Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report indicates that precious metal prices are undergoing high - level adjustments after a hawkish interest rate cut. In the medium - to long - term, the trend may be bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver face significant adjustment pressure. The report maintains a strategy of buying on dips and advises cautious holding of existing long positions [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Wednesday saw significant intraday fluctuations in precious metal prices. London gold and silver closed with negative daily candlesticks, indicating short - term adjustment pressure. After the Fed's interest rate decision, although the market initially pushed up London gold prices, they quickly fell due to Powell's hawkish remarks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3694.6 per ounce, down 0.82%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $41.995 per ounce, down 2.15%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 837.64 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9933 yuan per kilogram, down 1.76% [2]. - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE, SGX, and CME gold and silver contracts, as well as the SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads and the CME gold - silver ratio [7]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.7%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 79.9%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 49.6%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 39.8% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons to 975.66 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.23 tons to 15189.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1221.4 tons, while SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons in the week ending September 12 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. US President Trump will conduct a state visit to the UK [4]. 4. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings [16]. 5. Other Market Data - The table presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].

Core Insights - The market may have misinterpreted the Federal Reserve's latest signals, viewing Chairman Powell's "risk management" language as hawkish, while details suggest a dovish stance with potential for two more rate cuts this year [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, Powell attributed the decision to "risk management," which Citigroup interprets as a guide for the market to prepare for future actions [1] - Citigroup believes that Powell's comments indicate a baseline scenario of completing a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end [2] - The FOMC's statement included a new emphasis on rising "downside risks to employment," confirming concerns about the labor market [3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Rate Path - The dot plot revealed a downward shift in rate projections, with 10 out of 19 participants lowering their forecasts, suggesting three more 25 basis point cuts this year [3] - Despite a slight increase in the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast, the downward adjustment in the rate path highlights a dovish shift [3] - Citigroup expects the Fed to lower the policy rate to a range of 3.00-3.25% over the coming months, totaling a 125 basis point reduction in this easing cycle [6] Group 3: Employment vs. Inflation Concerns - The focus of the Fed's policy is shifting from inflation risks to employment risks, with Powell noting that hiring slowdowns are due to both supply and demand factors [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the cooling labor market will be a key driver for the Fed's future actions [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yingda Futures successfully held a training event aimed at enhancing risk management capabilities for state-owned enterprises in the electrical equipment manufacturing sector, aligning with the regulatory requirements set by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) [1][3]. - The training focused on understanding SASAC's regulatory requirements and audit points regarding financial derivatives, promoting the use of futures markets for hedging, and integrating business, finance, and technology to strengthen risk management capabilities [3]. - A total of 29 companies from the electrical equipment manufacturing industry participated in the training, with over 50 attendees expressing that the event provided significant guidance on conducting hedging business legally and effectively utilizing financial derivatives to mitigate risks [3]. Group 2 - Yingda Futures, as an integral part of the State Grid Corporation's comprehensive financial platform, leverages its background in both the electricity industry and financial services to enhance risk management and operational stability for real enterprises [4]. - The company aims to continue its commitment to serving the real economy by providing high-quality services, focusing on the mission of managing price risks and optimizing resource allocation within the futures market [4]. - Yingda Futures plans to deepen the integration of finance and industry, enhancing its core competitiveness and establishing a distinctive brand for energy and power state-owned enterprises [4].

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a downward trend on September 18, with SHFE gold quoted at 824.54 CNY per gram, down 1.70%, and SHFE silver at 9823.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.06% [1] - International precious metals also declined, with COMEX gold priced at 3670.30 CNY per ounce, down 0.66%, and COMEX silver at 41.65 USD per ounce, down 0.82% [1] - The opening prices for SHFE gold and silver were 835.34 CNY per gram and 9924.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 839.00 CNY and 10009.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with projections indicating two more rate cuts this year, which is an increase from the previous forecast [3] - There was a contradiction in the Fed's statements, acknowledging a weakening labor market while also predicting rising inflation, leading to market volatility [3] - Following the Fed's dovish statement, U.S. Treasury yields initially fell, with the 10-year yield dropping below 4%, but later surged after Chairman Powell's remarks, increasing by 6.3 basis points [3] Group 3 - COMEX gold experienced significant volatility, closing at 3694.6 USD per ounce, down 0.82%, while SHFE gold closed at 832.64 CNY per gram, down 0.76% [4] - The price of gold reached new highs during the session but fell over 60 USD as the dollar strengthened, indicating weakened upward momentum for gold prices [4] - The market is expected to continue a high-level consolidation phase due to the hawkish tone of Powell's speech [4]

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：财通证券研究） 报告正文 如期降息25bp。本次议息会议中，美联储决定将基准利率下调25bp至在4%-4.25%的目标范围内，并按原有节奏继续执行缩表。在本次会议中，特朗普新 任命的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）是唯一反对者，认为应降息50bp。9月FOMC点阵图显示，略微过半的官员认为今年年内仍有至少两次 降息，但明年降息或仅一次。声明还指出，本次降息是鉴于"风险平衡转变"（the shift in the balance of risks），劳动力市场不再稳固，而是"就业增长放 缓，失业率略有上升"（Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up）。 美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，今天的降息是"向更中立的政策立场"的转变，或可视为"风险管理"（risk management）削减。降息50bp的观点"没有 得到广泛支持"（wasn't widespread support at all）。关于QT，鲍威尔表示，目前仍是"储备充裕"（abundant reserves）的状态 ...

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%[4] - Slightly over half of the FOMC officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts this year, while only one cut is expected next year[4] - The decision to cut rates was based on a "shift in the balance of risks," with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate edging up[4] Employment and Inflation Outlook - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since late 2021, indicating a shift towards a surplus in the labor market[7] - The Fed maintained its 2025 unemployment rate forecast at 4.5% and PCE inflation at 3%[10] - Inflation has increased, with commodity prices contributing significantly to this rise, although the increases are expected to be moderate and possibly one-time shocks[4][10] Economic Growth Projections - The Fed revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.6% and 2026 to 1.8%[11] - Economic activity is described as slowing, with consumer spending declining in most regions due to economic uncertainty and tariffs[11] - Rate cuts may lower credit costs, potentially boosting consumer confidence and stabilizing the economy next year[11] Market Reactions and Risks - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose but then fell, with bond yields increasing and the dollar index fluctuating[13] - Risks include higher-than-expected inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and a sharper-than-anticipated economic downturn[16]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed weak intraday oscillations, with the overall non - ferrous metals market relatively soft and no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - There are still supports in the new energy sector. The nickel salt supply is tight, and price increases are frequent, expected to remain strong. The nickel - iron price is firm, but high - price transactions have declined [4]. - The stainless steel futures price once fell below 12,900, and the spot market offered discounts. There was some improvement in transactions, but the fundamental momentum is currently calming down, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - level trends [4]. - Although the takeover of a small part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine has limited impact on actual production, it has raised concerns about the nickel ore supply [4][6]. - The news of Antam and CATL promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia supports the long - term demand for nickel in the new energy field [6] Key Points by Category Price Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.61% and a historical percentile of 1.1% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 121,990 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 122,180 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 122,370 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,445 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [8] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,985 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - three contract is 13,060 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [11] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [12]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, an increase of 2,034 tons [12]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 902,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons [13]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [13] News and Event Analysis Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements such as iron and cobalt [7]. - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [7]. - Stainless steel inventories have decreased for several consecutive weeks [7]. - The takeover of part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group [7]. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia [7][6] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventories [7]. - Sino - US tariff disturbances [7]. - Uncertainty in the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased [7]. - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [7]. - Relatively weak stainless steel spot transactions [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to $3727.3 per ounce during Asian trading on September 17, but later fell due to hawkish comments from Powell despite the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year after a nine-month hiatus [1] - The Fed also lowered the excess reserve rate and the reserve rate by 25 basis points to 4.15% and 4.00%, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the market experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, leading to profit-taking and a technical pullback in gold and silver prices [2] - The short-term technical pullback is viewed as a healthy adjustment that does not alter the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals [2] Group 3: Price Support Levels - Key support levels to watch are $3550 for gold and $40 for silver; if these levels hold, there is potential for a rebound in prices [2] - The continuation of the Fed's easing cycle, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings could support a recovery in gold and silver prices [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - It is suggested to take advantage of the pullback for gradual positioning, maintaining a long-term bullish perspective on precious metals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, primarily due to slower job growth and economic uncertainty [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Economic Indicators - The decision to cut rates comes amid rising inflation and disappointing job growth, with recent indicators showing a slowdown in economic activity and increased risks in the labor market [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds, and agency mortgage-backed securities, maintaining the current pace of balance sheet reduction [1]. - The dot plot indicates that Fed officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, with further cuts of 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][4]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Officials - Newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Milan is the only dissenting voice, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points implemented [1][4]. - Among the 19 officials, 7 predict no further cuts this year, while 9 believe there will be two more 25 basis point cuts, indicating a divided outlook on future rate adjustments [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Implications - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) while the Nasdaq fell by 72.63 points (0.33%) [7]. - Gold prices have seen significant increases, with a 100% rise over the past two years and a 45% increase this year, reflecting market expectations of further rate cuts [6][10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's dovish stance may benefit risk assets, but caution that political pressures and economic data could influence future rate decisions [10][11].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since January 2025 [1] - The decision was influenced by signs of slowing economic activity, job growth, and rising inflation [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut is a "risk management" measure and not a response to political pressure [1] Economic Indicators - The Fed noted an increase in downside risks to employment, with job growth slowing and a slight rise in the unemployment rate [2] - Recent data indicates signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, which contributed to the decision to restart rate cuts [2] - Powell highlighted that the changes in the labor market are not solely due to immigration factors but are also linked to a noticeable slowdown in demand [2] Rate Cut Context - The Fed had previously cut rates three times last year, with a total reduction of 100 basis points, but maintained a steady stance this year until now [3] - Powell acknowledged that new tariff policies have raised some prices, contributing to a projected rise in inflation, but this effect is expected to be temporary [3] Future Rate Expectations - The rate decision was supported by 11 out of 12 voting members, with one member advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [4] - The Fed anticipates two more 25 basis point cuts within the year, with projections for additional cuts in the following years [4] - The Fed has revised its GDP growth expectations upward and adjusted unemployment and inflation forecasts, expecting inflation to return to the long-term target of 2% by 2028 [4]