当所有人紧盯中美芯片战、贸易战时，一场更隐秘的货币战争已悄然打响！ 中国正向着美元霸权发起挑战，甚至可以说是在创造一个 "第二美联储"。 11 月 13 号，中国在沙特发行了 20 亿美元的主权债，这一看似普通的金融事件，实则蕴含着巨大的能量。它获得了超 20 倍，近 400 亿美元的认购，并且 发行利率与美债基本持平。 这看似寻常的融资动作，实则是中国金融战的"诺曼底登陆"，一套组合拳正重击美元霸权七寸！ 而发行美元债，就如同在美元体系内开辟了一条新战线，中国能凭借自身外汇储备信用发行美债，与美国美债形成竞争，影响美联储利率政策，打破美元 环流闭环，削弱美元收割世界的能力。 魔幻操作背后的三重颠覆 对冲外汇储备风险 ：美债规模不断膨胀，已突破 37 万亿，且美国还在疯狂印钱，中国庞大的外汇储备面临加速贬值风险，甚至有被美国没收的可 能。俄罗斯6000亿被冻教训在前，美元资产=定时炸弹。 为何我国要发行美元债：背后是高超的金融谋略 通过发行美元债，将借来的美元转借给 "一带一路" 国家，用这些国家有价值的资产抵债，把外汇储备变成对欧美国家的欠债，等美元贬值时，可用贬值 的美元还债，从而变相保值外汇储备。 其实 ...

特朗普做不到一天之内结束俄乌冲突，但可以只用100天的时间，彻底埋葬美国80年来一手构建起的世界霸权。 4月的最后一天，特朗普迎来自己执政第100天的日子。在美国的政治传统中，100天是一个非常重要的时间节点，这100天特朗普干了什么，基本决定了他未 来4年的执政，以及外界对其的评价。 n 利用 STANTAL CONSULT es and and the and and and the states aller of the state of the state STERNET CONSULERS the state of the t the station Call Art 1 alon Kan Relation the first nders of the are o de and and 【我要在我国家庭的事情】 特朗普的百日新政，直接动摇了美元霸权的根基。美元指数暴跌、美股暴跌、美债不断被抛售。世界去美元化正在加速，尤其是以中国为首的金砖国家，人 民币跨境支付的占比逐渐提高，越来越多的国家加入到了抛弃美元的行列中。 那么外部环境不断恶化，美国内部是不是好起来了？毕竟特朗普的目的，是要让"美国再次伟大 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced the "most severe" secondary sanctions on Iranian oil, targeting all countries and companies engaged in energy transactions with Tehran, effectively creating a "choose one" dilemma for global oil trade [1] - The sanctions aim to cut off Iran's annual oil revenue of $60 billion, which is intended to disrupt its nuclear program and military expansion while reshaping global energy pricing power [1] - The sanctions could lead to a global oil supply gap of 1.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to three days' demand from all European refineries [1] Group 2 - Iran is responding by establishing an "energy eastern corridor" through Russia and deepening trade mechanisms with India and Pakistan, with non-dollar trade accounting for 78% of its transactions in the first four months of the year [3] - The sanctions are pushing the global energy market towards fragmentation, with potential diesel supply shortages in Europe and energy poverty crises in developing Asian countries if sanctions persist [3] - Historical evidence suggests that unilateral sanctions often escalate conflicts rather than resolve issues, indicating that cooperation based on mutual benefit is essential for peace and stability [3]

美国面临债务违约，中国抛售大量美债，美元霸权是否就此倒下？ 国庆佳节，14亿中国人都在为祖国庆祝生日。而大洋彼岸的美国政府即将面临关门危机。原来美国债务上限即将在10月份到期，美国财政部长多次提醒国会 尽快采取措施应对，否则美国将面临债务违约问题。 而每在如此动荡之时，中国方面正在大量抛售美国债券，这是否意味着美元体系就此倒下？中国如果抛售手上所有美债，美国是否会遭受严重打击？今天就 让我们来一起走进美债。 先来看一看一份关于中国美债的数据，截止到2021年7月份，中国持有美债1.0683万亿美元。从3月份到6月份，中国4个月内累计减持423亿美元。此前24个 月中国已经连续抛售累计1,753亿美债。不难看出中国在近两年的时间中都在国际市场上不断抛售自己的美债，而这一切的目的都是为了去美元化，在如今 金融环境动荡的情况下，中国需要减少自己的美债储备，增加本国央行的黄金储备。以保证国民经济在面临大动荡时依旧可以保持稳定，避免被其他国家收 割财富。 从另一方面来看，中国抛售美债的时间要早于新冠疫情爆发。在新冠疫情爆发之后，全球市场受到强烈震动，美国为了缓解压力。开始了印钞放水的措施， 而这样的行为也让中国对美元的 ...

5月3日，被誉为"投资界春晚"的伯克希尔年度股东大会召开。 今年，巴菲特就将年满95岁，这也是他执掌公司的第60个年头。聚焦这场股东大会，凤凰"K说联盟"成 员、国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员邵宇，凤凰"K说联盟"成员、中航基金副总经理兼首席投资 官邓海清，国泰海通证券首席宏观分析师梁中华，在直播中展开了对谈，解密巴菲特的现金部署与接班 布局，对时下热门的关税战、黄金热也进行了探讨。 01 美股还没到巴菲特抄底的心理价位？ 在2024年，巴菲特大幅削减美股持仓，转而持有更多现金，再次精准逃顶。在去年年底，伯克希尔公司 的现金储备超过3300亿美元，创历史新高。在当下变幻的时局中，巴菲特的态度具有"风向标的作用"， 外界关注着他将如何分配手上的巨额现金。 在邵宇看来，巴菲特的下一步动作，还会继续观望，等待全球经贸变局告一段落，大局有一些轮廓后再 进行操作。同时，巴菲特可能会关注新兴市场资产配置的机会，例如中国和拉丁美洲这些具有"性价 比"的资产。此外，他特地提到，巴菲特的处境相对特殊，作为美国投资人，很难做空自己的国家，这 让他处于矛盾的境地，以致于出现了现金囤积。 邓海清则指出，美股估值在去年已创历史新高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around Warren Buffett's investment strategies, particularly his cash reserves and potential future moves in the context of current market conditions [2][3][6] - Buffett has significantly reduced his holdings in U.S. stocks, increasing cash reserves to over $330 billion, indicating a cautious approach amid high market valuations [2][3] - Experts express differing opinions on whether ordinary investors should consider bottom-fishing in U.S. stocks, with some advocating caution due to high valuations and uncertain economic conditions [3][4][5] Group 2 - There is speculation about whether Buffett will further invest in the AI industry, with experts noting the inherent uncertainties in technology stocks and the need for lower valuations before making investments [6][7][8] - The discussion highlights a generational shift in investment strategies at Berkshire Hathaway, with a potential increase in technology and AI investments under new management [7][8] - Concerns are raised about the challenges Buffett may face in adapting to a changing global landscape, particularly regarding the decline of U.S. hegemony and the rise of alternative economic powers [8][9] Group 3 - The article discusses Buffett's historical reluctance to invest in gold, contrasting it with the current surge in gold prices driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening of the dollar [10][11][12] - Experts present varied perspectives on gold as an investment, with some suggesting it could serve as a hedge against currency risks, while others argue it lacks the potential for significant returns compared to other assets [11][12] - The potential for gold to play a role in a diversified asset allocation strategy is acknowledged, especially in light of the evolving monetary landscape [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in the perception and demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting a trend of selling off these assets by major investors, including Japan and Europe, amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty [2][4][5]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury bonds are losing their status as a safe haven, with major investors like Japan rapidly selling off their holdings, with reports indicating Japan is offloading $1.4 million per minute [5][10]. - The recent auction of U.S. Treasury bonds saw a 23% failure rate, indicating a lack of demand that was previously common [10]. - The U.S. Treasury is considering a controversial plan to replace existing bonds with 100-year "zombie bonds," which could exacerbate the financial situation [12][14]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is a notable shift in investment strategies, with a recommendation to sell U.S. stocks and buy gold as a safer alternative [2][4]. - Recent capital flows show an outflow of $800 million from U.S. stocks and an inflow of $3.3 billion into gold, indicating a preference for tangible assets over U.S. dollar-denominated assets [5]. - The volatility in the market has led to algorithmic trading systems failing as 10-year Treasury yields surpassed 5% [7]. Group 3: Global Economic Implications - The article suggests that the U.S. is facing a credibility crisis, with even allies like Japan questioning the value of holding U.S. debt [9][14]. - China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have reached a 15-year low, while its gold reserves are increasing, reflecting a strategic shift away from U.S. debt [7][12]. - The ongoing economic strategies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. are backfiring, leading to a loss of confidence in U.S. financial instruments [9][16].

Core Viewpoint - The impending $6.6 trillion U.S. debt crisis is a significant challenge for the Trump administration, with rising interest rates and global sell-offs complicating the situation [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - The $6.6 trillion debt translates to approximately $18,000 per American citizen, highlighting the severity of the financial burden [1]. - Historically, the U.S. has managed large amounts of debt through a cycle of issuing new debt to pay off old debt, a practice that has been effective for over a century [3]. - The current financial landscape is different, with rising interest rates leading to a decrease in demand for U.S. debt, complicating the refinancing process [9]. Group 2: Trump's Economic Policies - Trump's initial efforts to reduce government spending included a failed audit initiative led by Elon Musk, which did not yield significant savings and resulted in increased debt [5]. - The introduction of a "golden card" for wealthy immigrants aimed to generate revenue but ultimately failed to attract buyers, further exacerbating the financial situation [7]. - Trump's trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs, have alienated allies and led to a decline in the value of the dollar, undermining confidence in U.S. debt [9][11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The rise in U.S. debt interest rates to 5% indicates a lack of confidence among investors, leading to a sell-off of U.S. bonds [9]. - The Federal Reserve's independence has been tested as Trump pressures for lower interest rates, but the Fed remains unresponsive, causing further market instability [9]. - The global shift towards alternative currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, poses a threat to the dominance of the U.S. dollar, with countries increasingly opting for non-dollar transactions [11].

Core Viewpoint - China's record import of 7.3 million barrels of crude oil from Canada in March reflects a significant shift in energy trade dynamics amid the US-China trade war, impacting both countries' economies [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Trade Dynamics - The US has imposed a 125% additional tariff on Chinese imports, aiming to suppress China's energy demand, which led to a drastic reduction in China's imports of US crude oil and LNG, with LNG imports dropping to zero and crude oil imports plummeting by 90% from 29 million barrels per month in 2024 to 3 million barrels in March 2025 [1][3]. - Canada has become a new key supplier for China, with the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline facilitating increased crude oil exports, resulting in a significant rise in imports from Canada [3]. - The US is facing substantial losses in oil orders, estimated at several billion dollars monthly, as well as negative impacts on related supply chains and employment [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Trade Changes - The trade war has also affected agricultural exports, with US exports of soybeans to China dropping by 54% year-on-year, while Australia and Brazil have seen significant increases in their beef and poultry exports to China [3]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - President Trump has shown signs of softening his stance on tariffs, indicating a desire to lower them to prevent further trade stagnation with China [4]. - Canada is navigating a complex situation, benefiting economically from Chinese orders while politically aligning with the US, creating a contradictory stance [6]. - China has signed a 15-year LNG agreement with the UAE worth approximately 700 billion RMB, marking a significant step in energy cooperation and challenging the dominance of the US dollar [6]. Group 4: Strategic Energy Positioning - China's actions demonstrate a robust capability in energy strategic planning, reducing reliance on US energy and diversifying supply sources, thereby enhancing its energy security [8][9]. - The shift in energy trade dynamics is contributing to a more multipolar global energy market, diminishing the US's previous dominance in LNG exports [9].

Core Viewpoint - The collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, marked a significant turning point in global finance, revealing the fragility of the financial system and the consequences of unchecked greed and speculation in the housing market [1][16]. Group 1: Background and Causes - The financial crisis had roots in decades of economic policies that favored deregulation and speculative practices, particularly during the early 21st century when American households became heavily involved in real estate speculation [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cuts led to a surge in subprime lending, with banks offering loans to individuals with poor credit histories, creating a bubble in the housing market [5][12]. - Financial instruments like mortgage-backed securities were misrated as AAA, allowing banks to offload risky loans onto global investors, exacerbating the financial instability [5][12]. Group 2: The Collapse of Lehman Brothers - Lehman Brothers attempted to mitigate its exposure by seeking external capital but was ultimately denied assistance by the U.S. government, leading to its bankruptcy [14][16]. - The bankruptcy triggered a chain reaction across financial markets, resulting in a loss of approximately $30 trillion in global stock market value within a year [18]. Group 3: Aftermath and Impact - In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented aggressive monetary policies, including printing $4.5 trillion, which flooded emerging markets with capital but also led to significant currency devaluations in various countries [18][20]. - The selective rescue of financial institutions, particularly Goldman Sachs, highlighted the disparity in how financial aid was distributed, benefiting a few while leaving many ordinary citizens in distress [22][24]. - The long-term consequences of the crisis continue to affect millions, with many still suffering from the fallout of the housing market collapse, while financial institutions have returned to profitability and high executive bonuses [24][26].