流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 2026 年 01 月 28 日 资金波澜再起 glmszqdatemark [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 徐亮 | 执业证书： S0590525110037 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | xliang@glms.com.cn | 研究助理 | 黄紫仪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110076 | 邮箱： | huangziyi@glms.com.cn | | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 货币政策与流动性观点：税期过后即将迎来跨月，1 月最后一周政府债缴款规模 大幅上升至 5150 亿元左右，可能对资金面造成扰动，但需要注意的是 1 月央行 通过买断式和 MLF 净投放中长期资金 1 万亿元，可以看出对资金面的呵护，因此 跨月或也无需过于担忧。较为特别的是，上周隔夜资金出现上行的情况下存单利 率低位下行，一方面说明银行中长期负债可能较为充足，同业存单从 2025 年 11 月中旬开始除了 12 月第一周少量净融资不到 500 亿元外持续净偿还，截至上周 ...

市场分析师Ghiles Guezout表示，这一宣布可能最早就在今天。财经网站Investinglive分析师Eamonn Sheridan也表示，特朗普官宣时机有可能特意安排在美联储1月政策会议期间。据分析，此举具有战略 意图，若美联储此次未降息，那么在会议期间宣布美联储主席人选将使白宫能够左右政策叙事。 特朗普可能提前公布下任美联储主席提名，甚至将官宣时间与本周美联储的利率决议同步。美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨03:00公布利率决议。 周二在爱荷华州的演讲中，特朗普表示："我很快就会宣布美联储主席人选。"至于很快是"多快"，市场 对此的猜测正在加剧。 当前市场押注的热门人选为贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德尔（Rick Rieder），投资者认 为他支持降息，且不会对美联储的独立性构成直接威胁。 截至发稿，预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，里德尔的当选概率以46.1%位居首位，远超前美联储理事 凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）的29%；现任美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）的概率为 7.5%，国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特（Ke ...

决议的三大看点 由于许多美联储决策者认为央行目前处于或接近中性政策状态，因此，现在开始刺激经济的理由并不充 分——尤其是在今年财政政策即将启动以及关税上调对价格的影响仍存在不确定性的情况下。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月28日，美联储在北京时间周四凌晨即将迎来开年的第一场利率决议，当前，经济增长具备韧性、股 市接近历史高位且通胀高于目标水平，这些因素都表明美联储本次会暂停降息。但虽然预期维持利率不 变，但是这次决议在地缘政治、贸易不确定性、金银双高背景下的一次关键会议，所以对市场的指引可 能也更加复杂，重点关注主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会的措辞。 政策立场：对通胀和经济的评估，看美联储是否会调整对通胀"顽固"和经济"韧性"的描述？ 降息路径：对于下一次降息的暗示，面对最新的地缘政治局势，鲍威尔若释放更耐心信号，可能意味着 降息会被推迟到下半年晚些时候。 政治压力：美联储独立性的表态，特朗普正物色新美联储主席，任何关于政治压力影响决策的讨论都会 引发市场担忧。此前特朗普试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，并对主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，以期影响 央行的决策。 特朗普近期对加拿大、欧洲的关税威胁频发，导致市场集体震 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月28日电（葛佳明） 作为备受市场关注的事件，美联储将在北京时间1月29日（周四） 凌晨公布1月议息会议决定。目前市场普遍预期，美联储1月料"按兵不动"，将基准利率维持在 3.50%-3.75%的区间水平，此次会议不会发布新的经济和政策预期，市场将重点关注美联储主席鲍威尔 对后续利率路径的表述，在美联储深陷政治漩涡之际，美联储独立性、新主席人选以及鲍威尔去留或成 为市场真正的焦点。 降息料按下暂停键 在进入美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议静默期前，多数美联储官员表示，当前的政策立场"处 于良好位置""既不急于进一步宽松，也不需要立即转向"，释放观望信号。 12月议息会议以来的经济数据显示，美国劳动力市场和通胀趋势无明显变化，两者均趋于稳定，就业增 长表现疲软，但在经济增长和消费支出向好的背景下，12月失业率回落至4.4%。美联储锚定2%通胀目 标所参考的个人消费支出价格指数PCE去年11月录得 2.8%，略高于市场预期。 华泰证券表示，近期数据显示经济增长韧性较强，美国就业市场下行风险可控，2025年12月以来首次申 请失业金人数大多好于预期，2025年三季度GDP等数据明 ...

Allspring全球投资公司高级投资组合经理Lauren van Biljon指出，日本即将举行的大选、持续过度宽松 的货币政策以及市场技术面因素正相互交织，共同推升日本国债与日元的波动性。 她表示，这一复杂背景在债券市场上体现为收益率曲线明显陡峭化，而在外汇市场则表现为日元整体走 弱——尽管近期因市场对日本当局可能干预汇市的预期升温，日元出现短暂反弹。 Lauren van Biljon特别强调："1月份日本国债市场的调整速度令人震惊。"她解释称，过去几周长端利率 的剧烈错位最初源于市场对日本财政可持续性的担忧，并因市场流动性薄弱而进一步放大。此外，日本 央行当前的政策立场被其视为"悬而未决的风险"。（新华财经） ...

Core Transmission Mechanism - Capital flow: Interest rate cuts may drive international capital towards A-shares due to the increased attractiveness of RMB assets, but caution is needed regarding exchange rate volatility [1] - Exchange rate and trade: The depreciation of the USD and appreciation of the RMB may weaken the competitiveness of Chinese export companies, impacting the stock prices of related sectors [1] - Policy space: Interest rate cuts provide greater operational space for China's monetary policy, potentially releasing liquidity through tools like rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which would benefit the stock market [1] - Market sentiment: Interest rate cuts typically boost global risk appetite, potentially increasing foreign capital inflow into A-shares, but external uncertainties such as the risk of a U.S. economic recession must be monitored [1] Specific Impact on A-shares - Real estate sector: U.S. interest rate cuts may lead to capital seeking returns, with some potentially flowing into the Chinese real estate market, stimulating a reduction in financing costs for real estate companies, which is a positive for the sector [2] - Non-ferrous metals sector: Interest rate cuts often lead to USD depreciation, which may increase the prices of non-ferrous metals and other commodities priced in USD, potentially enhancing the profitability of related companies [2] - Aviation sector: Airlines have significant USD-denominated debt, and U.S. interest rate cuts could lower their debt costs, alleviating financial burdens [2] Current Market Background - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may reflect concerns about economic slowdown; if the cuts are preventive, A-shares may benefit from an increase in risk appetite; however, if the U.S. economy is already in recession, A-shares may be dragged down by weak global demand [3] - Overall, the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on A-shares is multifaceted, requiring a comprehensive analysis of factors such as capital, exchange rates, policy, and sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, emphasizing the need to "build a strong domestic market" for 2026 [2] Group 1: Characteristics of the New Domestic Demand Strategy - The national emphasis on expanding domestic demand has significantly increased, with counter-cyclical policies placing greater focus on this area [2] - Policy responses to economic data have become more sensitive, as seen in the dynamic adjustments throughout 2025, where proactive fiscal policies were implemented in response to economic pressures [2] - Fiscal policy operations have become more refined, with specific measures like including elevator upgrades in the support for equipment renewal in the livelihood sector [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Actions - Confidence must be strengthened through clear policy positions to stabilize expectations and calibrate price signals, enhancing the transmission effect of monetary policy [4] - The central bank should set clear and singular policy goals, such as a 2% core CPI inflation target, to avoid conflicting objectives and ensure market confidence [4] - Total policy tools, particularly policy interest rates, are crucial for expanding domestic demand, with current rates at approximately 1.4% indicating room for further reductions [4] Group 3: Economic Recovery Indicators - The macroeconomic landscape in 2025 shows early signs of recovery, with improvements in stock markets, RMB exchange rates, and corporate profitability, although the recovery foundation remains fragile [5] - The average mortgage rate from 2018 to 2021 was 5.5%, with a 4.1% annual increase in second-hand housing prices, resulting in a near purchase cost of 1.4%, which is lower than the average rental yield of 2.2% [5] - From 2022 to 2025, the average mortgage rate decreased to 3.9%, but the annual growth rate of second-hand housing prices fell to -4.8%, leading to an increased purchase cost of 8.7%, making buying less advantageous compared to renting [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increasing uncertainty of global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is 0.80%; PPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is - 1.90% [8] - Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of 0.47%; M2同比 is 8.50%, with a环比 change rate of + 6.25%; Manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a环比 change rate of + 1.83% [9] - The US dollar index is 95.77, with a环比 decrease of 1.28 and a环比 change rate of - 1.32%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9335, with a环比 decrease of 0.020 and a环比 change rate of - 0.29%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.56, with a环比 increase of 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.36%; DR007 is 1.58, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.60%; R007 is 1.68, with a环比 increase of 0.17 and a环比 change rate of + 11.44%; The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a环比 increase of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55% [9] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [12][15][19] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and the local government bond issuance [29][32] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of cash bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [31][37][38] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][52] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [54][55] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [60][65]

【要闻速递】 今日周三(1月28日)亚盘时段，在周一价格触及历史高位后，两个市场均遭遇短期期货交易者的获利回 吐操作。四月交割的黄金期货最新上涨3美元，报每盎司5085.5美元。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 四月黄金期货多头的下一个上行目标是令收盘价站稳5250.00美元这一强劲阻力位上方。空头的近期下 行目标则是将期货价格打压至4750.00美元这一关键技术支撑位下方。首要阻力位为历史高点5145.20美 元，下一阻力位为5200.00美元;首要支撑位为隔夜低点5043.90美元，下一支撑位为5000.00美元。 美联储为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议于今日早间召开，将于周三下午早些时候结束，并 发布会议声明，同时美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。市场普遍预期，联邦公开市场委员 会将维持美国货币政策不变。尽管如此，与以往一样，市场仍会仔细研读会议声明以及鲍威尔在新闻发 布会上的讲话，从中寻找未来数月货币政策走向的任何线索，包括美联储官员对通胀形势的看法。 美国政府再度面临停摆风险。当前明尼阿波利斯局势动荡，参议院民主党人反对在未新增相关监管规程 的情况下为 ...

需求端三驾马车中，哪些因素可能支撑 2026 年一季度的经济表现？ 经济和市场会有开门红吗？20260127 摘要 预计 2026 年一季度实际 GDP 增速约为 5%左右，名义 GDP 增速约为 4.5%，GDP 平减指数为负 0.6%，较上一季度有所收窄，经济下行趋 势或将逆转。 投资是 2026 年一季度经济增长的关键驱动力，预计固定资产投资增速 将大幅回升，受益于政策支持和"十五"规划重大项目的前置。 预计 2026 年一季度消费将有所回升，商品消费增速预计提升至 3%- 4%，服务消费受益于春节效应和以旧换新补贴政策的推动。 当前货币政策强调高效灵活，降息降准概率较低，主要通过调整利率变 化速度来稳定汇率波动，除非二月数据超预期，否则短期内新增货币政 策工具可能性不大。 人民币汇率近期升值，央行主要通过调控节奏和波动率来稳定人民币兑 美元汇率，而非直接干预汇率方向。 2026 年财政政策预计更注重结构性调整，狭义赤字率维持在 4.0%左右， 广义赤字率可能下降，资金更多向科技创新和现代化产业体系倾斜。 2026 年资本市场前景乐观，股票最具潜力，关注 PPI 回升对企业盈利 的支撑，看好科技板块（人 ...