Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend weakly with oscillations today due to factors such as concentrated new - capacity launches, although the base - difference is strong, the macro - policy promotes consumption, and the film season is ongoing [4]. - PP is expected to show an oscillating trend today, with factors like the recovery of downstream demand and potential supply increase [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, official PMI was 50.2% (up 1.1%), and Caixin PMI was 50.8% (up 0.7%), both in the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year - on - year. The US sanctions on Venezuela reduced crude oil supply and led to price rebounds. New capacity launches are concentrated, the industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and the film season is in progress. The current LLDPE delivery - product spot price is 7870 (unchanged), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Base - difference**: The LLDPE 2505 contract base - difference is 169, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.2%, indicating a bullish sign [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (down 3.7), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expected Trend**: The LLDPE main - contract market is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. This week, one unit of Yulong Petrochemical restarted, and one unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is planned for maintenance, with expected supply increase. The industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has recovered. The current PP delivery - product spot price is 7380 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [6]. - **Base - difference**: The PP 2505 contract base - difference is 41, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, indicating a bullish sign [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 64.2 tons (down 5.9), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Positions**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expected Trend**: The PP main - contract market is expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent recovery in U.S. business activity in March, while highlighting concerns over import tariffs and significant government spending cuts that may impact market sentiment and economic outlook for the remainder of the year [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global survey indicates that the new orders index rose from 51.9 in February to 53.3 in March, while the employment index increased slightly from 49.4 in January to 50.6 [3]. - The composite PMI output index for the U.S. rose from 51.6 in February to 53.5 in March, indicating expansion in the private sector [4]. - The annualized growth rate of the U.S. economy in March was reported at 1.9%, with a quarterly annualized growth rate of only 1.5%, suggesting a slowdown compared to the end of 2024 [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Pricing - The input prices index surged from 58.4 in February to 60.9 in March, marking the highest level since April 2023, driven by tariffs and rising labor costs [5]. - The prices charged index for goods and services increased from 52.3 to 53.6, indicating that manufacturers are passing higher costs onto consumers, although service sector firms face challenges in raising prices due to slowing demand [6]. - The core PCE inflation rate is projected to rise by 2.8% this year, up from a previous estimate of 2.5%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].

Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI increased by 10.6 points to 59.6, indicating a significant improvement in the economic climate, reaching the second-highest level for March since 2019, only behind March 2021 [1][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The production, order, and export indices rose by 21.6, 13.7, and 11.6 points respectively, reflecting a recovery in production as the operational season commenced [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio stands at 3.3, indicating a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance compared to the averages from 2021 to 2024 [2][10]. - Employment indicators improved by 5.8 points, marking the second consecutive month of positive change [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - All seven major emerging industries are in the expansion zone, with significant increases in the new generation information technology sector, which rose by 27.1 points to above 60 [4][14]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and new materials sectors saw increases of 16.4 and 9.0 points respectively, supported by government policies promoting emerging industries [4][14]. - The new energy vehicle sector increased by 8.1 points, reflecting the impact of policy incentives [4][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The EPMI's upward trend is crucial for assessing the manufacturing and economic climate, with expectations that the manufacturing PMI could return to around 51 in March [3][12]. - The upcoming months are critical for sustaining economic recovery, influenced by debt management policies and fiscal changes [5][15].

Economic Overview - In February, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, compared to an increase of 0.5% in the previous month[4] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% in February, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 151,000, below the market expectation[3] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 50.3, indicating slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 53.5, showing stronger growth[19] Policy and Economic Goals - The Chinese government aims for a GDP growth of around 8% for 2025, with a target urban unemployment rate of approximately 5.3% and a consumer price increase of about 2.8%[4] - The focus of the Chinese government during the Two Sessions is on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets[4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation data for January showed a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding expectations, while core CPI rose by 3.3%[5] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that there is no urgency to lower interest rates, citing stable labor market conditions[6] Financial Indicators - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.06 trillion yuan, which is 683 billion yuan more than the same period last year[5] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.28 in February, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved economic conditions[4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic PMI data, suggesting a favorable direction for asset allocation while monitoring variables related to US Treasury rates [5][6][9] - It emphasizes the seasonal recovery in February PMI, indicating a need to pay attention to the incremental policies from the upcoming Two Sessions [5][13] - The investment strategy for March includes a focus on key stocks, with a particular emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion and technological advancements [5][18] Group 1: Domestic PMI Data and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity [8][13] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.4, slightly above market expectations, reflecting a stable recovery in the service sector [8][13] - The report suggests that the recovery in PMI is influenced by the post-Spring Festival resumption of activities and government stimulus measures, with production and new orders showing growth [8][14] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The report notes a general decline in global equity markets during the last week of February, with A-shares experiencing adjustments while US and European markets showed mixed results [7][8] - It highlights a decrease in commodity prices, including oil and metals, alongside a rebound in the US dollar index [7][8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong downstream recovery and competitive cost structures, particularly in non-ferrous metals and petrochemical industries [8][9] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The report discusses the government's focus on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key tasks for the upcoming Two Sessions, with GDP growth targets expected around 5% [18][25] - It mentions the potential for increased fiscal deficits and the expansion of special bonds to support economic growth [18][25] - The report also addresses the impact of external uncertainties, particularly related to US trade policies and their potential effects on China's export outlook [18][19]

Macro Events - The National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on March 5, 2025, with key agendas including discussions on government work reports and political resolutions[1] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canada planning to retaliate with tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods[1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.3, slightly below expectations of 50.5, marking the highest level since June 2022[2] - The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for February is at 47.6, exceeding expectations of 47.3, while Germany's PMI reached 46.5, the highest since January 2023[2] Commodity Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $68.47, down 2.12% for the day and down 16.71% year-on-year[3] - COMEX gold closed at $2904.10, up 1.28% for the day and up 34.21% year-on-year[3] Stock Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43191.24, down 1.48% for the day and up 11.35% year-on-year[3] - The Nasdaq Composite closed at 18350.19, down 2.64% for the day and up 13.95% year-on-year[3] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.16%, down 0.08% for the day and down 0.18% year-on-year[3] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 3.96%, down 0.03% for the day and down 0.58% year-on-year[3]

中国宏观经济2025年3月报 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 经济修复步伐略有加快 宏观焦点转向政策 方正中期研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 F3050205(从业) Z0013871(投资咨询) 2025年2月28日 www.founderfu.com CONTENT 目录 第一部分 经济基本面与宏观供需 第二部分 价格水平变动情况 第三部分 货币与财政政策 第四部分 汇率与商品市场波动 2 基本面与宏观供需——主要观点 年初以来国内经济基本延续去年四季度的修复趋势，且春节假期后修复速度略有加快。其中消费增长略超预期，投资暂 时变动不大，出口则维持一定韧性。当前公布的1、2月经济数据不多，我们本期更多从高频数据角度观察经济。 产出方面，春节前后受到假期影响，主要工业品生产以及建筑业生产放缓，但服务业产出增长明显。对于制造业，发电 量、汽车轮胎开工等基本稳定。我们认为短期来看库存周期暂时处于加库存阶段，政策影响依然巨大，且外需带动也没 有减弱。但今年仍面临库存周期回落的潜在影响，这也将是经济持续面临的内生风险。 需求方面，外需有望维持任性，从高频和领先数据看，半导体等高端制造业出口仍存在继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the economy is maintained by the "export grabbing" strategy, with the sustainability of economic recovery dependent on future export conditions and policy responses [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.2, indicating a return above the growth line, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points, surpassing the average increase of 0.8 percentage points from 2015 to 2019 [1]. - The production index rose by 2.7 percentage points to 52.5%, while the new orders index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1% [1]. - The export new orders index in February increased by 2.2 percentage points to 48.6%, driven by the "export grabbing" trend [2]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - The "export grabbing" mode has been accelerated since Trump's election, with a 10.1% year-on-year increase in U.S. imports from China in December 2024 and a 15.6% increase in Chinese exports to the U.S. [2]. - In January 2025, U.S. container imports reached a record 2.487 million TEU, with a month-on-month increase of 10.6% from China [2]. - The manufacturing sector's performance is bolstered by the "export grabbing," with the equipment manufacturing production index remaining above 54% in February [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - In February, the main raw material purchase prices and factory gate prices indices increased by 1.3 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, providing positive guidance for the PPI data [3]. Group 4: Trade Tensions and Policy Outlook - The intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions since February raises concerns about the sustainability of the "export grabbing" window, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. [4]. - The manufacturing PMI's production and raw material inventory indices declined by 0.8 and 0.7 percentage points, indicating uncertainty in export performance [4]. - Current domestic policies are focused on stabilizing the economy, with monetary policy emphasizing coordination rather than aggressive measures, and fiscal policy prioritizing debt management [5][6].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for February 2025 is recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return above the growth threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for the first two months of 2025 is 49.7%, lower than the average of 50.2% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a weaker manufacturing sentiment compared to seasonal norms[1] - The production index and new orders index for February are 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, indicating that production is expanding faster than demand[2] Economic Trends and Risks - The new export orders index stands at 48.6%, reflecting a slight recovery but still indicating potential risks in external demand due to uncertainties in trade policies[2] - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among manufacturing enterprises, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises are at 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, highlighting a reliance on large firms for recovery[2] - The manufacturing price indices indicate a potential narrowing of PPI declines, with the output price index at 48.5% and the main raw material purchase price index at 50.8%[2] Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI average for the first two months of 2025 is 50.6%, down from 51.3% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a slower economic recovery trajectory[6] - The construction PMI for February is 52.7%, showing a strong recovery post-holiday, while the service sector PMI is at 50.0%, indicating a decline[5] - The overall economic sentiment remains cautious, with the need for further policy support for small and medium enterprises highlighted as crucial for sustained recovery[2]