Core Viewpoint - Despite recent volatility in financial markets, traders have not fully priced in recession risks, indicating a potential disconnect between market performance and economic realities [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 12.5% from its historical high on February 19, with a maximum drop of 18.9% since the announcement of tariffs [2] - Current market declines are not comparable to those seen during past recessions, where declines were at least 19.9% [2] - Credit spreads are not reflecting the market pressures typically associated with recessions, with current high-yield bond spreads at 397 basis points, significantly lower than levels seen during past recessions [2] Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have only decreased by 10% since the tariff announcement, which is much less than the two-thirds drop observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis [3] - The moderate decline in oil prices suggests that investors do not anticipate a significant slowdown in the global economy [3] Yield Curve - The yield curve, particularly the spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, is showing signs of steepening, which is often a precursor to recession [3] - The steepening of the yield curve has been influenced by rising long-term yields, indicating investor concerns about the safety of long-term government bonds [3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming hard data, such as non-farm payroll reports, will be crucial in assessing whether the economy is heading into a recession, as recent survey data has been less reliable [4]

关于近期股市下跌的原因，分析人士普遍认为与特朗普政府于4月初推出的大范围关税政策密切相关。关 税新政几乎覆盖了所有主要行业，还加剧了美国与中国、加拿大、墨西哥等主要贸易伙伴的摩擦，令投资 者对经济前景倍感忧虑。市场担忧关税会推高企业运营成本、扰乱全球供应链，加之消费者信心走弱，使 企业盈利预期被普遍下调。 与此同时，激进的贸易政策也加剧了美国经济衰退的风险。市场担心，若贸易冲突持续，将拖累经济增 长，压缩企业利润，并推高通胀水平，从而对股市估值构成不利影响。高盛、摩根大通等机构均发出预 警，称美国经济陷入衰退的可能性显著上升。据估算，关税对美国GDP的冲击可能高达3个百分点，政策 反复（例如暂缓征税后又迅速恢复）亦进一步加剧了市场的不确定性和波动性。 另外，过去支撑美股上涨的重要板块——科技股，在本轮下跌中也未能幸免。受中美科技摩擦影响，像英 伟达（Nvidia）等半导体公司面临出口限制，业绩预期承压，成为拖累市场的重要因素。 面对上述种种不利因素，华尔街大行纷纷下调对今年标普500指数的盈利预期。瑞银策略团队指出，美股 短期内可能继续承压，预计未来经济将显著放缓。不过，他们仍预计标普500指数在2025年底 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In April, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 50.7, above the expected 49 and previous 50.2; the Services PMI preliminary value is 51.4, below the expected 52.6 and previous 54.4; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 51.2, below the expected 52 and previous 53.5 [3] - The Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 48.7, above the expected 47.4 and previous 48.6; the Services PMI preliminary value is 49.7, below the expected 50.5 and previous 51; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 50.1, slightly above the neutral 50, below the expected 50.2 and previous 50.9 [4] - The data indicates that Manufacturing PMI values are performing better than Services PMI, suggesting that the impact of trade wars on manufacturing has not yet fully materialized, while the Services sector reflects economic sentiment more quickly [4] Company Analysis: Yiyuan Communication - Yiyuan Communication reported a 2024 revenue of 18.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.14%, with a gross margin of 17.61%, down 1.33 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 588 million yuan, up 548.5% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, with a net profit of 145 million yuan, up 265% [7] - The growth is driven by a recovery in the IoT industry, with shipments of LTE, automotive, and 5G modules increasing by over 60% [7] Company Analysis: Sanhuan Group - Sanhuan Group reported a 2024 revenue of 7.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, with a gross margin of 43%, up 3.15 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.19 billion yuan, up 38.6% [8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with a net profit of 587 million yuan, up 33.8% [8] - The strong performance is attributed to a recovery in demand for consumer electronics and optical communication, as well as increased sales of MLCC products [8] Company Analysis: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% [10] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, with a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 62.13% [10] - The overseas market remains the core source of revenue and profit, with a focus on OEM/ODM partnerships to enter international markets [10] Company Analysis: Wen's Food Group - Wen's Food Group reported a 2024 revenue of 104.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, with a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.5% [11] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 82.7% [11] - The company achieved profitability in its pig farming business, with a significant increase in pig sales volume and a rise in average selling price [12]

商界领袖劝阻，企业信心崩塌 据媒体周四援引知情人士消息，在与沃尔玛、家得宝和塔吉特高管会面后的第二天，特朗普放弃了强硬 的关税言论。这些高管表示，进口税可能会扰乱供应链，推高商品价格。其中一位知情人士表示，特朗 普似乎对几周内商店货架可能空空如也的警告产生了共鸣。 此外，当被问及总统在关税和贸易政策方面咨询谁时，贝森特表示，特朗普"不断征求商界领袖的意 见"，并提到了主要零售商的来访，并透露"德国三大汽车公司周五也来访了"。 隔夜美国"股债汇"全面反弹，风险情绪明显回暖。三大美股指收涨超1%，美元指数升近100，十年期美 债收益率盘中下滑。 在这场突如其来的市场狂欢背后，过去几周市场两大担忧点迎来转机，特朗普对关税政策立场软化，并 对鲍威尔的评论发生转变。 据央视新闻周三报道，特朗普当地时间22号表示，将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税。根据《卫报》的 报道，特朗普的言论是对美国财长贝森特22号早些时候言论的回应。贝森特表示，高关税是不可持续 的。 而在周二，特朗普也"改口"，称没打算解雇鲍威尔，现在是降息的绝佳时机。 而特朗普"认怂"的背后，面临金融市场动荡、商界领袖劝阻、经济数据警示信号频发等多重压力。 受 ...

经济衰退担忧持续影响美股 美国关税政策的僵局正在对其经济造成损害并打击投资者的信心。多项经济指标表明，关税政策有可能将美国乃 至全球多地推向经济衰退的边缘。而反复无常的关税政策，不仅没有实现特朗普政府缩减贸易逆差和促使制造业 回流的目标，反而使美国承受通胀攀升和经济下行的压力。 在美国经济增长动能放缓以及政策不确定性增加等因素的拖累下，美股于2月中旬开始见顶回落，直至3月中下旬 才出现一波反弹。到了4月，特朗普政府对非美国家宣布加征关税，给金融市场带来新一轮的冲击，阻断了美股的 反弹之路，使得避险情绪大增，美国金融市场出现历史上较为少见的"股债汇三杀"风险。 近期，不走寻常路的特朗普对美联储的货币政策表示了不满，使得美联储的独立性遭受考验，这意味着政策的不 确定性与经济下行形成了共振，美股短期或出现超跌反弹的情况。但从中期来看，美股跌势可能尚未结束，需要 等到美联储重新启动降息以及关税谈判取得进展才能有所改变。 | 0.30 0.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

德国央行行长：德国面临衰退危机 金十数据4月23日讯，德国央行行长内格尔表示，由于美国关税的影响，德国今年面临经济衰退的危 险。内格尔周三表示，"欧洲正处于停滞状态。对我的国家，对德国来说，也许会出现衰退。"内格尔和 他在欧洲央行的同事们正在降低利率，以帮助应对唐纳德-特朗普总统的贸易政策对欧元区经济的拖 累。周三早些时候公布的商业调查显示，由于信心下滑，本月欧元区的私营部门活动几乎停滞。在德 国，经济活动意外萎缩。 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures rose significantly before the market opened, with Dow futures up 1.69%, S&P 500 futures up 2.20%, and Nasdaq futures up 2.61% [1] - European indices also showed positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 2.34%, UK's FTSE 100 up 2.01%, France's CAC40 up 1.09%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.36% [2] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 0.25% to $63.83 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.22% to $67.59 per barrel [3] Corporate News - Boeing (BA.US) reported better-than-expected Q1 results, with free cash flow of $2.3 billion and an adjusted loss per share of $0.49, which was better than market expectations. The company plans to increase the production of the 737 MAX to 38 aircraft per month and aims for 42 by year-end [8] - Philip Morris (PM.US) exceeded Q1 earnings expectations, with net revenue up 15% year-over-year and a significant contribution from its smoke-free products, leading to a stock price surge of over 4% [9] - AT&T (T.US) attracted more wireless users than expected in Q1, adding 324,000 mobile users, surpassing analyst forecasts [10] - New Oriental (EDU.US) reported a slight increase in net profit for Q3, with a 2% decline in total revenue but a 21.2% increase in revenue excluding certain segments [11] - Tesla (TSLA.US) experienced a 40% drop in Q1 profits, with revenue of $19.335 billion, which was below analyst expectations [12] - Volvo (VLVLY.US) reported a 7% decline in Q1 revenue, attributing the drop to a weakened North American truck market [13] - SAP (SAP.US) demonstrated resilience with Q1 profits exceeding expectations, reporting total revenue of €9.013 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase [14] Economic Indicators - The US economy is facing a potential recession risk of nearly 50%, according to Pimco, due to supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts [7] - Concerns over US Treasury bonds have increased, with a significant rise in put option premiums indicating heightened fear in the market [6]

机构：美联储降息的市场定价似乎是合理的 金十数据4月23日讯，Allspring Global Investments的高级投资组合经理诺亚•怀斯表示，市场对美联储 2025年将降息三到四次、到2026年7月将降息五到六次的预期是合理的。"不是因为这是我们的预期，而 是它在两种截然不同但又非常可能的情景之间取得了微妙的平衡。"在第一种情况下，通货膨胀率居高 不下，而经济避免陷入衰退，这意味着美联储将以比市场目前预期更缓慢的速度降息。另一种情况是， 经济下滑，通胀下降，到2025年底可能会有五到六次降息，到2026年7月可能会有八次或更多降息，具 体取决于经济衰退的严重程度。 ...

智通财经4月23日电，欧洲央行管委内格尔表示，不排除德国在2025年经济衰退的可能性。 ...

一份调查显示，76%的美国人担心发生经济衰退。 ...