智通财经获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的军事 或政治干预威胁，以及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供应 流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪走 火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将创下自2023年7月份以来最大规模 的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美 元上方区域，不过之后不久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破70美 元与略上方徘徊。与此同时，已经下跌多日的美元指数则显著反弹，对大宗商品价格造成重大压制力。 而北美原油定价基准——西德克萨斯中质原油(即WTI原油)期货价格则接近65美元。美国总统特朗普的 最新表态已从因德黑兰对抗议者的致命镇压而计划军事惩罚伊朗，转向本周寻求达成一项新的核协议， 然而双方谈妥的概率仍然非常低。 尽管市场仍然预期2026至2027年全球原油供应增加的同时需求可能将持续萎靡，将对不断国际油价形成 下行压力，但是特朗普政府对伊朗的持续 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 冯紫彤 1月30日，A股市场贵金属板块遭遇重挫，多支追踪黄金产业链股票的ETF开盘即大幅走低，并于盘中跌停。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，截至午间收盘，黄金股票ETF（517400）、黄金股ETF(159562)、黄金股票ETF（159321）、黄金股ETF（517520）均封 于跌停板。 与此同时，黄金ETF（518880）与上海金ETF（518600）的跌幅也超过了6%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | | | 涨幅％ ↑ | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | | T | 2.229 | -10.01 | -0.248 | | 159562 | 黄金股ETF | + | Q | 3.069 | -10.00 | -0.341 | | 159321 | 黄金股票ETF | 北 | Q | 2.197 | -10.00 | -0.244 | | 517520 | 黄金股ETF | 1 | Q | 2.819 | -9.99 | -0.313 | | 512400 | 有色金属ETF ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4% at 2,831 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.09% at 3,307 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with an increasing risk of the US striking Iran. Coupled with the overall enthusiastic sentiment in commodities, oil prices rose again yesterday, driving up the prices of FU and LU. Among them, FU is more elastic to the Iran conflict [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has improved marginally recently, with spot discounts, calendar spreads, and crack spreads strengthening significantly, and downstream demand performing relatively well [2] - After the US gradually controls Venezuelan oil resources, domestic asphalt refineries need to find alternative raw materials, and fuel oil is one of the options. According to shipping schedule data, the arrival volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in China is expected to increase in January and February [2] - As the geopolitical situation in Iran heats up, the regional fuel oil supply faces potential threats from geopolitical conflicts, which constitutes the main upward risk in the current market. However, if the situation in Iran eases, FU does not have the momentum to continue strengthening [2] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market contradictions of low-sulfur fuel oil are limited, mainly following the passive rise of the crude oil end. Recently, the crack spread has been oscillating strongly, but there is no clear trend [2] - With the dynamic changes in the Dangote and Azur refinery units, the supply in Nigeria and Kuwait has increased significantly. In addition, after the widening of the east-west spread, the volume of arbitrage cargoes may increase in February, and the local market pressure may increase [2] - Looking forward, the contradictions of surplus production capacity and the replacement of the demand share in the marine fuel sector still exist, which will be a continuous upward resistance. However, based on the current valuation level, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low-sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation. Recently, the spread of low-sulfur fuel oil to gasoline and diesel has rebounded, partially reflecting the diversion of raw materials by RFCC units, resulting in a marginal convergence of the premium [2] Group 3: Strategy High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Spread Trading - No specific strategy [3] Calendar Spread - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low levels [3] Futures-Spot Arbitrage - No specific strategy [3] Options - No specific strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a historic surge driven by multiple factors, reshaping the global precious metals landscape, with domestic silver futures rising by 57.93% and international spot silver prices exceeding $109 per ounce, marking a 13-year high [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts and a declining dollar are key drivers of the current silver rally, with the U.S. inflation rate dropping to 2.8% and unemployment rising to 4.3%, leading to a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut in June [2] - The dollar index has fallen below 96, a four-year low, enhancing the appeal of silver priced in dollars due to lower holding costs [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has reached a historical low of 45.5, prompting speculative investments in silver as it acts as a "shadow asset" to gold, with significant inflows into silver funds [3] - The COMEX silver futures market has seen record high long positions, with a single-day surge of 8.51%, indicating strong speculative interest [6] Group 3: Supply and Demand - Global silver inventories have dropped to 233 tons, sufficient for only 1.2 months of consumption, while China's new export policy has reduced global supply by 4,500-5,000 tons [4] - Industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, with an expected installation of 600GW in 2026, leading to a significant increase in silver usage [4][8] Group 4: Geopolitical Influences - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and risks of U.S. government shutdown are driving safe-haven investments into precious metals [5] Group 5: Investment Trends - The largest silver ETF, SLV, increased its holdings by 210 tons, surpassing $20 billion in assets, while domestic silver futures funds have had to suspend subscriptions due to high demand [7] - The shift from copper to silver in electronic applications is expected to create an additional demand of 30-50 million tons, altering traditional supply-demand dynamics [8] Group 6: Risks and Signals - The current gold-silver ratio of 45.5 is significantly below the historical average of 60, indicating potential selling pressure on silver if gold prices adjust [9] - Concerns over inventory levels and potential tariff changes could impact silver prices, with COMEX inventories down 70% year-on-year [10] - Technical indicators suggest that silver is in an overbought condition, with RSI levels above 80 and volatility at a historical high [11][12]

如上图所示，原油势将创下多个月以来的最强劲涨势——原油在从伊朗到委内瑞拉的地缘政治风险推动 下大举反弹，但是在市场避险情绪影响之下周五有所回调。 美国总统特朗普呼吁伊朗参与核谈判，而德黑兰方面则警告将采取报复措施，这无疑引发了人们对美伊 紧张局势再度升级的担忧。市场关注的焦点在于这些紧张局势可能对霍尔木兹海峡航运造成的影响。霍 尔木兹海峡是伊朗和阿拉伯半岛之间的一条狭窄通道，对全球能源流动至关重要，每天都有大量运输原 油和液化天然气的油轮通过。 智通财经APP获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的 军事或政治干预威胁，以及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供 应流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪 走火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将创下自2023年7月份以来最大规 模的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美 元上方区域，不过之后不久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破7 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend despite short-term fluctuations, driven by geopolitical tensions, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, and ongoing central bank purchases [3][4] - The current bullish trend in gold is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainties, and the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which collectively support a long-term bullish outlook for gold [3][4] - Short-term price targets for gold are set at $6,000, with expectations of reaching $7,500 within the year and potentially $10,000 by 2029, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [3][4] Group 2 - The gold market is currently experiencing a significant rally, with prices reaching historical highs, although a major correction has occurred recently, which does not alter the overall bullish outlook [3][4] - Technical analysis suggests that while gold prices are in an overbought position and may face short-term correction risks, the overall trend remains bullish, providing opportunities for strategic entry points [4] - The upcoming week is expected to see gold prices influenced by short-term fluctuations, with a focus on maintaining a bullish outlook despite potential adjustments [4]

智通财经APP获悉，由于大宗商品交易员们权衡美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗与古巴本土不断升级的军事或政治干预威胁，以 及任何潜在的双方敌对行动将如何影响中东与拉美地区的原油以及石油成品供应流，尤其是交易员们愈发担忧全球原油与天然 气海上运输要道——中东霍尔木兹海峡可能因美伊擦枪走火而陷入紧急封锁，国际原油价格基准——布伦特原油期货价格势将 创下自2023年7月份以来最大规模的月度涨幅。 最新数据显示，布伦特原油在周四自7月以来首次升破每桶70美元关口后，在亚盘初期仍然维持在70美元上方区域，不过之后不 久便跟随铜、黄金以及白银等金属价格而下跌，但跌幅不到1%，在跌破70美元与略上方徘徊。与此同时，已经下跌多日的美元 指数则显著反弹，对大宗商品价格造成重大压制力。 而北美原油定价基准——西德克萨斯中质原油(即WTI原油)期货价格则接近65美元。美国总统特朗普的最新表态已从因德黑兰 对抗议者的致命镇压而计划军事惩罚伊朗，转向本周寻求达成一项新的核协议，然而双方谈妥的概率仍然非常低。 尽管市场仍然预期2026至2027年全球原油供应增加的同时需求可能将持续萎靡，将对不断国际油价形成下行压力，但是特朗普 政府对伊朗的持 ...

Group 1 - Gold, silver, and copper prices reached historical highs on January 29, with gold futures rising to $5626 per ounce, silver to $121 per ounce, and LME copper to $14527 per ton, driven by increased market concerns over potential military actions against Iran [1][3][4] - The price of silver increased by over $8 (7%), while LME copper futures saw a rise of more than $1400 (11%) compared to the previous day [3] - Despite the highs, there was a significant drop in prices on January 29, with gold falling over $200 from the previous day, attributed to profit-taking by investors and losses in U.S. tech stocks [6] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, are perceived as a "real risk," leading to increased investment in gold as a safe asset, with buying interest expanding to silver and copper [7] - The U.S. dollar index is at a four-year low, contributing to the rise in commodity prices, as most demand for these commodities is outside the U.S. [8] - Future price expectations for gold, silver, and copper remain optimistic, with short-term adjustments expected due to recent price surges, while supply shortages are anticipated to support copper prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Geopolitical situations are complex and volatile, affecting multiple commodity markets. For example, the tension between the US and Iran impacts oil, fuel oil, and related energy - related products. The situation in Ukraine also adds to the uncertainty in the market [1][2][21]. - Many commodity markets are influenced by a combination of supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For instance, in the metals market, prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity, and short - term speculative sentiment [3][4][7]. - Some markets are expected to be in a state of shock or have limited upward/downward space due to various factors such as policy, seasonality, and demand - supply imbalances [11][12][13]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Prices fluctuated sharply last night. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and the EU's sanctions on Iran have increased market concerns. The cease - fire in energy infrastructure may bring some stability, but the market remains volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by rising geopolitical risks, they followed crude oil to rise significantly. The high - sulfur fuel oil shows strong performance due to tight spot supply, while the low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by cost and component factors. The market is expected to follow crude oil and maintain a strong shock, with the differentiation between high - and low - sulfur fundamentals continuing [21]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Coal**: - **Coke**: The first round of price increase is expected to be implemented on Friday. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still have upward space in the short term [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price continued to rise. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1618 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the inventory increased. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still rise in the short term [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, they fluctuated violently, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 10%. Market focus is on geopolitical changes. Short - term market information is complex, and the risk of market fluctuations is high [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The price fluctuated violently on Thursday, with the maximum intraday increase of LME copper exceeding 10%. It is guided by funds and emotions. Pay attention to the domestic spot and discount range [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, non - ferrous metals followed precious metals to fall. The spot premium and discount in some regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The market is dominated by short - term sentiment, and the volatility is high [4]. - **Zinc**: After the sharp fall of gold and silver at night, the long positions in the non - ferrous sector took profits, and the price of SHFE zinc closed with a long upper shadow. The short - term has an adjustment demand, and there is an opportunity for short - allocation after the high - level adjustment is sufficient [7]. - **Lead**: It is in a weak adjustment under over - supply. Benefiting from the strong bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, it rebounds, but the actual demand is weak, and the rebound space is limited [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level. The spot price of stainless steel rose, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing, and the actual transaction was weak. The inventory of steel mills is still at a low level, and traders are willing to support the price [9]. - **Tin**: Compared with surrounding varieties, the price performance is restrained. Pay attention to the domestic spot quotation and track the social inventory. It is recommended to participate in the short - call option of the 2603 contract [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price rebounded. The spot price of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slowly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price rebounded. The power cost in some areas decreased, but the price of semi - coke increased slightly. The demand has some resilience, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [19]. - **Rare Earth Metals**: Not mentioned in the report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The rise in oil prices strengthens the cost support. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, but the downstream is more cautious. The supply and demand of polyethylene and polypropylene have different characteristics, and the new order follow - up is insufficient [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed a strong trend at night. The inventory in warehouses in East and South China increased, and the export signing slowed down. The cost support of calcium carbide became stronger. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine was strong. The industry is under high - pressure inventory, and the follow - up production reduction needs to be tracked [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Driven by the strong rise in oil prices, they rose again. In the first half of the year, PX can be over - allocated, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for long - position operations based on PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased, and the price encountered resistance at the 4000 mark. In the second quarter, there are expectations of centralized maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. - **Urea**: Before the Spring Festival, the industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and the large - scale spring ploughing fertilizer demand has not started. The supply pressure remains, and the market continues to oscillate strongly within the range [23]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical risks, it rose significantly at night. The overseas device operation rate is low, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Although there are some negative factors, the short - term market is expected to run strongly [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price followed the oil price and ran strongly. The inventory in Jiangsu ports increased slightly. The demand increased due to the improvement of downstream profits and the increase in device operation rates [25]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene support the cost. The domestic supply has declined, and the downstream demand has decreased steadily. There is short - term price pressure [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Driven by the drought in Argentina and the weakening of the US dollar, US soybeans continue to oscillate strongly at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, which may impact the domestic market [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Affected by the spread of re - inflation trading in commodities, they are boosted. The short - term price volatility risk should be noted. The supply - demand of palm oil has improved marginally, and the policies of Indonesia and the US are beneficial to the price [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The zero - pressing of rapeseed in domestic coastal oil mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. Although affected by geopolitics and policies, the import is expected to be looser after March, and the short - term upward space is limited [37]. - **Corn**: The spot price in Northeast China and North Ports is stable, and the price of some Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is weak, reflecting the expected weakening of the spot market. Although the inventory of laying hens will decline in the first half of 2026, the short - term price may fall after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the trading rhythm [41]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply and sales are booming, but the downstream order demand is average. Pay attention to the pressure around 15,000 yuan and the change in imports [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market focuses on the expected difference in production. Although the current production in Guangxi is slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 crushing season, and the short - term price faces pressure [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price oscillates. The Spring Festival stocking is at a peak, but the quality of apples is poor and the purchase price is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The market focuses on demand [44]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand has increased year - on - year, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has continued to accumulate [46]. Livestock - **Hogs**: The futures and spot prices are falling. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the price may hit a second bottom in the first half of next year [40]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The three major A - share indexes rose and fell differently yesterday. The futures indexes also showed different trends. The A - share market is expected to change from a unilateral rapid rise to an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to geopolitical situations and economic policies [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 29, 2026, treasury bond futures rose slightly. The market sentiment of going long continues, but the trading is divided. The short - term is expected to continue the box - type shock. Pay attention to the opportunities of steepening and flattening the yield curve [48].

消息面上，昨夜，美油主力合约收涨3.64%，报65.51美元/桶；布油主力合约涨3.43%，报69.68美元/桶。市场对美国可能对伊朗发起攻击的担忧加剧，地缘 政治风险升温推升原油供应中断预期，支撑布油价格上涨。 分析人士指出，地缘政治紧张与宏观情绪升温，正推动原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品走强，也意外点燃了国内相关主题LOF基金的交易热度。然而，火爆的 二级市场交易价格已大幅脱离基金净值，形成巨大溢价"泡沫"。不少石油类基金LOF今日停牌1小时，同时也开启了限购措施。 在此背景下，油气ETF汇添富（159309）或更具性价比，凭借ETF的交易优势，跟踪中证油气资源指数的油气ETF汇添富（159309）不仅聚焦国内油气产业 链优质企业，全面把握油气机遇，其溢价水平还相对较低，能更真实地反映价值，其次产品的流动性充沛，交易便捷！ 1月30日，A股市场震荡走弱，资源行业跌幅居前，油气ETF汇添富（159309）冲高后回落，开盘一度涨超2%，当前跌超2%，盘中振幅超4%！资金持续涌 入油气板块，油气ETF汇添富（159309）强势吸金超7800万元，加上今日已经连续14日强势吸金超4.7亿元！ 油气ETF汇添富（159 ...