻易打击。 美国对中国的贸易战同样是有着明确目标的——通过削弱中国的能源供应来打压中国的经济。尤其是在石油领域，中国是世界上第二大经济体，每天的石油 需求量达到730万桶，而国内的战略石油储备却不足30天，进口的石油主要来自中东和非洲，且大部分通 ...

铜: 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80160，基差240，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月27日铜库存减1800至91275吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 ...

【导读】日韩股市高开，现货黄金开盘下跌 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下日韩股市的最新市场情况及资讯。 日韩股市高开 6 月 30 日早间，日韩股市高开， 日经 225 指数涨超 1.6% ，达到去年 7 月中旬以来的最 高点位。 特朗普：美国与日本的汽车贸易不公平 美国总统特朗普周日表示，美国和日本之间的汽车贸易是不公平的。距离两国达成贸易协议 只剩一周多的时间，届时美国可能提高对日本商品的关税。 特朗普在周日播出的福克斯新闻采访中说道： " 我们把数以百万计日本的汽车运到美国，这 不公平。 "" 我向日本解释了这一点，他们表示理解。我们对日本存在巨大的贸易逆差，他们 也理解这一点。 " 特朗普在讲话中说， " 现在我们有石油，他们可以拿走很多石油，他们也 可以拿走很多其他东西。 " 根据日本经济产业省周一公布的数据，日本 5 月份工业产出增长 0.5% ，而 4 月份为下降 1.1% ，经济学家此前预期增幅为 3.5% 。这份官方数据显示，预计日本公司 6 月份产出将 增长 0.3%，7 月份将下降 0.7% 。 个股方面，奥林巴斯、软银集团、东京电力等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | ...

五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-06-30 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五美豆收涨，USDA 面积报告前调整仓位，上周交易天气较好及贸易战担忧美豆整体回落，不过美 豆估值略低，可能存在一定支撑。国内豆粕期货大幅回落，累库压力增大，现货压榨量本周小幅下调， 饲料企业库存天数报 7.75 天环比持平，同比中性。周末国内豆粕现货小幅上调 30 元左右，华东报 2820 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计本周预计压榨大豆 228 万吨，上周压榨 249 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳定小涨，中国买盘有所放缓， 中美大豆关税仍未解除支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意贸易战若缓 和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。周一夜间美豆将发布种植面积报告，市场不确定性增加，关注面积方 面 ...

当加拿大对亚马逊、谷歌亮出3%的数字税匕首时，特朗普瞬间引爆了北美贸易的一枚威力十足的核弹。美加贸易谈判戛然而止的硝烟中，一场牵动全球 贸易格局的多米诺骨牌正在轰然倒塌。 加拿大这招数字税看似蚊子腿，实则是主权国家的绝地反击。在数字经济洪流中，渥太华眼睁睁看着硅谷巨鳄吮吸本国数据红利却分文不缴，恰如大航海 时代殖民地目睹黄金舰队扬长而去。追溯至2022年的征税铁腕，更是给美国科技殖民体系钉上棺材钉——三十八亿新元的赎金单，撕碎了"美加特殊关 系"的那块最后的遮羞布。 这出双簧戏暴露了白宫的贸易战剧本：先拿软柿子加拿大祭旗，特朗普甚至多次叫嚣让加拿大成为美国的第51个州，同时威慑正在谈判桌前的欧盟与印 度。如同拿破仑横扫意大利震慑欧陆，特朗普要用渥太华的鲜血染红"美国优先"的战旗。 如此看来，加美贸易已走向生死簿。加拿大GDP仅2.2万亿美元，却承载4127亿对美出口，美国市场吞噬加拿大18.7%经济命脉。特朗普的第51州论之背 后，是钢铝关税、汽车关税、农产品关税组成的锁链三重奏 特朗普的暴怒实为精心设计的战略讹诈。当财长贝森特正夸耀"劳动节前完成18国谈判"的惊世豪言，总统却突然对最亲密邻邦发动关税突袭。 ...

聚烯烃：短期偏高，趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 PP：趋势偏弱 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ 首先、当前中东情况趋向暂停，此前多头核心驱动消失。在供应端，目前检修量不足以改变供需格局， 新增产能大大抵消了供应端的努力。需要看到中国化债压力、欧美衰退压力等宏观因素配合国内产能扩 张的趋势，趋势压力仍在； ◆ 第二、站在中期角度看，供应端新增产能压力主要集中在上半年，虽然当下市场对贸易战好转的乐观因 素预期抢出口，但这并不改变总量供应过剩、下游低利润导致无力正反馈，因此高位仍然需要保持谨慎； ◆ 第三、从宏观角 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 104% on Chinese goods, followed by a "forgiveness list" that included rare earths and semiconductors, maintaining a lower tax rate of 20% on these items, indicating a contradictory stance [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce quietly issued rare earth import licenses to 28 American companies after announcing the tariffs, reflecting a contradictory approach [5] - The U.S. military is facing challenges due to a shortage of critical materials like samarium-cobalt magnets, which are predominantly sourced from China, impacting the production of F-35 fighter jets and B-21 bombers [7][11] Group 2 - China's rare earth export restrictions are a strategic move that significantly impacts U.S. military capabilities, as 87% of U.S. weapon systems rely on Chinese rare earth materials [11][12] - The F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet project in the U.S. is experiencing delays due to insufficient rare earth supplies, raising concerns within the U.S. Air Force [12] - The global supply chain is affected, with countries like Vietnam and Brazil benefiting from U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipping, as businesses reroute to avoid high fees [21] Group 3 - The U.S. automotive industry is suffering from production halts due to rare earth shortages, with General Motors halting electric pickup production and the automotive manufacturers' association issuing ultimatums [21] - The global economy is in turmoil as China controls 93% of rare earth processing capacity, threatening industries like electric vehicles and wind power with potential supply disruptions [23] - The U.S. attempts to diversify its rare earth supply through allies have proven ineffective, as many countries still rely on China for processing [25][27]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. wine industry is facing unprecedented challenges due to trade tensions, particularly with Canada, leading to a dramatic 93% drop in wine exports, marking the largest decline in decades [2][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Trade Disputes - The trade war initiated by U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods has resulted in retaliatory measures from Canada, severely affecting U.S. wine exports [3][6]. - Canada, being the largest market for U.S. wine, has seen exports plummet, with experts indicating that the ongoing trade disputes have plunged the industry into crisis [3][4]. - The American Association of Wine Economists highlighted that the expectation of tariffs benefiting U.S. wine producers has backfired, leading to significant losses [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The Ontario Liquor Control Board has removed all U.S. wines and spirits from shelves, reflecting a broader trend across Canadian provinces [6][9]. - A survey indicated that 69% of Canadian consumers have ceased purchasing U.S. alcoholic beverages, with a significant portion expressing no intention to return to these products [8][9]. - The sentiment against U.S. wines is particularly strong among older Canadians, with 84% of those over 60 unlikely to purchase U.S. wine in the future [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Industry Response - The overall decline in global wine demand over the past few years has exacerbated the impact of the Canadian market's closure on U.S. wine exports [7]. - Canadian consumers are increasingly opting for local and alternative wines, indicating a shift in market preferences that U.S. producers will struggle to regain [11]. - The competitive landscape of the North American wine industry is being reshaped, with Canadian and global producers stepping in to fill the void left by U.S. wine brands [11].

Group 1: US-EU Trade Negotiations - The deadline for US-EU trade negotiations is approaching, with unresolved tariff issues and significant internal divisions within the EU [1] - The US has set July 9 as the deadline for tariff suspension, after which EU exports to the US could face tariffs as high as 50% [1] - Current US tariffs include 50% on steel and aluminum products, 25% on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on other goods, causing substantial economic losses for Germany [1] Group 2: EU's Response to US Tariffs - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures in two phases, with the first phase targeting $210 billion worth of US goods and the second phase potentially affecting $950 billion worth of goods, including aircraft and automobiles [1] - The economic impact of a 50% tariff could affect $321 billion in US-EU trade, potentially reducing US GDP by nearly 0.6% and increasing inflation by over 0.3% [1] Group 3: EU's Concessions to China - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has softened her stance on rare earths, seeking expedited export licenses from China for EU companies [3] - The EU previously aligned with the US in criticizing China’s control over rare earths but is now recognizing the importance of Chinese supplies for European manufacturers [3] - China dominates the rare earth market, accounting for 61% of global extraction and 92% of refining, with the EU heavily reliant on Chinese imports [3] Group 4: Strategic Balancing by the EU - Von der Leyen aims to balance relations between the US and China, using China as leverage to negotiate better terms with the US [5] - The German automotive industry, which constitutes 5% of Germany's GDP, is particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, with significant exports to the US at stake [5] - The EU's approach may be complicated by the US's demands, which are perceived as unfair and potentially detrimental to EU interests [7] Group 5: Future Considerations for the EU - The EU must reassess its strategy to avoid alienating both the US and China, as trade relations with both are crucial for economic stability [7] - The upcoming EU-China summit presents an opportunity for the EU to clarify its position and negotiate terms that benefit its economic interests [7]