Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unexpected growth in UK retail sales for September, which has led to a mixed market reaction regarding the British pound and expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Group 1: UK Retail Sales - UK retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in September, with the previous value revised from 0.5% to 0.6%, while the market had anticipated a decline of 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year retail sales grew by 1.5%, significantly surpassing the expected 0.6% [1] - Core retail sales year-on-year rose by 2.3%, against a forecast of 0.7% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Despite the positive retail data, expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have increased, putting pressure on the British pound [1] - The GfK consumer confidence index for October in the UK rose to -17, marking a three-month high, better than the expected -20 [1] Group 3: Eurozone Consumer Confidence - Eurozone consumer confidence improved, attributed to lower borrowing costs from the European Central Bank and recent easing of inflation [1] - The preliminary consumer confidence index for October in the Eurozone increased to -14.2, reaching an eight-month high, outperforming the expected -15 [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system to support high-quality economic development, with a focus on precise timing and effectiveness of policy measures [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank will adopt a supportive stance in monetary policy, balancing short-term and long-term goals while ensuring the health of the financial sector [2] - The monetary policy will continue to be "self-centered," addressing both internal and external economic conditions [2] - Experts predict that the central bank will flexibly use tools such as interest rates and reserve requirements to stabilize market expectations [2] Group 2: Liquidity Management - The central bank is expected to enhance liquidity management through various tools, including reverse repos and MLF operations, to support key sectors and strategic areas [3] - There is a suggestion to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, potentially releasing about 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The focus will also be on reducing financing costs for enterprises and households to stimulate internal financing demand [3] Group 3: Structural Focus - The next five years will prioritize the development of financial technology, encouraging banks to increase loans for technology and innovation [4] - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to direct more funds towards technological innovation and industrial transformation [4] Group 4: Policy Transmission - The central bank aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, with recent data showing a decrease in loan interest rates [5] - Improved communication with the market is crucial for stabilizing expectations and enhancing policy transmission efficiency [6] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to strengthen, supporting both economic growth and structural optimization [6]

Financial Sector Overview - The report indicates that financial institutions' operational and regulatory indicators remain within a reasonable range, with total assets of financial institutions exceeding 520 trillion yuan as of September 2025 [2] - The capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks stands at 15.36%, and the non-performing loan ratio is 1.52%, both significantly above regulatory standards [2] - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans is 3.14% as of September [2] Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy since 2025 has been highlighted, with measures including further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] - As of September, the social financing scale and broad money supply increased by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Loans to technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital economy sectors have seen significant year-on-year growth rates of 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9%, respectively [2] Risk Management and Financial Stability - The report emphasizes the establishment of a comprehensive financial support framework to mitigate risks, with the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debt decreasing by 71% and 62% respectively since March 2023 [3] - Policies to lower down payment ratios and mortgage rates in the real estate sector have been implemented to enhance financial stability [3] State-Owned Assets Management - As of the end of 2024, the total equity of state-owned enterprises (excluding financial enterprises) is reported at 109.4 trillion yuan, with total assets of state-owned enterprises reaching 401.7 trillion yuan [4][7] - The average annual growth rates for total assets, liabilities, and state-owned capital equity over the past five years are 11.4%, 11.7%, and 11.0%, respectively [7] - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the management and supervision of state-owned assets to ensure their value preservation and appreciation [8] Future Directions - The report outlines plans to further deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, enhance core functions, and improve competitiveness, with a focus on developing world-class enterprises [8][9] - There is a commitment to advancing the internationalization of the renminbi and promoting the construction of international financial centers in Shanghai and Hong Kong [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system to support high-quality economic development, focusing on the balance of short-term and long-term goals, the health of the financial sector, and internal and external relationships [1][2]. Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank will adopt a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools such as reverse repos and MLF operations to optimize liquidity and support key sectors [2][3]. - There is an expectation for a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, with potential further reductions in the following year [2]. Interest Rate and Financing Costs - The monetary policy will focus on price-type regulation of policy interest rates to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, which is crucial for stimulating consumption and investment [3]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating improved transmission of monetary policy [3]. Communication and Coordination - Enhanced communication with the market is vital for stabilizing expectations and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, with more frequent updates and guidance from the central bank [4]. - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to strengthen, with a focus on supporting major projects through combined efforts of fiscal capital and monetary financing tools [4][5].

本报记者 刘琪 日前，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）党委召开会议，传达学习党的二十届四中全会精神，研究部署贯彻落实举措。会 议提到，央行将加快完善中央银行制度，扎实推动重点工作落实落地。 央行明确了五大重点工作：一是坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导，纵深推进全面从严治党；二是构建科学稳健的货 币政策体系；三是健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险防范处置机制；四是持续深化金融供给侧结构性改革； 五是稳步推进金融高水平开放，坚决维护国家金融安全。 在健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险防范处置机制方面，央行强调"维护股市、债市、汇市等金融市场 平稳运行"。 近年来，我国金融市场整体稳健运行。外汇市场方面，央行坚持市场在汇率形成之中的决定性作用，面对多变的外部环 境，保持了人民币汇率的基本稳定。经过多年发展，中国外汇市场参与主体更加成熟，汇率避险工具使用更加广泛，市场更具 韧性。债券市场方面，央行从宏观审慎角度观察、评估债市运行情况，强化监管协同，及时向市场参与机构提示风险，有效弱 化和阻断风险累积。债券违约率保持低位，市场运行总体平稳。资本市场方面，探索维护资本市场稳定的货币政策工具，会同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan in October, aligning with market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity Management - The PBOC's MLF operation reflects a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support government bond issuance and meet credit demand from enterprises and households [4][5]. - The central bank's continued injection of medium-term liquidity is a response to rising market interest rates and tightening liquidity in the banking system, aiming to stabilize market expectations [4][5]. - The total amount of long-term liquidity remains unchanged despite a slight decrease in the net MLF injection to 200 billion yuan, marking the eighth net injection this year [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Future Expectations - Analysts expect the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter to further support economic growth and stabilize employment [7][8]. - The necessity for increased monetary policy support is rising due to external uncertainties and the high base effect from last year's policies [7][8]. - The overall liquidity in the market is expected to remain stable and ample, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates towards the end of the year [7][8]. Group 3: Loan Growth and Sector Support - In the third quarter of 2025, fixed asset loans increased by 5.06 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 77.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [9][10]. - The balance of loans to small and micro enterprises reached 36.09 trillion yuan, growing by 12.2% year-on-year, indicating strong support for this sector [10]. - The PBOC's focus on supporting technology-oriented small and medium enterprises is evident, with a loan balance of 3.56 trillion yuan, growing by 22.3% year-on-year [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that US inflation may have reached a temporary peak, with expectations of a decline in the coming months due to manageable tariff impacts and a stabilizing job market [1][3][13]. Inflation Trends - Over the past six months, US inflation has experienced a slight recovery, with the CPI rising from 3% in January to 3% in September, after a low of 2.3% in April [1][5]. - Core CPI also showed a similar trend, increasing from 2.8% in May to 3% in September [1][5]. Tariff Impact - The price impact of tariffs is relatively controllable, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.3% to 9.5% between February and July, which is lower than initial market expectations [1][6]. - As of September, the tariff price effect on core goods prices is estimated to be close to 90%, with a potential remaining impact of about 0.5 percentage points on core goods and 0.1 percentage points on overall CPI if tariffs rise to 17% [2][7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The marginal weakening of the job market has prevented a wage-price spiral, with wage growth slowing and rental prices stabilizing around 0.2-0.3% [2][6]. - The rental growth rate has decreased, with primary residence rent rising only 0.2%, the smallest monthly increase since January 2021 [19][22]. Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations remain high in the short and medium term but have decreased compared to earlier in the year, with market pricing for long-term inflation expectations remaining stable or even declining [11][13]. Future Inflation Projections - If US tariff policies do not experience significant fluctuations, inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in Q4 of this year and decline to approximately 2.5% and 2.8% for CPI and core CPI, respectively, in Q2 of next year [3][13]. Monetary Policy Implications - The controllable impact of tariffs and the peak in inflation may support the Federal Reserve's decision to continue "preemptive" rate cuts, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in October and December [15][25]. - Future rate cuts may slow down if inflation declines at a moderate pace and employment stabilizes [15][25].

Inflation Data Overview - In September, the U.S. CPI increased year-on-year from 2.9% to 3%, below the expected 3.1%[1] - Core CPI decreased year-on-year from 3.1% to 3%, matching the forecast[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, below the expected 0.4%[1] Price Trends - Core goods prices rose by 0.2%, down from 0.3%, with used car prices falling by 0.4%[2] - Rent growth slowed, with primary residence rent increasing by 0.2%, the smallest increase since January 2021[2] - Super core services prices remained stable at 0.3%, with notable price increases in medical services (0.3%) and entertainment services (0.4%)[2] Inflation Peak Insights - Inflation has likely peaked temporarily, with CPI rising from 2.3% in April to 3% in September, a total increase of 0.7 percentage points[3] - The effective tariff rate has increased from 2.3% to 9.5% from February to July, indicating manageable tariff impacts on inflation[3] - The remaining tariff effects on core goods prices are estimated to be around 0.5 percentage points, contributing only about 0.1 percentage points to overall CPI[4] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in Q4 2023, with a projected decline to approximately 2.5% for CPI and 2.8% for core CPI by Q2 2024[5] - The Federal Reserve may continue to implement preventive rate cuts, with potential reductions of 25 basis points in October and December[5] Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, market expectations for rate cuts have slightly increased, with the number of anticipated cuts rising from 1.92 to 2.0 for the year[34] - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 1.15% and the S&P 500 up 0.79%[34]

Supply and Demand Analysis - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.02%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - For October, the supply index is at 50.00%, down 0.03 percentage points from September, indicating a stronger supply side compared to demand[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Economic Indicators - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased by 27.1% year-on-year as of October 24, maintaining a similar decline as in September[7] - The export index for October shows a slight decline but remains resilient, with the cumulative cargo throughput at ports showing a slowdown compared to September[7] - The ELI index is at -0.66%, down 0.06 percentage points from last week, indicating liquidity pressure as the month-end tax period approaches[11] Consumer and Investment Trends - New energy vehicle retail sales are showing marginal recovery, driven by tax incentives set to reduce in 2026[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars recorded 63,163 units in the week ending October 19, a slight increase from the previous year[23] - Infrastructure investment shows stability, with the asphalt plant operating rate at 35.80%, up 1.30 percentage points from the previous week[29] Price and Inflation Outlook - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $63.37 per barrel, up $1.38 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures are at $4,163.46 per ounce, down $39.72[41] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.22 yuan per kilogram, up 0.21 yuan from the previous week[41]