Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for Japan's 30-year government bonds in the recent auction alleviated short-term concerns about long-term debt, leading to a decline in yields ahead of the upcoming elections [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Results - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 30-year bonds reached 3.64, significantly higher than the previous auction's 3.14 and above the 12-month average of 3.35, indicating increased investor interest [4]. - The yield on the 30-year bonds fell by 5 basis points to 3.585%, while the 10-year bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.23%, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1][4]. - Over 23% of the bonds were purchased by two large domestic companies, which is expected to support stable trading in the secondary market [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Context - Despite concerns over rising fiscal spending, the auction results suggest that higher yield levels are attracting buyers, indicating a potential increase in demand as political uncertainties diminish [3][4]. - The upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 will determine future fiscal spending, adding complexity to the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Currency and Monetary Policy Considerations - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point, with hedge funds resuming short positions ahead of the elections, indicating concerns over currency volatility [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring how the election results may influence the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, as Prime Minister Kishi Sanae is known for advocating monetary easing [7].

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has been on an upward trend, trading around 1.3680 during the Asian session, driven by a stronger USD and a weaker CAD [2] - The relative strength of the USD is primarily supported by market adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the Fed having paused rate cuts in January, indicating a cautious policy stance [2] - The Fed's focus on the sustainability of inflation control, along with the nomination of a new Fed chair who favors a moderate approach to rate cuts, has further solidified support for the USD [2] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices have significantly impacted the CAD, with a decline in oil prices leading to a weaker CAD performance [3] - The recent rise in the USD/CAD exchange rate is a result of both policy expectations and commodity price movements [3] - Key variables influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate include Fed policy direction, inflation data, and geopolitical developments affecting oil prices, with potential for continued upward movement if the Fed maintains a tight stance and oil prices remain under pressure [3]

在政治压力持续升温的背景下，美联储内部对通胀问题的表态依旧保持谨慎。理事丽莎·库克指出，在 缺乏更有力证据证明通胀能够持续回落至目标水平之前，维护央行通胀信誉仍是政策制定的核心考量。 她表示，当前风险仍偏向通胀上行，并支持维持利率不变的决定。相关言论发布于美联储将基准利率维 持在3.5%至3.75%区间之后。此前，央行已在2025年底连续三次下调利率。市场认为，库克的表态 对"快速宽松"预期形成了技术性约束，也进一步凸显出决策层在政策节奏与风险评估方面的分歧。 UNforex 2月5日讯 本周以来，美联储货币政策取向与高层人事安排相关的政治张力明显上升。美国总 统特朗普的最新公开表态，为下一任美联储主席的遴选设定了更为明确的政策边界，也使央行独立性问 题再次成为市场与国会讨论的焦点。在货币政策立场承受外部压力的同时，美国劳动力市场降温迹象持 续显现，而中东局势反复波动亦不断干扰风险资产定价，宏观层面的不确定性呈现出多重因素叠加的共 振状态。 特朗普在近期采访中直言，如果潜在主席人选凯文·沃什支持加息，其提名将不具备现实可能性。他强 调当前利率水平处于偏高区间，并认为美联储转向降息已不再存在实质性争议。相关表态 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管人们对英国劳动力市场的担忧日益加剧，但英国央行几乎肯定会在周四维持利 率不变，并等待更多证据表明通胀已得到控制。市场认为周四降息25个基点的可能性不到1%，在接受 调查的32位经济学家中，只有一位预计会降息。其余经济学家认为利率将维持在3.75%不变，这是三年 来的最低水平。大多数人预计投票结果将为7比2，货币政策委员会的外部成员艾伦·泰勒和斯瓦蒂·丁格 拉预计将支持再次降息25个基点。 在去年12月的上次会议上，英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利的支持让投票结果以5比4通过了降息25个基点的 决议。但货币政策委员会在更新的指导意见中表示，今后的降息幅度将"更加难以预测"。多位英国经济 学家预计下一次降息将在4月进行。市场普遍认为4月降息的可能性为70%，并且之后政策将维持不变。 货币政策委员会九名成员一致认为，货币政策应保持紧缩态势，并抑制通胀，但抑制程度有所不同。目 前通胀率仍高达3.4%，令鹰派人士担忧，但预计通胀率将在今年第二季度降至2%的目标水平。其他成 员则更关注劳动力市场。失业率已升至5.1%，高于英国央行11月份预测的2025年第四季度5%的失业 率。 预计投票分裂 去年12月， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of silver prices and comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and accountability amid rising inflation [1]. Silver Market Analysis - As of February 5, paper silver is trading below 18.923, opening at 19.378 CNY per gram, and currently reported at 18.672 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 4.01% [1]. - The highest price reached today was 20.169 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 18.672 CNY per gram, indicating a bearish short-term trend for paper silver [1]. - Technical indicators show that paper silver prices are experiencing a significant drop, with a decline exceeding 5%, and the Bollinger Bands indicating further downward potential [1]. - Support levels for paper silver are noted at 17.50-18.40, while resistance levels are identified at 20.50-21.50 [1]. Comments on Federal Reserve - Treasury Secretary Basset expressed confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence but emphasized that the Fed must be held accountable for its actions, particularly in light of the highest inflation in 49 years affecting American workers [1]. - He stated that the Fed's independence relies on public trust, which has been compromised due to its handling of inflation [1]. - Basset acknowledged that while the Fed should maintain independence in monetary policy, its other activities could impact this independence [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment ratings: Aluminum - Neutral, Alumina - Neutral, Aluminum alloy - Neutral; Arbitrage strategy: Long electrolytic aluminum and short aluminum alloy [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices have entered a wide - range oscillation period. The increase in absolute prices has suppressed the restocking demand of downstream enterprises and traders. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the spot market trading is quiet. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum will continue to accumulate rapidly, and the peak of inventory accumulation is expected to reach 1.5 million tons. In the long - term, macro factors are the main logic for the long - term price increase. [6] - The Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed anti - involution measures for alumina, but the implementation of the policy is unclear. The supply pressure of alumina remains high, the surplus pattern continues, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support is weak, and large - scale active production cuts by alumina plants have not occurred. [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On February 4, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 470 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was - 210 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,640 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 330 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,770 yuan/ton, with a change of 460 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,810 yuan/ton on February 4, 2026, closed at 23,955 yuan/ton, with a change of 435 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 451,208 lots, and the position held was 224,756 lots. [2] Inventory - As of February 4, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 817,000 tons, with a change of 35,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 150,289 tons, with a change of - 423 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 495,175 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons. [2][4] Alumina Spot Price - On February 4, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,735 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 310 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - The main contract of alumina opened at 2,820 yuan/ton on February 4, 2026, closed at 2,824 yuan/ton, with a change of 14 yuan/ton (0.50%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,835 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,793 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 420,118 lots, and the position held was 375,698 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 4, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 22,678 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 522 yuan/ton. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading day, with the T2603 contract down 0.02% and the open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields at home and abroad also fluctuated differently. Amid various macro - news and market conditions, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous trading day saw a general decline in Treasury bond futures prices, such as the T2603 contract down 0.02%. The open interest of some contracts decreased, like T2603 with a reduction of 8950, while others increased, like TS2606 with an increase of 959. Trading volumes varied across contracts [2] - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, with SHIBOR7 - day rate down 1.5bp, DR007 rate up 0.43bp, and GC007 rate down 2bp [2] - **Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields at home showed mixed changes. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield rose 0.24bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 38.41bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.9bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On February 4, the central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method, and 3775 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan [3] - **International Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue. He also had a video meeting with Russian President Putin, stating that China and Russia should promote fairness and justice in the international community [3] - **Financial Policy Meetings**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 credit market work conference, requiring enhanced financial services for key areas. The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank held a financial situation analysis meeting, putting forward requirements for credit growth, policy implementation, etc [3] - **US Financial News**: US President Trump said that a rate cut was almost certain. The US Treasury announced its quarterly refinancing plan, maintaining the issuance scale of medium - and long - term bonds, with a total of 125 billion US dollars of bonds to be issued this quarter [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: Most money - market interest rates in China rose, and US Treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield in China rose to 1.808%, and the central bank's net withdrawal in the open - market reverse repurchase was 3025 billion yuan [3] Comments and Strategies - **Market Analysis**: The central bank's net withdrawal of funds, Shibor short - term varieties mostly rising, and the relatively stable pre - Spring Festival capital situation. The Fed's pause in rate cuts, the market's expectation of a "rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction parallel" policy in the US, and the rise of the US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index. In China, the three major manufacturing PMIs showed a seasonal decline in January, and industrial enterprise profits and fixed - asset investment had different performance. The government's fiscal and monetary policies contributed to the stabilization of Treasury bond futures prices [3]

【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据美国全国广播公司（NBC）报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间4日接受该 媒体独家专访时表示，若候任美联储主席凯文·沃什不支持降息，就不会得到这份工作。 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事沃什出任下一任美联储主席。据英国《金融时报》报道，沃什的提名 将先由参议院银行委员会审议，之后诉诸参议院全院表决。2月3日，美国国会参议院银行委员会的全体 11名民主党人致信该委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求推迟沃什的全部提名程序，直至针对现任主席鲍威 尔等美联储理事的刑事调查终止。多家媒体称，特朗普政府调查鲍威尔等人恐适得其反。《金融时报》 称，沃什本人属"主流"美联储主席候选人，与国会和华尔街均关系良好，这样的人选提名在参议院过关 受阻"凸显白宫对美联储和鲍威尔的攻击恐遭反噬"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但其美联储理事职位任期将持续至2028年1月底。特 朗普在其首个总统任期里就曾多次批评鲍威尔的货币政策。2025年1月再次出任美国总统后，特朗普频 繁批评鲍威尔在降息方面行动迟缓，加剧了联邦政府债务负担，并多次威胁解除其美联储主席职务。 报道称，特朗普在采访中表示，他对很快就能降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Philippines accelerated for the second consecutive month in January, remaining within the central bank's target range, which allows for potential monetary policy easing [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January increased by 2% year-on-year, surpassing the median forecast of 1.8% and the previous month's level [1] - Despite the increase, the inflation rate is still at the lower end of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target range of 2% to 4% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - BSP Governor Eli Remolona indicated readiness to adjust policy rates to stimulate demand following weaker-than-expected economic data in the fourth quarter [1] - The fourth quarter GDP growth rate slowed to 3%, marking the lowest growth rate in 14 years, excluding the pandemic period, due to weakened investment and spending [1]

美国总统特朗普公开表示，如果其美联储主席提名人选沃什表达加息意愿，他根本不会获得提名。这一 表态再次引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，并可能成为沃什参议院确认听证会上的焦点议题。 沃什的提名确认过程预计将面临严格审查，美联储独立性料将成为核心议题。 共和党参议员Thom Tillis是参议院银行委员会成员，他已承诺将阻止特朗普对美联储的所有提名人选， 直到司法部结束对美联储装修项目的调查。 即将离任的美联储主席鲍威尔此前称这项调查是对美联储独立决定货币政策能力的变相攻击。特朗普政 府官员否认这一意图，但总统本人已对鲍威尔发起长达数月的降息施压行动。 沃什的立场转变 特朗普周三在接受NBC新闻采访时明确指出，"如果他进来说'我想加息'，他就不会得到这份工作，不 会。"特朗普强调，美联储降息"毫无疑问"，因为"我们的利率太高了"，而现在"我们又是一个富裕的 国家了"。 当被问及沃什是否理解特朗普希望他降低基准利率时，特朗普回应称："我认为他理解，但我认为他本 来也想这么做。"这番言论直接揭示了白宫对货币政策走向的明确预期。 特朗普的公开施压可能加剧市场对美联储政策独立性的质疑，并为即将到来的人事确认程序增添变数。 确 ...