食品饮料 2025 年 05 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒底部建议加配，大众品三条思 路选股—行业周报》-2025.5.11 《内需提振预期强化，关注政策改善 可期—行业投资策略》-2025.5.8 《一季报白酒稳健增长，零食新品红 利表现突出—行业周报》-2025.5.5 暖意渐起，焕启新程 ——行业投资策略 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | 张思敏（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790524010001 | 证书编号：S0790123070080 | |  市场表现：食品饮料年初至今跑赢大盘 | | | 食品饮料跑赢大盘，零食板块表现较好。2025 年 1-4 月食品饮料板块上涨 0.5 ...

白酒：五一宴席场景表现积极，25 年磨底阶段酒企普遍求"稳"。本周白酒板块+2.34%，表现 强于食品饮料整体及沪深 300，或主要系 Q1 季报落地板块业绩压力峰已过。本周酒企陆续召 开业绩说明会，从各酒企 25 年目标制定情况来看，理性客观、务实稳健是主旋律，多数酒企 25 年目标相对"柔性"，行业整体目标中枢预计降至个位数。此外，据微酒多地调研反馈，五 一期间受益"双春年"民俗效应，宴席场景表现积极，婚宴动销同比增长，推动库存去化，渠 道资金压力有所缓解。当前（2025-05-10）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.97X，处于近10 年14.12% 的合理偏低水位，建议关注后续消费刺激政策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会，淡季核心高端 酒批价表现或为板块趋势变化催化剂。 啤酒&饮料：五一出行数据超预期，统一 Q1 高增，带动板块行情。本周啤酒板块涨跌幅+0.47%、 软饮料+0.07%，其中统一（+10.6%）、农夫（+6.0%）、华润饮料（+5.7%）涨幅靠前。五一出行 旅游数据景气度高，统一业绩超预期，带动饮料板块行情。据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假 期 5 天全国国内出游人次同比+6.4%，国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the dairy sector driven by favorable policies related to fertility, which are expected to boost demand. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to improve, leading to stabilization in milk prices [4]. - In the liquor segment, the focus is on high-end products and regional leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. The report notes that the white liquor sector is currently experiencing a bottoming out in valuations, with expectations for demand recovery supported by policy measures [4]. - The snack food sector continues to show high growth potential, with recommendations for companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Food. The report also emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant supply chain, suggesting investments in companies like Anjifood and Qianwei Yangchun [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.76% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [5][10]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included health products and baked goods, which increased by 5.09% and 4.25%, respectively [10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The report provides detailed pricing data for key liquor products, noting that the price of the 2024 Moutai original bottle is 2,190 yuan, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [20]. - In the beer sector, production for March 2025 reached 312.8 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 2% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as of April, with overall food and beverage prices showing a slight increase [55]. 4. Core Company Updates - Qingdao Beer plans to acquire 100% equity of Jimo Huangjiu from Xinhua Jin Group and Lujin Group for 666 million yuan [56]. - Baba Foods announced a cash dividend of 0.80 yuan per share, totaling 192 million yuan [56].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a strong upward trend on Monday, with notable performance in aerospace, consumer electronics, communication equipment, and robotics sectors, while precious metals, jewelry, bioproducts, and electricity sectors lagged behind [1] - The net profit growth rate for A-shares is expected to turn positive year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating significant recovery in small and mid-cap stocks, with TMT and consumer segments showing improved market conditions [1] - Short-term market outlook suggests a steady upward trend, supported by policy measures and liquidity easing, with technology growth and consumer recovery acting as dual driving forces [1] Group 2 - A-shares are likely to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, potentially breaking through resistance levels, driven by improved fundamental expectations [2] - Key drivers for the recent strong performance include policy and liquidity easing post the "May Day" holiday, along with improved risk appetite due to easing US-China tensions and unexpected tariff reductions [2] - The low trading volume in A-shares is attributed to concerns over economic fundamentals, but the recent tariff cuts may significantly enhance institutional risk appetite, potentially leading to increased trading activity and upward momentum [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal easing of tariff policies, suggesting a potential recovery in consumption and export sectors within the industry [3][12]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a weekly return of 1.01%, ranking 26th among 31 primary sub-industry indices, with medical devices leading at 1.67% [3][27]. - Recent government policies, such as the establishment of geriatric medicine departments in hospitals and new regulations for drug wholesale management in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, are expected to positively impact the industry [3][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance over the past month was a return of 4.77%, ranking 19th among 31 primary sub-industry indices [3][14]. - The sector's current PE (TTM) is 26.29 times, which is below the historical average of 31.15 times, indicating a relatively low valuation [20][21]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes that the recent three-month performance shows a decline of 1.88%, while the six-month performance indicates a drop of 7.71% [15][16]. - The report suggests that the easing of tariff impacts may lead to a valuation recovery in specific sub-sectors such as CXO, raw materials, and medical devices [3][12]. 3. Export Industry Chain - The report recommends focusing on the export industry chain, particularly in the CXO sector, with key companies including WuXi AppTec and others highlighted for potential investment [3][12]. - In the raw materials sector, companies like Junshi Biosciences and others are suggested for attention [3][12]. 4. Consumption Recovery - The report anticipates that monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions will enhance macroeconomic consumption [3][12]. - Specific sectors for investment include ophthalmology and dental care, medical aesthetics, traditional Chinese medicine, and retail pharmacy leaders [3][12]. 5. Industry Dynamics - Recent policy developments include the release of guidelines for geriatric medicine and new regulations for drug wholesale management, which are expected to foster healthy development in the pharmaceutical distribution sector [3][47]. - Notable industry news includes collaborations between major pharmaceutical companies and health platforms, as well as significant investments in local production facilities [47].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Short-term consumption weakness has led to a slight decline in pig prices, but high prices for piglets and sows indicate optimistic expectations for the future [4][6] - The pig farming sector shows low valuation opportunities, while the pet sector continues to strengthen the logic of domestic brand rise [7][25] - The overall agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.93 percentage points during the week [29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - After the May Day holiday, consumer support was insufficient, leading to a slight decline in national pig prices. As of May 9, the average selling price of live pigs was 14.79 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week, a decrease of 0.14% [4][15] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 148,800 pigs, a decrease of 780 pigs from the previous week [4][15] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation opportunities, with the supply side not yet recovering to the levels of the same period in 2023. The demand side is supported by macro policies driving consumption recovery [25] - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, Huadong Food, and Tiankang Biological [7][25] Market Performance (May 5-9) - The agricultural index rose by 0.99%, underperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with the fishery sector leading the gains [29][32] - Notable stock performances included *ST Jiawo (+13.47%), Guotou Zhonglu (+12.05%), and Xuelong Biological (+11.04%) [29][35] Price Tracking (May 5-9) - As of May 9, the national average price for live pigs was 14.82 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets was 36.87 yuan/kg, also down 0.01 yuan/kg [41] - The average profit for self-bred pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/head week-on-week [41] Key News (May 5-9) - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation opinion to enhance the overall effectiveness of the agricultural science and technology innovation system [36]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the textile manufacturing sector due to the easing of US tariff expectations, which is expected to benefit textile manufacturers [1][10][11]. Core Insights - The easing of US tariffs is favorable for textile manufacturing companies, as recent statements from US officials indicate a potential reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, which could lead to increased orders from overseas clients and improved domestic factory utilization rates [1][10][11]. - The partnership between Taobo and the professional outdoor brand Norrøna is expected to enhance Taobo's position in the outdoor segment, leveraging Norrøna's brand strength and Taobo's operational capabilities to drive growth in the Chinese market [2][13][15]. - The apparel retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, which is below the overall consumer market performance, primarily affected by unusual weather in March [3][16]. Industry Data Tracking - In April, the export value of clothing and accessories decreased by 1.17% year-on-year, with a significant decline in order visibility for manufacturers following the introduction of new US tariff policies [1][11]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices, indicating a mixed outlook for input costs in the textile industry [3][19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, companies like Hailan Home are recommended due to their adaptability to consumer trends and strong profitability potential. Taobo is expected to benefit from the recovery of major brands like Adidas and Nike [4][22]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, leading textile manufacturers are advised as they possess strong risk resilience and are likely to gain market share amid ongoing tariff adjustments [4][22]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 3.47%, ranking sixth among 28 major industry sectors, with notable stock performances from companies like Huafang Co. and Yingfeng Co. [5][23][29]. - Recent announcements include Taizhou New Material's guarantee for its subsidiaries, indicating ongoing financial activities within the sector [6][32].

相关研究报告 《内需提振预期强化，关注政策改善 可期—行业投资策略》-2025.5.8 《一季报白酒稳健增长，零食新品红 利表现突出—行业周报》-2025.5.5 《基金持仓更加集中，零食板块表现 较好—行业周报》-2025.4.27 白酒底部建议加配，大众品三条思路选股 ——行业周报 食品饮料 2025 年 05 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 食品饮料 沪深300 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：承压基调下的边际改善 5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 1.8%，一级子行业排名第 19，跑输沪 深 300 约 0.2pct，子行业中保健品（+5.1%）、烘焙食品（+4.2%）、预加工食品 （+2.5%）表现相对领先。上市公司财报披露结束后，市场进入业绩真空期，市 场风险偏好提升，食品饮料跑输大盘。往 2025 年全年展望，食品饮料行业主线 仍是消费复苏。2025 年我们更多期望经济活跃度提升带来商务消 ...

Group 1 - The event "I am a shareholder | Entering the Shanghai-listed company - Gansu Guofang Industrial and Trade (Group) Co., Ltd." was held to encourage investors to exercise their shareholder rights and improve investor relations management [2] - Guofang Group, established in 1996 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in September 2017, has evolved from a single department store into a regional commercial chain leader covering various formats such as shopping centers, supermarkets, and outlets [2] - During the event, investors visited Guofang Group's headquarters and flagship project, gaining insights into the company's operational details, including planning adjustments, brand layout, refined operations, and digital facility applications [2] Group 2 - In a discussion session, the company emphasized its strategies to enhance profitability and core competitiveness through optimizing business formats and strengthening supply chain management amid consumer recovery [3] - The company believes that regional retail enterprises possess unique investment value due to their local advantages and refined operations in the context of consumer segmentation [3] - The event concluded with positive feedback from participants, highlighting the importance of market feedback for continuous operational optimization and better performance for investors [3]

食品饮料：五一假期消费市场活 跃，带动餐饮市场恢复 2025 年 5 月 9 日 看好/维持 食品饮料 行业报告 根据商务部 5 日发布的数据显示，"五一"假期全国消费市场繁荣活跃。 据商务部商务大数据监测，假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。其中餐饮文旅市场红火，假期全国重点监测餐饮企业销售额同比增长 8.7%，显示出较强的恢复趋势。 今年五一整体呈现文旅消费双旺的局面，根据去哪儿统计数据，"五一" 假期县城成为"反向旅游"最火目的地。平台上酒店预订遍布 1230 个县， 县城酒店预订量同比增长 30%。从客源地看，一线和新一线城市居民占比超 过六成。旅游消费的旺盛直接推动餐饮市场的恢复，根据商务部统计，假期 全国重点监测餐饮企业销售额同比增长 8.7%，较 2025 年春节全国重点零售 和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 4.1%的增速快 4.6 个百分点，显示出强劲的恢 复。 五一假期呈现的消费市场活跃，我们认为与各地落实中央促进消费内需 政策加大对内需的刺激力度有关，餐饮受到旅游带动呈现较好的恢复。我们 认为随着促内需政策的进一步落实，消费会有进一步的恢复。特别是跟旅游、 文化产业相关的餐饮行业 ...